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Meltzer's Musings: Draft Night Round 1 |
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Defense is the Flyers' biggest long-term positional need in their farm system. However, despite the fact the Flyers had the ability to choose any defenseman in the draft not named Adam Larsson, it is hard to argue with the team going the "best available player" route by selecting Drummondville center Sean Couturier with the eighth overall pick of the draft.
Last fall, it would have been a shock if the big pivot had fallen out of the top three. Many thought he'd battle to go first overall. He was set back by a bout with mono that sapped his strength. As a player who was a "name" prospect a full year before his draft eligibility, Couturier got over-scouted a bit and his flaws (namely his skating) got picked apart after he'd been touted to the moon earlier.
As a 17-year-old, Couturier led the QMJHL in scoring (41 G, 55 A, 96 PTS), becoming the youngest player since Sidney Crosby accomplished the feat. Even more impressively, Couturier was already routinely drawing defensive assignments against other teams' top lines. This past year, he was the lone draft-eligible player to earn a roster spot on Team Canada at the 2011 World Junior Championships. Expectations were built so high that it wasn't too surprising that his stock fell a bit when he wasn't quite able to live up to them.
It has been said that, at the NHL level, Couturier will be more Jordan Staal than Eric Staal. He may never lead his NHL team in scoring but he should be a shutdown center who also puts up decent (and timely) offense. Couturier still needs to add strength to his frame but, eventually, the 6-foot-4 center should end up playing at about 215 to 220 pounds as he fills out. Right now, he is very lanky.
Combined with the acquisition of Brayden Schenn, the selection of Couturier now gives the Flyers two centers with significant long-term NHL upside to (eventually) mitigate the trades of Mike Richards and Jeff Carter. All-Star selection Claude Giroux is just 23, and Danny Briere still has plenty of good hockey left in him. Even without Richards and Carter, the Flyers should be just fine down the middle in the years to come.
To be totally honest, Adam Larsson was the player in the draft whom I most coveted for the Flyers. I think he is going to be close to a franchise defenseman in the NHL, and that is even harder to find than a big, skilled center who is also defensively sound. Now Larsson (who, like Couturier was a victim of over-scouting this past season) is going to be a New Jersey Devil after he slipped to the fourth spot. But even though the Flyers were unable to move up, they still came away with someone who should prove to be the type of player that every contending team needs.
It has been said that Couturier could conceivably challenge for an NHL spot right away next season. I see no need to rush him, though. Give him an extra season in the Q and another WJC tournament. There is no such thing as being too ready for the NHL.
In selecting Couturier, the Flyers bypassed several defensemen who may be a cut below Larsson right now but have significant NHL potential.
Most notably, big and mobile righthanded shooting defensemen Dougie Hamilton (who went to the Stanley Cup champion Bruins one pick later) would have been an equally justifiable selection had the Flyers bypassed Couturier. The only red flag on Hamilton that jumped out at me: In an otherwise glowing recommendation published on NHL.com, Hamilton's junior coach, Marty Williamson, noted that the youngster "just has to understand the details (of the game) and he's going to be a very good pro."
When a coach speaks of attention to detail, he is referring to a player's demonstrated hockey sense -- awareness of situations on the ice such as when to pinch or stay back and when to go for a hit and when to use body positioning. Some young NHL players learn these things over time, others don't.
Ryan Murphy has the highest offensive upside of any defenseman in this year's draft. His lack of size and question marks about his play in his own end of the ice caused him to fall to Carolina at the 12th pick. A year ago, Cam Fowler tumbled in the first round and he is already making teams that bypassed him question that decision. Murphy, who is also perceived by some as being cocky and individualistic, will have plenty of motivation to prove his critics wrong.
Tough and big-hitting Duncan Siemens (11th pick, Colorado) is the opposite of Murphy: no real offensive upside at the NHL level but a chance to become a top four defensive defenseman if he plays under control. Nathan Beaulieu (17th overall, Montreal) is not nearly as physical as Siemens and has a little lower offensive upside than Murphy, but has better size and is a very mobile defenseman.
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It is impossible to predict whom the Flyers will take with their third-round pick and other remaining selections. They may also opt to trade up into the second round. I have heard from a scouting source that the club likes Boston University defenseman Adam Clendening (ranked 45th among North American skaters by Central Scouting). However, there is a host of decent prospects still on the board if the Flyers are inclined to move up. Also keep in mind that a player whom the team has higher-rated may fall to their spot.
In round two, most or all the following players should hear their names called: Brandon Saad, Tomas Jurco, Boone Jenner, Rocco Grimaldi, Scott Mayfield, Ty Rattie, Victor Rask, Alexander Khoklachev, Dmitri Jaskin, David Musil, Seth Ambroz and top-rated goalie prospect John Gibson.
It will be interesting to see where undersized Russian winger Nikita Kucherov ends up going in the draft. I suspect he could fall pretty deep. Kucherov the guy who tore apart the Under-18 WJC this year, scoring 21 points in 7 games. But there is also the KHL factor to consider as well as the fact that the player is about the size of Danny Briere.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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