Sens Writer: Could the Senators make an improbable playoff push?

Great commentary. Enjoyed the read.

I am happy if the Sens get close. Teams can make really ugly decisions trying to load up to make a playoff run. I would rather have the Sens stay cool. I hope the decisions they make are targeted towards next year.

Don't need any additions for a run this year.

Also, no great interest in loading up on picks and prospects.

Yes to Tarasenko.

Yes to a long term deal for Pinto.

An elite goalie would be nice.

Question: Over the past few games I am thinking Timmy has been playing a much better defensive game. Is that just false hope on my part?

Based on the number of teams they would have to pass, it would have to be a dominant run to close the season. Didn't they do something similar in 2015?

Can the Sens make the playoffs


Short Answer - No
Long Answer - No

Sens Writer: Could the Senators make a playoff push?
- khawk

I absolutely hate this question. The Sens are playing themselves out of a top pick. Yes winning is good but do it the entire season - not when the pressure is of and points get you nothing for the year of suffering. 100% it will make this team worse in the long term. We need 1 more top 5 pick otherwise this team is headed to being a playoff team that is not a serious cup contender.

They should have fired DJ Smith long ago and waited way too long this season to make the playoffs. This is just going to be another winning to finish the season when it doesn't matter and get a worst draft pick end to the season for the Sens. The winning to end the season won't mean much for next season as usual but a better coach to start next season should.

They can have the flyers spot we need a pong ball

Great commentary. Enjoyed the read.

I am happy if the Sens get close. Teams can make really ugly decisions trying to load up to make a playoff run. I would rather have the Sens stay cool. I hope the decisions they make are targeted towards next year.

Don't need any additions for a run this year.

Also, no great interest in loading up on picks and prospects.

Yes to Tarasenko.

Yes to a long term deal for Pinto.

An elite goalie would be nice.

Question: Over the past few games I am thinking Timmy has been playing a much better defensive game. Is that just false hope on my part?
- spatso

It’s a lot more than just the defensive game for Stutzle, it’s everything from his offensive production, to his energy level, to his awareness on the ice. It’s also not too hard to see the evidence of the problems Stutzle has been having recently. Case in point, if you look at his individual stats over the past 25GP, it’s more than a bit revealing.

Stutzle
Last 5GP - 5GP-3G-3A-6Pts, +3, plus SO Winner
Prev 20GP - 20GP-4G-10A-14Pts, -9

Worse yet was his game-to-game consistency in the previous 20GP. He essentially had 4 big games in that stretch of 20GP vs. SJS, MTL, PHI, and NSH, but was absolutely terrible in the other 16GP.

Best 4GP - 4GP-4G-7A-11Pts, +9
Other 16GP - 16GP-0G-3A-3Pts, -18, held pointless in 13GP

That’s pretty serious regression for a player like Stutzle, who they absolutely can’t afford to have just show up for 1 of every 5 games for any considerable length of time during the season. Compare that with the production of a player like Claude Giroux over the exact same 25GP stretch.

Giroux
Last 5GP - 5GP-0G-4A-4Pts-+2
Prev 20GP - 20GP-9G-10A-19Pts, -4

Not only is the overall production there, but it doesn’t just come in a few big games where the team won the game. Giroux had at least 1 point in 18 of those 25GP, including 6 games that wound up being losses. That’s why having veterans like him and Tarasenko around are so important to mentor players like Stutzle, and help them develop into legitimate NHL professionals.

It’s a lot more than just the defensive game for Stutzle, it’s everything from his offensive production, to his energy level, to his awareness on the ice. It’s also not too hard to see the evidence of the problems Stutzle has been having recently. Case in point, if you look at his individual stats over the past 25GP, it’s more than a bit revealing.

Stutzle
Last 5GP - 5GP-3G-3A-6Pts, +3, plus SO Winner
Prev 20GP - 20GP-4G-10A-14Pts, -9

Worse yet was his game-to-game consistency in the previous 20GP. He essentially had 4 big games in that stretch of 20GP vs. SJS, MTL, PHI, and NSH, but was absolutely terrible in the other 16GP.

Best 4GP - 4GP-4G-7A-11Pts, +9
Other 16GP - 16GP-0G-3A-3Pts, -18, held pointless in 13GP

That’s pretty serious regression for a player like Stutzle, who they absolutely can’t afford to have just show up for 1 of every 5 games for any considerable length of time during the season. Compare that with the production of a player like Claude Giroux over the exact same 25GP stretch.

Giroux
Last 5GP - 5GP-0G-4A-4Pts-+2
Prev 20GP - 20GP-9G-10A-19Pts, -4

Not only is the overall production there, but it doesn’t just come in a few big games where the team won the game. Giroux had at least 1 point in 18 of those 25GP, including 6 games that wound up being losses. That’s why having veterans like him and Tarasenko around are so important to mentor players like Stutzle, and help them develop into legitimate NHL professionals.
- khawk

It is noticeable how the play of both Stutzle and Chabot has been so much more effective recently. It sounds counter intuitive but when the team as a whole plays a more disciplined game it actually allows for bursts of individual creativity knowing that the other four guys are covering the creative burst.

When everyone is playing a creative individual game...it becomes pond hockey.

This season is a joke and gone, thanks PD and cockhead Smith. Now I wonder about next season ... so we get a new coach and what, need 20 games to adjust to their coaching style? Would have been nice (if JM isn't coming back) to try and have a coach for the end of this season.

This season is a joke and gone, thanks PD and cockhead Smith. Now I wonder about next season ... so we get a new coach and what, need 20 games to adjust to their coaching style? Would have been nice (if JM isn't coming back) to try and have a coach for the end of this season.
- Brandon

I think you are right about Jacques Matin coming back.

I feel Jacques and Alfie could probably be had on the cheap. They care more about the team than huge deals and dollars.

excellent write up by the way.
Thank you very much for continuing to do this.

You presented it all pretty impartially. We all know it'll take a massive miracle of other teams dropping off and the Sens playing near flawless hockey for them to squeak into the play offs.

But. For the sake of argument they miss the play offs by only a point or three and end up with say the 15th or 16th pick. In what is supposed to be a weak draft. And we have been penalized a pick. We can't appeal it but we can delay ...up to five years? So it makes no sense to "pay the penalty now" ? Wait until the NHL says we don't have to pay?

Look...I get how if the team isn't going to make the playoffs, everyone wants the highest draft pick as possible. But you can't tell players not to play well - they are trying to score to improve their stats, improve their standing on the team, get a contract for next, etc.

So if they play well, and we lose some draft positioning, so be it.

They won't make the playoffs...even with their recent success it has only gained them 3 points on the last playoff spot. And a .700 winning percentage is nearly impossible to keep up for an extended period.

What this recent success has shown is:
1) the players are coachable. Which is great, because now we know this core IS coachable and can win. And because it means the team doesn't need to blow it up. Again. so....YAY.
2)coaching matters. Which means under the right coach, this team can do well. So...YAY
3) the coaching change should have been done earlier. So....Booo. But nothing to be done with ownership taking over SO late.
4) starting strong for the season is important. So...MEH. That's the ONE thing we don't know about this core because they have started every season under DJ Smith so poorly and its killed every year. The jury is out on whether or not this group starts seasons (and games) slowly due to their makeup or because of coaching.

We will find out next year, I guess.

If we can win out on our games in hand, all of them, we have as good a shot as any. Being above .500 by game 60 is the benchmark to aim for. If we are 29-27-4 by that stage we'll be well in the mix and on the verge of leapfrogging the Isles, Pens, Caps and Devils to be in or around 9th-10th in the Conference.

We'd need a winning % of over 75% for the remaining games to have a solid go at it, but why not if we can get some league-average level goaltending over that span. Just getting our team save % over .905 over that span would be enough given the talent on this roster. So yeah, in the remaining games (27) we would need to go 19-5-3, not likely but not impossible. And I would not wanna play a team that hot heading into the playoffs.



.

I will excitedly watch a late season push with managed expectations. The Vegas and Dallas games were great to watch. Actually found myself cheering unforced again during the overtime against the Knights.

Granted, Dallas was complacent and can afford some stinkers and Vegas has a depleted lineup. However, you have to take the positives when you can.

If the late season play continues to be strong, I wonder if Martin and co will stick around for another year. While I think a roster move or two still needs to occur, seems like the crew is starting to get the message of the current coaches and would seem silly to throw that out the window and have more growing pains with another coach. They can’t get the coach hire wrong.

End of the day, I am still bitter that the GM/coaching moves were done as late as they were. Everyone knew the moves were coming once the team was open for bids. Bearing a miracle run, this season really is an utter waste.

I will excitedly watch a late season push with managed expectations. The Vegas and Dallas games were great to watch. Actually found myself cheering unforced again during the overtime against the Knights.

Granted, Dallas was complacent and can afford some stinkers and Vegas has a depleted lineup. However, you have to take the positives when you can.

If the late season play continues to be strong, I wonder if Martin and co will stick around for another year. While I think a roster move or two still needs to occur, seems like the crew is starting to get the message of the current coaches and would seem silly to throw that out the window and have more growing pains with another coach. They can’t get the coach hire wrong.

End of the day, I am still bitter that the GM/coaching moves were done as late as they were. Everyone knew the moves were coming once the team was open for bids. Bearing a miracle run, this season really is an utter waste.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

This team has loads of skill and they compete hard. But they do not know how to win. They struggles in protecting leads. They would score and give up a goal right after the next face off.

Two years ago NJ struggled, a year ago they made the post season and knocked off the Rangers in the first round. Vancouver was bad last year, this year they have been great. It is one thing to draft great talent, winning is another and different kind of challenge.

Timmy is playing good D. Tells me this team is ready to go to another level.

The only way they're making the playoffs if there's another hamburglar run and some other team (Flyers/Lightning/Detroit) poop the bed. Coming in Hot podcast said that in January, Sens were worst team in the league, they are now top 5 in win percentage in the last 18 games. They've only gained 2 points on the wild card spot in that time.

That being said... it's fun to see the D not completely suck lately. Amazing how the goalies don't look so bad once they have confidence, and the D have confidence in the Goalies they'll make saves. Chabot has looked great since the D has been playing better. Was he trying to do everything? It's weird. He's the compass of the team it seems.

It is noticeable how the play of both Stutzle and Chabot has been so much more effective recently. It sounds counter intuitive but when the team as a whole plays a more disciplined game it actually allows for bursts of individual creativity knowing that the other four guys are covering the creative burst.

When everyone is playing a creative individual game...it becomes pond hockey.
- spatso

I wouldn't say that it's counter-intuitive at all... it's actually the single biggest difference between minor-league and professional sports. There are things you can do when you're the fastest and most skilled player in the game when you're coming up through the development leagues, but in any elite professional league that's not going to be the case. Your first job on a shift is to not make any critical errors, and that's exactly what you can see Martin working on with Stutzle now. Don't worry if you don't make something happen every time you touch the puck, but for God's sake don't turn the puck over at the blue line to create an odd-man counter-attack.

There are many similarities to the NFL, which is why so many high-profile QB coming out of the NCAA fail so miserably in the NFL once they're up against players at every position that are just as gifted as they are at their position. If you look at a guy like Tom Brady, he really wasn't the biggest, fastest, or smartest QB... but he had a very good sense of timing, patience, and how to take calculated risks. He seldom made serious mistakes in big games, and instead let the opportunities come to him and take advantage when they did. Players really can try to do to much, and force the issue at the wrong time - which in professional sports is a recipe for disaster. A young player like Stutzle just has to learn how to pick his spots, and not be a defensive liability when seeking out those prime scoring opportunities.

The only way they're making the playoffs if there's another hamburglar run and some other team (Flyers/Lightning/Detroit) poop the bed. Coming in Hot podcast said that in January, Sens were worst team in the league, they are now top 5 in win percentage in the last 18 games. They've only gained 2 points on the wild card spot in that time.

That being said... it's fun to see the D not completely suck lately. Amazing how the goalies don't look so bad once they have confidence, and the D have confidence in the Goalies they'll make saves. Chabot has looked great since the D has been playing better. Was he trying to do everything? It's weird. He's the compass of the team it seems.
- PogBoi

During this 10-3-3 streak, it's become increasingly clear how much better the Senators play in their own zone when Chabot and Chychrun are lined up on separate pairings, and each playing the LHD side. All of the other top-4D that regularly play on their natural side (i.e. Sanderson, Zub, Chabot) have a +/- rating between +5 and +10... Chychrun is a -14. That experiment just isn't working, and is why the team's single biggest need continues to be a defensively responsible top-4-quality D-man.

EDIT: Further evidence is that even with Zub out DTD with an injury, they're expected to have all of Bernard-Docker, Hamonic, and Brannstrom playing at RHD while Chychrun lines up as the LHD on the 3rd pairing...
https://www.dailyfaceoff....enators/line-combinations

That "backcheck" on the 1st GA by Chychrun is absolutely unacceptable. Did he even take a single stride after crossing his blueline? Then #6 decides to follow it up with a 2 minute gift to the Capitals and another GA.

...okay, not this game, lol.


They need to switch goalies every 3-4 games regardless of how they're doing. These guys are backup goalies, can't stay consistent longer than that. But yes, D is poo this game.

holy crap why isnt he (frank)ing pulling forsberg...Martin being as dumb as smith right now..

holy crap why isnt he (frank)ing pulling forsberg...Martin being as dumb as smith right now..
- Mithos

Yeah, he better be riding the pine when the 2nd starts, those were 3 horrendous goals, they absolutely cannot go in like that.

I agree @HoweHatrick and have said it before, Chychrun is just not that good at playing hockey, he puts his own players in poor positions with his panick passes, hustle just isn't their with any sort of consistency. Poor decision making, doesnt ever look interested or invested, drives me crazy.

lol Hamonic. If that sequence isn’t enough to convince a man to retire. I don’t know what would be.

Could the Senators make a playoffs push?
No.