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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 27 @ 4:44 PM ET
there's more to analytics than corsi though.


1) Zone entries

2) Evaluating a player's luck offensively by looking at his sh% and on-ice sh%

3) Quality of shots taken/allowed when the player is on the ice

- Nucker101


Understand. I am not against analytics. I think analytics can make for fun discussions.

My problem is when people try to discount the scoreboard or the standings because a team won the fancy stat evaluation. All year we had to deal with the idea that the two best possession teams in the NHL were the Kings and Bruins. Just a pile of hooey.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: every day, once a day, give yourself a present, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Apr 27 @ 4:46 PM ET
you can bet nhl teams have actual real zone time and possession stats. some nerd gets paid to use a stopwatch and fill out spreadsheets while watching video all day.

corsi is just what we use to track possession since zone time is not officially tracked anywhere.
Nucker101
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All right everyone, listen up
Joined: 09.26.2010

Apr 27 @ 4:46 PM ET
Understand. I am not against analytics. I think analytics can make for fun discussions.

My problem is when people try to discount the scoreboard or the standings because a team won the fancy stat evaluation. All year we had to deal with the idea that the two best possession teams in the NHL were the Kings and Bruins. Just a pile of hooey.

- spatso

Yeah, based on corsi, they were solid teams. But it goes deeper than that. To be a legitimately good team you do need to out-shoot your opponents more often than not, but to be an elite team, you need guys who can create high quality scoring chances, finish scoring chances, and prevent high scoring chances. Those things aren't measured by corsi.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: every day, once a day, give yourself a present, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Apr 27 @ 4:47 PM ET
LA had Budaj as their starter for nearly the whole year lol. Goaltending is a huge factor in winning games and completely overrides corsi.
Nucker101
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All right everyone, listen up
Joined: 09.26.2010

Apr 27 @ 4:47 PM ET
you can bet nhl teams have actual real zone time and possession stats. some nerd gets paid to use a stopwatch and fill out spreadsheets while watching video all day.

corsi is just what we use to track possession since zone time is not officially tracked anywhere.

- daeth


Yup.


And people who think corsi is basically the end-all of analytics or 90% of analytics are misinformed.
Nucker101
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All right everyone, listen up
Joined: 09.26.2010

Apr 27 @ 4:48 PM ET
LA had Budaj as their starter for nearly the whole year lol. Goaltending is a huge factor in winning games and completely overrides corsi.
- daeth

No doubt. Plus I believe most cup winning teams usually have goalies that are top 10 in saving shots in high-danger areas during that season.
prock
Nashville Predators
Location: Nice to know how comfortable t, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Apr 27 @ 4:52 PM ET
Again, I highly doubt teams invested in analytics are using Corsi as their main evaluation tool. So yeah, some scrub player can trying shooting the puck a lot, but things like zone entries, quality of shots for/against will expose him for not being very talented.
- Nucker101



Absolutely agree. (never saw you say it the first time).

We're likely miles behind these analytics teams assembled, and a lot of the things you quote are probably out of date to them too.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: every day, once a day, give yourself a present, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Apr 27 @ 4:57 PM ET
No doubt. Plus I believe most cup winning teams usually have goalies that are top 10 in saving shots in high-danger areas during that season.
- Nucker101

I'm actually impressed that they were able to make Budaj look good. Dude's terrible.

LA did have trouble scoring this year too though. Kopitar was invisible and they only had two guys with at least 50 points. You'd think they'd be better next year though I don't really expect them to win a cup again.
prock
Nashville Predators
Location: Nice to know how comfortable t, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Apr 27 @ 5:02 PM ET
Yup.


And people who think corsi is basically the end-all of analytics or 90% of analytics are misinformed.

- Nucker101



But the majority of advanced stats guys I see, point almost exclusively to Corsi at a team level, and CorsiRel at a player level (which is especially stupid), and that drives me insane. It's really where my ire with the advanced stats comes from.

I have no issues with taking Corsi, and the other related stats into consideration, where I take issue is when I see people use it in isolation, and brush aside all the other things, like zone starts, entries, qualcomp, etc. Along with the obvious ones as well (i.e. advanced stats don't make the simple ones obsolete), like goals, assists, primary assists, points per 60, even faceoffs. Especially over the course of more than two years, there are goals against, goals against per 60, which people brush aside far too quickly now. Quality of chances.

One stat in isolation will never tell the whole story. Hell, you can't really pick 10 stats that will always tell the whole story. Or 20 for that matter.

ps - the (frank)ing CorsiRel thing. Jesus christ, I've seen so many say that CorsiRel is "adjusted" for the team you're on. How (frank)ing stupid can some people be. It's not adjusted for the team you're on, it's IN COMPARISON TO the players on your team. There is a big difference.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Apr 27 @ 6:40 PM ET
Yeah, I'm sure you're insistence that it doesn't happen is much better than a coach and a player saying it does.

Such ignorance.

Whether you think it works or not, you're kidding yourself if you don't think some of these guys know it gets into contract negoatiations, and will try to "game" them. Of course it happens, you're naive to think it doesn't.

- prock

They didnt. Trotz showed a misunderstanding of what Corsi was, and the players said it might happen, but that they don't care about advanced stats.

And even if there was an attempt to do it, it wouldn't actually be of any benefit to the player.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Apr 27 @ 6:41 PM ET
I'm actually impressed that they were able to make Budaj look good. Dude's terrible.

LA did have trouble scoring this year too though. Kopitar was invisible and they only had two guys with at least 50 points. You'd think they'd be better next year though I don't really expect them to win a cup again.

- daeth

Without looking at the numbers, I'd guess their pdo is pretty low this year.
prock
Nashville Predators
Location: Nice to know how comfortable t, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Apr 27 @ 7:39 PM ET
They didnt. Trotz showed a misunderstanding of what Corsi was, and the players said it might happen, but that they don't care about advanced stats.

And even if there was an attempt to do it, it wouldn't actually be of any benefit to the player.

- Feeling Glucky?



sure.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Apr 27 @ 7:57 PM ET


sure.

- prock

Excellent response.


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