There is lot more than just projected points that go into figuring out the playoff chances of any given team.

For example, last season at the end of November, 7 of the 8 teams in the Eastern Conference that held playoff spots at that time, held on to them and made the playoffs.

Sites like SportClubStats do a pretty good job of projecting playoff chances using the season schedule and scores for past games, simulation of the season, home ice advantage and many other factors.
- Doppleganger

I totally agree, just commenting on the method used in this thread

I usually add SportsClubStats numbers to my projected standings, and will do so for next week.

East Rank	Team	Points	GP	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	New York Rangers	27	20	0.675	111	93.1%
2	Boston Bruins	29	22	0.659	108	96.3%
3	Florida Panthers	28	23	0.609	100	79.5%
4	Pittsburgh Penguins	32	24	0.667	109	93.9%
5	Philadelphia Flyers	29	23	0.630	103	85.8%
6	Toronto Maple Leafs	30	24	0.625	103	70.2%
7	Buffalo Sabers	27	23	0.587	96	65.1%
8	Washington Capitals	25	22	0.568	93	49.5%
9	New Jersey Devils	25	22	0.568	93	40.5%
10	Tampa Bay Lightning	24	22	0.545	89	39.7%
11	Ottawa Senators	24	23	0.522	86	20.5%
12	Montreal Canadiens	24	24	0.500	82	39.1%
13	Winnipeg Jets	22	23	0.478	78	23.6%
14	Carolina Hurricanes	20	25	0.400	66	2.1%
15	New York Islanders	16	21	0.381	62	1.2%

West Rank	Team	Points	GP	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	San Jose Sharks	27	20	0.675	111	90.9%
2	Detroit Red Wings	29	22	0.659	108	91.2%
3	Minnesota Wild	29	23	0.630	103	65.2%
4	Chicago Blackhawks	31	24	0.646	106	79.1%
5	Phoenix Coyotes	27	22	0.614	101	73.4%
6	St. Louis Blues	28	23	0.609	100	83.1%
7	Dallas Stars	27	23	0.587	96	43.3%
8	Vancouver Canucks	27	23	0.587	96	82.6%
9	Edmonton Oilers	26	23	0.565	93	71.7%
10	Los Angeles Kings	26	23	0.565	93	52.8%
11	Nashville Predators	24	22	0.545	89	43.9%
12	Colorado Avalanche	21	23	0.457	75	9.8%
13	Calgary Flames	19	22	0.432	71	11.5%
14	Anaheim Ducks	16	23	0.348	57	0.7%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	15	23	0.326	53	0.8%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning

Florida Vs Toronto in the First Round

I will Take it...not much of a Rivalry though

Oh...and that would put Boston vs Buffalo ... oh snap!

Florida Vs Toronto in the First Round

I will Take it...not much of a Rivalry though

Oh...and that would put Boston vs Buffalo ... oh snap!
- senstroll

Agreed, I take that matchup no problem.

I check that site too but you have to take it with a grain a salt...a month ago the Leafs were at like 84%...two weeks ago they were at like 40% and now they are at 70%. This early in the season fluctuations are crazy. The only time it erally makes sense is with like a dozen games to go.

Agreed, I take that matchup no problem.

I check that site too but you have to take it with a grain a salt...a month ago the Leafs were at like 84%...two weeks ago they were at like 40% and now they are at 70%. This early in the season fluctuations are crazy. The only time it erally makes sense is with like a dozen games to go.
- Leafy_84

lol thanks... telling a leafs fan to not book the playoff Parade yet... I am well aware of how things work, I know exactly how long we have been without a playoff game

East Rank	Team	Points	GP	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	New York Rangers	33	23	0.717	118	98.9%
2	Boston Bruins	33	24	0.688	113	99.6%
3	Florida Panthers	32	26	0.615	101	90.9%
4	Pittsburgh Penguins	36	27	0.667	109	97.5%
5	Philadelphia Flyers	33	25	0.660	108	95.3%
6	Toronto Maple Leafs	30	26	0.577	95	58.8%
7	Buffalo Sabres	29	26	0.558	91	60.0%
8	Washington Capitals	27	25	0.540	89	47.5%
9	Ottawa Senators	27	26	0.519	85	27.8%
10	New Jersey Devils	25	25	0.500	82	17.4%
11	Montreal Canadiens	27	27	0.500	82	44.0%
12	Winnipeg Jets	26	26	0.500	82	33.9%
13	Tampa Bay Lightning	24	25	0.480	79	23.3%
14	New York Islanders	21	24	0.438	72	4.6%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	20	28	0.357	59	0.6%

West Rank	Team	Points	GP	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	Minnesota Wild	37	27	0.685	112	86.4%
2	Detroit Red Wings	33	25	0.660	108	94.0%
3	San Jose Sharks	29	23	0.630	103	81.1%
4	Chicago Blackhawks	35	27	0.648	106	79.4%
5	St. Louis Blues	31	26	0.596	98	77.4%
6	Dallas Stars	31	26	0.596	98	47.0%
7	Vancouver Canucks	31	26	0.596	98	87.9%
8	Phoenix Coyotes	29	25	0.580	95	65.3%
9	Los Angeles Kings	30	26	0.577	95	57.8%
10	Nashville Predators	28	26	0.538	88	39.6%
11	Edmonton Oilers	29	27	0.537	88	57.6%
12	Colorado Avalanche	27	27	0.500	82	15.6%
13	Calgary Flames	24	26	0.462	76	10.1%
14	Anaheim Ducks	19	26	0.365	60	0.5%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	17	26	0.327	54	0.2%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning

Lets hope the Playoffs in the east stay around 90 points

Leafs might be able to swing 91

East Rank	Team	Points	GP	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	New York Rangers	38	27	0.704	115	99.6%
2	Boston Bruins	37	28	0.661	108	99.5%
3	Florida Panthers	37	30	0.617	101	91.5%
4	Philadelphia Flyers	39	28	0.696	114	98.8%
5	Pittsburgh Penguins	38	30	0.633	104	96.8%
6	Toronto Maple Leafs	33	29	0.569	93	58.0%
7	Buffalo Sabres	32	29	0.552	90	53.3%
8	Washington Capitals	31	28	0.554	91	61.6%
9	New Jersey Devils	31	29	0.534	88	25.4%
10	Montreal Canadiens	31	30	0.517	85	50.7%
11	Winnipeg Jets	30	29	0.517	85	36.0%
12	Ottawa Senators	30	30	0.500	82	18.4%
13	New York Islanders	24	27	0.444	73	4.2%
14	Tampa Bay Lightning	26	30	0.433	71	5.6%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	22	31	0.355	58	0.5%

West Rank	Team	Points	GP	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	Minnesota Wild	43	30	0.717	118	97.3%
2	Chicago Blackhawks	40	30	0.667	109	87.2%
3	San Jose Sharks	32	27	0.593	97	78.2%
4	Detroit Red Wings	37	28	0.661	108	97.8%
5	St. Louis Blues	37	29	0.638	105	91.5%
6	Vancouver Canucks	37	29	0.638	105	97.5%
7	Dallas Stars	33	28	0.589	97	45.1%
8	Phoenix Coyotes	33	29	0.569	93	55.9%
9	Nashville Predators	32	29	0.552	90	44.1%
10	Los Angeles Kings	30	29	0.517	85	30.9%
11	Calgary Flames	30	29	0.517	85	25.5%
12	Edmonton Oilers	31	30	0.517	85	45.3%
13	Colorado Avalanche	27	30	0.450	74	3.3%
14	Anaheim Ducks	21	29	0.362	59	0.3%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	20	29	0.345	57	0.1%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning

9 New Jersey Devils 31 29 0.534 88 25.4%
10 Montreal Canadiens 31 30 0.517 85 50.7%

This site is clearly run by a Habs fan

9 New Jersey Devils 31 29 0.534 88 25.4%
10 Montreal Canadiens 31 30 0.517 85 50.7%

This site is clearly run by a Habs fan
- Leafy_84

Haha I think that number is affected by how many teams from that division are ahead of them

Haha I think that number is affected by how many teams from that division are ahead of them
- Sharks_12

Actually, I think they actually take into account the teams that they have remaining in their schedule, and the current win% of those teams. So, that might just be indicative of the remaining schedule for the Devils being filled with teams that are a little higher in the conference right now.

Although, it's weird, the Northeast has the highest collective pts% in the league, I think (last time I checked), so you'd think the Habs would actually have a tougher schedule by that measure.

Actually, I think they actually take into account the teams that they have remaining in their schedule, and the current win% of those teams. So, that might just be indicative of the remaining schedule for the Devils being filled with teams that are a little higher in the conference right now.

Although, it's weird, the Northeast has the highest collective pts% in the league, I think (last time I checked), so you'd think the Habs would actually have a tougher schedule by that measure.
- prock

Although it may not point it out on SCS, but it must also take into account things like remaining home games, back to back games and other anomalies of the schedule for each team.

Although it may not point it out on SCS, but it must also take into account things like remaining home games, back to back games and other anomalies of the schedule for each team.
- Doppleganger

Nope. Record, opponents record, and home and away. Not back to back games or anything else.

If the leafs had 6 games left in the season and needed 1 point to make it, and all those games were against Boston they would show a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs...so the schedule affects the chances for sure.

Although it may not point it out on SCS, but it must also take into account things like remaining home games, back to back games and other anomalies of the schedule for each team.
- Doppleganger

If they do take these things into account, they should say so...

a)I'm not positive that they do, and these things are IMO generate an exponentially better playoff prediction.
b)These are probably more important than everyone's record 30 games in, so these factors should be front and center if they are being taken into account.

If they do take these things into account, they should say so...

a)I'm not positive that they do, and these things are IMO generate an exponentially better playoff prediction.
b)These are probably more important than everyone's record 30 games in, so these factors should be front and center if they are being taken into account.
- Morris

they don't. They have an explanation right on the site.

East Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	Boston Bruins	31	43	0.694	114	100.0%
2	Philadelphia Flyers	31	43	0.694	114	99.2%
3	Florida Panthers	33	42	0.636	104	94.5%
4	New York Rangers	30	40	0.667	109	99.1%
5	Pittsburgh Penguins	33	40	0.606	99	95.2%
6	New Jersey Devils	32	37	0.578	95	53.1%
7	Buffalo Sabres	32	35	0.547	90	41.9%
8	Toronto Maple Leafs	32	35	0.547	90	49.1%
9	Washington Capitals	31	33	0.532	87	47.7%
10	Winnipeg Jets	32	34	0.531	87	43.5%
11	Ottawa Senators	33	34	0.515	84	23.3%
12	Montreal Canadiens	33	33	0.500	82	38.9%
13	Tampa Bay Lightning	32	30	0.469	77	11.4%
14	New York Islanders	30	26	0.433	71	2.4%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	34	26	0.382	63	0.7%

West Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	Chicago Blackhawks	33	46	0.697	114	95.9%
2	Minnesota Wild	33	45	0.682	112	95.8%
3	San Jose Sharks	30	37	0.617	101	87.6%
4	Detroit Red Wings	31	41	0.661	108	99.3%
5	St. Louis Blues	32	42	0.656	108	96.8%
6	Vancouver Canucks	32	40	0.625	103	97.7%
7	Dallas Stars	31	37	0.597	98	51.6%
8	Nashville Predators	32	38	0.594	97	64.4%
9	Phoenix Coyotes	32	35	0.547	90	55.9%
10	Los Angeles Kings	32	32	0.500	82	16.3%
11	Calgary Flames	33	32	0.485	80	13.5%
12	Edmonton Oilers	32	31	0.484	79	30.7%
13	Colorado Avalanche	33	31	0.470	77	4.4%
14	Anaheim Ducks	32	23	0.359	59	0.2%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	33	22	0.333	55	0.0%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, we will be able to go back and see really how much the playoff spots changed, as it not supposed to change much according to the stats.

Also in the first post Toronto was on pace for 94 points and 9th, and now 90 and 8th
Less points better rank

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, we will be able to go back and see really how much the playoff spots changed, as it not supposed to change much according to the stats.

Also in the first post Toronto was on pace for 94 points and 9th, and now 90 and 8th
Less points better rank
- senstroll

And their "chances" of making the playoffs have dropped from the mid 70's (in mid November) to below 50%.

East Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	New York Rangers	37	52	0.703	115	100.0%
2	Boston Bruins	35	49	0.700	115	100.0%
3	Florida Panthers	39	47	0.603	99	84.3%
4	Philadelphia Flyers	37	48	0.649	106	98.7%
5	Pittsburgh Penguins	38	46	0.605	99	96.7%
6	New Jersey Devils	38	44	0.579	95	53.0%
7	Washington Capitals	37	42	0.568	93	74.4%
8	Winnipeg Jets	38	43	0.566	93	43.5%
9	Ottawa Senators	40	45	0.563	92	41.1%
10	Toronto Maple Leafs	38	41	0.539	88	44.3%
11	Tampa Bay Lightning	37	37	0.500	82	15.8%
12	Buffalo Sabres	38	38	0.500	82	13.0%
13	Montreal Canadiens	39	35	0.449	74	10.3%
14	New York Islanders	36	32	0.444	73	1.5%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	40	32	0.400	66	0.3%

West Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	Chicago Blackhawks	39	52	0.667	109	97.1%
2	Vancouver Canucks	40	51	0.638	105	99.5%
3	San Jose Sharks	35	44	0.629	103	94.2%
4	Detroit Red Wings	38	49	0.645	106	99.7%
5	St. Louis Blues	38	47	0.618	101	94.9%
6	Minnesota Wild	40	48	0.600	98	72.1%
7	Nashville Predators	39	46	0.590	97	53.3%
8	Dallas Stars	37	43	0.581	95	46.3%
9	Los Angeles Kings	40	45	0.563	92	46.1%
10	Colorado Avalanche	41	45	0.549	90	22.8%
11	Phoenix Coyotes	39	42	0.538	88	43.1%
12	Calgary Flames	40	41	0.513	84	16.6%
13	Edmonton Oilers	38	35	0.461	76	14.3%
14	Anaheim Ducks	37	26	0.351	58	0.0%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	38	25	0.329	54	0.0%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning

East Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	New York Rangers	39	56	0.718	118	100.0%
2	Boston Bruins	38	53	0.697	114	100.0%
3	Florida Panthers	41	48	0.585	96	74.2%
4	Philadelphia Flyers	40	52	0.650	107	98.9%
5	New Jersey Devils	41	48	0.585	96	55.7%
6	Ottawa Senators	43	50	0.581	95	56.8%
7	Pittsburgh Penguins	40	46	0.575	94	88.9%
8	Toronto Maple Leafs	41	47	0.573	94	72.6%
9	Washington Capitals	39	44	0.564	93	72.2%
10	Winnipeg Jets	41	45	0.549	90	47.5%
11	Buffalo Sabres	41	41	0.500	82	8.3%
12	Montreal Canadiens	41	39	0.476	78	20.8%
13	Tampa Bay Lightning	40	37	0.463	76	3.4%
14	New York Islanders	39	34	0.436	71	0.4%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	43	35	0.407	67	0.2%

West Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	San Jose Sharks	38	50	0.658	108	98.5%
2	Vancouver Canucks	42	55	0.655	107	99.9%
3	St. Louis Blues	41	53	0.646	106	99.3%
4	Detroit Red Wings	41	53	0.646	106	99.9%
5	Chicago Blackhawks	42	53	0.631	103	90.8%
6	Dallas Stars	40	47	0.588	96	67.2%
7	Nashville Predators	41	48	0.585	96	53.7%
8	Minnesota Wild	42	48	0.571	94	53.5%
9	Los Angeles Kings	42	47	0.560	92	46.6%
10	Colorado Avalanche	43	47	0.547	90	29.7%
11	Phoenix Coyotes	42	45	0.536	88	46.6%
12	Calgary Flames	43	43	0.500	82	9.4%
13	Edmonton Oilers	41	35	0.427	70	5.0%
14	Anaheim Ducks	40	30	0.375	62	0.0%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	41	27	0.329	54	0.0%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning

East Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	New York Rangers	43	60	0.698	114	100.0%
2	Boston Bruins	41	57	0.695	114	100.0%
3	Washington Capitals	43	50	0.581	95	80.2%
4	Philadelphia Flyers	43	56	0.651	107	99.2%
5	Ottawa Senators	46	56	0.609	100	85.5%
6	New Jersey Devils	44	52	0.591	97	64.0%
7	Florida Panthers	43	50	0.581	95	73.4%
8	Pittsburgh Penguins	44	50	0.568	93	88.8%
9	Toronto Maple Leafs	44	49	0.557	91	63.8%
10	Winnipeg Jets	44	45	0.511	84	23.5%
11	Buffalo Sabres	44	43	0.489	80	4.7%
12	Montreal Canadiens	45	42	0.467	77	15.2%
13	New York Islanders	42	38	0.452	74	1.0%
14	Tampa Bay Lightning	44	38	0.432	71	0.6%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	47	39	0.415	68	0.3%

West Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	St. Louis Blues	44	58	0.659	108	99.6%
2	San Jose Sharks	42	55	0.655	107	98.8%
3	Vancouver Canucks	46	59	0.641	105	99.8%
4	Chicago Blackhawks	46	60	0.652	107	96.9%
5	Detroit Red Wings	44	57	0.648	106	99.8%
6	Nashville Predators	44	54	0.614	101	77.0%
7	Los Angeles Kings	46	53	0.576	94	61.9%
8	Dallas Stars	43	49	0.570	93	48.3%
9	Minnesota Wild	45	51	0.567	93	47.3%
10	Colorado Avalanche	46	50	0.543	89	23.2%
11	Phoenix Coyotes	45	47	0.522	86	35.3%
12	Calgary Flames	46	47	0.511	84	9.9%
13	Edmonton Oilers	44	38	0.432	71	1.8%
14	Anaheim Ducks	44	37	0.420	69	0.4%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	44	29	0.330	54	0.0%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning

East Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	New York Rangers	46	64	0.696	114	100.0%
2	Boston Bruins	46	64	0.696	114	100.0%
3	Florida Panthers	47	54	0.574	94	77.0%
4	Philadelphia Flyers	47	61	0.649	106	99.7%
5	Pittsburgh Penguins	48	58	0.604	99	97.7%
6	Ottawa Senators	50	60	0.600	98	89.6%
7	New Jersey Devils	47	54	0.574	94	60.1%
8	Washington Capitals	47	53	0.564	92	70.1%
9	Toronto Maple Leafs	47	51	0.543	89	55.2%
10	Winnipeg Jets	48	50	0.521	85	28.3%
11	New York Islanders	46	44	0.478	78	3.4%
12	Montreal Canadiens	48	45	0.469	77	14.8%
13	Tampa Bay Lightning	47	44	0.468	77	3.3%
14	Buffalo Sabres	48	43	0.448	73	0.3%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	50	43	0.430	71	0.5%

West Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	St. Louis Blues	47	64	0.681	112	99.9%
2	Vancouver Canucks	48	62	0.646	106	99.9%
3	San Jose Sharks	45	57	0.633	104	98.4%
4	Detroit Red Wings	48	65	0.677	111	100.0%
5	Chicago Blackhawks	49	64	0.653	107	98.8%
6	Nashville Predators	48	60	0.625	103	91.8%
7	Los Angeles Kings	49	56	0.571	94	63.6%
8	Minnesota Wild	48	53	0.552	91	43.8%
9	Colorado Avalanche	50	54	0.540	89	25.3%
10	Dallas Stars	47	50	0.532	87	23.4%
11	Calgary Flames	49	52	0.531	87	25.9%
12	Phoenix Coyotes	49	50	0.510	84	27.1%
13	Anaheim Ducks	47	43	0.457	75	1.9%
14	Edmonton Oilers	47	38	0.404	66	0.2%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	47	32	0.340	56	0.0%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning

East Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	New York Rangers	47	66	0.702	115	100.0%
2	Boston Bruins	47	64	0.681	112	100.0%
3	Washington Capitals	48	55	0.573	94	79.4%
4	Philadelphia Flyers	48	63	0.656	108	99.8%
5	Pittsburgh Penguins	49	60	0.612	100	98.2%
6	Ottawa Senators	52	60	0.577	95	76.0%
7	Florida Panthers	48	55	0.573	94	73.4%
8	New Jersey Devils	48	55	0.573	94	53.6%
9	Toronto Maple Leafs	49	55	0.561	92	70.5%
10	Winnipeg Jets	50	50	0.500	82	15.3%
11	Montreal Canadiens	49	47	0.480	79	25.3%
12	Tampa Bay Lightning	48	46	0.479	79	5.4%
13	New York Islanders	48	45	0.469	77	1.7%
14	Buffalo Sabres	49	45	0.459	75	0.6%
15	Carolina Hurricanes	51	45	0.441	72	0.8%

West Rank	Team	GP	Points	Point Percentage	Projected Points	Playoff Chances
1	Detroit Red Wings	50	67	0.670	110	100.0%
2	Vancouver Canucks	49	64	0.653	107	99.9%
3	San Jose Sharks	47	60	0.638	105	98.3%
4	St. Louis Blues	49	65	0.663	109	99.9%
5	Chicago Blackhawks	50	64	0.640	105	96.8%
6	Nashville Predators	50	64	0.640	105	96.3%
7	Los Angeles Kings	50	58	0.580	95	67.5%
8	Minnesota Wild	49	55	0.561	92	47.3%
9	Colorado Avalanche	51	54	0.529	87	15.0%
10	Dallas Stars	48	52	0.542	89	28.1%
11	Phoenix Coyotes	50	52	0.520	85	31.8%
12	Calgary Flames	50	52	0.520	85	17.7%
13	Anaheim Ducks	48	43	0.448	73	1.2%
14	Edmonton Oilers	49	41	0.418	69	0.3%
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	49	32	0.327	54	0.0%

Playoff Chances taken from www.sportsclubstats.com
Updated every Monday morning