Well here we are again friends. The 1st Round of the NHL Playoffs. What is different this time however is that I'm not breaking down a series against the Detroit Red Wings or San Jose Sharks. Yes, the Chicago Blackhawks and Nashville Predators will square off this time around.
Once again, I have what I consider a pretty complete (and almost too in-depth) preview of the series. Now, this is not for the faint of heart. I love to delve into the stats on these things and have a FULL break down below. That said, as usual I have broken the sections up that way if you just want to see my prediction you can skip to that, however I do feel that if you slog through this whole column you will have a greater understanding of the series at hand than most.
A note to you Chicago fans stopping in that may have never read my work. Believe it or not I don't root/cheer for the Preds. I cover them on a professional level and am a fully credentialed media member in Nashville. As such, I feel you will find this space to be an unbiased view of the series. So bear that in mind as you read, and hopefully enjoy, this column as the series progresses.
Without further ado, let's break this series down to the nitty gritty.
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The STATS
I love stats and feel that they can certainly help you see the trends of a given team. That said, remember that all of these stats are for the regular season. Things are different in the playoffs. So take these statistics with the proper amount of grains of salt.
Overall Record:
CHICAGO - 52-22-8 (112 pts) 2nd in the West
NASHVILLE - 47-29-6 (100 pts) 7th in the West
Home Record:
CHICAGO - 29-8-4 (62 pts)
NASHVILLE - 24-14-3 (51 pts)
1. Dustin Byfuglien -7
2. John Madden -2
3. Tomas Kopecky 0
NSH
1. Martin Erat -7
2. Joel Ward -5
3. David Legwand -5
Odds and Ends Stats
A #7 Seed has not defeated a #2 seed in either Conference since 2006 when Colorado defeated Dallas.
Jason Arnott has scored only 3 of his 19 total goals on the road this season. He owns the team high 16 home goals this season. By comparison, former Predator Ryan Jones had 4 road goals with Nashville. Jordin Tootoo has just 1 home goal. By comparison, current Milwaukee Admiral Dave Scatchard had 2 in his 16 games up with Nashville this year.
Patric Hornqvist scored 17 of his 30 goals on the road. Shea Weber scored 12 of his 16 goals on the road.
The Blackhawks are more balanced in the home and away goals department. The one that somewhat stands out is Kris Versteeg having 12 road goals opposed to 8 at home. Tomas Kopecky has scored 9 of his 10 goals on the road. Dave Bolland has all 6 of his goals at the United Center.
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QUESTIONS SURROUNDING THE SERIES
The Questions for Chicago:
- Can the goaltending be good enough consistently?
- How much impact will injuries to D-men have?
- Will Chicago try to "Run and Gun" or be more physical and counter attack?
- Will Hawks head coach Joel Quenneville be able to break the Barry Trotz forecheck/dump and chase style?
- Will Chicago be able to use their superior special teams units (compared to NSH) to win a game… or two?
Chicago fans, if you have something you would like to add to this portion it would be greatly appreciated. You know your team better than I do and would receive full credit after I make the additions. Thanks in advance.
The Questions For Nashville:
- Will they be able to record their first road victory in the playoffs?
- Will Barry Trotz make the necessary in-series adjustments to produce close wins?
- Will Pekka Rinne live up to regular season form under the playoff pressure?
- Can Patric Hornqvist wreak his havoc coming back from injury (and does he return for Game 1)?
- Will the depth scoring be there that is needed to produce playoff wins?
- Can the Preds suddenly solve their special team's woes (24th PP and 28th PK)?
- Will Nashville learn to lock down the 3rd period? (87 GA (7th worst)/ 71 GF, 4 comeback losses when leading after 2, )
- Can the regular season discipline be maintained? (8.7 PIM/G, 1st in NHL)
- Can home ice live up to the billing? (28th in home GF with 102)
- 1st goal will be more important than ever. (2nd in reg. season with .800 W%)
- With Denis Grebeshkov able to return from injury, do you scratch a D-man? Should Klein or Franson sit to make room for him?
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FELDER'S FOCUSES TO ROUND 1
Here are the things I feel will be the difference in this series:
I start with the offense. Chicago clearly has the edge there. Look at the fact that 5 Chicago forwards have 50+ points compared to just two for Nashville. Also, we have yet to see how well Patric Hornqvist can play coming back from his injury and that is the Predators top scorer in the regular season. Without him, the offense certainly loses a bit of its' punch. Chicago has speed to burn in the forward corp and creativity out the yazoo.
On defense, I give Nashville the edge. If Chicago had a fully healthy blueline this would be a slight Nashville edge, but for now I feel the Preds have a better corp 1-6. Weber and Suter will not be overlooked, and heavily depended on to carry the with against the Chicago top lines. On the other side of the ice, Chicago has guys like Seabrook and Keith to lead the way and if they get Campbell back at some point in the series (and he's effective) that can tip things more even on the scale.
With goaltending, many call it a toss-up and it's hard to disagree. The one thing for me here is that Pekka Rinne has show he can carry his team in low scoring games down this stretch. Anttii Niemi hasn't had very many games with a lack of goal support. It will be interesting to see how he withstands the playoffs mentally if his team isn't providing the normal cushion. Peks is used to the pressure of being the guy keeping his club in it, but I wonder if Niemi can stand that test or not.
When I look at coaching I give Chicago the edge by the mere fact that Joel Quenneville has won a playoff road game and an entire series. Don't get me wrong, Barry Trotz is a great coach… in the regular season. He's yet to prove himself in the NHL playoffs, but a 2nd Round appearance will be a solid start towards proving he's not going to be labeled "one and done" his entire NHL career.
As I looked over the stats above, a few things really stood out to me that may be more unconventional things to ponder. Chicago was 2nd in the league with 1st period goals. Nashville has notoriously gotten off to slow starts plenty of times this season and they absolutely can not afford to do so against the Hawks. When I look at the home goals stats (CHI 6th with 134, NSH 28th with 102) it causes me to have further concern for Nashville. Another key thing to me are the things I call the "detail stats". This includes faceoffs (CHI 3rd with 52.4%, NSH 20th with 49.2%), how many hits players have in a season, and how many blocked shots. In all 3 categories, Chicago has an edge. This means they are more physical than one would think. Lastly, I have a real concern for Nashville since Chicago averaged the least amount of shots on goal per game this season. The Preds have a real finishing problem and getting fewer chances to do so than normal spells trouble with a capital T.
With all that said, I think the intangibles are there for a very spirited and hard fought series. Nashville may surprise the Hawks a bit. I think the Predators will get their first ever road playoff victory, however, not their first series win. I'm going with Chicago in 7 games.
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On Wednesday I will post my other series predictions. That column will be MUCH shorter than this one. Also, I wanted to let everyone know that I do plan on having a Cover It Live blog for Game 1 on Friday night. It will be right here on this space and I invite all to join in, chat about the game as it happens, and just enjoy the playoffs together.
Thanks so much for reading this and all the other various things I've posted this season. We are in the stretch run here so stick with me till the end.
Till next time, take care.
Questions, comments, and criticisms can be sent to [email protected] if you wish to contact me personally.
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