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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 10 @ 9:31 AM ET
I was just about to start thinking about tanking, after i saw Turris prezel his leg .So random acts or luck does happen its just un measurable
- top shelf 15


But some people think analytics are the keys to the Cup, and in Hockey, analytics is just another tool, a tool that can be interpreted to bolster a scout's analysis of a player, or how a team is performing.

Yes it works well in a structured game like baseball, where a batter stands motionless, one on one vs the pitcher, while trying to hit a ball, but not so much in hockey where scoring and defending is a team game, and never happens the same way twice.


Analytics in NOT the holy grail of building a Cup winner.


Hockey analytics are ‘media driven’
"There are way too many variables and it's way too instinctive, so you have to spend some time watching that particular player if you want some thoughts on him and watch your team and not convolute it with getting a little too crazy here with the technology."
http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...alytics-are-media-driven/
top shelf 15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 11.23.2008

Dec 10 @ 9:37 AM ET
But some people think analytics are the keys to the Cup, and in Hockey, analytics is just another tool, a tool that can be interpreted to bolster a scout's analysis of a player, or how a team is performing.

Yes it works well in a structured game like baseball, where a batter stands motionless, one on one vs the pitcher, while trying to hit a ball, but not so much in hockey where scoring and defending is a team game, and never happens the same way twice.


Analytics in NOT the holy grail of building a Cup winner.

- D0PPELGANGER
Agreed ,some things like a goaltender just being hot ,at the right time .Are what can make or break a team .Random acts of luck or good fortune ,happen its why we play the games and not just issue the cup to the team with the best record at the end of the reg season
top shelf 15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 11.23.2008

Dec 10 @ 9:42 AM ET
The Habs are lucky that Condon is doing a fine job so far.
- Pecafan Fan
Its not luck ,that top 4 you guys have .Has been so much more dynamic than last season,s.Having 4 guys that can skate and handle the puck is a must now ,i see this every night with my team .

We are so easy to forecheck its not funny ,all teams do is wait for our 2nd pair to come over the boards and dump it in Cowen or Wiercioch,s corner .Then cue the keystone cops routine ,we spend entire shifts just trying to move the puck out of or zone .Surrending shot after shot ,chance after chance .If we could ever get that good lhd ,this team would look so much better
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 10 @ 9:50 AM ET
Its not luck ,that top 4 you guys have .Has been so much more dynamic than last season,s.Having 4 guys that can skate and handle the puck is a must now ,i see this every night with my team .

We are so easy to forecheck its not funny ,all teams do is wait for our 2nd pair to come over the boards and dump it in Cowen or Wiercioch,s corner .Then cue the keystone cops routine ,we spend entire shifts just trying to move the puck out of or zone .Surrending shot after shot ,chance after chance .If we could ever get that good lhd ,this team would look so much better

- top shelf 15



I can tell you watch the games, and are not just relying on analytics.
top shelf 15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 11.23.2008

Dec 10 @ 10:08 AM ET
I can tell you watch the games, and are not just relying on analytics.
- D0PPELGANGER
That second pairing has been the fulcrum, in which i believe most of our failures come from .Everything from possession stats,to shots against stem from that LHD slot in our top 4 .Just as the goon ,the big ,slow,limited skill, physical defensive defender,s time has come and gone.Too bad nobody has told Jared Cowen this
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 10 @ 10:53 AM ET
I can tell you watch the games, and are not just relying on analytics.
- D0PPELGANGER



D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 10 @ 11:57 AM ET

- senstroll



Can you give me the analytic breakdown on how Reimer fares vs a left handed shooters coming down the right side vs the same shooters who comes down the opposite side but go to their backhand............and vice versa.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 10 @ 1:07 PM ET
Can you give me the analytic breakdown on how Reimer fares vs a left handed shooters coming down the right side vs the same shooters who comes down the opposite side but go to their backhand............and vice versa.
- D0PPELGANGER


No, you can look into that if you want. If its info you are interested in knowing.

but here is a good twitter discussion between some stats proponents..who dont watch the games (but actually watch a lot)

Stuff like this that you can get from looking at data. Garret makes a good point. Defense is stopping the other team from doing what they are trying to do (score).. shot attempts (or lack of attempts) helps you see what D are making a difference in the bigger picture. But its hard to watch a game and see that actually happening, because we are looking for other things to happen.


Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
I've been thinking lately about eye test vs stats for defencemen, and I think part of the problem is that players are evaluated on


Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
what's most obvious visually. For forwards, it's easy to see who scores a lot. Offensive skill is more or less easy to identify.

Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
But what makes for good defensive play is actually things you *don't* really see. So, for example, Roman Polak throws big hits,

Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
clears the front of the net, etc. Those things aren't very important, but they're easy to see, so fans/coaches like them.


Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
But those things that are hard to pick out visually, like having patience, being in the right spot, etc., are actually far more important.

Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
On the other hand you get someone like Marincin. Marincin does things that are hard to pick out visually, like preventing zone entries.

Draglikepull ‏@draglikepull
And this is how someone like Stralman can play well for years with almost no one noticing. (/end)

James Mirtle ‏@mirtle
@draglikepull it's the Stralman situation

Stephen Burtch ‏@SteveBurtch
@mirtle @draglikepull Stralman literally made a positive impact in every year going back to his rookie season. It's absurd really.

James Mirtle ‏@mirtle
@draglikepull you see it with Gardiner. The good plays he makes - the short turnaround passes in neutral zone - aren't noticed

Garret Hohl ‏@GarretHohl
@draglikepull Defense is the absence of the other team's offense. It's trying to see what doesn't happen.

Garret Hohl ‏@GarretHohl
To @travisyost piece. Defense is always a difficult thing to evaluate without the help of numbers.

Garret Hohl ‏@GarretHohl
How do you see what doesn't happen? You can see the plays a player does in certain situations that can lead to this, but that's it.

Garret Hohl ‏@GarretHohl
This is why stuff like Staple's Nielsen #'s fail. It is evaluating defense looking exclusively at reactions when in defensive situations.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 10 @ 1:53 PM ET
But some people think analytics are the keys to the Cup, and in Hockey, analytics is just another tool, a tool that can be interpreted to bolster a scout's analysis of a player, or how a team is performing.

Yes it works well in a structured game like baseball, where a batter stands motionless, one on one vs the pitcher, while trying to hit a ball, but not so much in hockey where scoring and defending is a team game, and never happens the same way twice.


Analytics in NOT the holy grail of building a Cup winner.


Hockey analytics are ‘media driven’
"There are way too many variables and it's way too instinctive, so you have to spend some time watching that particular player if you want some thoughts on him and watch your team and not convolute it with getting a little too crazy here with the technology."
http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...alytics-are-media-driven/

- D0PPELGANGER



counter to your baseball point, Hockey happens really fast and our Eyes and memory cant possibly process all that is happening. taking these data point down to later use actually makes it more valuable to hockey.
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 10 @ 3:55 PM ET
counter to your baseball point, Hockey happens really fast and our Eyes and memory cant possibly process all that is happening. taking these data point down to later use actually makes it more valuable to hockey.
- senstroll



So when a left handed batter with runners in scoring position, comes up to the plate in the second game of a double hitter, the manager can use analytics to chase which pitcher is best suited to face him and how to pitch to him as well.

But when Patrick Kane is coming down the ice, on his offside, late in the third period, how does analytics help a third pairing defenceman determine how to defend against him, late in the third period when the game is tied?


Point is analytics can be used, to increase the Odds, in your favour in a game like Baseball, because you can reference them, and make a change to the defence, or in how and who to pitch. Whereas in Hockey analytics can rarely be used in game situations. It can be used after the fact to dissect a game, and draw some vague conclusions to support anything you want to support.


senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 10 @ 4:18 PM ET
So when a left handed batter with runners in scoring position, comes up to the plate in the second game of a double hitter, the manager can use analytics to chase which pitcher is best suited to face him and how to pitch to him as well.

But when Patrick Kane is coming down the ice, on his offside, late in the third period, how does analytics help a third pairing defenceman determine how to defend against him, late in the third period when the game is tied?


Point is analytics can be used, to increase the Odds, in your favour in a game like Baseball, because you can reference them, and make a change to the defence, or in how and who to pitch. Whereas in Hockey analytics can rarely be used in game situations. It can be used after the fact to dissect a game, and draw some vague conclusions to support anything you want to support.

- D0PPELGANGER


can be used to see who is most effective in certain situations in games. Matchups, zone starts.. its really no different at all




Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Dec 10 @ 6:04 PM ET
No, because I never did.
- D0PPELGANGER

Did you know that missing memories are a sign of dementia?
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 11 @ 9:02 AM ET
So when a left handed batter with runners in scoring position, comes up to the plate in the second game of a double hitter, the manager can use analytics to chase which pitcher is best suited to face him and how to pitch to him as well.

But when Patrick Kane is coming down the ice, on his offside, late in the third period, how does analytics help a third pairing defenceman determine how to defend against him, late in the third period when the game is tied?


Point is analytics can be used, to increase the Odds, in your favour in a game like Baseball, because you can reference them, and make a change to the defence, or in how and who to pitch. Whereas in Hockey analytics can rarely be used in game situations. It can be used after the fact to dissect a game, and draw some vague conclusions to support anything you want to support.

- D0PPELGANGER


what do you use to determine if someone is a good defensive player?
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 11 @ 9:06 AM ET
can be used to see who is most effective in certain situations in games. Matchups, zone starts.. its really no different at all
- senstroll



So a batter standing at home plate, and a pitcher brought in with advice on how to pitch to this particular batter in the situation they're facing is exactly the same as Jake Gardneir facing Steven Stankos rushing towards him at high speed, on his offside,while defending a delayed penalty call with the goaltender pulled.

Yeah no difference at all
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 11 @ 9:07 AM ET
what do you use to determine if someone is a good defensive player?
- senstroll


By watching them play in all their games, and see how they perform in different situations.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 11 @ 9:08 AM ET
So a batter standing at home plate, and a pitcher brought in with advice on how to pitch to this particular batter in the situation they're facing is exactly the same as Jake Gardneir facing Steven Stankos rushing towards him at high speed, on his offside,while defending a delayed penalty call with the goaltender pulled.

Yeah no difference at all

- D0PPELGANGER



you are truly special
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 11 @ 9:10 AM ET
By watching them play in all their games, and see how they perform in different situations.
- D0PPELGANGER


Great
but what are you specifically looking for?
What are you using to determine who is better?

"How they preform" tells me nothing about the method you use.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 11 @ 9:15 AM ET
By watching them play in all their games, and see how they perform in different situations.
- D0PPELGANGER



Also is if fair to say you dont watch "all their games"? its probably a fair statement.
Also, other players in the league. I dont think you watch every NHL game since games all go on at the same time it impossible.

how do you know what other players are like? how can you form an opinion on how a player is defensivley if you are not watching every game?
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 11 @ 9:55 AM ET
Also is if fair to say you dont watch "all their games"? its probably a fair statement.
Also, other players in the league. I dont think you watch every NHL game since games all go on at the same time it impossible.

how do you know what other players are like? how can you form an opinion on how a player is defensivley if you are not watching every game?

- senstroll


I PVR ALL Senator games, and watch them, except for when I'm out of town for a week in November.


senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 11 @ 10:05 AM ET
I PVR ALL Senator games, and watch them, except for when I'm out of town for a week in November.
- D0PPELGANGER


amazing..

so back to my other questions

In regards to defensive play
but what are you specifically looking for?
What are you using to determine who is better?

Also, other players in the league. I dont think you watch every NHL game since games all go on at the same time its impossible.

how do you know what other players for other teams are like? how can you form an opinion on how a player is defensivley if you are not watching every NHL game?
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Dec 11 @ 12:48 PM ET
amazing..

so back to my other questions

In regards to defensive play
but what are you specifically looking for?
What are you using to determine who is better?

Also, other players in the league. I dont think you watch every NHL game since games all go on at the same time its impossible.

how do you know what other players for other teams are like? how can you form an opinion on how a player is defensivley if you are not watching every NHL game?

- senstroll

Remember when watching a player wasn't good enough to prove they were good, you needed to back it up with stats like +/-... Right up until you tried the same logic with Sens players? Then you had to just watch and look at nothing else?



Pepperidge farms remembers.
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 11 @ 4:13 PM ET
amazing..

so back to my other questions

In regards to defensive play
but what are you specifically looking for?
What are you using to determine who is better?

Also, other players in the league. I dont think you watch every NHL game since games all go on at the same time its impossible.

how do you know what other players for other teams are like? how can you form an opinion on how a player is defensivley if you are not watching every NHL game?

- senstroll


I don't care about other players, on other teams, and that's why I don't comment on them, other than to ask fans of a particular team (like yourself) or comment on an opinion from a sportswriter.
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 11 @ 4:17 PM ET
Remember when watching a player wasn't good enough to prove they were good, you needed to back it up with stats like +/-... Right up until you tried the same logic with Sens players? Then you had to just watch and look at nothing else?



Pepperidge farms remembers.

- Feeling Glucky?


Never said that plus/minus was the be all and end all of determining a players defensive ability.

I remember commenting on a game vs Washington when Karlsson made a number of great defensive plays, takeaways etc, and someone who had not watched the game seemed to think that they knew more about how he played in that game, based only on stats.

Of course that was ridiculous.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Dec 12 @ 8:13 AM ET
Never said that plus/minus was the be all and end all of determining a players defensive ability.

I remember commenting on a game vs Washington when Karlsson made a number of great defensive plays, takeaways etc, and someone who had not watched the game seemed to think that they knew more about how he played in that game, based only on stats.

Of course that was ridiculous.

- D0PPELGANGER

Yes, I seem to recall that person using your arguments from an earlier game, verbatim, to laugh at their idiocy.
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 12 @ 1:04 PM ET
Yes, I seem to recall that person using your arguments from an earlier game, verbatim, to laugh at their idiocy.
- Feeling Glucky?



My argument(s) has always been that watching the game gives you better insight to the players, and how the game was played, rather than looking at stats alone.

Besides, there has always been a bias in stats compiled by Home team Statisticians. It seems Goaltenders have better home stats that they do away stats, and the same can be said of all other stats viewed by the home town Statistician.
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