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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
senstroll
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 25 @ 1:29 PM ET
Underlying stats are bad for Ottawa right now

Ottawa at 44% corsi and 103 PDO
Toronto at 47% corsi and 97% PDO

points to the wins coming from bad possession and highly unsustainable sh%/sv%

Ottawa is basically puling the leafs trick

- senstroll



Followup to this

Rob Vollman @robvollmanNHL ยท 47m 47 minutes ago
Teams out-performing their puck possession numbers so far: OTT, MTL, LA, NSH, ANA. Also somewhat CGY, DET, DAL.


prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 25 @ 2:08 PM ET
Followup to this
- senstroll


It still bothers me that it is implied that if possession says one thing results will follow.
Nucker101
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FULL SEND!
Joined: 09.26.2010

Oct 25 @ 2:11 PM ET
It still bothers me that it is implied that if possession says one thing results will follow.
- prock


Yeah, some teams like ANA just flat out score more efficiently than other teams. While teams like NJ and VAN last year scored good possession numbers but their fans could tell you that they sucked offensively so it didn't really matter.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 25 @ 2:27 PM ET
Yeah, some teams like ANA just flat out score more efficiently than other teams. While teams like NJ and VAN last year scored good possession numbers but their fans could tell you that they sucked offensively so it didn't really matter.
- Nucker101



And maybe, just maybe, that's because Anaheim has some of the beat snipers in the league, and nj doesn't have too many guys capable of putting the puck in the net. Its not complicated.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 25 @ 2:34 PM ET
Like Senstroll said, not much info there, but based on that limited amount, I'll say this:

Team A likely either has a bad goalie, or lower-end offensive talent. They play a good system, but probably won't make it too far in the playoffs. Now, if their PDO is lower than their PDO in previous seasons, and there hasn't been much of a roster change, I'd say they're probably going to get better as the season goes on.

Team B - these guys are probably cup contenders. Good systems, good goalie/offensive talent. But again, you gotta get a frame of reference. Is their PDO much higher than the previous season's? Maybe they're just lucky right now.

Team C - Likely a lottery team, but see above.

Team D - Could be contending for the playoffs, but chances are they won't make it far, unless things go well for them... Like we saw with the Leafs, if their goalie gets hurt or the scoring dries up, things can get out of hand quickly.



Side note: I don't buy into PDO being "luck"... you've gotta look at it on a team by team basis. A lot of stats guys set the bar at 1000... if you're above 1000 you're like;y going to regress, if you're below it, you're likely going to improve over time. IMO, if a team consistently has a high PDO, you've gotta adjust that bar to their own average. If they go above their average, they're like;y going to regress back to it, if they're below it, they're likely going to go back up to it.

- Feeling Glucky?




I'm wondering if you just forgot to answer my question, last Tuesday, or just avoided it for some reason?

just in case you forgot.......

How long into the season would someone wait to try and make predictions for the rest of the season, as to how a team's season is going to unfold, based on these "advanced" stats?

Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 25 @ 4:59 PM ET
I'm wondering if you just forgot to answer my question, last Tuesday, or just avoided it for some reason?

just in case you forgot.......

How long into the season would someone wait to try and make predictions for the rest of the season, as to how a team's season is going to unfold, based on these "advanced" stats?

- Doppleganger

I thought I did answer it. I'd say a good 20 Games into the season, there'd be a good enough sample size to have accurate stats, but it's still by no means an accurate tool on a game by game basis, given how many variables there are in hockey.

It does give you a good idea of which team will do better over the long term.
daeth
Nashville Predators
Location: shambles, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Oct 25 @ 6:18 PM ET
There are websites that update them on a daily/weekly basis, just bookmark one
- Feeling Glucky?

it
is
not
worth
it
!

Part of the reason I have GCL is so that I don't have to put any time/effort into finding a stream or setting anything up. If I really didn't want to pay anything at all I could go a step further and just find VLC streams of the games in HD, but I much prefer my current setup.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 25 @ 10:06 PM ET
I thought I did answer it. I'd say a good 20 Games into the season, there'd be a good enough sample size to have accurate stats, but it's still by no means an accurate tool on a game by game basis, given how many variables there are in hockey.

It does give you a good idea of which team will do better over the long term.

- Feeling Glucky?



Would you not now say that the "Playoff Chances" that ClubsportsStats calculates are somewhat more reliable than you first thought a few years back, at around the 25 game mark?

By the time you get top mid December, the projects of a teams playoff chances have been pretty much around the 85-90% mark for a number of seasons now.











BTW

Ottawa .750
toronto .438
senstroll
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 27 @ 7:22 AM ET
It still bothers me that it is implied that if possession says one thing results will follow.
- prock


so far its the best we have for predicting future success
nothing is going to be 100%
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 27 @ 10:47 AM ET
Would you not now say that the "Playoff Chances" that ClubsportsStats calculates are somewhat more reliable than you first thought a few years back, at around the 25 game mark?

By the time you get top mid December, the projects of a teams playoff chances have been pretty much around the 85-90% mark for a number of seasons now.











BTW

Ottawa .750
toronto .438

- Doppleganger

Are you suggesting that more data means less reliable stats?
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 27 @ 10:55 AM ET
Are you suggesting that more data means less reliable stats?
- Feeling Glucky?



We've had this debate a couple of times, over the past number of years.


If you look at the "Playoff chances" predictions in mid December, the projected 16 teams that are calculated to make the playoffs, at that time, are pretty much the same 16 teams that eventually do.

No not always 100% accurate, but pretty much 14 of the 16 teams.

And the closer to the end of the season, the more accurate it becomes.


You've totally dismissed these "Playoff chances" predictions, but now you totally embrace these now popular "advanced stats".

It's like you're okay with one, but not the other, and I'm just wondering if you've changed you perception of ClubSportsStats.


http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 27 @ 11:18 AM ET
We've had this debate a couple of times, over the past number of years.


If you look at the "Playoff chances" predictions in mid December, the projected 16 teams that are calculated to make the playoffs, at that time, are pretty much the same 16 teams that eventually do.

No not always 100% accurate, but pretty much 14 of the 16 teams.

And the closer to the end of the season, the more accurate it becomes.


You've totally dismissed these "Playoff chances" predictions, but now you totally embrace these now popular "advanced stats".

It's like you're okay with one, but not the other, and I'm just wondering if you've changed you perception of ClubSportsStats.


http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

- Doppleganger

Please find my comments, dismissing that site.


don't forget that they had the Leafs as a near lock to make the playoffs near the end of last season, and you where doing your best to argue against that. Feel free to dig that up, too.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 27 @ 11:23 AM ET
Please find my comments, dismissing that site.


don't forget that they had the Leafs as a near lock to make the playoffs near the end of last season, and you where doing your best to argue against that. Feel free to dig that up, too.

- Feeling Glucky?



Really?

A team that won only two of their last 14 games, and I was arguing that the leafs were a lock for the playoffs???


http://www.sportsclubstat...anceWillMakePlayoffs.html


Wake up!!! You're dreaming......
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 27 @ 11:32 AM ET
Really?

A team that won only two of their last 14 games, and I was arguing that the leafs were a lock for the playoffs???


http://www.sportsclubstat...anceWillMakePlayoffs.html


Wake up!!! You're dreaming......

- Doppleganger

Nice try. Before they slumped, they were a near lock according to that site... but no surprise to see you try and duck that.

From what I remember, pretty much the only time you were talking about how awesome that site was, happened to be during the Leaf's injury-ridden skid in late fall.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 27 @ 11:47 AM ET
Nice try. Before they slumped, they were a near lock according to that site... but no surprise to see you try and duck that.

From what I remember, pretty much the only time you were talking about how awesome that site was, happened to be during the Leaf's injury-ridden skid in late fall.

- Feeling Glucky?




You said "near the end of the season".........do you consider 25 games left in a team's season, "near the end of the season"?

Because that's about when the leafs slipped below the 50% mark for their playoff chances, according to CSS.


Do you think 50% is a lock??


Try and make some kind of sense here, as your memory does not connect with reality.






BTW

Ottawa .643 (9th overall)
totonto .438 (25th overall)
daeth
Nashville Predators
Location: shambles, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Oct 27 @ 11:49 AM ET
I find the standings to be as reliable as that website. The closer it gets to the end of the year the more likely the current standings will hold up too.

Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 27 @ 11:49 AM ET
You said "near the end of the season".........do you consider 25 games left in a team's season, "near the end of the season"?

Because that's about when the leafs slipped below the 50% mark for their playoff chances, according to CSS.


Do you think 50% is a lock??


Try and make some kind of sense here, as your memory does not connect with reality.






BTW

Ottawa .643 (9th overall)
totonto .438 (25th overall)

- Doppleganger


I'd say over 75% of the way through the season is near the end, yes. Would you not?


Where'd you get 25 games from?

They were at over 94% to make the playoffs with 14 games left, according to that site.

Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 27 @ 11:50 AM ET
I find the standings to be as reliable as that website. The closer it gets to the end of the year the more likely the current standings will hold up too.


- daeth

yup.
BingoLady
Montreal Canadiens
Location: 13-2-1, NB
Joined: 07.15.2009

Oct 27 @ 11:56 AM ET
I find the standings to be as reliable as that website. The closer it gets to the end of the year the more likely the current standings will hold up too.


- daeth

What are the Habs chances?
daeth
Nashville Predators
Location: shambles, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Oct 27 @ 11:59 AM ET
What are the Habs chances?
- BingoLady

Based on the standings and their current play, pretty good.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 27 @ 12:03 PM ET
I find the standings to be as reliable as that website. The closer it gets to the end of the year the more likely the current standings will hold up too.


- daeth



However, if you look at that site's projections, of which teams will make the playoffs in Mid December, it pretty much holds true.

A team or two will slip out, in each conference, and another team or two replace them by the end of the season.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 27 @ 12:04 PM ET
What are the Habs chances?
- BingoLady



Pretty much a lock.
daeth
Nashville Predators
Location: shambles, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Oct 27 @ 12:08 PM ET
However, if you look at that site's projections, of which teams will make the playoffs in Mid December, it pretty much holds true.

A team or two will slip out, in each conference, and another team or two replace them by the end of the season.

- Doppleganger

I actually like the website, it's fun to look at. With all of their fancy algorithms it still isn't really any more accurate at predicting playoff teams than simply using the standings though. It's just fun seeing a %, that's all.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 27 @ 12:45 PM ET
However, if you look at that site's projections, of which teams will make the playoffs in Mid December, it pretty much holds true.

A team or two will slip out, in each conference, and another team or two replace them by the end of the season.

- Doppleganger

so you're saying a better sample means worse results?
Cape Breton Bruins
Boston Bruins
Location: Friends with a GREAT MAN, AB
Joined: 11.26.2008

Oct 27 @ 2:18 PM ET
What are the Habs chances?
- BingoLady

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