It is back to the regular season routine as the NHL season hits the true dog days, dog days that can indicate danger. The time post All-Star break through the first week of March can really present a challenge to NHL teams. The playoffs are still off in the distance, the bumps and bruises are a little more pronounced and each team has to find their own way through to come out ready for the second season. Oh yeah... and there is that little thing called the NHL Trade Deadline. Given all that, you might be able to make the case that the key to winning the Central Division may be... the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Let’s take a look at the Central Division contenders and analyze the remaining schedule in standings order…
Detroit - Detroit stands first in the West with 67 points and 32 games remaining, 18 at home and 14 on the road. The Red Wings’ longest road trip is four games, starting right out of the All-Star break, four games from 1/31 through 2/6. Their longest home stand is six games from 2/8 – 2/19. The Red Wings have a favorable schedule, considering their home record of 20-2-1 (no typo there) they can run away with the division (and the conference) if they are able to maintain that pace, however, their sub-.500 road record may be a cause for concern, especially considering they have two west coast roadies left. Another potential positive for the Red Wings is 3 games remaining against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Other remaining divisional games features three against NSH (2h, 1a) and CHI (2h, 1a) and only one left against St. Louis at Scottrade Center. Detroit’s record against the Central currently stands 9-5-0. The Red Wings remain the odds-on favorite to win the division due to their home dominance, if they get their road record together, they will run away with the conference.
St. Louis - St. Louis stands fourth in the West with 65 points and 33 games remaining, 13 at home and 20 on the road. The Blues’ longest road trip is seven games from 3/11 – 3/25, they also have a six gamer from 2/23 – 3/3. Their longest home stand is three games from 3/6 – 3/10 and from 3/31 – 4/6. The Blues have more home wins that the Red Wings do. Surprised? Yeah, me too… They have quietly built a 21-3-4 home record… that’s the good news... the bad news? 20 of their last 33 are on the road, where their record is 8-10-3. Ken Hitchcock has this team fully bought in to his system and if he is able to get this team to .500 on the road, they will make the playoffs with potential home ice. Divisional games remaining… three against NSH (1h, 2a) one against DET (at home) and four against CHI (1h, 3a). The best news for St. Louis may be that they have four games left (2h, 2a) against the woeful Blue Jackets. The team has a 5-5-2 record against the Central Division. The Blues will also enjoy an extended All-Star break as they do not return to action until Friday night. They will make the playoffs, their road record will determine their seed.
Nashville - Nashville stands fifth in the West with 64 points and 32 games remaining, 15 at home and 17 on the road. The Predators’ longest road trip is four games from 3/12 – 3/18, their longest home stand is four games from 2/21 – 2/27. The Predators have the best balance of home and away records of the four contenders. They are 16-7-3 at home, 14-9-1 on the road. They came into the All-Star break as the hottest team in the league, winning nine of their last ten and eighteen of their last 23. While all the Central s dealing with the break, it will be most interesting to see how the young Predators come out of the post break gate. An important game against Minnesota and a rematch against Philly, both on the road will tell the tale quickly. With no super long road trips (like Chicago and St. Louis) and only one trip left to the West Coast, the travel schedule is not as tough as years past. Divisional games remaining include three against DET (1h, 2a) STL (2h,1a) and CHI (2h, 1a)… but alas… the team has already gotten 11 of the possible 12 points from Columbus and has finished the season series against the Blue Jackets, a prime reason the Preds have posted an 11-2-2 record against the Central. The Predators are in a prime position to capture a top four spot in the conference and certainly has the capability to take the division should St. Louis and Detroit’s home records come down to earth.
Chicago - Chicago stands sixth in the West with 64 points and 32 games remaining, 12 at home and 20 on the road. Their longest road trip is nine (that’s not a typo) games, starting right out of the All-Star break from 1/31 – 2/18. The Blackhawks’ longest home stand is three games from 2/19 – 2/23 and 3/9- 3/13. Chicago is the only Central Division team to not come into the All-Star break hot, that is a relative term however as the Blackhawks did go 5-3-2 in their last ten heading into the break, although, two consecutive losses to Nashville put them behind the Predators in the standings. Chicago is the only other team with a winning home record (besides NSH) among the contenders. They will need to continue that as they launch that nine game road trip that will take the team to Western Canada, Colorado, California, Phoenix, Nashville, New York and Columbus, a road trip from hell that could be a prime determining factor in where the Blackhawks finish in the division. Divisional games remaining include three against NSH (1h,2a) and DET (1h,2a), four against STL (3h,1a). The Blackhawks have two games remaining against the Blue Jackets, both at Nationwide. They have posted a 7-3-2 record inside the Central Divisionr. I fully expect the Blackhawks to be in the playoffs, that is a no brainer unless something goes horribly wrong in the Windy City.
All-in-all, I expect all four Central teams to make the playoffs, a factor in this may end up being how each team does against Columbus. As stated above, Nashville has collected 11 of 12 possible points from CBJ, Detroit has collected 4 of 6 , Chicago has collected 8 of 8, and St. Louis has collected 4 of 4. The Blue Jackets may be playing out the string, but they could be a rather large key in determining who wins the Central Division.
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Let’s talk about Ryan Suter. In all of the hubbub over his statements on Friday there were quite a few things lost in the mix. To revisit… during his All-Star media availability several reporters asked him directly (some would say “baited”) if Suter would sign a new contract before the trade deadline. Suter’s response was simply that he didn’t think so because he didn’t want to be a distraction.
That’s all it took for Twitter, bloggers and the mainstream media to get whipped up into a frenzy and worse... get the story wrong. Everyone exploded and like a bad game of “Whisper Down the Lane” by the time it got to Sunday, Barry Melrose was on NHL Network saying that Suter would definitely be leaving the Predators. Suter took unwarranted criticism from bloggers across the blogosphere, including locally that his lack of signing was going to be a distraction. This despite the subsequent quotes… in the same media availability that stated… "Nashville is a great place to live and raise a family" and when asked if he would like to play for another team Suter was quoted as saying "I don't think about where I want to be. I focus on being a good player on our team. The time will come for all that, and now is not the time. Our team is doing very good right now, and hopefully we can go and get that piece we might need for the playoffs."
That doesn’t sound like a player that is in a hurry to get out of Music City.
There’s a couple of points I’d like to make regarding this whole situation. Suter took a lot of heat for the “distraction” comment and I have to admit, on first blush, it bothered me a bit. Then I thought about it. The distraction goes far beyond the media. Pred fans want him signed, David Poile wants him signed, his teammates want him signed. If anything, Suter’s statement that he wouldn’t sign until the season was done stopped the game of “Will He or Won’t He.” You can make the case that this distraction is now gone…
The other distraction would’ve been to the GM. Given Ryan’s reputation as a team guy, I can see where he would think that these negotiations could be distracting the front office from focusing on getting the piece or two this team needs to go from playoff participant to cup contender. Suter’s quote (from NHL.com) "If we're winning, I hope that David will maybe go out and get that extra piece; work the other way rather than deal me, and we'll take care of the rest later. I tell David, and I'm telling you right now, straight up, that I like it in Nashville and it's a great place to live."
Still doesn’t sound like a player that is looking to get out of town…
I have to wonder what impact this whole media generated kerfuffle will have on Ryan Suter himself. He is a reserved individual and does appear to like his privacy. Say what you want about Nashville, but our fair city is very used to treating our stars like people, with respect and courtesy, we’ve been doing it with country music stars for years.
It was a courtesy and respect that was sorely lacking in what happened on Friday…
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Random Notes
- OK… 108.8 mph??? Really??? Zdeno Chara is simply amazing.
- Lost in the shuffle of the Suter discussion is the fact that Shea Weber also said he plans on working his contract after the season is complete.
- Congratulations to Pekka Rinne, named second star of the week last week in the NHL.
- According to the Philly papers, Kimmo Timonen was spending a lot of time talking up Philly to Ryan Suter. That same article (from Sam Carchidi) also says that the consensus among NHL GM’s is that Suter will not be traded.
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