Somedays being a small fish in a big pond sucks.
There is much more to the Ales Hemsky situation that what's apparent and obvious to the masses. And just what do the masses know?
- Ales Hemsky becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1st if the Oilers don't re-sign him first.
- Hemsky is playing like a man who wants to be dealt.
- The Oilers don't seem that interested in re-signing him.
- Rumors are all over the place about where Hemsky could end up, and what the return in a deal could be.
- Hemsky has said in interviews that he wants to stay in Edmonton, but he sure doesn't seem too enthusiastic when he says it.
So there I was on Friday afternoon, driving along listening to Team 1260's Jason Gregor and TSN's Ryan Rishaug debate the Hemsky situation. Gregor earlier in his show interviewed Hemsky, and during that interview, Hemsky indicated a want to stay in Edmonton, but that Oilers management have yet to offer him a contract extension. If this is true, obviously, Oilers management have no desire to include Hemsky in their future plans. Rishaug countered that he has knowledge that Oilers management have spoken with Hemsky's people, and the possibility of a contract extension has been discussed. Could they both be right? Yep. It's extremely possible Oilers GM Steve Tambellini spoke with Hemsky's agent, and didn't like what he had to hear...so since then, the Oilers have not offered a counter-proposal because what they think Hemsky is worth is too far away from what the Hemsky camp wants.
A day or two before I heard this discussion, I heard Oilers Now Host Bob Stauffer debate the merits of the Oilers offering Hemsky a four year, $5mil per season contract extension. Where this number comes from is Stauffer's estimation of what Hemsky could ask for and get this summer as a UFA. I'm not sure he can command that sort of money, but Stauffer knows more than I do, so I'll take his word for it.
All things considered, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. It sounds like everyone involved in this situation is acting dumb. It's time for me the be the Voice of Reason, yet again. Let me get my cape.
Gregor mentioned today that the Oilers should attempt to re-sign Hemsky because Top 6 forwards are rare, and the Oilers have no one to replace him. Hmmm. How many points does he have this season? What is his injury history over the last three years like? It seems to me the Oilers have one guy in the minors who could easily replace what Hemsky brings. His name is Linus Omark.
It would be one thing if we were talking about Ales Hemsky, motivated and healthy 70 points per season guy. But that's not who we have here, friends. What we have is a pouty, disinterested, unhappy, often injured Hemsky, who looks more like a 40 point per season guy. If I had to choose between Hemsky's poor effort 40 points and, let's say, Omark's frantic level of compete 40 points, I'm going with Omark. Plus, Omark will cost you $1mil per season. Hemsky, if Stauffer is right, is five times the price. Paying him that much makes absolutely no sense.
Obviously the Oilers are going to deal Hemsky, and the real tragedy in all of this is that Hemsky is the only one who could have taken himself off of the trade block. One only needs to look at Sam Gagner for an example of a player who has played himself into the Oilers future. I'm not talking about his eight point game either. I'm talking about Gagner willingly getting his ass kicked in a fight to protect Taylor Hall when none of Edmonton's tough guys were motivated enough to do it. Sammy's heart has made him part of the Oilers future. Hemsky's lack of heart is getting him dealt very soon.
How bad are things getting? The people who mentioned all the Oilers will get for Hemsky is a 2nd round pick...the guys I bashed for underestimating Hemsky and the market...well now, I'm starting to think they're right. Detroit pretty much publicly declared this week that while they once were interested in Hemsky, they aren't anymore, because they want to add someone who competes. I'm sure some team is going to make a deal for Hemsky because talent is talent...but his value is dropping like a rock. The longer Steve Tambellini waits, the worst the deal is going to be for the Oilers.
I have a theory, if you want to hear it.
First thing is, I think Hemsky, if he is moved by himself (no other draft picks or players included from Edmonton) will end up in Nashville. The return will be Jon Blum and a draft pick. I wish it was a 1st round pick, but I'm not convinced Hemsky would bring that anymore. Maybe a 2nd rounder, which is disgraceful considering how talented Hemsky is. The market is what it is, and Hemsky is scaring people off.
The Oilers will make this deal when Linus Omark is ready to go. As you may know, Omark broke his foot a few months ago, and he's just now returning to action in OKC. I spent much of the season wondering why Omark, who was banished to the AHL only after five games this season, didn't return to Sweden when he had the chance. Perhaps he was told before he was sent down to be patient because sooner than later, a roster spot would open up for him. A player like Omark needs to play in the Top 6 and needs to get powerplay time to make sense. With Hemsky here, the Top 6 in Edmonton was packed with people ahead of Omark on the depth chart. If the Oilers keep Hemsky, I'd play him ahead of Omark, even if he is pouting the whole time.
The Oilers do need to be mindful of their financial picture. Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will all be $5mil+ players in a few seasons. The way Hall and Ebs are looking, they'll be 6 or 7 million dollar guys. The Oilers are still on the hook for the Shawn Horcoff overpayment. So if you have Hall, Eberle, Nuge, Hemsky and Horcoff all making $5mil+, you could have half of the team's salary tied up in five guys. That simply isn't feasible unless all five are carrying the team. While Hall, Eberle and Nuge have that level of talent, Horcoff and Hemsky don't.
What the Oilers, like all other teams, are faced with is the knowledge that they only can have so many high-end contracts, and those contracts need to be spread throughout all positions; not just on forwards. If Ryan Whitney recovers health-wise and play-wise, he's a $5mil per season re-sign. Ladislav Smid is playing himself to a significant future contract increase. Tom Gilbert has shown himself as being worth his $4mil per. Sam Gagner won't need too many more eight point games before his contract size increases. Devan Dubnyk if he becomes starter and plays well should also come in at $3mil to $4mil per. Horcs, Ebs, Hall, Nuge, Smid, Gibby, Dubey, Gags and Whitney...9 guys who all could be $4mil or more per. Fair estimate would suggest nine guys will get paid 65% to 75% of the Oilers cap cash. Can we afford a long-term $5mil per season Hemsky deal if he isn't a key performer on the team? No.
The Save Hemsky camp will tell you his play will improve if he knows he's staying, and his play is improving has he heals from surgery. Perhaps they are right. Problem is, Hemsky had a window of opportunity to make his case, and he's blown it. The window of opportunity to make a reasonable deal to move Hemsky is quickly closing. If the Wings have figured it out, chances are other teams will soon come to the same realizations.
Tambellini and company need to get this over with, even if the return is underwhelming. My Spidey-Sense tells me a deal is done, and the only hold-up is Omark's health. Once he's ready to go, Hemsky will go.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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