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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Dec 9 @ 3:54 PM ET
How many time a game do you see a puck deflect on a skate and yet end on a player's stick regardless and that play turns into a goal or a scoring chance?

Hockey is BASED on luck. Every puck bounce is random.

It's useless and impossible to calculate how lucky/unlucky a team is. That's just pure nonsense.

This who analytics thing is getting (frank)ing ridiculous.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 9 @ 3:59 PM ET
that has nothing to do with their power play and penalty killing percentages
- Pecafan Fan



But its all used to figure out how much of a teams performace is true talent vs luck etc
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 9 @ 4:01 PM ET
How many time a game do you see a puck deflect on a skate and yet end on a player's stick regardless and that play turns into a goal or a scoring chance?

Hockey is BASED on luck. Every puck bounce is random.

It's useless and impossible to calculate how lucky/unlucky a team is. That's just pure nonsense.

This who analytics thing is getting (frank)ing ridiculous.

- Pecafan Fan


thats the point, you can to a degree look into those things. its worth knowing if where your team is in the standings is sustainable or and if you are likley to regress.

Like the leafs last season Fired RC even though they were on a decent streak. there is value in knowing that stuff
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Dec 9 @ 4:01 PM ET
But its all used to figure out how much of a teams performace is true talent vs luck etc
- senstroll


It's 100% pure bullpoop.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 9 @ 4:35 PM ET
It's 100% pure bullpoop.
- Pecafan Fan


so..Hockey is luck based but you in no way can quantify any of it.

I hope many teams agree with you
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Dec 9 @ 4:38 PM ET
so..Hockey is luck based but you in no way can quantify any of it.

I hope many teams agree with you

- senstroll


You can look at it after the fact and say "well, that was luck".
But you can't predict luck. Or bad luck.

It's unbelievable how lately, it seems everything is becoming "relevant" simply because some Joe decided to create a grid that quantifies it.
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Dec 9 @ 4:45 PM ET
The habs have been unlucky that Price got injured.
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Dec 9 @ 4:46 PM ET
The Habs are lucky that Condon is doing a fine job so far.
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Dec 9 @ 4:46 PM ET
Now, could someone put this in a grid and tell me if the bad luck/ good luck the habs are having is sustainable or not?

I really need to know. Because, stats.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 9 @ 5:15 PM ET
Now, could someone put this in a grid and tell me if the bad luck/ good luck the habs are having is sustainable or not?

I really need to know. Because, stats.

- Pecafan Fan



Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Dec 9 @ 7:03 PM ET

- senstroll

So... creating their own luck?

This is confusing...
golfingsince
Location: The losers tonight are the people.-QP
Joined: 11.30.2011

Dec 9 @ 8:25 PM ET
The Oilers issue is failing at everything but the draft lottery. IMO, the Leafs 2015 draft is something Edmonton has never done. Just fantastic depth. Their 5th round pick is looking like a Star for the Quebec Ramparts.
- RogerRoeper


And if you witnessed Oilers fans chirping about how great their drafts were before any of them ever played pro you'd realize how funny your post is.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: when it's a 3 taco-bell town, maybe they'll be ready, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Dec 9 @ 8:28 PM ET
And if you witnessed Oilers fans chirping about how great their drafts were before any of them ever played pro you'd realize how funny your post is.
- golfingsince

To be fair Edmonton is one of the only teams in history to draft first every year and never get better. I don't get this comparison.
golfingsince
Location: The losers tonight are the people.-QP
Joined: 11.30.2011

Dec 9 @ 8:32 PM ET
To be fair Edmonton is one of the only teams in history to draft first every year and never get better. I don't get this comparison.
- daeth


Oilers fans went on about all of their picks, not just the 1st overalls. They were all going to be stars. Many teams have drafter near the top for a decade without getting to be anything more than a fringe playoff team.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: when it's a 3 taco-bell town, maybe they'll be ready, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Dec 9 @ 8:36 PM ET
Oilers fans went on about all of their picks, not just the 1st overalls. They were all going to be stars. Many teams have drafter near the top for a decade without getting to be anything more than a fringe playoff team.
- golfingsince

Most teams with top prospect pools end up having decent players in the end. Edmonton is just a very special butterfly.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Dec 9 @ 8:43 PM ET
So... creating their own luck?

This is confusing...

- Pecafan Fan

Point is, if Montreal's luck runs out, they're still a good team and can withstand it, so they won't regress too much.
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 9 @ 11:56 PM ET
How many time a game do you see a puck deflect on a skate and yet end on a player's stick regardless and that play turns into a goal or a scoring chance?

Hockey is BASED on luck. Every puck bounce is random.

It's useless and impossible to calculate how lucky/unlucky a team is. That's just pure nonsense.

This who analytics thing is getting (frank)ing ridiculous.

- Pecafan Fan


People who only look at analytics, and don't actually watch the team in question play their games, THINK they know how that team is playing..........based 100% on stats and analytics.

This could NOT be further from the truth. Stats and analytics might reflect mildly at best on how a team played during one game, here and there.......... but because of the randomness of hockey, a lot of people, in hockey, don't put to much stock in analytics .


Analytics work well in a structured game like baseball, but in hockey, not so much.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Dec 10 @ 12:53 AM ET
And if you witnessed Oilers fans chirping about how great their drafts were before any of them ever played pro you'd realize how funny your post is.
- golfingsince

You saw Oilers fans chirping about their first overall picks. That wasn't my point at all.

Statistically the Leafs have prospects AFTER the first round accomplishing things Oilers pick never do.
RogerRoeper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 03.27.2007

Dec 10 @ 12:54 AM ET
Oilers fans went on about all of their picks, not just the 1st overalls. They were all going to be stars. Many teams have drafter near the top for a decade without getting to be anything more than a fringe playoff team.
- golfingsince


They really didn't. They had parties over winning the lottery. Your point makes zero sense.

I never once heard Oiler fans bragging about anything after the first round.

The Leafs 5th round pick is doing this for the Quebec Ramparts:

2015-16 Qu├ębec 29 18 35 53
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Dec 10 @ 6:16 AM ET
People who only look at analytics, and don't actually watch the team in question play their games, THINK they know how that team is playing..........based 100% on stats and analytics.

This could NOT be further from the truth. Stats and analytics might reflect mildly at best on how a team played during one game, here and there.......... but because of the randomness of hockey, a lot of people, in hockey, don't put to much stock in analytics .


Analytics work well in a structured game like baseball, but in hockey, not so much.

- D0PPELGANGER

remember when you used to base your entire opinion on a team by the number of OT wins they had?
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 10 @ 8:04 AM ET
People who only look at analytics, and don't actually watch the team in question play their games, THINK they know how that team is playing..........based 100% on stats and analytics.

This could NOT be further from the truth. Stats and analytics might reflect mildly at best on how a team played during one game, here and there.......... but because of the randomness of hockey, a lot of people, in hockey, don't put to much stock in analytics .


Analytics work well in a structured game like baseball, but in hockey, not so much.

- D0PPELGANGER


your first statement is complete bullpoop. the people doing the best work in analytics watch more hockey than you or I.

Stats and analytics reflect what you or I watched..someone just took that info down on paper.

Randomness of hockey is factored into a lot of the work being done. this isnt new info that only a few people know.

And you have no way of knowing how analystics work in hockey because you do not pay attention to it. how can you come to that conclusion without knowing a thing about it?

you will use Plus minus to proclaim how good a player is defensivley, but when someone expands on stuff like that and uses shots and goal differentials and looks at shot suppression its all nonsense and doesnt work.
top shelf 15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 11.23.2008

Dec 10 @ 8:35 AM ET
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2011/8/14/2363512/hockey-is-deterministic-and-luck-based

http://blog.philbirnbaum....ent-in-nhl-standings.html


randomness.
Subban breaks his leg.. would you say thats unlucky?

- senstroll
I was just about to start thinking about tanking, after i saw Turris prezel his leg .So random acts or luck does happen its just un measurable
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Dec 10 @ 9:03 AM ET
I was just about to start thinking about tanking, after i saw Turris prezel his leg .So random acts or luck does happen its just un measurable
- top shelf 15


Games lost to injury can be counted
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Dec 10 @ 9:07 AM ET
Games lost to injury can be counted
- senstroll


but they could be lucky during those games...
D0PPELGANGER
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.06.2015

Dec 10 @ 9:22 AM ET
remember when you used to base your entire opinion on a team by the number of OT wins they had?
- Feeling Glucky?


No, because I never did.
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