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How Much Is Subban Worth? |
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Prior to the NHL lockout, there was a widespread trend among NHL teams to lock good young players into multi-year deals that buy out all of their remaining RFA eligibility and perhaps even some UFA-eligible years.
With such a major premium being placed on defensemen in particular, the top restricted free agent defensemen see UFA-type dollar signs in their near future (even with a likely salary cap rollback in the next CBA).
The prime post-lockout test cases right now are restricted free agent Montreal defenseman P.K. Subban and Rangers' RFA Michael Del Zotto.
Right now, the benchmark deal is the Tyler Myers extension in Buffalo, which pays out a $5.5 million cap hit (and $10 million up front signing bonus) over seven years. A year from now, players such as Alex Pietrangelo may be using the Subban contract as their target benchmark.
The Canadiens reported pre-lockout "bridge deal" offer of a two-year, $5.5 million deal to Subban is nowhere even close to the numbers that are actually being discussed. The Havs know it will take more than that to get Subban signed. It has been widely rumored that Subban is seeking a contract in the neighborhood of what Drew Doughty got in Los Angeles (eight years, $56 million). Again, I see the Myers deal as more of a benchmark.
Some folks have suggested that other teams (Philadelphia always being a top candidate) could try to sign Subban to a last-minute offer sheet. I sincerely doubt that will happen. The offer sheet would be matched in a heartbeat --- unless some other team were to throw Shea Weber or Ryan Suter type of money at one the young defensemen, which would be such a ridiculous overpayment as to be unrealistic.
So it's going to come down to whether Subban and the Habs can get closer to the same page on contract details. In the meantime, here's another fair question: With a host of teams that would be interested in trading for Subban, how much is he worth on the trade market?
Obviously, the price would be very high. Once again using Philadelphia as the example, I think it would take Sean Couturier as the key player in a Subban deal. The way that Couturier, as a rookie no less, basically shut down Evgeni Malkin in the playoffs last year has many teams around the NHL seeing Selke Trophies in his not-too-distant future. Meanwhile, many think he can also blossom into a 20-25 goal scorer as a top-six center in addition to playing stellar defense.
In the case of a theoretical Flyers-Habs deal, the fact that Couturier is French-Canadian (his dad is former NHLer Sylvain Couturier) and is fully bilingual would also carry weight in the decision-making process. Whether it should or shouldn't be a consideration doesn't really matter for real-life practical purposes. In Montreal, it would matter.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Philadelphia will trade Couturier or acquire Subban. I haven't even heard anything in that regard, at least not to this point. Nothing appears to be close with any team, as the top priority for Montreal is to get Subban signed.
I mentioned Couturier as just an example of how high the trade-offer bar will be set on Subban to be anywhere close to the ballpark. Plain and simple, it's going to take a blockbuster swap of highly regarded, "untouchable" young players to pry Subban loose from the Habs; contract dispute or not.
Until Subban signs, look for the rumors -- which are already starting to heat up -- to reach a fever pitch.
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