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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 7 @ 3:12 PM ET
shot suppression
- daeth


where can we quickly look this up?
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: when it's a 3 taco-bell town, maybe they'll be ready, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Dec 7 @ 3:15 PM ET
where can we quickly look this up?
- senstroll

with all the analytic folks getting picked up by NHL teams and abandoning their websites that used to cover such things? good luck
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 7 @ 3:16 PM ET
http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...ncemen-best-exiting-zone/

The reigning Norris Trophy winner, and likely first back-to-back winner since Nicklas Lidstrom in 2008, is ripped constantly for being a defensive liability, but that doesn’t hold water here. Erik Karlsson is the second-highest event player in the NHL behind Victor Hedman, spends the second-least amount of time in his defensive zone of the players in this group, has a below-league average turnover rate in the defensive zone, and exits the defensive zone like it’s nothing. Combine this with his offensive ability? Just give him Norris number three now.

Saving the most interesting for last, young Morgan Rielly of the Toronto Maple Leafs has been very impressive this season. Of all the players in this breakdown, Rielly has the highest percentage of his defensive zone events accounting for recovering the puck, and exiting the zone. Rielly acquires and distributes the puck on 74.2 per cent of the plays he makes out of the defensive zone. His turnover rate is higher than the best of the best, but at just 22-years-old, he is incredibly impressive.

None of this paints a complete picture of defensive play, but it is a start to expanding our understanding of the kinds of plays that produce good defence, and perhaps what coaches are looking for when evaluating players with the so-called eye test.


¯\_(ツ)_/¯
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 7 @ 3:19 PM ET
Bobby Orr a big Karlsson booster

http://www.torontosun.com...rr-a-big-karlsson-booster

- D0PPELGANGER


Garrioch
anecdotal evidence and articles like this are fun but useless
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 7 @ 3:24 PM ET
gauging how good a player is defensivley is really hard. I mean actually understanding whats happening with the thousands of events in a game is difficult..and what equates to a good defensive player is not my area of expertise.

I am glad you are good at it

- senstroll


I agree, it's not an easy one to decipher. It certainly is much more difficult than looking at either raw or TeamRel Corsi, like some try to do. For so many reasons (beside the fact that it's not a strictly defensive metric, which is one big reason why it's not good for measuring how good defensively someone is). I'd hope you agree there.

I think it's a safe assumption that when a player is getting scored on, in absurd amounts, among the highest in the league, there is almost certainly something wrong. When someone is on a team that is pretty bad already defensively, and they're consistently, for many years, getting scored on even moreso with a particular dman on the ice, he's probably not doing something right. Now imagine when that player has his zone starts very heavily slanted in favour of the offensive zone. Says something no?

Effectively, if you take a player, start him in the offensive zone as much as possible, on a team that is terrible defensively, and their problems with letting goals in get even worse with him on the ice, it's a telling story to me. Now some argue sample size, but when that happens over almost half a decade, I kind of think that becomes a BS argument.

systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Dec 7 @ 3:29 PM ET
Has Pageau Girouxed yet? Spatso please tell me. Also, it's December.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Dec 7 @ 4:47 PM ET
I'd take Karlsson on the Leafs. Is this really a topic of debate? Really? Like....4 reals? Come on Leaf fans... don't SpatsoDo0Opps this....
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 7 @ 4:49 PM ET
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/defencemen-best-exiting-zone/



¯\_(ツ)_/¯

- senstroll



Clearly there were a few writers that disagreed with Andrew Berkshire.

And again, I'll point out, if he spent, as the writer puts it "the second-least amount of time in his defensive zone of the players in this group, has a below-league average turnover rate in the defensive zone, and exits the defensive zone like it’s nothing." then why have Senators always hemmorhaged goals with him on the ice? Even far worse than his teammates, which, by the way, were pretty bad to begin with?
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 7 @ 4:50 PM ET
I'd take Karlsson on the Leafs. Is this really a topic of debate? Really? Like....4 reals? Come on Leaf fans... don't SpatsoDo0Opps this....
- systemtool



I would, at a reduced salary. i.e. not at a salary that he's your go to number 1. There has to be room for a 2 way workhorse, the kind that you can build a cup winner around. Like Keith, Doughty, prime Chara, etc. Because, if he's playing that role for your team, you're not gonna be a contender. You're gonna be... the Ottawa Senators.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Dec 7 @ 4:53 PM ET
I would, at a reduced salary. i.e. not at a salary that he's your go to number 1. There has to be room for a 2 way workhorse, the kind that you can build a cup winner around. Like Keith, Doughty, prime Chara, etc. Because, if he's playing that role for your team, you're not gonna be a contender. You're gonna be... the Ottawa Senators.
- prock




I'd take Karlsson. Still. Only Sen player I've ever been jealous/envious of. A steal at his current salary. Tho he will demand raises soon.


Go Leaks Go!
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 7 @ 4:54 PM ET


I'd take Karlsson. Still.

Go Leaks Go!

- systemtool



Each to their own.

Mark my words, he'll never win a cup as the number 1 dman on a team.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Dec 7 @ 4:56 PM ET
Each to their own.

Mark my words, he'll never win a cup as the number 1 dman on a team.

- prock


I agree to that! But not because he isn't awesomes. It's because he's a Sen
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 7 @ 4:58 PM ET
I agree to that! But not because he isn't awesomes. It's because he's a Sen
- systemtool



Fun to watch for sure. When he's on the ice, lots of goals... for both teams. It makes for an entertaining game.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Dec 7 @ 5:02 PM ET
Fun to watch for sure. When he's on the ice, lots of goals... for both teams. It makes for an entertaining game.
- prock


Yup. Almost like Kessel. But a bit better and on D, which makes him more valuable. Sens are not a good team.
Nucker101
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: M'OUT
Joined: 09.26.2010

Dec 7 @ 5:06 PM ET
Would you guys sign Bautista for 3 years/50 million

No player or team option
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 7 @ 5:08 PM ET
Yup. Almost like Kessel. But a bit better and on D, which makes him more valuable. Sens are not a good team.
- systemtool



Exactly!!! Kessel!!! When you put Kessel beside Crosby, he was great as a complementary player.

I'm sure if you put Karlsson beside Keith, Doughty, even Weber this year, etc, he'd be the perfect complementary player.
systemtool
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Real men always have to poo, ON
Joined: 09.12.2007

Dec 7 @ 5:08 PM ET
Would you guys sign Bautista for 3 years/50 million

No player or team option

- Nucker101


I wouldn't.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: when it's a 3 taco-bell town, maybe they'll be ready, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Dec 7 @ 6:05 PM ET
Would you guys sign Bautista for 3 years/50 million

No player or team option

- Nucker101

last years bautista or 2011-2015 bautista?

no
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Dec 7 @ 6:37 PM ET

- D0PPELGANGER

I'm loving how you want to jump in on the meme, but don't want to use Trump as a joke.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 7 @ 6:52 PM ET
Would you guys sign Bautista for 3 years/50 million

No player or team option

- Nucker101



maybe 2 with the team option for a 3rd
2017 steamer projection 29hr wRC+ 128 and 2.9 war


Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Dec 7 @ 7:21 PM ET
There are few D Men in the league that log as much TOI than EK65 does. Of course he will be on the ice when goals are scored, for or against.

In fact there are only 4 D men (as of today) that have logged over 700 minutes (TOI) so far this season, Erik Karlsson being one of them.

Brent Burns with only 601:07 TOI leads NHL D Men in giveaways with 52, with 14 takeaways

Erik Karlsson with 709:08 TOI has only has 38 giveaways , with 18 takeaways

So I guess you could make a good argument that Brent Burns is a defensive liability, and Erik Karlsson is much better defensively if you look at Blocked shots (76 for EK & only 45 for BB) as well as the above stats.



I'd also suspect, if you were the GM of the leafs, you would also refuse Brent Burns if offered for free as well.

- D0PPELGANGER

RTSS stats are fairy useless without context.

Having high takeaways and high blocked shots can't happen without the other team having the puck a lot while you're on the ice.

Conversely, having high giveaway numbers is often a sign you're carrying the puck a lot. Most top pmds have high giveaway totals.

I'd be pretty curious to see his 5on5 wowy stats. Just not sure where to find them anymore.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: when it's a 3 taco-bell town, maybe they'll be ready, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Dec 7 @ 8:00 PM ET
maybe 2 with the team option for a 3rd
2017 steamer projection 29hr wRC+ 128 and 2.9 war

- senstroll

Now as much as I thought he sucked last year (based entirely on comparing him to his past self) he will for sure be better than whoever they replace him with.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 7 @ 8:10 PM ET
RTSS stats are fairy useless without context.

Having high takeaways and high blocked shots can't happen without the other team having the puck a lot while you're on the ice.

Conversely, having high giveaway numbers is often a sign you're carrying the puck a lot. Most top pmds have high giveaway totals.

I'd be pretty curious to see his 5on5 wowy stats. Just not sure where to find them anymore.

- Feeling Glucky?


with the insane variance from rink to rink RTSS stats are almost entirely useless.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Dec 8 @ 1:55 AM ET
Exactly!!! Kessel!!! When you put Kessel beside Crosby, he was great as a complementary player.

I'm sure if you put Karlsson beside Keith, Doughty, even Weber this year, etc, he'd be the perfect complementary player.

- prock


So, goofy! You actually sound kind of cute in your unique interpretation of reality.

Karlsson has already qualified in terms of his hall of fame entry level threshold (2 Norris). Having his best season ever. Leading Sens who are now within 3 points of Montreal. Karlsson has moved into top 10 in scoring.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Dec 8 @ 8:03 AM ET
So, goofy! You actually sound kind of cute in your unique interpretation of reality.

Karlsson has already qualified in terms of his hall of fame entry level threshold (2 Norris). Having his best season ever. Leading Sens who are now within 3 points of Montreal.

- spatso


blah blah blah. got thoroughly outplayed again last night. won on a lucky bounce late in the game.
lot more losses lately though. schedule already catching up to them.
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