Sens Writer: Jake Sanderson signed to a 8yr-$64.4M extension

Great write up.
Great explanation.

The naysayers around the league don't watch the team like we do. And really...not many people watch this team at all to be honest. Our fan base outside of Ottawa isn't massive. I like the deal, I like all the deals because it's Dorion betting on this group. This is our core. Playoffs or bust...no matter what this is our group until the next rebuild when I'll be almost 60 instead of almost 50.

Go Sens Go.
To me the most important player is still Brady. They've somehow managed to find, a bigger stronger meaner Alfredsson and put a C on him. He moves them all. They all want to play for and with this guy. And when they reach the playoffs he will be an absolute force.

I have a question : how long is DJ Smith's leash? Let's say, after 20 games, the Sens are 8-12. Does he get canned? Or does Dorion wait at least 30? If they start the season with 5 losses, is it the end right there? I know a lot of people complain about DJ, so I was wondering what the concessus was.

I have a question : how long is DJ Smith's leash? Let's say, after 20 games, the Sens are 8-12. Does he get canned? Or does Dorion wait at least 30? If they start the season with 5 losses, is it the end right there? I know a lot of people complain about DJ, so I was wondering what the concessus was.
- YodaOldBoy

it's shorter than 20 games.
it's 10.
They'd better be 8-2 and trending up or he's gone quick.

If Sanderson fulfills his potential with an escalating salary cap, this will prove to be a great deal. If Sanderson doesn't progress but maintains the ability to defend at an elite level, then it will be a slight overpay.
In my view, this is a great deal that solidifies an excellent core. The team just needs to add the right pieces around the core to be able to contend deep in the playoffs.

I like the deal and what it signifies.

Be curious to see what kind of pressure, if any, this puts on Sanderson.

Players often go through the infamous sofmore slump, so people may criticize him and the move if there's any growing pains.

Of course, he could also continue to flourish and show what a good deal this is immediately

it's shorter than 20 games.
it's 10.
They'd better be 8-2 and trending up or he's gone quick.
- Octavarium

17 of first 25 are at home, and there should be very beatable teams in that stretch. They should go 17-8 overall. The sabre and wing games will be fun this year.

Nice signing, would have been nice to see 1 more year. But its a good price and term. Worst case is a slight overpayment if he doesn't deliver for at least 5 of those years

He was a solid defensively. His ES production was weak though. It's not a risk I would have taken, but it definitely has upside potential as well.

In Chabot's first year of his contract he drew a 9.8% hit against a cap of $81.5m.

When Sanderson contract kick in next year he will be an 8.4% hit on a likely cap of $96m. If he had drawn the same share as Chabot on the new cap he would have signed for $9.2m.

Based on those numbers, this is a very good deal for Sens.

This contract may work for the Sens as well as Josh Norris' did last year!

Even though he just got hired -

Keep an eye on Boudreau - if the Sens stumble out of the gate, this is the kind of team he thrives with -

As for Sanderson it’s a solid deal - I wonder how it impacts Drysdale -

Obviously it has the potential to be a bad deal like any longterm deal signed with little evidence to the contrary...but 99% this is going to be a steal by 2025 at the latest.

Obviously it has the potential to be a bad deal like any longterm deal signed with little evidence to the contrary...but 99% this is going to be a steal by 2025 at the latest.
- AdamFrench

Not enough is being written on how McDavid changed the way contracting is happening for elite young players. In the East, NJ Devils, Carolina and Buffalo plus Ottawa are all following the similar path. They now trying to lock elite young talent through prime years. My assumption is they are prepared to see a few 30 year olds walk away rather than resign them to a long term deal after the age of 30.

This is the exact opposite to the way it has been for years. Teams tried to repress salaries of younger players. And, for years, they rewarded older players for what they had previously accomplished with long term retirement contracts.

Shorter term contracts like the ones signed by Giroux, Tarasenko, Bertuzzi and Blake Wheeler as well as multiple others may become the rule rather than the exception. Older players will resign with their old teams or go to new teams (Karlsson) just wanting to win.

Not enough is being written on how McDavid changed the way contracting is happening for elite young players. In the East, NJ Devils, Carolina and Buffalo plus Ottawa are all following the similar path. They now trying to lock elite young talent through prime years. My assumption is they are prepared to see a few 30 year olds walk away rather than resign them to a long term deal after the age of 30.

This is the exact opposite to the way it has been for years. Teams tried to repress salaries of younger players. And, for years, they rewarded older players for what they had previously accomplished with long term retirement contracts.

Shorter term contracts like the ones signed by Giroux, Tarasenko, Bertuzzi and Blake Wheeler as well as multiple others may become the rule rather than the exception. Older players will resign with their old teams or go to new teams (Karlsson) just wanting to win.
- spatso

I also think that Edmonton, New Jersey and Ottawa are teams that need to do those longer deals and hope for the best. Just the nature of the game and market. But it's looking good so far.

I also think that Edmonton, New Jersey and Ottawa are teams that need to do those longer deals and hope for the best. Just the nature of the game and market. But it's looking good so far.
- AdamFrench

I think it is a basic math issue. Teams that fail to understand the shift in the contracting model are getting caught and will pay far more for their top line skaters.

So, for example, the Leafs this year will pay 65% of the cap on their top 6 skaters. Carolina will pay out 48% to ice their top six salaries. May not be a big issue in regular season. But, a team paying out 65% of cap on top 6 will have serious depth issues once the playoffs begin.

$8m per for someone with 77 NHL games under his belt?



good player...but gimme a break. Not even a full season.

The other major implication of this signing is that it's a clear statement that the Senators have $8Mx8yrs confidence in Sanderson as a future #1D. Which kind of begs the question of how they feel at this point about the $8Mx8yrs already invested in Chabot as the current #1D. This may create some very interesting tension in the next off-season, when the team will be in a similar position with Chychrun that the Leafs are in right now with Nylander, where you need either an extension signed or fair trade value.

Key Points of Interest
- Chabot will start earning $10M/yr and get a M-NTC on July 1, 2024
- Chychrun has an active M-NTC and will be in the final year at $4.6M AAV
- Brannstrom will be an RFA with a $2.0M qualifying offer
- Kleven is widely regarded as their top-D prospect, and will need a LHD spot

Much will obviously depend on how the coming season plays out for all of these D-men, however it will be very interesting to see how the top-4D are deployed this season. Most importantly, who will they be pairing Chychrun with at ES, and will there potentially be long-term implications to that decision?

Not enough is being written on how McDavid changed the way contracting is happening for elite young players. In the East, NJ Devils, Carolina and Buffalo plus Ottawa are all following the similar path. They now trying to lock elite young talent through prime years. My assumption is they are prepared to see a few 30 year olds walk away rather than resign them to a long term deal after the age of 30.

This is the exact opposite to the way it has been for years. Teams tried to repress salaries of younger players. And, for years, they rewarded older players for what they had previously accomplished with long term retirement contracts.

Shorter term contracts like the ones signed by Giroux, Tarasenko, Bertuzzi and Blake Wheeler as well as multiple others may become the rule rather than the exception. Older players will resign with their old teams or go to new teams (Karlsson) just wanting to win.
- spatso

He hasnt even played a full season of NHL games yet...way too early to be calling him "Elite".
Sanderson was great last year..... but $8m per for a Dman that only has 77 nhl games under his belt is nuts.

He hasnt even played a full season of NHL games yet...way too early to be calling him "Elite".
Sanderson was great last year..... but $8m per for a Dman that only has 77 nhl games under his belt is nuts.
- Fakepartofme

Last summer around this time we had to deal with folks jumping up and down and saying Timmy had proved nothing and the Sens had overpaid. Same kind of noise was heard when Brady got the Sens special $8m handshake.

Contract modelling has changed.

When everything is settled I expect we will see 6 players on the Sens making the big $8m: Stutzle, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Chabot, Norris and Chychrun. Their combined total of around $48m will be about 50% of cap. Lots of $000 left on the table to ensure significant depth in the line up.

Agree with the above.

The question for me is: what was the risk of waiting another year to make this deal? Would he really have gotten more, even if he played at an elite level?

Not enough is being written on how McDavid changed the way contracting is happening for elite young players. In the East, NJ Devils, Carolina and Buffalo plus Ottawa are all following the similar path. They now trying to lock elite young talent through prime years. My assumption is they are prepared to see a few 30 year olds walk away rather than resign them to a long term deal after the age of 30.

This is the exact opposite to the way it has been for years. Teams tried to repress salaries of younger players. And, for years, they rewarded older players for what they had previously accomplished with long term retirement contracts.

Shorter term contracts like the ones signed by Giroux, Tarasenko, Bertuzzi and Blake Wheeler as well as multiple others may become the rule rather than the exception. Older players will resign with their old teams or go to new teams (Karlsson) just wanting to win.
- spatso

How exactly did McDavid change the way contracting for young players works? Crosby and Ovechkin had their long term cap circumventing contracts early on in their careers. GMs were already wise to this strategy.

You're playing with speculation with this contract but it certainly worked for Stutzle, and Sanderson hasn't shown any sign of slowing down. The fact he's signed for a lower cap % than Chabot five years after the fact is a tidy piece of business by Dorion. While Chabot might be a bit of an overpay it's not an albatross - Dorion has fared pretty well on these big gambles. If Norris returns to form his job security might be tighter than we had originally imagine. This team looks really well primed in the coming years, I am pumped to see them hit the ice. Great writeup khawk.

The question for me is: what was the risk of waiting another year to make this deal? Would he really have gotten more, even if he played at an elite level?
- coffee junkie

The difference could be having to pay a extra couple million per year when you are close to the cap ceiling and still need to pay the younger guys moving up. Cap certainty on a contract is crucial in planning for the future. Now there is no guessing on their core player salaries. You can continue the process of building around the core.

Speculation: Boston is kicking the tires on Pinto
Ottawa can replace Pinto with Greig, so they can let him go

Geeke, Forbert and a 2nd for
Pinto, Brannstrom (retain $800K) Joseph
Boston sign’s Pinto for 1 x $1.2M and has $29,166 in cap space. Ott has $95,000 in cap space