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Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 1:21 PM ET
tell you what, when I see people treating it like it's the only thing that matters, I'll point it out.

I will say this.

This post:



certainly seems to suggest that CORSI is more important than anything else.

- prock


so right there I am using 3 different stats

not everything in stat form is "Corsi"
you just lump all stats together ZOMG he uses CORSI!

zone start, fenwick, Corsi rel, gf%.. WOWY stats .. its not all CORSI!!!
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:25 PM ET
so right there I am using 3 different stats

not everything in stat form is "Corsi"
you just lump all stats together ZOMG he uses CORSI!

zone start, fenwick, Corsi rel, gf%.. WOWY stats .. its not all CORSI!!!

- senstroll



You haven't "used" PDO (sh% and sv%). You've dismissed them. i.e. good sh% or sv%, doesn't matter. It's unsustainable, because CORSI is bad!

That blatantly puts all emphasis on CORSI, as the one determinant of a good team (sustainable success, in your words).
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 1:28 PM ET
You haven't "used" PDO (sh% and sv%). You've dismissed them. i.e. good sh% or sv%, doesn't matter. It's unsustainable, because CORSI is bad!

That blatantly puts all emphasis on CORSI, as the one determinant of a good team (sustainable success, in your words).

- prock


you just read and interpret your own way..then trumpet against it without understanding.

thats you in a nutshell.

from this statement that is clear
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:34 PM ET
you just read and interpret your own way..then trumpet against it without understanding.

thats you in a nutshell.

from this statement that is clear

- senstroll



Really? You’re trying to tell me that the post didn’t suggest that the results so far are not good (unsustainable) because CORSI is bad? and the only reason the results ended up that way is good PDO? i.e. the team has been bad, and rescued by PDO? And ultimately, that’s not a good thing because it was just PDO?

You don’t think that suggests that really CORSI is the utmost important thing in determining how good a team is, and hence, what they’re long term success will be?

From that post, it's pretty clear.

Actually, why don’t you break it down, and tell me how I’m supposed to interpret that.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 1:50 PM ET
Really? You’re trying to tell me that the post didn’t suggest that the results so far are not good (unsustainable) because CORSI is bad? and the only reason the results ended up that way is good PDO? i.e. the team has been bad, and rescued by PDO? And ultimately, that’s not a good thing because it was just PDO?

You don’t think that suggests that really CORSI is the utmost important thing in determining how good a team is, and hence, what they’re long term success will be?

From that post, it's pretty clear.

Actually, why don’t you break it down, and tell me how I’m supposed to interpret that.

- prock


no you are interpreting it your own way as usual to form your opinion and make your point.


prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:52 PM ET
no you are interpreting it your own way as usual to form your opinion and make your point.
- senstroll



Go ahead and explain then.

Were you trying to tell us that we should be looking at PDO when trying to build a team?
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 2:18 PM ET
Go ahead and explain then.

Were you trying to tell us that we should be looking at PDO when trying to build a team?

- prock


who was talking about building a team?

we have to move on
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 2:51 PM ET
who was talking about building a team?

we have to move on

- senstroll



evaluating a team. Determining how strong a team is. Explain. You posted a win/loss record, some CORSI stats, and PDO, then claimed that the record/pts was "coming from bad possession and highly unsustainable sh%/sv%"

How am I not to interpret that you think that the CORSI is what we should be looking at to determine whether or not a team will be successful?

Let me ask you this... Since you feel that wins/losses come from some combination of possession and PDO, as you mentioned in your post, what does this tell you about these 4 teams:

Team A - good possession, bad PDO
Team B - good possession, good PDO
Team C - bad possession, bad PDO
Team D - bad possession, good PDO
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 21 @ 3:07 PM ET
This is great discussion, and I'm still wondering which sites you go to the see the "advanced" stats breakdown?

Also, would any of you be so bold as to use these stats to perhaps place a wager on a particular game?
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 21 @ 3:08 PM ET
evaluating a team. Determining how strong a team is. Explain. You posted a win/loss record, some CORSI stats, and PDO, then claimed that the record/pts was "coming from bad possession and highly unsustainable sh%/sv%"

How am I not to interpret that you think that the CORSI is what we should be looking at to determine whether or not a team will be successful?

Let me ask you this... Since you feel that wins/losses come from some combination of possession and PDO, as you mentioned in your post, what does this tell you about these 4 teams:

Team A - good possession, bad PDO
Team B - good possession, good PDO
Team C - bad possession, bad PDO
Team D - bad possession, good PDO

- prock

I take team B
Nucker101
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All right everyone, listen up
Joined: 09.26.2010

Oct 21 @ 3:10 PM ET
I take team B
- Feeling Glucky?


BOLD
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 21 @ 3:10 PM ET
This is great discussion, and I'm still wondering which sites you go to the see the "advanced" stats breakdown?

Also, would any of you be so bold as to use these stats to perhaps place a wager on a particular game?

- Doppleganger

A lot of the sites recently shut down, as guys got hired up.

And no, I wouldn't rely on the stats on a game-to-game basis. Individual games are far to unpredictable... not to mention the season is far to early for the stats to be accurate yet.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 21 @ 3:10 PM ET
BOLD
- Nucker101

prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 3:14 PM ET
I take team B
- Feeling Glucky?



I didn't ask which one you'd take. I asked what it tells you.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 21 @ 3:14 PM ET
A lot of the sites recently shut down, as guys got hired up.

And no, I wouldn't rely on the stats on a game-to-game basis. Individual games are far to unpredictable... not to mention the season is far to early for the stats to be accurate yet.

- Feeling Glucky?



How long into the season would someone wait to try and make predictions for the rest of the season, as to how a team's season is going to unfold, based on these stats?
Morris
Referee
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Oct 21 @ 3:16 PM ET
This is great discussion, and I'm still wondering which sites you go to the see the "advanced" stats breakdown?

Also, would any of you be so bold as to use these stats to perhaps place a wager on a particular game?

- Doppleganger

Sure. Why not? Boston is widely considered a good team in terms of corsi, who are 3-4.
Calgary is widely considered a bad team in terms of corsi, who are 4-3.

I'll give you very good odds if you want to wager Calgary will beat Boston on February 16th and March 5th.

These sites are the ones most used btw:
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/
http://waronice.com/
Morris
Referee
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Oct 21 @ 3:17 PM ET
I didn't ask which one you'd take. I asked what it tells you.
- prock

How big a sample size?
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 3:22 PM ET
evaluating a team. Determining how strong a team is. Explain. You posted a win/loss record, some CORSI stats, and PDO, then claimed that the record/pts was "coming from bad possession and highly unsustainable sh%/sv%"

How am I not to interpret that you think that the CORSI is what we should be looking at to determine whether or not a team will be successful?

Let me ask you this... Since you feel that wins/losses come from some combination of possession and PDO, as you mentioned in your post, what does this tell you about these 4 teams:

Team A - good possession, bad PDO
Team B - good possession, good PDO
Team C - bad possession, bad PDO
Team D - bad possession, good PDO

- prock


not enough info to say



prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 3:23 PM ET
not enough info to say
- senstroll


Okay. But that seems like a pretty big departure from before, when you pretty quickly determined it meant it was unsustainable. It seemed to be enough for you at that point.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 3:25 PM ET
This is great discussion, and I'm still wondering which sites you go to the see the "advanced" stats breakdown?

Also, would any of you be so bold as to use these stats to perhaps place a wager on a particular game?

- Doppleganger



not much use for a 1 game bet.

I did dominate and win my playoff pool by just taking the best corsi teams for each series.

senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 3:29 PM ET
Okay. But that seems like a pretty big departure from before, when you pretty quickly determined it meant it was unsustainable. It seemed to be enough for you at that point.
- prock



This is what I said

points to the wins coming from bad possession and highly unsustainable sh%/sv%

nothing conclusive... or "determined"

2 posts later I said this

that said..its really early..hard to draw any conclusions


Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 21 @ 3:38 PM ET
I didn't ask which one you'd take. I asked what it tells you.
- prock

Like Senstroll said, not much info there, but based on that limited amount, I'll say this:

Team A likely either has a bad goalie, or lower-end offensive talent. They play a good system, but probably won't make it too far in the playoffs. Now, if their PDO is lower than their PDO in previous seasons, and there hasn't been much of a roster change, I'd say they're probably going to get better as the season goes on.

Team B - these guys are probably cup contenders. Good systems, good goalie/offensive talent. But again, you gotta get a frame of reference. Is their PDO much higher than the previous season's? Maybe they're just lucky right now.

Team C - Likely a lottery team, but see above.

Team D - Could be contending for the playoffs, but chances are they won't make it far, unless things go well for them... Like we saw with the Leafs, if their goalie gets hurt or the scoring dries up, things can get out of hand quickly.



Side note: I don't buy into PDO being "luck"... you've gotta look at it on a team by team basis. A lot of stats guys set the bar at 1000... if you're above 1000 you're like;y going to regress, if you're below it, you're likely going to improve over time. IMO, if a team consistently has a high PDO, you've gotta adjust that bar to their own average. If they go above their average, they're like;y going to regress back to it, if they're below it, they're likely going to go back up to it.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Drink full, and descend, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Oct 21 @ 10:50 PM ET
in the long run you want the better underlying stats instead of the wins now..sounds dumb but building wins through something sustainable is better.. we saw it last year leafs started the season 10-4 or something but were getting killed...over 80 games those things tend to even out ..we saw

that said..its really early..hard to draw any conclusions

- senstroll

In general you want to dominate possession, though great goaltending or opportunistic scoring winning you games when you have poor possession can actually be sustainable if the talent is there. Hasek era Sabres are a great example, they almost won a cup as a terrible possession team. Didn't hurt that Hasek was arguably the best goalie ever.
Doppleganger
Ottawa Senators
Location: Reality
Joined: 08.25.2006

Oct 21 @ 11:36 PM ET
leafs coming in hot, after a win tonight.

Was not able to access the game here in Eastern Ontario, had to settle for the Wings vs Habs in French.
daeth
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Drink full, and descend, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Oct 21 @ 11:47 PM ET
leafs coming in hot, after a win tonight.

Was not able to access the game here in Eastern Ontario, had to settle for the Wings vs Habs in French.

- Doppleganger

Pretty entertaining finish to that game (habs/wings)

Glad I don't have to deal with blackouts. NHL game center live + VPN means I can watch every game if I want and if I miss it live I can just watch the replay. The only downside is I watch way too much hockey because of it.
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