Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 
Forums :: NHL Talk :: WHO is in a better situation: LEAFS or SENS?
Author Message
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:09 PM ET
The LA Kings.
- Pecafan Fan



And even Dean Lombardi has said "There is a difference between data, and how you use it".

If you think he's gone out and just grabbed the best CORSI players in the league, you're dead mistaken.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:11 PM ET
Do you mean people who by traditional metrics weren't that good but by Corsi are great?

Because guys like Toews, Parise, Kopitar have good corsi numbers

- Morris



Pretty much. I guess more along the lines of good value guys, by CORSI measure. Good CORSI player for cheap, to assemble a team under the cap. Who knows, but I'm guessing they wouldn't be what the CORSI obsessed think they would be.
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Oct 21 @ 12:11 PM ET
And even Dean Lombardi has said "There is a difference between data, and how you use it".

If you think he's gone out and just grabbed the best CORSI players in the league, you're dead mistaken.

- prock


And?

That tells me Lombardi found a way to use those numbers and make it work... not that they're useless.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:16 PM ET
And?

That tells me Lombardi found a way to use those numbers and make it work... not that they're useless.

- Pecafan Fan



Did I say they're useless?

He's clearly using them. As are many teams now. My point has never been that they're useless. They have their use, and they tell you something about a player. I think that's what he's getting at. You can't just look at CORSI, and see that as the end result.

If it were as simple as breaking out your CORSI spreadsheet, the LA Kings would have done away with their scouts ages ago. But I'm sure they see the CORSI stats, and their scouts go and tell them WHY they have those stats. Or don't for that matter. Just like their scouts would tell them why they have a tonne of goals, assists, or other stats.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:18 PM ET
And?

That tells me Lombardi found a way to use those numbers and make it work... not that they're useless.

- Pecafan Fan



This, by the way, is another rub of mine. The CORSI crew here seem to be pretty stupid, and incapable of understanding middle ground.

"what? Dean Lombardi says he saw the spreadsheets and built a winning team from them. Anyone that disagrees is calling them useless."

How else can you interpret his statements, other than to mean they're not the be all end all, just another piece of information?
Pecafan Fan
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Pacioretty, c'est mou comme d'la marde - Gilbert Delorme
Joined: 01.20.2009

Oct 21 @ 12:22 PM ET
This, by the way, is another rub of mine. The CORSI crew here seem to be pretty stupid, and incapable of understanding middle ground.

"what? Dean Lombardi says he saw the spreadsheets and built a winning team from them. Anyone that disagrees is calling them useless."

How else can you interpret his statements, other than to mean they're not the be all end all, just another piece of information?

- prock


I'm not 100% sold on corsi/fenwick but I think they hold some value from a team perspective. But I'm not sold on a player evaluation based on those stats.
Morris
Referee
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:23 PM ET
Pretty much. I guess more along the lines of good value guys, by CORSI measure. Good CORSI player for cheap, to assemble a team under the cap. Who knows, but I'm guessing they wouldn't be what the CORSI obsessed think they would be.
- prock

hmmm. let me retreat to capgeek and try to build a roster
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 12:25 PM ET
This, by the way, is another rub of mine. The CORSI crew here seem to be pretty stupid, and incapable of understanding middle ground.

"what? Dean Lombardi says he saw the spreadsheets and built a winning team from them. Anyone that disagrees is calling them useless."

- prock



Loudly objecting is not saying they are useless.. sounds good

I see some backtracking by people who I had many debates back and forth with


Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 21 @ 12:37 PM ET
This, by the way, is another rub of mine. The CORSI crew here seem to be pretty stupid, and incapable of understanding middle ground.

"what? Dean Lombardi says he saw the spreadsheets and built a winning team from them. Anyone that disagrees is calling them useless."

How else can you interpret his statements, other than to mean they're not the be all end all, just another piece of information?

- prock

interesting
Morris
Referee
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:44 PM ET
Here's my attempt at a cap-compliant corsi lover's roster.

Tried to be fairly diverse and select from top 100 players in CF%, minimum 500 minutes played.

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Marian Hossa ($5.275m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Jaromir Jagr ($3.500m)
David Backes ($4.500m) / Travis Zajac ($5.750m) / Jussi Jokinen ($4.000m)
Benoit Pouliot ($4.000m) / Andrew Shaw ($2.000m) / Sean Bergenheim ($2.750m)
Blake Comeau ($0.700m) / Rob Klinkhammer ($0.625m) / Erik Condra ($1.250m)
Jordan Nolan ($0.700m) / Steve Bernier ($0.600m)
DEFENSEMEN
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($4.250m) / Drew Doughty ($7.000m)
Anton Stralman ($4.500m) / Andy Greene ($3.000m)
Tom Gilbert ($2.800m) / Matt Donovan ($0.827m)
Adam Pardy ($0.700m) /

------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15 crunched using simulation date of 2014-10-21)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; BONUSES: $2,000,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $3,772,476

Didn't leave a ton of money for goaltending, but it gives you an idea.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:48 PM ET
I'm not 100% sold on corsi/fenwick but I think they hold some value from a team perspective. But I'm not sold on a player evaluation based on those stats.
- Pecafan Fan



Which is pretty damn close to how I'd describe myself. "hold some value".

Yeah, I'd say they're definitely weaker from a player evaluation standpoint. Sort of like +/-. Scoring more goals than you give up from a team standpoint is a good thing. From a player standpoint, it can mean a lot of different things. Some of the best defensive players in the NHL have ended up with bad +/-'s some years, among the worst on their team. And obviously that is not because they forgot how to play defense for a year or two. Rod Brind'amour off the top of my head. I recall he had some very wild swings some years.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:50 PM ET
Loudly objecting is not saying they are useless.. sounds good

- senstroll


I have, and will continue to loudly object when I see people treat them as the stat of all stats. That doesn't mean I think they're useless.

Is it really that hard for you to differentiate between the two?


I see some backtracking by people who I had many debates back and forth with

- senstroll


I don't really care, to be honest.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 21 @ 12:51 PM ET
Pretty much. I guess more along the lines of good value guys, by CORSI measure. Good CORSI player for cheap, to assemble a team under the cap. Who knows, but I'm guessing they wouldn't be what the CORSI obsessed think they would be.
- prock

Well, physical players are important. But you wouldn't build a team based on their physical abilities, and nothing else. You can build a really physical team without spending much... but obviously they won't win poop without offensively and defensively skilled players.

Specifically building a team out of people that just put up good position stats but suck at everything else wouldn't prove that looking at possession is a bad thing.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:52 PM ET
Here's my attempt at a cap-compliant corsi lover's roster.

Tried to be fairly diverse and select from top 100 players in CF%, minimum 500 minutes played.

CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Marian Hossa ($5.275m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Jaromir Jagr ($3.500m)
David Backes ($4.500m) / Travis Zajac ($5.750m) / Jussi Jokinen ($4.000m)
Benoit Pouliot ($4.000m) / Andrew Shaw ($2.000m) / Sean Bergenheim ($2.750m)
Blake Comeau ($0.700m) / Rob Klinkhammer ($0.625m) / Erik Condra ($1.250m)
Jordan Nolan ($0.700m) / Steve Bernier ($0.600m)
DEFENSEMEN
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($4.250m) / Drew Doughty ($7.000m)
Anton Stralman ($4.500m) / Andy Greene ($3.000m)
Tom Gilbert ($2.800m) / Matt Donovan ($0.827m)
Adam Pardy ($0.700m) /

------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15 crunched using simulation date of 2014-10-21)
SALARY CAP: $69,000,000; BONUSES: $2,000,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $3,772,476

Didn't leave a ton of money for goaltending, but it gives you an idea.

- Morris


Decent, not great team, in my opinion. D is a little weak past the first pairing. The depth on forward is pretty sub-par too, IMO.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 12:53 PM ET

Specifically building a team out of people that just put up good position stats but suck at everything else wouldn't prove that looking at possession is a bad thing.

- Feeling Glucky?



I assume you mean possession, and I agree with that.

Again, this is where the issue lies. Many treat it as the number one way to evaluate a player these days. People have gotten carried away with it. WAY carried away.

I've never said looking at them is a bad thing. Looking at only them, certainly is.

I also think there is a bit of a backlash, because some (including myself) are sick of hearing it too much, and treated as the stat I describe above.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 21 @ 1:00 PM ET
I know that. I'm saying there are some instances where a player makes what one person could construe as a shot attempt and another may not.

Example 1: What one person would consider a missed shot and another would consider dumping it into the corner.

Example 2: What one person would consider a pass that hit a defender's skate another would consider a blocked shot.

The people who count missed and blocked shots at the rink are the same people who botch hits, giveaways and takeaways and vary wildly from each other. It's not like all the advanced statisticians are counting themselves. They're collecting data from these people.

- Morris

IMO, the best way to mitigate this problem is to look at away game stats only. Rather than one set of stat keepers, you're getting stats from 29 stat keepers.... who don't have a bias towards your team.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:05 PM ET
IMO, the best way to mitigate this problem is to look at away game stats only. Rather than one set of stat keepers, you're getting stats from 29 stat keepers.... who don't have a bias towards your team.
- Feeling Glucky?



True, but they're still skewed in that case. Just less so.

I think I even mentioned the away stats in this thread a couple of pages back.

Also, the NHL doesn't offer those at a player level, just a team level.
Morris
Referee
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:07 PM ET
IMO, the best way to mitigate this problem is to look at away game stats only. Rather than one set of stat keepers, you're getting stats from 29 stat keepers.... who don't have a bias towards your team.
- Feeling Glucky?

but where corsi is a combination of for/against, wouldn't it be worse on the road with teams biased towards your players?

besides, I guess I'm talking about standards more than biases. some statisticians just seem more likely to count everything even borderline as a hit/blocked shot
Morris
Referee
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:08 PM ET
Decent, not great team, in my opinion. D is a little weak past the first pairing. The depth on forward is pretty sub-par too, IMO.
- prock

It's a playoff team for sure. I don't think they'd cruise to the cup or anything
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 1:08 PM ET
I have, and will continue to loudly object when I see people treat them as the stat of all stats. That doesn't mean I think they're useless.

Is it really that hard for you to differentiate between the two?



I don't really care, to be honest.

- prock


Nobody is doing what you are saying..so you can retire that excuse
Non of these guy use 1 stat exclusively. You would know this if you followed them.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:08 PM ET
but where corsi is a combination of for/against, wouldn't it be worse on the road with teams biased towards your players?

besides, I guess I'm talking about standards more than biases. some statisticians just seem more likely to count everything even borderline as a hit/blocked shot

- Morris



ironically, what he says would account/compensate for standards moreso than bias.

I also wonder how the hometeam being the one to have the right to put their line out last would play into that.
prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:09 PM ET
Nobody is doing what you are saying..so you can retire that excuse
Non of these guy use 1 stat exclusively. You would know this if you followed them.

- senstroll


Sorry, that's BS. It's nearly always the first thing brought up by some, and further, the only thing brought up by some.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 21 @ 1:10 PM ET
but where corsi is a combination of for/against, wouldn't it be worse on the road with teams biased towards your players?

besides, I guess I'm talking about standards more than biases. some statisticians just seem more likely to count everything even borderline as a hit/blocked shot

- Morris

you're right, but some people will be more biased than others.

And the inconsistencies will average out.
senstroll
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Sens Suck, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Oct 21 @ 1:15 PM ET
Sorry, that's BS. It's nearly always the first thing brought up by some, and further, the only thing brought up by some.
- prock



can you point me to these people that only use 1 stat?

prock
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Bobby Ryan + 1st rounder for Clarkson, ON
Joined: 08.30.2007

Oct 21 @ 1:17 PM ET
can you point me to these people that only use 1 stat?
- senstroll



tell you what, when I see people treating it like it's the only thing that matters, I'll point it out.

I will say this.

This post:

Underlying stats are bad for Ottawa right now

Ottawa at 44% corsi and 103 PDO
Toronto at 47% corsi and 97% PDO

points to the wins coming from bad possession and highly unsustainable sh%/sv%

Ottawa is basically puling the leafs trick

- senstroll


certainly seems to suggest that CORSI is more important than anything else.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 180, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220, 221, 222, 223, 224, 225, 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, 237, 238, 239, 240, 241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 256, 257, 258, 259, 260, 261, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 269, 270, 271, 272, 273, 274, 275, 276, 277, 278, 279, 280, 281, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 290, 291, 292, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, 299, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306, 307, 308, 309, 310, 311, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 322, 323, 324, 325, 326, 327, 328, 329, 330, 331, 332, 333, 334, 335, 336, 337, 338, 339, 340, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348, 349, 350, 351, 352, 353, 354, 355, 356, 357, 358, 359, 360, 361, 362, 363, 364, 365, 366, 367, 368, 369, 370, 371, 372, 373, 374, 375, 376, 377, 378, 379, 380, 381, 382, 383, 384, 385, 386, 387, 388, 389, 390, 391, 392, 393, 394, 395, 396, 397, 398, 399, 400, 401, 402, 403, 404, 405, 406, 407, 408, 409, 410, 411, 412, 413, 414, 415, 416, 417, 418, 419, 420, 421, 422, 423, 424, 425, 426, 427, 428, 429, 430, 431, 432, 433, 434, 435, 436, 437, 438, 439, 440, 441, 442, 443, 444, 445, 446, 447, 448, 449, 450, 451, 452, 453, 454, 455, 456, 457, 458, 459, 460, 461, 462, 463, 464, 465, 466, 467, 468, 469, 470, 471, 472, 473, 474, 475, 476, 477, 478, 479, 480, 481, 482, 483, 484, 485, 486, 487, 488, 489, 490, 491, 492, 493, 494, 495, 496, 497, 498, 499, 500, 501, 502, 503, 504, 505, 506, 507, 508, 509, 510, 511, 512, 513, 514, 515, 516, 517, 518, 519, 520, 521, 522, 523, 524, 525, 526, 527, 528, 529, 530, 531, 532, 533, 534, 535, 536, 537, 538, 539, 540, 541, 542, 543, 544, 545, 546, 547, 548, 549, 550, 551, 552, 553, 554, 555, 556, 557, 558, 559, 560, 561, 562, 563, 564, 565, 566, 567, 568, 569, 570, 571, 572, 573, 574, 575, 576, 577, 578, 579, 580, 581, 582, 583, 584, 585, 586, 587, 588, 589, 590, 591, 592, 593, 594, 595, 596, 597, 598, 599, 600, 601, 602, 603, 604, 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 611, 612, 613, 614, 615, 616, 617, 618, 619, 620, 621, 622, 623, 624, 625, 626, 627, 628, 629, 630, 631, 632, 633, 634, 635, 636, 637, 638, 639, 640, 641, 642, 643, 644, 645, 646, 647, 648, 649, 650, 651, 652, 653, 654, 655, 656, 657, 658, 659, 660, 661, 662, 663, 664, 665, 666, 667, 668, 669, 670, 671, 672, 673, 674, 675, 676, 677, 678, 679, 680, 681, 682, 683, 684, 685, 686, 687, 688, 689, 690, 691, 692, 693, 694, 695, 696, 697, 698, 699, 700, 701, 702, 703, 704, 705, 706, 707, 708, 709, 710, 711, 712, 713, 714, 715, 716, 717, 718, 719, 720, 721, 722, 723, 724, 725, 726, 727, 728, 729, 730, 731, 732, 733, 734, 735, 736, 737, 738, 739, 740, 741, 742, 743, 744, 745, 746, 747, 748, 749, 750, 751, 752, 753, 754, 755, 756, 757, 758, 759, 760, 761, 762, 763, 764, 765, 766, 767, 768, 769, 770, 771, 772, 773, 774, 775, 776, 777, 778, 779, 780, 781, 782, 783, 784, 785, 786, 787, 788, 789, 790, 791, 792, 793, 794, 795, 796, 797, 798, 799, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 807, 808, 809, 810, 811, 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 819, 820, 821, 822, 823, 824, 825, 826, 827, 828, 829, 830, 831, 832, 833, 834, 835, 836, 837, 838, 839, 840, 841, 842, 843, 844, 845, 846, 847, 848, 849, 850, 851, 852, 853, 854, 855, 856, 857, 858, 859, 860, 861, 862, 863, 864, 865, 866, 867, 868, 869, 870, 871, 872, 873, 874, 875, 876, 877, 878, 879, 880, 881, 882, 883, 884, 885, 886, 887, 888, 889, 890, 891, 892, 893, 894, 895, 896, 897, 898, 899, 900, 901, 902, 903, 904, 905, 906, 907, 908, 909, 910, 911, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 919, 920, 921, 922, 923, 924, 925, 926, 927, 928, 929, 930, 931, 932, 933, 934, 935, 936, 937, 938, 939, 940, 941, 942, 943, 944, 945, 946, 947, 948, 949, 950, 951, 952, 953, 954, 955, 956, 957, 958, 959, 960, 961, 962, 963, 964, 965, 966, 967, 968, 969, 970, 971, 972, 973, 974, 975, 976, 977, 978, 979, 980, 981, 982, 983, 984, 985, 986, 987, 988, 989, 990, 991, 992, 993, 994, 995, 996, 997, 998, 999, 1000, 1001, 1002, 1003, 1004, 1005, 1006, 1007, 1008, 1009, 1010, 1011, 1012, 1013, 1014, 1015, 1016, 1017, 1018, 1019, 1020, 1021, 1022, 1023, 1024, 1025, 1026, 1027, 1028, 1029, 1030, 1031, 1032, 1033, 1034, 1035, 1036, 1037, 1038, 1039, 1040, 1041, 1042, 1043, 1044, 1045, 1046, 1047, 1048, 1049, 1050, 1051, 1052, 1053, 1054, 1055, 1056, 1057, 1058, 1059, 1060, 1061, 1062, 1063, 1064, 1065, 1066, 1067, 1068, 1069, 1070, 1071, 1072, 1073, 1074, 1075, 1076, 1077, 1078, 1079, 1080, 1081, 1082, 1083, 1084, 1085, 1086, 1087, 1088, 1089, 1090, 1091, 1092, 1093, 1094, 1095, 1096, 1097, 1098, 1099, 1100, 1101, 1102, 1103, 1104, 1105, 1106, 1107, 1108, 1109, 1110, 1111, 1112, 1113, 1114, 1115, 1116, 1117, 1118, 1119, 1120, 1121, 1122, 1123, 1124, 1125, 1126, 1127, 1128, 1129, 1130, 1131, 1132, 1133, 1134, 1135, 1136, 1137, 1138, 1139, 1140, 1141, 1142, 1143, 1144, 1145, 1146, 1147, 1148, 1149, 1150, 1151, 1152, 1153, 1154, 1155, 1156, 1157, 1158, 1159, 1160  Next