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Some Thoughts on Martin Brodeur; Potential New Jersey // Ottawa Swap

June 29, 2012, 12:19 PM ET [52 Comments]
Travis Yost
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All of the rage in the hockey blogosphere right now is fixated in Newark, New Jersey, amidst reported that the financially-struggling New Jersey Devils may have no choice but to let future Hall of Fame goaltender Martin Brodeur walk away from the organization after nineteen years of unrivaled service.

The most troubling development here, really, is that the New Jersey Devils are going to let a short-term -- albeit expensive -- deal get in the way of preserving history and keeping arguably the most important player in franchise history around until his formal retirement. It's always a precarious situation when a once-elite and longtime player has watched his productivity regress, and things can grow hairy when the player is still turning over the same AAV he was in his prime.

That's the nature of the business, though. So few players are entitled to special treatment at the end of their careers -- we've often talked about how hockey is first and foremost a business, and that emotional attachment to certain individuals can be bottom-line suicide. Still, there's always an exception to the rule, and I think Martin Brodeur's earned said exception -- much like Daniel Alfredsson has with Ottawa. There's no need to price gouge, but it's simply understood that the franchise is rewarding the player for his career-long service rather than just future on-ice production.

Off-ice, Brodeur's earned this contract ten times over. On-ice -- well, that's another story. There's rumors that Martin Brodeur is asking for a deal at or around $6M per -- ironically enough, I've just recently talked about how these kinds of ugly contracts for league-average production in a sport where luck and volatility reign supreme can be hockey suicide.

In New Jersey's case, and as stated above, Brodeur's probably earned a deal that's going to pay him for the production he's put together in the past -- not for the splits he's going to toss up in the future. However, looking at the deal in a vacuum, Brodeur's ridiculous demands -- and New Jersey's equally ridiculous unwillingness to pay said demands -- could be a life-saver for an organization that's in dire straits when it comes to their financials.

With all of the drama surrounding ultra-talent Zach Parise, the freed up cap space could seriously help the New Jersey front office retain a player who is just entering the prime of his professional career. You know -- a player that's probably worth the AAV dollar he's seeking.

Brodeur, on the other hand, had trouble out-performing the likes of Nikolai Khabibulin, Ilya Bryzgalov, and Curtis Sanford -- just to name a few. Again, while GAA/save percentage metrics are raw measurements, it does help in shaping an idea on where said productivity was for each player. And, considering New Jersey's roster was comparable to Philadelphia's, and about twice as strong as the likes of Edmonton or Columbus, the above-mentioned isn't exactly encouraging.

In fairness, Brodeur's play in the post-season was pretty mesmerizing, giving us a look-back into the past at one of the best goalies of all-time. Two points, though: One, that kind of play wasn't // isn't sustainable against his career regular season and post-season splits, and two, those numbers (.917 save percentage, 2.11 GAA) aren't as impressive as one may suspect in last year's playoff format. See, I ran the quick math, and last year's average playoff splits included a .915 save percentage and 2.24 GAA. Again, Brodeur's right around there -- actually, slightly above -- but even the most ardent supporter of his game knows those numbers aren't long-term sustainable.

Which, of course, brings me to my next thought -- originally made earlier this week in the blog post about pricy goaltending. A case like Martin Brodeur -- a laughable, completely dismissable idea just a week ago -- should provide yet another example to stress the importance of player development between the crease. Elite goaltenders are a rare, rare commodity. League-average NHL goaltenders, though, are fairly common. And, if New Jersey had simply taken it's time to work with a younger piece while Brodeur was playing out the string, a stop-gap -- in a situation ugly for all parties involved -- could help ease the burden come next year.

Unfortunately, that's not the case for New Jersey at all. Johan Hedberg's(assuming he comes back; UFA J1) the only NHL-caliber G in the system right now, and he's coming up on forty years of age next summer. I do like prospect Scott Wedgewood, but I suspect he's not going to hit the NHL ranks for a bit of time.

At the very least, it opens the doors up for New Jersey to some interesting trade and UFA options. Concerning the latter, the market's pretty thin this year, and spending a ton of money -- as exhaustively referenced in this blog -- on a goalie that's not going to give you comparative production could prove disastrous.

On the trade front, Roberto Luongo's obviously the most desirable name, but New Jersey's reluctance to add any more big deals -- especially if they add Zach Parise back into the fold -- should be noted. He'd actually fit well as a player into New Jersey's system, as they're actually transitioning more and more into a style employed by Vancouver.

If I'm New Jersey, though, and I'm listening to Travis Yost [of course I'm listening to Travis Yost], I'm looking at all cost feasible options.

The Ottawa Senators are one of a few trade partners that could hammer out a pretty fair-market deal for stop-gap goaltending. Ben Bishop's long been considered NHL-ready since toiling in St. Louis' crowded ranks, and he's now facing the same uphill struggle against Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner in the nation's capital.

Many in Ottawa are rightfully skeptical of moving a goalie immediately due to potential depth issues, but that's an issue that can be addressed by Bryan Murray elsewhere. The Robin Lehner // Ben Bishop clusterfuck of awesome prospect net-minding is going to reach DEFCON 1 sooner rather than later, especially with Bishop's expiring deal. Any deal -- at least right now -- would have to make sense, and would probably green-light a smaller deal to shore up the now-hit G depth.

Since Ben Bishop is one of a few extremely low-cost solutions to New Jersey's potential goaltending woes should Martin Brodeur sign elsewhere, New Jersey would have to put together a pretty respectable package of assets in return. They shouldn't hesitate. Replacing Brodeur with equal or better production at 1/10th -- literally -- the cost is a no-brainer, and what the Devils don't have in dollars, they make up for in non-liquid assets.

Oh, and once again for emphasis: Albeit in a small sample, Ben Bishop's splits last season? 2.48 GAA, .909 save percentage -- directly comparable to the $11M combined paid out to the likes of Ilya Bryzgalov and Martin Brodeur. Bishop, for the record, made $650k, and he's largely considered the #3 option in Ottawa's ranks.

Bishop's just one of many names that probably could fill New Jersey's goaltending ranks alongside Johan Hedberg, and I'm entirely convinced that the tandem would put together the same production witnessed last season in New Jersey at a fantastic price. Cheap labor is often frowned upon, but between the pipes, it's an effective weapon -- so long as the players employed are not developmental disasters, which always remains a possibility when it comes to the production curves of young talent.

The best part of cheap labor, though, is that it doesn't tie-down teams in the future. Chicago's goaltending was a wreck. Toronto's goaltending was a wreck. Both are expected to address the issues in the immediate future. Philadelphia? Well, not to pile on Ilya Bryzgalov(and I still think he'll be solid for them), but the Flyers are virtually stuck with him. Forever.

So, Devils fans: I sympathize with your situation, and truthfully, would hate to see Martin Brodeur play anywhere else -- even as a general fan of the sport. With that said, separating emotion from reality and understanding there's serious potential upside to this developing situation in Newark.

Back with more tomorrow.

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