|
2012 NHL Draft Rankings: April 18 Top 30 + Thoughts |
|
|
|
|
|
I've been getting a couple tweets and e-mails lately asking for a revised Top 30, so I sat down last night and went through it and actually put together my thoughts on this. The CHL Playoffs are still in full swing so their will still be some changes over the next month as so, as they wrap up, the U18's finish, the Memorial Cup is awarded and various other activities commence. In fact, I'll be doing a significant run down starting in mid-May with a "Mock Draft" like last year, and going into depth on each of those 30 players in said mock, as well as My Top 30 a week or so before the Draft.
Coverage is going to be revved up over the next few weeks, the NHL Entry Draft is within sight.
Onto the list and some thoughts on it:
1 - Alex Galchenyuk, C
2 - Nail Yakupov, RW
3 - Mikhail Grigorenko, C
4 - Ryan Murray, D
5 - Radek Faksa, C
6 - Matt Dumba, D
7 - Jacob Trouba, D
8 - Filip Forsberg,
9 - RW Cody Ceci, D
10 - Griffin Reinhart, D
11 - Brendan Gaunce, C
12 - Teuvo Teravainen, LW
13 - Matt Finn, D
14 - Sebastian Collberg, RW/LW
15 - Olli Maatta, D
16 - Morgan Reilley, D
17 - Slater Koekkoek, D
18 - Tom Wilson, RW
19 - Zemgus Girgensons, C
20 - Derek Pouliot, D
21 - Oscar Dansk, G
22 - Colton Sissons, RW
23 - Stefan Matteau, LW
24 - Nicolas Kerdiles, C
25 - Martin Frk, RW
26 - Malcolm Subban, G
27 - Tomas Hertl, C
28 - Scott Laughton
29 - Henrik Samuelsson, RW
30 - Brady Skjei, D
Now, the first one that people will probably snort at, call me a moron for, and generally rip to shreds is that I've picked Alex Galchenyuk over Nail Yakupov. But let me get into my reasoning. Beyond Galchenyuk's lack of playing time this year, most pegged him, Ryan Murray, and Mikhail Grigorenko as the the only possible ones to dethrone Yakupov this season from that spot. I agreed. I saw Galchenyuk last year live about a half dozen or so times, with a handful of TV games as well. I don't have the best grasp on him or Yakupov in comparison to many Sarnia-based scouts or full-time scouts in general, but I think I have a fairly good understanding of both as players. The difference in skill is debatable between the two of them, with Yakupov being a clearly more explosive skater, with a lethal arsenal of shots. In that sense, Yakupov is a better player, and will in all an almost certainty, go first overall. But for me, I think Galchenyuk projects better long term with his NHL size and more conservative NHL game. It's not much, but it's a hunch.
Matthew Dumba has dropped to my second best defender, despite still showing a high end ability at the U18s as Team Canada's Captain. Despite a veeeeerrry high ceiling, he is a high risk-high reward player, as well as the concerns over his size. I'm not as worried about it as some, but let's call it an asterisk next to his name.
People ask what I think about Ryan Murray? I project him to play a role similar to that of current Predator, Ryan Suter. Murray will be a hell of a defender, who plays in all situations, puts up good numbers but is the glue of a D group, who makes a high risk-high reward player next to him all the better. Pair a Ryan Murray/Ryan Suter with a P.K. Subban/Dion Phaneuf/Shea Weber/Ryan Murphy and let them do their thing (roam offensively). Those types are quite hard to find, and I think more and more teams are looking for their 1B to their 1A.
I'm higher on Radek Faksa than most. Simply put, his development over the year has been on a high climb, and I'm impressed. His defense is far above that of most his age, he's become an impact player offensively on a very good Kitchener team, and this is his first season on a North American ice surface. Can you imagine as he gets more comfortable how much of an impact he'll make on both sides of the puck with his size? There's very little he can't do. I don't like to make wild predictions, but I have a strong feeling we might see Faksa make the jump to the pro game quicker than expected if his development continues to soar.
Got to watch a hell of a lot of Filip Forsberg in the past week, and came away impressed. He's not in that class with Galchenyuk/Yakupov, but he's a step below. He's a very crafty and shifty player with a very solid base. His release is quite good, and he follows the play better than I expected. All in all, there's definitely a bigger upside there than I first thought. And for those who wonder which position he plays? He looks like a winger to me, although he can line up down the middle should he be needed.
Moving on, Sebastian Collberg is unbelievably underrated. There are some questions about his size and ability to transfer his game to the NHL, but he was at times, the best Swede over the past week at the U18's.
People ask why I'm so high on Olli Maatta? You can't teach the poise and smarts that he brings on a consistent basis. Some players have higher ceilings because of their physical gifts, but very few can ever really learn to think the game at high levels. Maatta's flaws, and he does have them, are things that I find can be worked on. And as you get lower in a first round, getting a dependable Top Four Defender isn't such a bad thing.
Tom Wilson continues to climb, going at a PPG clip in the playoffs as one of the better Plymouth Whalers. Always gotta mention him, folks.
Last but not least, Scott Laughton is a huge climber, and for good reason. His teammate, Boone Jenner, fell a bit last year but I don't think teams will pass this guy up like they did Boone. Although not the biggest guy, Laughton gives it all every shift, is a terrific defensive player, and his offense is really starting to come around now. Not to mention there is some pedigree as a first round draft pick in the OHL Draft two years ago.
Join the Discussion:
»