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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
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senstroll
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jan 31 @ 9:16 AM ET
If Bobby Ryan chucks Kessel into the boards then proceeds to score the game winning goal I'm buying a dang jersey.
- Mr_Squeaks


If Ryan has a takeaway I am afraid of what we might find posted here from doppleguy
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 31 @ 9:28 AM ET
If Ryan has a takeaway I am afraid of what we might find posted here from doppleguy

- senstroll

Mr_Squeaks
Ottawa Senators
Location: Location: Location: Glitch in
Joined: 06.26.2006

Jan 31 @ 9:36 AM ET
If Ryan has a takeaway I am afraid of what we might find posted here from doppleguy

- senstroll


If you don't mind tunnel-vision stats, this might not be the worst place to go. It's a niche market, admittedly...
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 31 @ 9:39 AM ET
wow, I didn't realize the other wild card teams fell off the map that far

If Ottawa beats the Leafs on Saturday, things could get interesting!

- Feeling Glucky?


I agree. The wildcard spots in the east are far from secured by the current holders of them. The "points" system kinda gives a false impression to low information fans.

You may not agree with my opinion, and that's your right, but the leafs and Habs are not as secure in their current seed either.

If you look strictly at each team's record to this point in the season, there is going to be a lot of playoff seed swapping right down to the last games of the season.

Montreal .583
toronto .571
Rangers .555
Carolina .538
Detroit .538
Columbus .537
Ottawa .537
Philadelphia .527
Washington .519
New Jersey .518

Detroit has 3 games in hand, on the leafs, Ottawa & Montreal have 2 games in hand (on the leafs) so I see at least three of those four teams still in the race to secure an Atlantic division playoff seed, with the others competing for a wild-card spot, along.
with the teams from the Metro. division who don't nail down a spot in their division.

So 10 teams in the race for 4 playoff spots.

I don't see the Saturday game between the leafs and Senators as interesting as you do............I see the Back to Back games between the Capitals and Red Wings as more interesting, as two wins for the Red Wings would move them closer to the top of the pack of the above ten teams and potentially knocking the Capitals out of the race in the short term.

Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 31 @ 9:54 AM ET
I agree. The wildcard spots in the east are far from secured by the current holders of them. The "points" system kinda gives a false impression to low information fans.

You may not agree with my opinion, and that's your right, but the leafs and Habs are not as secure in their current seed either.

If you look strictly at each team's record to this point in the season, there is going to be a lot of playoff seed swapping right down to the last games of the season.

Montreal .583
toronto .571
Rangers .555
Carolina .538
Detroit .538
Columbus .537
Ottawa .537
Philadelphia .527
Washington .519
New Jersey .518

Detroit has 3 games in hand, on the leafs, Ottawa & Montreal have 2 games in hand (on the leafs) so I see at least three of those four teams still in the race to secure an Atlantic division playoff seed, with the others competing for a wild-card spot, along.
with the teams from the Metro. division who don't nail down a spot in their division.

So 10 teams in the race for 4 playoff spots.

I don't see the Saturday game between the leafs and Senators as interesting as you do............I see the Back to Back games between the Capitals and Red Wings as more interesting, as two wins for the Red Wings would move them closer to the top of the pack of the above ten teams and potentially knocking the Capitals out of the race in the short term.

- Doppleganger

Again, it can't be said enough, points percentage already takes games in hand into account. That's why people use it.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:05 AM ET
Again, it can't be said enough, points percentage already takes games in hand into account. That's why people use it.
- Feeling Glucky?



Yes I know that. But a team with games in hand hold an advantage over the team without.

How much of an advantage?
One game?
Two games?
Four games?

The number of games in hand are relevant, and you can't deny that.

Here's a really easy example.

The leafs (64) are currently sitting with more points than the Habs (63).

But Montreal (.583) has a better record than toronto (571).

Montreal has two more opportunities this season, to improve their record relative to the leafs. Detroit has three.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 31 @ 10:12 AM ET
Yes I know that. But a team with games in hand hold an advantage over the team without.

How much of an advantage?
One game?
Two games?
Four games?

The number of games in hand are relevant, and you can't deny that.

Here's a really easy example.

The leafs (64) are currently sitting with more points than the Habs (63).

But Montreal (.583) has a better record than toronto (571).

Montreal has two more opportunities this season, to improve their record relative to the leafs. Detroit has three.

- Doppleganger

Not when you're looking at point percentage. THAT'S WHY YOU USE POINT PERCENTAGE.

Jesus.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Boyle > Marleau :dopes, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:17 AM ET
Yes I know that. But a team with games in hand hold an advantage over the team without.

How much of an advantage?
One game?
Two games?
Four games?

The number of games in hand are relevant, and you can't deny that.

Here's a really easy example.

The leafs (64) are currently sitting with more points than the Habs (63).

But Montreal (.583) has a better record than toronto (571).

Montreal has two more opportunities this season, to improve their record relative to the leafs. Detroit has three.

- Doppleganger




Games in had are irrelevant if looking at pts%.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:17 AM ET
Not when you're looking at point percentage. THAT'S WHY YOU USE POINT PERCENTAGE.

Jesus.

- Feeling Glucky?



So you can tell, just by looking at Points Percentage, how many games each team has played?


And you don't see it as an advantage for teams with games in hand, to gain ground on the team(s) they are chasing?


Buddha
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jan 31 @ 10:17 AM ET
Yes I know that. But a team with games in hand hold an advantage over the team without.

How much of an advantage?
One game?
Two games?
Four games?

The number of games in hand are relevant, and you can't deny that.

Here's a really easy example.

The leafs (64) are currently sitting with more points than the Habs (63).

But Montreal (.583) has a better record than toronto (571).

Montreal has two more opportunities this season, to improve their record relative to the leafs. Detroit has three.

- Doppleganger


I honest to god think you might be the stupidest mother phucker on the face of the earth. You have a huge problem with logic and comprehension.


prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jan 31 @ 10:19 AM ET
So you can tell, just by looking at Points Percentage, how many games each team has played?


And you don't see it as an advantage for teams with games in hand, to gain ground on the team(s) they are chasing?


Buddha

- Doppleganger


No, its not an advantage when looking at points percentage. In fact, you could look at it as a disadvantage because the team with more games played has already earned the points.

In reality though, anyone that understands it realizes its neither an advantage or disadvantage.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Boyle > Marleau :dopes, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:22 AM ET
So you can tell, just by looking at Points Percentage, how many games each team has played?


And you don't see it as an advantage for teams with games in hand, to gain ground on the team(s) they are chasing?


Buddha

- Doppleganger




it doesn't matter how many they played if looking at %. That's the whole point of a %, to level the playing field.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:24 AM ET
Games in had are irrelevant if looking at pts%.
- burn



Looking only at points percentage, shows a teams record to that point in the season, regardless on how many games teams have played


Anaheim has a .759 P%

Chicago has a .705 P%

Are you telling me, looking ONLY at P% in the above example (without sneaking a peak at nhl.com), if one of those teams have played more games than the other?


NO you can't.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Boyle > Marleau :dopes, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:28 AM ET
Looking only at points percentage, shows a teams record to that point in the season, regardless on how many games teams have played


Anaheim has a .759 P%

Chicago has a .705 P%

Are you telling me, looking ONLY at P% in the above example (without sneaking a peak at nhl.com), if one of those teams have played more games than the other?


NO you can't
.

- Doppleganger




It doesn't matter if you are looking at %. Totally irrelevant.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:37 AM ET
No, its not an advantage when looking at points percentage. In fact, you could look at it as a disadvantage because the team with more games played has already earned the points.

In reality though, anyone that understands it realizes its neither an advantage or disadvantage.

- prock



I think you're missing the point I'm trying to make. Perhaps I'm having a difficult time explaining it.

Because the NHL ranks the teams, during the regular season, using a points system that no other major league in North America uses, it can cause the false impression that a team is doing better than another team that has not played the same number of games.

If Montreal has a better record than the leafs, but the NHL has the leafs sitting pretty in third place in the division becasue it uses the the point system.....................some low information fans (not anyone here in this forum) may think the leafs are the better team and might start staking out their spot on the parade route.

Someone, who is a little more informed than the low information fan might point out that Montreal actually has the better record (using P%) because they've played fewer games.

After explaining to the low information fan what the heck P% is, they may then be wondering how many games difference there is between the Habs and the leafs.

After that, they may begin to see that because the Habs have two more games/opportunities to improve their record and acquire points than the leafs do, they may then see the number of games in hand as a advantage, with more games being a bigger advantage.
burn
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Boyle > Marleau :dopes, ON
Joined: 08.02.2006

Jan 31 @ 10:39 AM ET
I think you're missing the point I'm trying to make. Perhaps I'm having a difficult time explaining it.

Because the NHL ranks the teams, during the regular season, using a points system that no other major league in North America uses, it can cause the false impression that a team is doing better than another team that has not played the same number of games.

If Montreal has a better record than the leafs, but the NHL has the leafs sitting pretty in third place in the division becasue it uses the the point system.....................some low information fans (not anyone here in this forum) may think the leafs are the better team and might start staking out their spot on the parade route.

Someone, who is a little more informed than the low information fan might point out that Montreal actually has the better record (using P%) because they've played fewer games.

After explaining to the low information fan what the heck P% is, they may then be wondering how many games difference there is between the Habs and the leafs.

After that, they may begin to see that because the Habs have two more games/opportunities to improve their record and acquire points than the leafs do, they may then see the number of games in hand as a advantage, with more games being a bigger advantage.

- Doppleganger


This is not an issue as far as I know. I don't think people are getting confused on this issue.


Are you projecting?
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 31 @ 10:43 AM ET
Looking only at points percentage, shows a teams record to that point in the season, regardless on how many games teams have played


Anaheim has a .759 P%

Chicago has a .705 P%

Are you telling me, looking ONLY at P% in the above example (without sneaking a peak at nhl.com), if one of those teams have played more games than the other?


NO you can't.

- Doppleganger


I don't need to. That's the point. I know that if Anaheim keeps up a .759 P%, they're going to finish higher than Chicago, if they keep up a .705 P%.

At this point in the season, there's a large enough sample size that you can assume teams will continue on their point paces... meaning it's safe to assume anaheim will continue to collect 76% of the points available, while Chicago will collect 71% of what's left.

So it doesn't matter who's played more games. Continuing at their point pace, Chicago will never catch Anaheim, even if they had 30 games in hand.
sanfordnson
Edmonton Oilers
Location: BiggButtz
Joined: 03.11.2010

Jan 31 @ 10:48 AM ET
Ottawa Traded away Bishop for Conacher and a 4th. CC is is pace for 25 points

Bishop is leading the NHL is sv%, has 25 wins and I heard on the Sens radio last night could be in the discussion for league MVP.

Sens have 22 Wins, Bishop 25



Mistake?

- senstroll

It will be once Scrivens gets his 5th 50 save shutout in a row.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Jan 31 @ 10:52 AM ET
I think you're missing the point I'm trying to make. Perhaps I'm having a difficult time explaining it.

Because the NHL ranks the teams, during the regular season, using a points system that no other major league in North America uses, it can cause the false impression that a team is doing better than another team that has not played the same number of games.

If Montreal has a better record than the leafs, but the NHL has the leafs sitting pretty in third place in the division becasue it uses the the point system.....................some low information fans (not anyone here in this forum) may think the leafs are the better team and might start staking out their spot on the parade route.

Someone, who is a little more informed than the low information fan might point out that Montreal actually has the better record (using P%) because they've played fewer games.

After explaining to the low information fan what the heck P% is, they may then be wondering how many games difference there is between the Habs and the leafs.

After that, they may begin to see that because the Habs have two more games/opportunities to improve their record and acquire points than the leafs do, they may then see the number of games in hand as a advantage, with more games being a bigger advantage.

- Doppleganger


which is the purpose of pts%, and does that for them. It's why it's there. Therefore, you don't have to look at points % AND games in hand. Just look at points %. There is no need to look at both together. It's redundant.
the_cause2000
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not quite my tempo
Joined: 02.26.2007

Jan 31 @ 1:55 PM ET
Leafs
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 31 @ 3:53 PM ET
I don't need to. That's the point. I know that if Anaheim keeps up a .759 P%, they're going to finish higher than Chicago, if they keep up a .705 P%.

At this point in the season, there's a large enough sample size that you can assume teams will continue on their point paces... meaning it's safe to assume anaheim will continue to collect 76% of the points available, while Chicago will collect 71% of what's left.

So it doesn't matter who's played more games. Continuing at their point pace, Chicago will never catch Anaheim, even if they had 30 games in hand.

- Feeling Glucky?



But, you can't assume that a team will continue to play at their "current" P% for the remainder of the season.

For example, if you assumed the Blackhawks & Ducks would play at their current P% on December 31 when they had both played 42 games each and had 63 points each, then today they would be tied in points and P%.

-----------------------------
Now lets say someone wanted to make a bet with you, with ten days left in the season.

They were a big Red Wings fan, and you were a leaf fan. Both teams were tied with 86 points each and both were mathematically still in the race for a wild-card spot.

The leafs have a .622 P% and the Wings a .616 P%, with 10 days to go in the season

Who would you bet on to finish ahead of the other in the standings?
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 31 @ 4:31 PM ET
But, you can't assume that a team will continue to play at their "current" P% for the remainder of the season.

For example, if you assumed the Blackhawks & Ducks would play at their current P% on December 31 when they had both played 42 games each and had 63 points each, then today they would be tied in points and P%.

-----------------------------
Now lets say someone wanted to make a bet with you, with ten days left in the season.

They were a big Red Wings fan, and you were a leaf fan. Both teams were tied with 86 points each and both were mathematically still in the race for a wild-card spot.

The leafs have a .622 P% and the Wings a .616 P%, with 10 days to go in the season

Who would you bet on to finish ahead of the other in the standings?

- Doppleganger

You're missing the point. When you rank by point percentage, what you're really doing is ranking by how many points they'll have, after 82 games, based on their record so far. It takes into account how many games have been played, by dividing the number of points earned by the number of points that could have been earned(ie, gp*2).

But you're right, blindly assuming that trends continue is faulty... as corsians love to say, everything regresses to the mean, which would be somewhere around 50%(a bit higher, because of 3 point games)... so truth be told, you give the benefit of the doubt to teams that have fewer games remaining, as they have less time to regress.


As for your question, assuming both teams are facing similar competition, and neither team has many games left to fall off their pace, you go with the team that has the higher point percentage. So that would be the Leafs.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 31 @ 4:50 PM ET


As for your question, assuming both teams are facing similar competition, and neither team has many games left to fall off their pace, you go with the team that has the higher point percentage. So that would be the Leafs.

- Feeling Glucky?


Wouldn't you want to know exactly how many games each team had left to play?

Or would you not ask, or look that up, or just assume and make the bet?
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 31 @ 4:54 PM ET
Wouldn't you want to know exactly how many games each team had left to play?

Or would you not ask, or look that up, or just assume and make the bet?

- Doppleganger


I'd take the team with the higher point percentage. Again, assuming the same level competition.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 31 @ 5:04 PM ET
I'd take the team with the higher point percentage. Again, assuming the same level competition.
- Feeling Glucky?



And assuming the team with the lower P% had no games in hand?
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619, 620, 621, 622, 623, 624, 625, 626, 627, 628, 629, 630, 631, 632, 633, 634, 635, 636, 637, 638, 639, 640, 641, 642, 643, 644, 645, 646, 647, 648, 649, 650, 651, 652, 653, 654, 655, 656, 657, 658, 659, 660, 661, 662, 663, 664, 665, 666, 667, 668, 669, 670, 671, 672, 673, 674, 675, 676, 677, 678, 679, 680, 681, 682, 683, 684, 685, 686, 687, 688, 689, 690, 691, 692, 693, 694, 695, 696, 697, 698, 699, 700, 701, 702, 703, 704, 705, 706, 707, 708, 709, 710, 711, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 721, 722, 723, 724, 725, 726, 727, 728, 729, 730, 731, 732, 733, 734, 735, 736, 737, 738, 739, 740, 741, 742, 743, 744, 745, 746, 747, 748, 749, 750, 751, 752, 753, 754, 755, 756, 757, 758, 759, 760, 761, 762, 763, 764, 765, 766, 767, 768, 769, 770, 771, 772, 773, 774, 775, 776, 777, 778, 779, 780, 781, 782, 783, 784, 785, 786, 787, 788, 789, 790, 791, 792, 793, 794, 795, 796, 797, 798, 799, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 807, 808, 809, 810, 811, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 819, 820, 821, 822, 823, 824, 825, 826, 827, 828, 829, 830, 831, 832, 833, 834, 835, 836, 837, 838, 839, 840, 841, 842, 843, 844, 845, 846, 847, 848, 849, 850, 851, 852, 853, 854, 855, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 861, 862, 863, 864, 865, 866, 867, 868, 869, 870, 871, 872, 873, 874, 875, 876, 877, 878, 879, 880, 881, 882, 883, 884, 885, 886, 887, 888, 889, 890, 891, 892, 893, 894, 895, 896, 897, 898, 899, 900, 901, 902, 903, 904, 905, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 911, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 921, 922, 923, 924, 925, 926, 927, 928, 929, 930, 931, 932, 933, 934, 935, 936, 937, 938, 939, 940, 941, 942, 943, 944, 945, 946, 947, 948, 949, 950, 951, 952, 953, 954, 955, 956, 957, 958, 959, 960, 961, 962, 963, 964, 965, 966, 967, 968, 969, 970, 971, 972, 973, 974, 975, 976, 977, 978, 979, 980, 981, 982, 983, 984, 985, 986, 987, 988, 989, 990, 991, 992, 993, 994, 995, 996, 997, 998, 999, 1000, 1001, 1002, 1003, 1004, 1005, 1006, 1007, 1008, 1009, 1010, 1011, 1012, 1013, 1014, 1015, 1016, 1017, 1018, 1019, 1020, 1021, 1022, 1023, 1024, 1025, 1026, 1027, 1028, 1029, 1030, 1031, 1032, 1033, 1034, 1035, 1036, 1037, 1038, 1039, 1040, 1041, 1042, 1043, 1044, 1045, 1046, 1047, 1048, 1049, 1050, 1051, 1052, 1053, 1054, 1055, 1056, 1057, 1058, 1059, 1060, 1061, 1062, 1063, 1064, 1065, 1066, 1067, 1068, 1069, 1070, 1071, 1072, 1073, 1074, 1075, 1076, 1077, 1078, 1079, 1080, 1081, 1082, 1083, 1084, 1085, 1086, 1087, 1088, 1089, 1090, 1091, 1092, 1093, 1094, 1095, 1096, 1097, 1098, 1099, 1100, 1101, 1102, 1103, 1104, 1105, 1106, 1107, 1108, 1109, 1110, 1111, 1112, 1113, 1114, 1115, 1116, 1117, 1118, 1119, 1120, 1121, 1122, 1123, 1124, 1125, 1126, 1127, 1128, 1129, 1130, 1131, 1132, 1133, 1134, 1135, 1136, 1137, 1138, 1139, 1140, 1141, 1142, 1143, 1144, 1145, 1146, 1147, 1148, 1149, 1150, 1151, 1152, 1153, 1154, 1155, 1156, 1157  Next