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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Apr 26 @ 4:57 PM ET
Sure. except I haven't taken back what I said. I believe Karlsson is that good. He would be right around McDavid/Matthews/Crosby if i was starting a team from scratch.
- Aetherial



good for you. I don't really care.
Nucker101
Seattle Kraken
Location: Empty The Clip, ME
Joined: 09.26.2010

Apr 26 @ 5:06 PM ET
posting this because its interesting
- senstroll


NHL is such a backwards ass league. Even the NFL/NBA analytical movement is being met with less hostility than the NHL's.

MLB isn't as much of a team game so it's hard to compare it to the other 3 sports.
Nucker101
Seattle Kraken
Location: Empty The Clip, ME
Joined: 09.26.2010

Apr 26 @ 5:09 PM ET
The round 2 onwards comment just goes to show how much of a crapshoot it all is.

I think there is just no way to always be sure how good most players that young will become.

- Aetherial

For sure, but when teams like Detroit in the past and Tampa now are consistently finding more NHL'ers than other teams, there has to be a reason for it. Dinosaur GM's/scouts are wasting later round picks on prospects who are already role players in the CHL/NCAA, most current NHL role players who are effective were basically 1st line scorers in junior, or at least top 6 players. There's always the rare outliers, but why place your bet on finding the needle in the haystack when you can bet on better odds?

It's amazing how old school this league still is in 2017.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Apr 26 @ 5:30 PM ET
The round 2 onwards comment just goes to show how much of a crapshoot it all is.

I think there is just no way to always be sure how good most players that young will become.

- Aetherial

So basically, after the 2nd, trade down as much as possible to get more picks. Try and get all the 7th rounders.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Apr 26 @ 5:34 PM ET
So basically, after the 2nd, trade down as much as possible to get more picks. Try and get all the 7th rounders.
- Feeling Glucky?


yost if villified!

but seriously, i think that guy over exaggerated a little. i've seen some analysis that GM's generally don't do a much better job in the 2nd vs. 3rd rounds. so trading down from there makes sense.

rounds 4-7 don't yield many nhler's at all in comparison to rounds 2-3.
Nucker101
Seattle Kraken
Location: Empty The Clip, ME
Joined: 09.26.2010

Apr 26 @ 5:36 PM ET
So basically, after the 2nd, trade down as much as possible to get more picks. Try and get all the 7th rounders.
- Feeling Glucky?


From the articles i've read, it's more like that after round 3. I'd actually trade down in round 4 for multiple picks in every draft...that or package round 4 and 5 to move into round 3 if possible.


Or just do what Tampa does and keep draft skill/speed in every round and profit.
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Apr 26 @ 5:39 PM ET
From the articles i've read, it's more like that after round 3. I'd actually trade down in round 4 for multiple picks in every draft...that or package round 4 and 5 to move into round 3 if possible.


Or just do what Tampa does and keep draft skill/speed in every round and profit.

- Nucker101


that all makes sense

once you start pushing into 100 players it's all a big crap shoot.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Apr 26 @ 6:12 PM ET
http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...eption-leafs-called-envy/

yep, I see a lot of this.
muffin_man
Montreal Canadiens
Location: no problem, as s hole - Eric Engels, NY
Joined: 02.10.2007

Apr 26 @ 7:17 PM ET
Leafs. Unquestionably so.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Apr 26 @ 7:55 PM ET
From the articles i've read, it's more like that after round 3. I'd actually trade down in round 4 for multiple picks in every draft...that or package round 4 and 5 to move into round 3 if possible.


Or just do what Tampa does and keep draft skill/speed in every round and profit.

- Nucker101

I think this is basically Dubas's strategy.

D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Apr 26 @ 7:59 PM ET
NHL is such a backwards ass league. Even the NFL/NBA analytical movement is being met with less hostility than the NHL's.

MLB isn't as much of a team game so it's hard to compare it to the other 3 sports.

- Nucker101



analytics are taylor made for MLB.

for the majority of "at bats" the player at the plate, and the defensive team are all stationary until the ball is put into play.

The defense is set up to meet the specific defensive positioning for each particular batter , under the conditions of the game at the time.

Anallyitics have a much smaller impact on all other sports, because the there are way more variables than in MLB.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Apr 26 @ 8:41 PM ET
analytics are taylor made for MLB.

for the majority of "at bats" the player at the plate, and the defensive team are all stationary until the ball is put into play.

The defense is set up to meet the specific defensive positioning for each particular batter , under the conditions of the game at the time.

Anallyitics have a much smaller impact on all other sports, because the there are way more variables than in MLB.

- D0PPELGANGER


Then how come NBA teams have enormous analytics departments and rely heavily on them?
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Apr 26 @ 9:33 PM ET
Then how come NBA teams have enormous analytics departments and rely heavily on them?
- PhillySportsGuy

Bunch of fancy boys.

Analylitics only matter if you're standing still, apparently.
TheTaoOfSemenko
Vegas Golden Knights
Joined: 07.01.2009

Apr 26 @ 10:03 PM ET
Then how come NBA teams have enormous analytics departments and rely heavily on them?
- PhillySportsGuy

No idea. Not even sure why all the other NBA teams bother playing when everyone has known since the last finals ended that it would be Cleveland and Golden State again. Analytics dont mean much when the leagues best players are gathered on two teams.
Nucker101
Seattle Kraken
Location: Empty The Clip, ME
Joined: 09.26.2010

Apr 27 @ 5:00 AM ET
No idea. Not even sure why all the other NBA teams bother playing when everyone has known since the last finals ended that it would be Cleveland and Golden State again. Analytics dont mean much when the leagues best players are gathered on two teams.
- TheTaoOfSemenko


The goal is to win 2, maybe 3 games in a series against one of them, that's basically a championship for the other 28 teams.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Apr 27 @ 6:12 AM ET
Bunch of fancy boys.

Analylitics only matter if you're standing still, apparently.

- Feeling Glucky?


No, it really is a lot more complex. People who understand sport may not understand statistics. So, when you create a measuring system that assumes all shots are created equal you will pay the consequences. A shot from the boards has the same value as a shot from the slot. So, just keep shooting and you will look strong on paper anyways.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 27 @ 7:38 AM ET
analytics are taylor made for MLB.

for the majority of "at bats" the player at the plate, and the defensive team are all stationary until the ball is put into play.

The defense is set up to meet the specific defensive positioning for each particular batter , under the conditions of the game at the time.

Anallyitics have a much smaller impact on all other sports, because the there are way more variables than in MLB.

- D0PPELGANGER


I am skeptical of someone who doesn't know much about a subject, but can make claims like this.

If there is more variables, there is more info and data to analyze. We are not there yet but its probably more important for sports like Hockey, Basketball and Soccer where people are constantly moving.


senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 27 @ 7:43 AM ET
No, it really is a lot more complex. People who understand sport may not understand statistics. So, when you create a measuring system that assumes all shots are created equal you will pay the consequences. A shot from the boards has the same value as a shot from the slot. So, just keep shooting and you will look strong on paper anyways.
- spatso


You need to move on from that argument, you are not keeping up.

the same people who poop on new stats are the same ones who use Plus minus to judge a players defensive abilities.
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Apr 27 @ 7:56 AM ET
Then how come NBA teams have enormous analytics departments and rely heavily on them?
- PhillySportsGuy



I admit I don't follow the NBA, the next NBA game I watch, will be my first.
golfingsince
Location: This message is Marwood approved!
Joined: 11.30.2011

Apr 27 @ 10:06 AM ET
The goal is to win 2, maybe 3 games in a series against one of them, that's basically a championship for the other 28 teams.
- Nucker101


I hate to break it to him that they use forensics not analytics.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Apr 27 @ 10:48 AM ET
No idea. Not even sure why all the other NBA teams bother playing when everyone has known since the last finals ended that it would be Cleveland and Golden State again. Analytics dont mean much when the leagues best players are gathered on two teams.
- TheTaoOfSemenko



I thought it was a lock that Golden State win last year.

You never know.

The odds are slim that anyone but those two win.

I bet you could make some $ betting on just those two teams. I wonder what the bodog odds were?
Tumbleweed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: avid reader of the daily douche news
Joined: 03.14.2014

Apr 27 @ 10:59 AM ET
I didn’t read tanner’s blog from today, but I’m guessing his hawt take is that booshea should win coach of the year.

For what booshai did what the junk roster he was given, I actually have to agree with tanner.
senstroll
Location: New Fan, Needs to watch Ballet, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 27 @ 11:29 AM ET
I didn’t read tanner’s blog from today, but I’m guessing his hawt take is that booshea should win coach of the year.

For what booshai did what the junk roster he was given, I actually have to agree with tanner.

- Tumbleweed


I agree give it to Bobby Boucher
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Apr 27 @ 11:36 AM ET
No, it really is a lot more complex. People who understand sport may not understand statistics. So, when you create a measuring system that assumes all shots are created equal you will pay the consequences. A shot from the boards has the same value as a shot from the slot. So, just keep shooting and you will look strong on paper anyways.
- spatso

You can find shot-quality stats as well, in the fancy boy databases.

For the purpose of tracking possession though, you care about how many actions occur with possession of the puck. What stats are tracked that can only happen when the puck is controlled by a player? Shots, blocked shots, and missed shots. So in that regard, shot quality doesn't matter.

And no player is gonna go out, and take useless shots just to improve their corsi, nor will any coach instruct them to do so.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Apr 27 @ 11:45 AM ET
You can find shot-quality stats as well, in the fancy boy databases.

For the purpose of tracking possession though, you care about how many actions occur with possession of the puck. What stats are tracked that can only happen when the puck is controlled by a player? Shots, blocked shots, and missed shots. So in that regard, shot quality doesn't matter.

And no player is gonna go out, and take useless shots just to improve their corsi, nor will any coach instruct them to do so.

- Feeling Glucky?



I've actually heard some interviews with coaches, talking about watching for this. Apparently the players are smartening up to agents using possession stats in contract negotiations. If the choice at the end of a blowout game is to just keep the puck, or toss a nice little softy in to the goalie, apparently many players are making it practice to toss in a softy.

These guys aren't stupid (well, okay, a few are), if they know that they can jack up their salary a few 100k by taking a few more shots, even if they know they're useless shots, they're going to do so.
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