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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 16 @ 10:09 AM ET
can i please get a useless playoff percentage update?
- the_cause2000



I suspect you ignore it, becasue it's to complicated for you to understand...........stick to points, and at the end of the season you can wonder what went wrong.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 16 @ 10:11 AM ET
And the Leafs have a better point percentage than the sens.

So why did you post the number of games played?

- Feeling Glucky?


Because "games in hand" are important, and puts a little more perspective on the standings.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 16 @ 10:12 AM ET
Because "games in hand" are important, and puts a little more perspective on the standings.
- Doppleganger

Games in hand are important when talking about points, yes.

But as you noted, point percentage takes that into account.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 16 @ 10:16 AM ET
Games in hand are important when talking about points, yes.

But as you noted, point percentage takes that into account.

- Feeling Glucky?



To a smart guy like you, but not the average person.
the_cause2000
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not quite my tempo
Joined: 02.26.2007

Jan 16 @ 11:26 AM ET
I suspect you ignore it, becasue it's to complicated for you to understand...........stick to points, and at the end of the season you can wonder what went wrong.
- Doppleganger

'too'
the_cause2000
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not quite my tempo
Joined: 02.26.2007

Jan 16 @ 11:31 AM ET
Because "games in hand" are important, and puts a little more perspective on the standings.
- Doppleganger

wouldnt your useless 'true standings' be more accurate if they calculated the quality of the competeion they've faced so far?
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 16 @ 2:59 PM ET
wouldnt your useless 'true standings' be more accurate if they calculated the quality of the competeion they've faced so far?
- the_cause2000


'competition '

It's not "my useless true standings" it's the NHL's calculation. (http://www.nhl.com/ice/te...ointPctg&viewName=summary)

With teams in the same division, they face pretty much the exact same competition as each other team in the same division..........and in toronto's case, take a look at their March schedule, and that's why their "chances of making the playoffs" is so low, compared to a few teams right behind them in points.

That's what SportsClubStats is all about.

It factors in a team’s odds of making the playoffs by looking at

1)How today’s games impact those odds.
2)How well they need to finish the season to have a shot.
3)It looks at the the quality of the competition they will be facing for the remainder of the season.

It's complicated, I know..............so I doubt you'll be able to grasp the gist of it.
the_cause2000
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not quite my tempo
Joined: 02.26.2007

Jan 16 @ 4:00 PM ET
'competition '

It's not "my useless true standings" it's the NHL's calculation. (http://www.nhl.com/ice/te...ointPctg&viewName=summary)

With teams in the same division, they face pretty much the exact same competition as each other team in the same division..........and in toronto's case, take a look at their March schedule, and that's why their "chances of making the playoffs" is so low, compared to a few teams right behind them in points.

That's what SportsClubStats is all about.

It factors in a team’s odds of making the playoffs by looking at

1)How today’s games impact those odds.
2)How well they need to finish the season to have a shot.
3)It looks at the the quality of the competition they will be facing for the remainder of the season.

It's complicated, I know..............so I doubt you'll be able to grasp the gist of it.

- Doppleganger


update please
muffin_man
Montreal Canadiens
Location: no problem, as s hole - Eric Engels, NY
Joined: 02.10.2007

Jan 16 @ 7:10 PM ET
'too'
- the_cause2000

ty u
the_cause2000
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not quite my tempo
Joined: 02.26.2007

Jan 19 @ 1:17 AM ET
Update?
muffin_man
Montreal Canadiens
Location: no problem, as s hole - Eric Engels, NY
Joined: 02.10.2007

Jan 19 @ 10:01 AM ET
Update?
- the_cause2000

Habs are an "average team" capable of playing like poop?
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 19 @ 10:26 AM ET
Update?
- the_cause2000

Leafs have a 33.7% chance of making the playoffs, sens are at 25.9%

Though, in fairness, I'll also include the 50/50 stats, that assume a win or loss are equally likely, and do not weight games based on other team's success. This may seem like a flawed approach, but when you consider that many good teams will lower their effort level when playing teams like the sens, it'll make things look better, and possibly more realistic, for dopp's boys.

51.5% chance the Leafs make the playoffs, 33.1% chance for the sens.

Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 19 @ 3:26 PM ET
Leafs have a 33.7% chance of making the playoffs, sens are at 25.9%

Though, in fairness, I'll also include the 50/50 stats, that assume a win or loss are equally likely, and do not weight games based on other team's success. This may seem like a flawed approach, but when you consider that many good teams will lower their effort level when playing teams like the sens, it'll make things look better, and possibly more realistic, for dopp's boys.

51.5% chance the Leafs make the playoffs, 33.1% chance for the sens.

- Feeling Glucky?


When you look at the road trip in March, you may want to reconsider.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 19 @ 9:20 PM ET
When you look at the road trip in March, you may want to reconsider.
- Doppleganger

Reconsider the stats?
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 19 @ 11:47 PM ET
Reconsider the stats?
- Feeling Glucky?

Your biased stats vs the SportClubStats
the_cause2000
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not quite my tempo
Joined: 02.26.2007

Jan 20 @ 8:32 AM ET
When you look at the road trip in March, you may want to reconsider.
- Doppleganger

you're hoping so hard for that road trip.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 20 @ 8:57 AM ET
Your biased stats vs the SportClubStats
- Doppleganger

I posted both sets of stats from sportsclubstats.

I'm not sure what you're referring to.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 20 @ 9:37 AM ET
you're hoping so hard for that road trip.
- the_cause2000



There is no hoping, the road trip, that all Atlantic division teams have or will make this season is coming up on the schedule for the leafs. Take a look at the record of the teams that have already made that trip.

Not too many points accumulated on that particular trip, and brought back home to the East.

I call it an educated guess, as the leafs have not shown they're any better at winning on the road ( 26th overall road record) than the teams that they're in a race with for the playoffs.

I'll leave the "hoping" up to you, and wish you good luck, as the leafs have shown
the_cause2000
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not quite my tempo
Joined: 02.26.2007

Jan 20 @ 9:41 AM ET
There is no hoping, the road trip, that all Atlantic division teams have or will make this season is coming up on the schedule for the leafs. Take a look at the record of the teams that have already made that trip.

Not too many points accumulated on that particular trip, and brought back home to the East.

I call it an educated guess, as the leafs have not shown they're any better at winning on the road ( 26th overall road record) than the teams that they're in a race with for the playoffs.

I'll leave the "hoping" up to you, and wish you good luck, as the leafs have shown

- Doppleganger


can i get a true standings update, for old time sake?
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 20 @ 9:53 AM ET
can i get a true standings update, for old time sake?
- the_cause2000

http://www.nhl.com/ice/te...ointPctg&viewName=summary
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 20 @ 10:08 AM ET
http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSAAAll&sort=pointPctg&viewName=summary
- Doppleganger

any reason you chose not to type it out?
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jan 20 @ 10:10 AM ET
In addition to having ownership that's willing to spend, the Leafs have a GM who will not trade away picks or prospects, unless other, better youngsters are coming in.

:

- Feeling Glucky?


By Mark Sutcliffe, OTTAWA CITIZEN

Chasing after expensive free agents and spending up to the cap is a “fool’s game,” according to Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk.

In an interview with TSN 1200 this week, Melnyk channelled Billy Beane, the spendthrift, analytical Oakland A’s general manager, when he said the Senators won’t get caught in the trap of trying to buy a championship.

“Any idiot can spend money,” said Melnyk. “There are so many idiots out there that spend to the cap every year. You know what? Take a look at where they are.

“It all comes down to cost per point. That’s the only stat that I care about: cost per point.”

About two years ago in the Citizen, I did an analysis of exactly that: the return on investment NHL teams were getting from the money they spent on players.

Over a seven-year stretch between the two lockouts, from 2005-06 through 2011-12, the Senators had good results on the ice, making the playoffs five times and going to the Stanley Cup final in 2007. But they also spent a lot of money. Despite operating in one of the smaller markets in the NHL, the Senators were 10th out of 30 teams in total payroll for the period. As a result, in terms of value for money, the Senators were in the middle of the pack, ranking 17th in the league at $534,000 in salary for every regular season point.

But if you zoom in on a four-year period during that stretch, you might find the genesis of Melnyk’s interest in the metric of payroll efficiency. From the year after Ottawa’s run to the Stanley Cup final to the end of the season, when the team dumped star players like Mike Fisher at the trade deadline, the Senators didn’t get good value for money. Melnyk spent near the cap and the Senators ranked 22nd, 29th, 26th and 25th in the league in cost per point.

Since then, the situation has improved. The Senators no longer spend the maximum and are getting better return. In 2011-12, the Senators jumped to fourth place in cost per point. Last year, during the lockout-shortened season, Ottawa was fifth.

This year, based on the current standings (after Saturday’s games), Ottawa ranks 11th in cost per point. That’s because the Senators are staying competitive despite having the 27th highest payroll in the league.

The team getting the best return on investment so far this year is, not surprisingly, Anaheim. The worst, of course, is Buffalo. This year’s cost-per-point numbers are aligned quite closely with the standings because there’s an unusual parity in NHL payrolls this year.

Every team this season is projected to spend at least 80 per cent of the cap and 25 of the 30 teams are at 90 per cent or higher. In 2011-12, the last full season of NHL hockey, the payroll of the low-budget Islanders was only 46 per cent of the cap. Only 15 teams spent at least 90 per cent.

In 2011-12, there was a $41.5 million gap between the lowest-spending team and the highest. This year, according to figures at CapGeek.com, the gap between low and high is only $17.8 million.

So using Melnyk’s logic, there are more fools today than two seasons ago. But a big factor in the higher spending is the fact that the salary cap was trimmed this year as part of the resolution to the labour dispute last season. The ceiling went up and then came back down, leaving many teams close to the top.

With all the teams bunched together in payroll this year, the metric is more influenced by performance on the ice than by spending carefully and strategically on players.

But even in other seasons, an efficient investment in players doesn’t guarantee a championship or even a playoff spot. The Islanders have kept their cost per point very low over the past few years, but it hasn’t translated into playoff success. The year the Senators were fourth in payroll efficiency, they finished eighth in their conference and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Only once in the last eight seasons has the team with the lowest cost per point won the Stanley Cup: last year, when Chicago won. In 2011-12, the Kings won despite being 21st in that statistic. The previous year, Boston was 19th in payroll efficiency when it won the Cup. That suggests there’s more to winning than just spending carefully.

Melnyk is wise to watch the return he’s getting on his investment in player salaries. And he’s right that many owners throw money around without considering the value they’re getting in return. But an efficient use of payroll money doesn’t always produce the desired results in the statistic that fans care about m
ost: championships.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jan 20 @ 10:12 AM ET

Only once in the last eight seasons has the team with the lowest cost per point won the Stanley Cup:

- Doppleganger

good use of bolding.
the_cause2000
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not quite my tempo
Joined: 02.26.2007

Jan 20 @ 10:54 AM ET
http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLSAAAll&sort=pointPctg&viewName=summary
- Doppleganger

this link does not work

Can you please type it out and bold the 2 teams in question

Can you also type out Kessel and Ryans stats in a way that emphasizes whatever mundane point you're trying to raise today

Thanks in advance
senstroll
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Jan 20 @ 11:20 AM ET
Ottawa has been on a hot streak, was 5 points back Of Toronto on Dec 20th.
1 month later after playing much better have climbed all the way up to 4 points back Of Toronto

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