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If I Ran the Oilers...ver. 124

March 11, 2012, 7:30 PM ET [123 Comments]
Richard Cloutier
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Tom Renney, hit the bricks. Kevin Lowe, you're fired. Steve Tambellini, you are the weakest link. Everyone get out. It's time to say hello to Team Cloutier. This is my team now, and it's about time someone stepped in to fix things.

A few rules before I get into this Sunday-inspired daydream:

1. I'm assuming the Oilers will finish 29th in the NHL and the draft will be done in order of the current NHL standings.

2. I'm going with the players signed, soon-to-be RFA and UFA lists also as they sit right now.

3. I'm assuming the salary cap will not change going into the new CBA.

4. The Oilers going into summer have six players on the roster who will become RFA's (Dubnyk, Gagner, Petry, Peckham, Barker, and Omark) and three UFA's (Smyth, Hordichuk and Petrell). Without any of those being re-signed, the Oilers approximately $23mil in cap space.

Step 1: The New Coach
For some reason, I think Marc Crawford makes sense. Call it a gut feeling. Crawford brings a fair amount of emotion as coach without being one of those old-school dinosaurs that the players all hate.

I am also doing what I can to acquire Doug Weight to be my Associate Head Coach. Weight is a brilliant individual and he's someone who knows pride and effort. Someday, Weight will be a tremendous Head Coach.

Step 2: New Leadership
Taylor Hall instantly becomes Captain of the team. Ryan Smyth and Ladislav Smid can wear the A's. While Hall is young and still has much to learn on and off the ice, this is his and Jordan Eberle's team now. Hall is very Messier-like, and Messier is the best captain in the history of professional sports. The message needs to be sent that sucking is no longer an option.

Step 3: The Draft
We all know Nail Yakupov will go 1st overall, so the Oilers drafting 2nd get their pick out of all the other prospects. The consensus #2 is Mikhal Girgorenko, but for every person who likes him, I can find someone who's concerned about his attitude. While the Oilers could certainly use a big moose of a center for their second line, the last thing they need is a player with a bad attitude.

This year's draft is interesting because there are perhaps as many as 10 players who could be picked in the #2 spot. Outside of Yakupov, this year's draft is a bit of a crap shoot. It's also now being considered a "weak" draft, because depth outside of the 1st round isn't strong. That's why you saw so many teams around the trade deadline deal their 2nd round picks...just not that great of a draft this year.

I'm looking to trade down from the #2 pick. Why? Because, as I said, it's a crap shoot in the Top 10, and perhaps the Oilers could acquire a RIGHT NOW defenseman or goaltender by dealing down

Pick #3 goes to Montreal. I like Price and Subban, but I can't see either being available.

Pick #4 is the Islanders. Pass.

Pick #5 Carolina. Here's a team we can do business with, and considering the needs of their team, they might absolutely like what I'm selling.

Oilers GM Steve Tambellini stated the Oilers are going defenseman shopping this summer. Outside of UFA Ryan Suter (who won't sign in Edmonton; I'd bet my paycheque on it), there are no great UFA's to be had. The only way the D improves is if the Oilers deal for it.

So here's the deal: Oilers deal the #2 Overall Pick and Linus Omark to the Carolina Hurricanes for the #5 Overall Pick and defenseman Jamie McBain.

Columbus takes Yakupov at #1. At #2 Carolina gets a big potential center in Girgorenko. At #3 the Habs take Swedish winger Filip Forsberg. At #4, the Islanders take defenseman Ryan Murray.

With the 5th overall pick, the Edmonton Oilers select Edmonton Oil Kings defenseman Griffin Reinhart. Yep. Why Reinhart over Matt Dumba? Size and character. The Oilers own the Oil Kings, and they know this Reinhart kid pretty well now. He's got everything you ever wanted in a future star defenseman. His only knock is foot speed, but the Oilers will work with him on that.

At the draft, I'm finding deals for Eric Belanger and Nikolai Khabibulin, who need to go away. Aside from his face-off greatness, Belanger has been a disaster and a distraction for the team. The return for either does not matter.

Before going to the next step of the process, I think we need to remind ourselves what the major issues on the Oilers are.

Issue #1 - Defense. It's bad. Bad physically, and bad with respect to being able to move the puck out of the defensive zone.

Issue #2 - Goaltending. Dubey isn't good enough to be a starter.

Issue #3 - Forwards are too small. Oilers need to add size up front.

Step 4: Re-signings
1. The Oilers re-sign Lennart Petrell. Decent depth forward who throws hits. Can likely be signed to a two-year, $800k per season deal.

2. Of course, you know Ryan Smyth must be re-signed. Question is, for what? Hey, everyone is ripping on Smyth's season right now, but look at his stats and the fact he's staying healthy all season. His scoring pace really isn't bad. So I'm giving him 2 years, $2.5mil per.

3. Theo Peckham and Cam Barker are not given qualifying offers. Darcy Hordichuk is also given a "We'll Miss you" card. See ya boys.

4. Sam Gagner is a tricky re-signing. Looking at his numbers and comparable players, Gagner has moved himself into $4mil per season territory. At that amount, I'm gonna try locking him in long-term. So let's say five years, $4mil per. I throw in a promise he isn't gonna be dealt no matter how much people suggest he should be. The kid would be much better if he knew his future was solid here.

5. You think Gagner is a tough re-sign, consider Jeff Petry. He started 2011/2012 looking completely over his head in the NHL. By the last 30 games of the season, Petry became the Oilers best defenseman. What I'd doing is giving Petry a short-term deal to see if his great play was real or imagined. One year deal, $2.5mil. Short enough deal so he won't become UFA next summer (unless the new CBA is a complete revolution).

Oilers going into free agency look something like this at this point:

L1: Hall - Nuge - Eberle
L2: Paajarvi - Gagner - Hemsky
L3: Smyth - Horcoff - Jones
L4: Eager - Lander - Petrell
extra: Hartikainen

D1: Smid - Petry
D2: Whitney - Schultz
D3: Sutton - McBain
extras - Potter, Teubert

G1:
G2: Dubnyk

Step 5: Free Agency
Looking at the roster above, it's not perfect, but it's not too bad either. Much depends on Ryan Whitney's and Ales Hemsky's ability to bounce back. I am nervous about the forwards, as they still seem too small. At some point the very deserving Teemu Hartikainen needs to work himself onto the roster.

On D, if everyone stays healthy, this should be the best D6 in a few years. If things don't work out, the Oilers will have Klefbom, Reinhart, Musil, Fedun, Davidson, Marincin or Gernat coming. Four of these players (Klefbom, Reinhart, Musil and Gernat) are locks to make the NHL someday.

So the only real UFA shopping needed is for a goalie. Yikes.

Are there any viable options?

1. Josh Harding - Has okay numbers when he plays, but he's been a career back-up, and he's experienced some huge injuries along the way. If this is best option, I'm scared.

2. Jonas Gustavsson - The Monster looked good as a rookie, and hasn't been great since then. At best, he could be for the Oilers the New Tommy Salo. At worse? He could be the new Tommy Salo.

3. Brent Johnson - This actually might be the Oilers best option. Johnson is a solid but unspectacular goalie who has a deeper resume than either Harding or Gustavsson.

All three cats could be interested in coming to the Oilers simply because in Edmonton, they know they'd play 40+ games.

Final Thoughts

- Of course, the Oil need to offer Ryan Suter a big, stupid contract, but Suter won't come here. I fully expect he'll remain in Nashville.

- Dennis Wideman and Matt Carle are interesting UFA defensive options.

- None of the available UFA forwards excite me much. Pass.


Obviously, this isn't an Oilers team can rip up the standings, but the issues with the team have everything to do with coaching, so changing that in itself might be enough to change the fortunes of the team. As the season continues, the Oil will need to keep a close eye on goaltending...perhaps if a deal needs to happen, it will be the Oilers pick in 2013 and/or players and prospects to bring in an actual name-brand guy.
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