Sens Writer: Senators Prospect Rankings Senators Prospect Rankings

Sens Writer: Senators Prospect Rankings
Senators Prospect Rankings
- khawk

Wow, the Senators only have 11 prospects?

The Leafs have 40 prospects!

Think Sogaard is the real deal? I was impressed by the small sample I saw.

Wow, the Senators only have 11 prospects?

The Leafs have 40 prospects!
- Atomic Wedgie

My Leafs list might only have included 5 worth talking about.

My Leafs list might only have included 5 worth talking about.
- khawk

I'm not saying you are right or wrong, but when the #27 Leafs prospect on Mike's list is Buddy the Puffin (the Newfoundland Growlers' mascot), it may be time to shorten the list.

Think Sogaard is the real deal? I was impressed by the small sample I saw.
- RhinoFan

From what I've seen he's certainly got the tools to play in the NHL. He really does have to work on being more compact and efficient with his movement, though. The lateral mobility is impressive, but it works against him sometimes by moving his 6'7 frame out position or creating gaps. That said, he's certainly got #1A/1B upside, which is the direction I think the team wants to go in terms of having an effective goaltender tandem. But there's also getting to be a few too many goaltenders in the AHL system, so they may have to start to prioritize some for development reasons. For my money, anyone not named Sogaard or Merilainen is expendable.

Think Sogaard is the real deal? I was impressed by the small sample I saw.
- RhinoFan

If every other 6'6+ goalie's trajectory, if he ever does become the real deal it will be at 28 or something.

Good write up. It will be interesting to see what the Sens do with Smejkal and Matinpalo. Although I suspect that maybe Matinpalo is mainly for defensive depth. Smejkal is a wildcard, and may get that "veteran" forward callup if needed. But I would think the Sens want to see both playing in the AHL first to assess their talent level.
What about Crookshank? I could see him in a 4rth line role (if he can beat out Kelly or MacEwen for starting. Otherwise, a call up for the 4rth line if needed. His main weakness .... a scratch under 6 ft so Sens may want more size on the 4rth line.

Sokolov, I think would be a stretch for 4rth line .... lack of speed, physicality ? Sure, he might be able to score but 4rth line may not be highlighting his talents.

I'm not so sure Greig starts in the NHL. Maybe as a call-up. His rugged style of play make him ideal for 3rd line but he needs to work on overall strength to keep injuries down. My 3rd line to start is Pinto, Kubalik and ???? .... fill in from a trade not done yet. But if the Sens don't trade, then they may be forced to insert Sokolov or Greig or Smejkal into that spot.

Training camp will be fun to see how roles flesh out.

Well, I don't consider Smejkal or Matinpalo as prospects, because not only are both in their mid-20's with substantial pro-league experience in Europe, but also have WC representation for their countries. They both provide quality depth, though, and in the right situation could see call-up time in the NHL. They're also both at relatively high-risk of being claimed off waivers, if they show a bit too much potential in training camp.

In terms of other key prospects, I agree about Crookshank - I've always felt he would be a very capable 4th line energy/agitator, in addition to having the puck skills to bury his chances. Sebrango is also a bit of a wild card, as he showed a lot of early promise and may just need to play in a different system. The one player I feel I really should have added to the list is Donovan, who took the kind of step in his D+1 year that's reminiscent of the team's previous late-round steals. Now listed at a full 6-2-190, if he continues to develop as he has been there could even be some darkhorse WJC consideration.

Very good write up.

Not overly "homer" in it's descriptions and analysis. We all want our draft picks to be the next greatest thing. They usually aren't.

I still blame the current coaching staff for the under development of many of these players. During a span of 3 years when.....there were little or no fans in the stands...we knew losses were inevitable and we (fans) were prepared to live with them. This coaching/gm group gave little to no opportunities to many of the people in your list, favoring useless veterans instead. You can't find a diamond in the rough, if you never take it out of the box and look at it.

Now we are left wondering about Lassi, JBD and others and wondering with more NHL time what could have been.

Some questions for me goin forward. Didn't Soggard have an issue playing back-to-back games? Why? Can that be fixed?
Wasn't Sokolov some kind of face off guru?

Very good write up.

Not overly "homer" in it's descriptions and analysis. We all want our draft picks to be the next greatest thing. They usually aren't.

I still blame the current coaching staff for the under development of many of these players. During a span of 3 years when.....there were little or no fans in the stands...we knew losses were inevitable and we (fans) were prepared to live with them. This coaching/gm group gave little to no opportunities to many of the people in your list, favoring useless veterans instead. You can't find a diamond in the rough, if you never take it out of the box and look at it.

Now we are left wondering about Lassi, JBD and others and wondering with more NHL time what could have been.

Some questions for me goin forward. Didn't Soggard have an issue playing back-to-back games? Why? Can that be fixed?
Wasn't Sokolov some kind of face off guru?
- Octavarium

Considering we have been lamenting the right side of our defence for a long time, seeing both Thomson and JBD languish in the minors was disappointing. I don't think we Sens fans will ever get to learn if Thomson can be an NHL regular, suspect he is as good as gone if he goes to waivers.

Projects are good. Lineup looks good, especially on D. Goaltending addressed, looks good.

Coaching?

Projects are good. Lineup looks good, especially on D. Goaltending addressed, looks good.

Coaching?
- GrimmdaGoalie

Coaching will be on thin ice, if he faulters he's likely gone. Question in, will the season be salvageable if this occurs.

Goaltending still a little shakey. Hard to say what happens there. Will Soogard start in Belleville?

Better team defence should do a lot to help the goaltending. That top four has potential be very good if it can stay healthy, big if of course. Perhaps Chychryn can have better conditioning since he'll be on a better team with less responsibility.

Sanderson should take a big step this year.

Interesting to see Kleven move up the rankings so fast. He looks good, and was seen as one of those Dorion reaches that worked out, while others didn't pan out. Be curious to see a detailed list of all of those reaches.

Not clear if Sanderson would still count as a reach, since many had him high on their list.

Locks on the blue line ....
Chabot, Chychrun, Sanderson, Zub and probably Hamonic.

Questions .... Brannstrom, JBD, Thomson, Mantinpalo

I believe the Sens could run with 8 d-men to start the season. The last 4 listed are not waiver exempt. So my belief is that the Sens will trade away at least 1 of them, maybe 2 of them.
- Brannstrom trade to get under the cap ...... potential.

The bottom pairing could well be a combo of JBD, Mantinpalo.

I could see Thomson and Brannstrom traded away to help solidify the 3rd line.

It would be a shame to trade Thomson without seeing his true potential. Brannstrom, while I think he can develop more just does not bring the style of play needed for a 3rd pairing. But he could play in the top 2 pairings if injuries occur.

Sobrengo I think needs a full year or 2 in the AHL to develop but I do agree that he could be interesting to the mix if he does develop.

Donovan, Hamara, are still years away from seeing their value IMO.

But I think Belleville will be a much more interesting team to watch this year and in the coming years. This new ownership group under Andlauer really does respect the development process of players owning OHL teams (Hamilton and Peterborough). Might have to go down and take in a game or 2.

Great write up. But, not such a great prospect list. But it is as it should be.

I believe the Sens roster has the elite talent that will allow them to go deep into the playoffs.

But the Cup is almost always won by a few elite players in their prime supported by a strong cast of veteran depth players (the difference between Vegas and Edmonton).

So, the Sens (or New Jersey, Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit) should not need to worry about elite prospects over the next five years. They want make sure they use their assets and add the veteran depth that lets them make that deep playoff run. (Giroux and Tarasenko were great signings).

Locks on the blue line ....
Chabot, Chychrun, Sanderson, Zub and probably Hamonic.

Questions .... Brannstrom, JBD, Thomson, Mantinpalo

I believe the Sens could run with 8 d-men to start the season. The last 4 listed are not waiver exempt. So my belief is that the Sens will trade away at least 1 of them, maybe 2 of them.
- Brannstrom trade to get under the cap ...... potential.

The bottom pairing could well be a combo of JBD, Mantinpalo.

I could see Thomson and Brannstrom traded away to help solidify the 3rd line.

It would be a shame to trade Thomson without seeing his true potential. Brannstrom, while I think he can develop more just does not bring the style of play needed for a 3rd pairing. But he could play in the top 2 pairings if injuries occur.

Sobrengo I think needs a full year or 2 in the AHL to develop but I do agree that he could be interesting to the mix if he does develop.

Donovan, Hamara, are still years away from seeing their value IMO.

But I think Belleville will be a much more interesting team to watch this year and in the coming years. This new ownership group under Andlauer really does respect the development process of players owning OHL teams (Hamilton and Peterborough). Might have to go down and take in a game or 2.
- OttawaB

The Sens may be up against the cap and unable to carry extra guys. Depends on the Pinto situation. They carried 7 or 8 for a lot of last year, due to all the injuries.

Interesting to see Kleven move up the rankings so fast. He looks good, and was seen as one of those Dorion reaches that worked out, while others didn't pan out. Be curious to see a detailed list of all of those reaches.

Not clear if Sanderson would still count as a reach, since many had him high on their list.
- david22

The notion of the "reach" is an interesting one... I'm not sure it's the correct term. My observation of Dorion is that it's usually not a matter of him swinging for the fences, so much as playing it safe in order to address a strategic objective. I'm not aware of anyone who thought Sanderson wouldn't be a good NHL player, or that they didn't desperately need another foundational D-man... it was more about concerns for what they'd left on the board in order to make the pick. And while Sanderson has exceeded all expectations, that doesn't mean it wasn't a relatively safe pick at the time.

Other examples of "safe" drafting for need would include:
- Bernard-Docker/Thomson were picked early to address the lack of RHD
- Sogaard/Merilainen were picked early to add high-potential G
- Kleven/Boucher were picked early to add a punishing physical element
- Pinto/Ostapchuk were picked early to add 6'3 size/depth to their 3rd line
- Nordberg/Roger were picked early to add 6'4/6'5 size/depth to their 5/6D

It really depends on whether you view making a pick based on team need earlier than expected as a reach vs. just playing it safe, but in the majority of cases above they took players roughly 1/2 round earlier than many had expected. And outside of their top-5 picks, this tactic accounts for the majority of their 1st/2nd round picks since 2018. So regardless of how you label it, there's a significant departure here from the more traditional belief that teams should always draft the best player available.

The notion of the "reach" is an interesting one... I'm not sure it's the correct term. My observation of Dorion is that it's usually not a matter of him swinging for the fences, so much as playing it safe in order to address a strategic objective. I'm not aware of anyone who thought Sanderson wouldn't be a good NHL player, or that they didn't desperately need another foundational D-man... it was more about concerns for what they'd left on the board in order to make the pick. And while Sanderson has exceeded all expectations, that doesn't mean it wasn't a relatively safe pick at the time.

Other examples of "safe" drafting for need would include:
- Bernard-Docker/Thomson were picked early to address the lack of RHD
- Sogaard/Merilainen were picked early to add high-potential G
- Kleven/Boucher were picked early to add a punishing physical element
- Pinto/Ostapchuk were picked early to add 6'3 size/depth to their 3rd line
- Nordberg/Roger were picked early to add 6'4/6'5 size/depth to their 5/6D

It really depends on whether you view making a pick based on team need earlier than expected as a reach vs. just playing it safe, but in the majority of cases above they took players roughly 1/2 round earlier than many had expected. And outside of their top-5 picks, this tactic accounts for the majority of their 1st/2nd round picks since 2018. So regardless of how you label it, there's a significant departure here from the more traditional belief that teams should always draft the best player available.
- khawk

A contending team needs to have its core assets secured in place over multiple seasons. The Sens appear committed to a long term core that includes: Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, Chabot, Chychrun and Sanderson. I feel good about each one. Maybe, I would like to see someone bigger and stronger than Norris. But overall I believe they will contend.

When all is said and done the 6 core players will represent about 50% of the cap for a 5 year run of being together. This allows for a generous 50% of cap to fill in the remaining pieces.

Khawk does really nice job of showing how the complementary pieces might fit. And we cannot discount the opportunity that comes from making a few solid UFA signings (Giroux, Tarasenko).

Keeping it close to home which package to take: Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander ($10m.) Reilly and Bertuzzi at 65% of cap or Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, Chabot, Chychrun ($8m) and Sanderson ($8m) costing 50% of cap?

You need to visualize it 3 years from now. See our top 6 dressing for game 7 of a Stanley Cup final. In overtime do we have the players/bench that can win it all for us?

Its super quiet on the Pinto front. Is that a good thing?

Its super quiet on the Pinto front. Is that a good thing?
- GrimmdaGoalie

Pinto will be signed only after OTT figures out who to trade during/after training camp and pre-season

It would not surprise me to hear the Pinto deal is done in principle and they are simply waiting to have the domino drop. Having that contract on the books makes a "fair" trade even more difficult to pull off

There is no "fair " trade for the Sens to dump a contract to sign Pinto. Everybody and their dog knows the Senators have to make room for Pinto. So whether they have him on the books yet or not, every team knows what needs to be done. Maybe they are waiting for the NHL to drop the Canadian Junior team findings and/or suspensions before they sign Pinto.
Maybe Ottawa gets something in lieu of the Formenton contract? I still doubt we would see a Batherson suspension at this point. But maybe in all of this, there may be some cap relief?

There is no "fair " trade for the Sens to dump a contract to sign Pinto. Everybody and their dog knows the Senators have to make room for Pinto. So whether they have him on the books yet or not, every team knows what needs to be done. Maybe they are waiting for the NHL to drop the Canadian Junior team findings and/or suspensions before they sign Pinto.
Maybe Ottawa gets something in lieu of the Formenton contract? I still doubt we would see a Batherson suspension at this point. But maybe in all of this, there may be some cap relief?
- OttawaB

Maybe its Thomson plus a dead cap contract plus a low rd to a cap floor team

The addition of MacEwan really makes me wonder about the viability of Kelly on the 4th line, especially if Kastelic is the 4C. You just can't have an NHL line with so limited an offensive skill set and expect to win more hockey games than you lose. Even MacEwan should probably be a 12/13 forward in favour of guys like Crookshank, Sokolov, Greig, or Smejkal who can at least bring some pace and offensive flair to your 4th line. But if they go with Kelly, Kastelic, and MacEwan I would seriously worry about that line every time they set foot on the ice.

It's really nothing against Kelly, as I can see why coaches would appreciate his work ethic... but that can only take you so far, and I think having MacEwan for 3yrs and Kastelic for 2yrs more than accounts for the grit requirements of a 4th line.