Follow me on Twitter, or else: @rdcloutier
Speaking of Twitter, the place went bonkers on Monday evening when someone whom many, many people follow decided to say Sam Gagner signed a three-year contract extention with the Edmonton Oilers. Of course, it was a "real" rumor, because the person sending it put #CONFIRMED on the end of the message. Why do people do that? So very, very lame.
Sam Gagner hasn't been signed, and if what I'm hearing is correct, the two sides are far apart. This one might actually go all the way through arbitration, which could be a mess if you're the Oilers.
The issue? Term.
The Oilers want to sign Gagner for one season. Why?
- Under the current CBA, a two-year deal would mean Gagner could be a UFA on July 1, 2014. It's quite possible the UFA requirements won't change between CBA's, so the Oilers could completely lose the asset in two years. On a one-year deal, Gagner will be an RFA on July 1, 2013, meaning, the asset would be protected.
- As much as the Oilers don't want to lose the asset, they aren't convinced Gagner is the right guy to be the long-term #2 center. Signing him to a long deal at significant money could easily backfire.
- If the CBA does change in favor of the owners/teams, and Gags signs only a one-year deal, the Oilers could be in a more favorable bargaining position a year from now. In addition, Gagner will be a year older and perhaps the team and the player will have a clearer understanding of just how good (or bad) he is. Currently, Gagner is a player who is okay...has some amazing games, but also disappears for long stretches. It's hard to know at this time if he's a $3mil per season player or a $5mil per season player.
What Gagner is likely looking for is something in the way of five seasons, $4mil per. Which, if he has a great 2012/2013, would be a decent contract for the Oilers. But if the Oilers sign that kind of deal and Gagner goes Shawn Horcoff on them, they'll be stuck with another long, expensive deal. No one wants that.
Considering the Oilers have perhaps too many players at this time, I wouldn't rule out a trade occurring before Friday. Keep in mind if arbitration does happen, the Oilers can't trade Gagner for a year. They could walk away from the ruling, but I rather doubt they would. Gagner, considering his stats and the players he could be compared to, should receive something in the way of a $3.5mil per season contract.
If I was the Oilers, I'd show faith in the situation, and sign him to a long-term deal. I'd keep a NTC clause out of it though. If the Oil could strike up a five year deal at $3.75mil per average, with no NTC, it will be a good situation for both the team and the player.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»