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The Anaheim Ducks and Detroit Red Wings have returned to the West Coast to play Game 5 of this Western Conference Quarterfinal Series after a split of the two games in Detroit over the weekend.
If Anaheim goes on to lose this series, the Ducks will undoubtedly look back at their inability to close out Game 4 as the likely turning point. Instead of returning home to the Honda Center with a chance to close out the Red Wings, the Ducks are fully aware they have to return to Detroit for a Game 6 on Friday night.
"We missed a great opportunity. Even though they outshot us and they had a good territorial edge, we had some Grade A chances when you have to put the puck in the net.
These are Grade A chances you have to score on, if you want to win They played very good, very hard, very desperate. I don't think quite frankly we had 20 players playing. We had some passengers." ---Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau
That quote alone should mean Boudreau will be expecting a much more complete effort from his troops tonight. Meanwhile, the Red Wings will be looking to emulate their play in the first 40 minutes of Game 2 and final 50 minutes of Game 4, which was their best work of the series thus far.
Furthermore, with Mike Babcock emphasizing the fact Detroit allowed too many "glorious" scoring opportunities in Game 4, I would be surprised not to see a real focus on a typical tight, defensive road game played by the Red Wings, attempting to limit the quality of Anaheim's scoring chances. Detroit has allowed an average of 13 goals through 4 games of this series (3.25/game). If that continues, it will be extremely difficult for the Red Wings to advance to Round 2 and a likely date with the Chicago Blackhawks.
Puck drops at 10:000 PM ET (NBCSN, TSN, Fox Sports Detroit).
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How important is Game 5
Courtesy of statistics pulled from the website
whowins.com, let's analyze the current probability of a Red Wing series victory given where they currently stand tied at 2-2 and playing Game 5 on the road:
STAT #1: - HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied 2-games-all @ HHVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order:
The team tied 2-games-all with site order VVHH (Detroit) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record:
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 83-174 (.382)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 85-132 (.392)
STAT #2 - HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied WLWL:
Considering win order; ignoring site order:
The team tied LWLW irrespective of site order (Detroit) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record:
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 35-30 (.538)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 38-27 (.585)
STAT #3 - HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Tied LWLW @ VVHH:
Considering win order; considering site order:
The team tied LWLW with site order VVHH (Detroit) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record:
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 15-16 (.484)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 15-16 (.484)
In essence, these numbers indicate that Anaheim holds an ever so slight advantage based on past NHL playoff history that they will be able to hold off the Red Wings.
Anaheim holds an advantage based on having home-ice advantage for the remaining three games (STAT #1). However, the statistics suggest Detroit holds an advantage based on tying the series in Game 4 of the series (STAT #2).
The final statistic basically suggests this series remains a toss-up given the past 31 NHL playoff series that have followed this exact same pattern.
But how important would a Game 5 win be for either team?
The odds of Anaheim winning the series rises to
81.5% (159-36) if they succeed tonight in Game 5. Meanwhile, Detroit's odds of winning the series rises to
75.9% (104-33).
Looks like the definition of a big game to me!
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Despite Mike Babcock being known for utilizing the line blender quite frequently with his forward unit, here are the expected line combinations and defense pairings:
DETROIT
Zetterberg - Datsyuk- Samuelsson
Franzen- Filppula- Cleary
Nyquist- Andersson- Brunner
Eaves- Emmerton- Bertuzzi
Bertuzzi, Tootoo (scratched)
Kronwall - Ericsson
Quincey - Smith
Lashoff- Kindl
White, Colaiacovo (scratched)
Howard (starting)
Gustavsson
ANAHEIM
Ryan - Getzlaf - Perry
Winnik - Koivu - Cogliano
Beleskey - Bonino - Selanne
Etem - Steckel - Palmieri
Fowler - Beauchemin
Sbisa - Lovejoy
Souray - Allen
Hiller (starting)
Fasth
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Word out of Grand Rapids is that
Jan Mursak has signed a two-year contract with Amur Khabarovsk, a team in the KHL. The deal is for one season with player option for the second season.
Mursak, has been plagued with injuries over the course of his short career with Detroit. Over three seasons with the Red Wings, he had two goals and two assists in 46 games.
He will complete the playoff run with the Grand Rapids Griffins, who begin their Western Conference Semi-Final against the Toronto Marlies on Friday night.
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