Sens Writer: Senators’ Trade Deadline Preview

Thanks for writing this. I am largely in agreement. I'm just not sure if Chychrun is a trade deadline trade or something that waits until after the season.

I am not sure who may be on the trade bucket list. The way this whole team has been playing, I have no idea whom Staios et al will have on the tradeable list. I'm not sure if they will approach this whole thing as a small tinkering and let's wait and see, or some slightly larger retooling affair, or if they may want to tear down a larger part of this team.

It is pretty clear that this team is not structured properly.

Good lead on the discussion blog.

Sometimes when things go wrong folks want to believe the best answer is change. Often, it is easy to think the more change the better. But, one of the first principles of organizational change is the recognition of dislocation costs. In other words, even the best changes can have a negative cost. Too much change results in organizational chaos.

Last year the Sens changed ownership, front office and coaching as well as making multiple on ice changes.

Folks don't want to hear cautious words. It is easy to believe just the right move will change everything for the better. But, the reality is that it seldom works.

Doing nothing sometime is the best option.

I think keeping Jacques Martin is a good option. Does this young team need another change and a new system coming from behind the bench?

Folks need to realize that another period of significant change probably kicks this team into rebuild 2.0 and starting over again. I would caution everyone to be prudent in calling for significant or wholesale changes.

I believe in the on ice talent of the team. The team talent is not the problem. What we need is stability in ownership, front office and coaching in order to optimize the on ice performance of the existing assets.

If changes are made they should be few and highly strategic (perhaps the acquisition of an elite goaltender).

Good lead on the discussion blog.

Sometimes when things go wrong folks want to believe the best answer is change. Often, it is easy to think the more change the better. But, one of the first principles of organizational change is the recognition of dislocation costs. In other words, even the best changes can have a negative cost. Too much change results in organizational chaos.

Last year the Sens changed ownership, front office and coaching as well as making multiple on ice changes.

Folks don't want to hear cautious words. It is easy to believe just the right move will change everything for the better. But, the reality is that it seldom works.

Doing nothing sometime is the best option.

I think keeping Jacques Martin is a good option. Does this young team need another change and a new system coming from behind the bench?

Folks need to realize that another period of significant change probably kicks this team into rebuild 2.0 and starting over again. I would caution everyone to be prudent in calling for significant or wholesale changes.

I believe in the on ice talent of the team. The team talent is not the problem. What we need is stability in ownership, front office and coaching in order to optimize the on ice performance of the existing assets.

If changes are made they should be few and highly strategic (perhaps the acquisition of an elite goaltender).
- spatso

Jacques said last week. He’s not coming back behind the bench. He will be in the front office and part of the processus in the hired of the new coach

Im in the wait-n-see camp.

Staying the course with minor changes mostly worked in Vancouver. Looked to be working in LA and was a disaster in NJ and Buffalo.

Goaltending. Seems to really be the difference. Not that that is a striking new take on things but just solid netminding makes a huge difference. I'd be trying to move Korpisalo and attaching something shiny to him. Seems unlikely given his deal but you never know.

Thanks for the blog.

After Tarasenko, Brannstrom is the next player that is most likely to be dealt. I believe that remaking the defence core is management top priority and that Brannstrom doesn't fit what Staios/Poulin value.

As for Kubalik, I think his play with Ottawa reflects what he truly is - a player who can put the puck in the net when setup but lacks purpose/conviction in all other aspects of the game. Any return would be a 5th rounder or lower.

Chycrun will not be traded at the deadline. Even if the organization has decided that he doesn't fit their plans, they will want a capable top 4 defender as a replacement.

Im in the wait-n-see camp.

Staying the course with minor changes mostly worked in Vancouver. Looked to be working in LA and was a disaster in NJ and Buffalo.

Goaltending. Seems to really be the difference. Not that that is a striking new take on things but just solid netminding makes a huge difference. I'd be trying to move Korpisalo and attaching something shiny to him. Seems unlikely given his deal but you never know.
- Octavarium

Patience is okay to a point, but I'm concerned that some people believe that goaltending is a silver bullet that will fix everything. This mindset fundamentally implies that every goal is effectively the goaltender's fault, which in the case of this team is nonsense. People who are freaking out over Korpisalo being under .900 might want to take a look at who else is in that range. Samsonov has a worse sv% that either Senators goaltender, but is 15-5-6. Vanecek has a very similar sv%, but is 17-9-3, Georgiev is under .900 with a 31-15-3 record, and even future hall-of-famer Vasilevsky is under .900 right now... yet those teams manage to win games, and compete hard every night. I'm not saying OTT should have a record like that, but is .500 really so much to be expecting?

Conversely, Martin's first comments about the team when he started as interim coach was that they played an unprofessional game (i.e. no defensive structure), and Alfredsson has commented before on their lack of intensity and attention to detail. No shortage of pundits have commented on the team's poor roster structure, they have the softest D in the league, the 2nd worst special teams in the league, their 4th line is borderline useless, and they've gotten highly inconsistent performances from their top-2C. Now many of these issues are related, and having the stability of a full-time coaching staff and a full off-season to prepare will definitely help. And I'm certainly not suggesting that an upgrade in goal wouldn't make a difference, but I would be highly surprised if the roster changes are limited to that.

Thanks for the blog as usual! Let us know if you would like help with contributions.

This team will need some different pieces next season. I think it’s incredibly naïve to assume this existing roster can turn it around and become playoff/Cup contender. Does that mean implode what you have? Of course not. But it does mean you should take the opportunity to move out players when you can.

I know Tarasenko has expressed interest to stay but at his price tag and style of play, it doesn’t seem like a smart fit. Getting some draft/prospect capital and then filling the hole in the lineup with a more rugged 2-way winger might be the smartest thing. I think Vegas and the Rangers are the likeliest of destinations, but I wonder if Vegas/Ottawa trades are done for the foreseeable future as every other trade with them has hurt Ottawa immensely.

Kubalik can be traded for a bag of pucks. I am not even sure a team would waste assets on him in all honesty but that will be a nice hole to fill next season.

I am still on the fence about Chychrun. There is some attractiveness to teams if they can get him for 2 playoff runs, so you might get a very good package. However, I am not sold that I want Chabot over him long term. Chabot’s no-trade kicks in during the summer, so if he were ever to get moved, now is the time. Chabot has been the better d-man of the two, but that really isn’t anything to be proud of. Is there a scenario where we move both Chychrun and Chabot if both don’t seem like a great fit? You could likely get a decent right-hand shot D, some forward depth, and draft/prospect capital for both in multiple deals.

I think it’s important to have some expectations that some out of the box move may happen between now and October 2024. The new regime has zero connection to any of the current members of the organization. Trade deadline will be just a very small first step.

as the base for deal:
laughton and florida 2024 1st for Chychrun

does either team do it?

as the base for deal:
laughton and florida 2024 1st for Chychrun

does either team do it?
- hello it's me 2050

I think it's a no.... not a bad idea with Laughton coming here but I think Norris has to go if this is happening. Pinto is too valuable of an asset to just trade away not too.

as the base for deal:
laughton and florida 2024 1st for Chychrun

does either team do it?
- hello it's me 2050

if a team is getting two playoff runs with Chychrun, you'd have to think a solid prospect is coming back with a first.

Even better if Ottawa retains some salary. Would be nice to see if the new owner would be willing to do this to , the opposite of what we;re all so used to

Thanks for the blog as usual! Let us know if you would like help with contributions.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Appreciate the note, and the kudos others have regularly offered. If anyone wants to contribute a posting, they're more than welcome to submit something. We had a bit of a group in place late last year, just people stopped offering or asking to write pieces quite some time back. But I'm happy to go back to a more collaborative approach if there's enough interest, or at least have the occasional guest posting.

Thanks for the blog as usual! Let us know if you would like help with contributions.

This team will need some different pieces next season. I think it’s incredibly naïve to assume this existing roster can turn it around and become playoff/Cup contender. Does that mean implode what you have? Of course not. But it does mean you should take the opportunity to move out players when you can.

I know Tarasenko has expressed interest to stay but at his price tag and style of play, it doesn’t seem like a smart fit. Getting some draft/prospect capital and then filling the hole in the lineup with a more rugged 2-way winger might be the smartest thing. I think Vegas and the Rangers are the likeliest of destinations, but I wonder if Vegas/Ottawa trades are done for the foreseeable future as every other trade with them has hurt Ottawa immensely.

Kubalik can be traded for a bag of pucks. I am not even sure a team would waste assets on him in all honesty but that will be a nice hole to fill next season.

I am still on the fence about Chychrun. There is some attractiveness to teams if they can get him for 2 playoff runs, so you might get a very good package. However, I am not sold that I want Chabot over him long term. Chabot’s no-trade kicks in during the summer, so if he were ever to get moved, now is the time. Chabot has been the better d-man of the two, but that really isn’t anything to be proud of. Is there a scenario where we move both Chychrun and Chabot if both don’t seem like a great fit? You could likely get a decent right-hand shot D, some forward depth, and draft/prospect capital for both in multiple deals.

I think it’s important to have some expectations that some out of the box move may happen between now and October 2024. The new regime has zero connection to any of the current members of the organization. Trade deadline will be just a very small first step.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

It's a very fair point about Chabot/Chychrun - the inclusion of Chychrun in my post was meant to reflect his potential as a trade-deadline move, not that it was necessarily the right direction to go in terms of which to keep (if either). Personally, I think it would be regressive to move both, but they absolutely need to toughen up their D around whoever is kept. That means getting a top-4 RHD who can actually play a more physical brand of hockey, as well as moving in someone like Kleven to replace Brannstrom. Their D is far far softer and easier to play against than I think most people realize, and gets masked under the guise of being a 'puck-moving' team.

It's a big reason as to why the PK is terrible and the goaltenders struggle with so many screened shots and deflected goals... the current D are virtually incapable of clearing the front of the net, or preventing forwards from getting position. To give some perspective on this, right now OTT has just 1 D-man with more than Hamonic's 52 hits on the season, which is Zub (97). There's just 1 other NHL team with just 1 D-man with >52 hits on the season (CBJ), and only 4 other teams have as few as 2. Conversely, there are 26 NHL teams with at least 3 D-men having >52hits, FLA/TOR each have 6, and the average among playoff teams is 4. You can bet that addressing this is very high on the list of changes Staios will have in mind.

Kubalik for Duclair straight up?

Same player.
Same age.
We at least "know" the Duke a bit better.

Do we have any word from Norris beyond what we are all thinking? Did he tweek it? Is it going to need yet another surgery? Is his career over? What?

Kubalik for Duclair straight up?

Same player.
Same age.
We at least "know" the Duke a bit better.

Do we have any word from Norris beyond what we are all thinking? Did he tweek it? Is it going to need yet another surgery? Is his career over? What?
- Octavarium

Other than to save $1million in cap space this year, I don't know why SJ would do that, when they could trade Duclair for 3rd this year.

I like Duke...he could be a good third line guy to sign in the offseason.

RE: Chychrun - unless you are getting the same (or younger prospect) for him that you spent to get him, best to keep him and trade him at the deadline next year, when he is worth more. Having said that...LA has a lot of RD and need a LD. Chyrchun for Brandt.

I think the only move the Sens make is Tarasenko for a 2nd to a contender like Dallas.

Who would want Kubalik for FREE? Not at a 2million cap hit.

It's a very fair point about Chabot/Chychrun - the inclusion of Chychrun in my post was meant to reflect his potential as a trade-deadline move, not that it was necessarily the right direction to go in terms of which to keep (if either). Personally, I think it would be regressive to move both, but they absolutely need to toughen up their D around whoever is kept. That means getting a top-4 RHD who can actually play a more physical brand of hockey, as well as moving in someone like Kleven to replace Brannstrom. Their D is far far softer and easier to play against than I think most people realize, and gets masked under the guise of being a 'puck-moving' team.

It's a big reason as to why the PK is terrible and the goaltenders struggle with so many screened shots and deflected goals... the current D are virtually incapable of clearing the front of the net, or preventing forwards from getting position. To give some perspective on this, right now OTT has just 1 D-man with more than Hamonic's 52 hits on the season, which is Zub (97). There's just 1 other NHL team with just 1 D-man with >52 hits on the season (CBJ), and only 4 other teams have as few as 2. Conversely, there are 26 NHL teams with at least 3 D-men having >52hits, FLA/TOR each have 6, and the average among playoff teams is 4. You can bet that addressing this is very high on the list of changes Staios will have in mind.
- khawk

Trading Chabot and Chychrun would mean you'd really have to have faith Sanderson is ready for top line minutes. He might be, but there would like continue to be growing pains. I'm not completely opposed depending on the return, but it also raises some real questions about the team's defense next season, which admittedly would be there anyway.

Sanderson ----
--- Zub
Kleven JBD

Hamonic

Trading Chabot and Chychrun would mean you'd really have to have faith Sanderson is ready for top line minutes. He might be, but there would like continue to be growing pains. I'm not completely opposed depending on the return, but it also raises some real questions about the team's defense next season, which admittedly would be there anyway.

Sanderson ----
--- Zub
Kleven JBD

Hamonic
- david22

Trade one, not both. Whichever one you think will get you the most return AND you think is the lessor of the two. But, again, that seems like an offseason thing.
And there is nothing wrong with being stacked at LD, other than it hurting Kleven's path to the NHL.

Trade one, not both. Whichever one you think will get you the most return AND you think is the lessor of the two. But, again, that seems like an offseason thing.
And there is nothing wrong with being stacked at LD, other than it hurting Kleven's path to the NHL.
- GrimmdaGoalie

If nothing is wrong with being stacked on left D, why has that not been a bright spot this season?

If nothing is wrong with being stacked on left D, why has that not been a bright spot this season?
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

the D in general has been underwhelming this year, IMO. But I wonder if that is due to having to use Hamonic and Brannstrom. If they had a better option at RD, would the D corps as a whole due better?

And the way you get a RD is using your logpile at LD.....

If Kleven is ready, they have at least 4 LD who can play next year on the roster. Yet the only have one RD signed past this year - Zuuuuuuubbb - who is worth a damn. Need to address that in the offseason...

Should have addressed it with John Marino a year ago, but hey...

If nothing is wrong with being stacked on left D, why has that not been a bright spot this season?
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

They're not stacked at LHD so much as they're one-dimensional. There's only so many top-4 minutes and PP time to go around, and ultimately they're wasting potential minutes for someone in the process. The fact that they're now playing Chychrun-Brannstrom as the 3rd pairing, and having to play Bernard-Docker like a top-4D beside Chabot at ES is pretty telling. It's effectively the same reason that Karlsson has struggled when having to share #1PP time with Burns/Letang... yet put up a 100pts and won a Norris Trophy in the 1 season where he didn't have that role encroachment. You really can have too much of a good thing, and it's evidence of mismanagement when you operate in a salary cap environment.

Very curious as to what this group does by Friday. I think they need to move some core players, change the culture and tempo. Losing comes too easy to this group, and consistency is a massive issue. They handily defeat some of the best teams in the league only to lose to the worst.

Chychrun has been abysmal defensively, and it's showing much more under Martin than it did with Smith. He appears to be a player who thrives with less structure, and this team needs structure. Sincerely hope we don't add any NHL players for value assets - this team desperately needs prospects with upside. Our internal options are awful - when you're one of the worst teams in the NHL AND most analysts agree you have one of the worst prospect pools, something has to give. Norris getting hurt sucks big time - we should have tried to trade him for a Brandon Carlo after his 35 goal season instead of signing him long term for ridiculous money mostly because he's Brady's bestie. Instead I suspect we will eventually see him bought out, much like Korpisalo.

IMO - sell everything that's not bolted to the floor, replace the departed with bad pending UFA salary grabs for futures using Norris LTIR, and wait til the off-season to add anything. Do not hamper Belleville's playoff push by calling players up - if anything, look to find pieces that can help the AHL roster. Defensive D are way overpriced to procure at deadline, but often readily available in UFA and the off-season.

I wonder if a goalie solution could be had by flipping bad contracts, change of scenery, moving Korpisalo somewhere for a similar, long tenured goalie that's fallen out of favor? Merzlikins and Campbell come to mind. John Gibson should also work, but people seem to operate under the delusion he still has value after 5 straight horrible seasons in a row.

I wonder if a goalie solution could be had by flipping bad contracts, change of scenery, moving Korpisalo somewhere for a similar, long tenured goalie that's fallen out of favor? Merzlikins and Campbell come to mind. John Gibson should also work, but people seem to operate under the delusion he still has value after 5 straight horrible seasons in a row.
- Bartacus

Merzlikins could be a reasonable option, has reportedly asked for a trade, and has a similarly large contract - but it could be a six of one/half-dozen of the other type of move. Then again, a fairly random goaltender flip is exactly how they acquired Craig Anderson, who became the best goaltender in franchise history. The really interesting add-on would be if they could figure out a way to also get RHD David Jiricek in the deal, who is reportedly not happy with how CBJ is developing him.

Conversely, Martin's first comments about the team when he started as interim coach was that they played an unprofessional game (i.e. no defensive structure), and Alfredsson has commented before on their lack of intensity and attention to detail. No shortage of pundits have commented on the team's poor roster structure, they have the softest D in the league, the 2nd worst special teams in the league, their 4th line is borderline useless, and they've gotten highly inconsistent performances from their top-2C. Now many of these issues are related, and having the stability of a full-time coaching staff and a full off-season to prepare will definitely help. And I'm certainly not suggesting that an upgrade in goal wouldn't make a difference, but I would be highly surprised if the roster changes are limited to that.
- khawk

Lots of very good points here.

ruff fire by NJD, possible new HC for OTT?