Sens Writer: Remaining Off-Season Priorities Senators off-season

Great blog, khawk.

I wish the NHL would really wrap things up with that WJC investigation. It's been how long now? Well over a year since it started? I understand the need for thorough ness but this is really dragging on.

Sens Players by cap hit - rounded

Stutzle (8.4) Tkachuk (8.2) Chabot (8) Norris (8) Giroux (6.5)
Tarasenko (5) Batherson (5) Chychrun (4.6) Zub (4.6) Korpisalo (4)
Joseph (3) Forsberg (2.75) Kubalik (2.5) Brannstrom (2)

Essentially money given to the top 10 players is excellent overall - but the middle contracts are the issue (more than 1.2M and less than 4M). These players are expendable - and it's almost in order after 3M starting with Joseph

Great blog, khawk.

I wish the NHL would really wrap things up with that WJC investigation. It's been how long now? Well over a year since it started? I understand the need for thorough ness but this is really dragging on.
- Panzer_IVA

good point

Another Friday passed, another week to wait and see. The NHL is entirely predictable with bad news.

The Sens dodged a huge bullet on the entire DeBrincat affair. I believe they can do 7 $8m deals. Stuetzle, Tkachuk, Chabot, Norris, Sanderson and Chychrun plus one more elite talent. We assume the ending of some deals like Giroux and others in the normal course of business. Also, we are going to see the Sens reclaim more than $5m in dead cap space (Bobby Ryan, Murray, Del Zotto).

The cap jumps to around $96m next year. If they carry 7 guys at $56m. it leaves a vey generous average of $2.5m per player for the remaining 16 roster spots.

Sens are in very good shape and should not hesitate in signing Pinto to fair contract. He is an important part of the long term success of the Sens.

OTT is not going to move anyone until Training camp/pre-season ends, if Kleven is ready, Branny is gone, if greig can compete, Kubalik or Joseph are gone.

OTT and Pinto most likely have several contracts already laid out ready to sign for w/e happens in training camp and pre-season

The Sens dodged a huge bullet on the entire DeBrincat affair. I believe they can do 7 $8m deals. Stuetzle, Tkachuk, Chabot, Norris, Sanderson and Chychrun plus one more elite talent. We assume the ending of some deals like Giroux and others in the normal course of business. Also, we are going to see the Sens reclaim more than $5m in dead cap space (Bobby Ryan, Murray, Del Zotto).

The cap jumps to around $96m next year. If they carry 7 guys at $56m. it leaves a vey generous average of $2.5m per player for the remaining 16 roster spots.

Sens are in very good shape and should not hesitate in signing Pinto to fair contract. He is an important part of the long term success of the Sens.
- spatso

I 100% agree with you on the first 2 paragraphs. Thomas Chabot and Josh Norris - both making 8m - have A LOT to prove this year. Chabot has to show he can get back to 2018-2019 where he scored 55 pts and finished 18th in Norris voting. I like Chabot a lot but I was honestly surprised visiting his stats this morning. I thought had a 60pt season under his belt but he doesn't. Only 13 D-men have a higher cap hit than him. He needs to be a + player, which is something he's never been in his career, especially with the team now having JC, Zub, and Sanderson. Norris is the other person that needs to live up to his contract. Injuries are tough but they can make a contract look horrible and the player needs to stay healthy and produce. I think it must've been tough for Norris to see the Sens play this season, knowing he could make a difference. Hopefully he watched A LOT of video and learns a lot about how he be effective in different situations. I agree 100% that getting Norris back for a full year is AT LEAST better than DeBrincat for the year - not adding Kubalik and Tarasenko to it. I am happy they didn't lock him up.

With respect to Pinto - I have mixed emotions. He's a solid piece and a great prospect coming into the NHL, but so too was Colin White. I think Pinto has some other parts to his game that White didn't but he has to improve his defensive game and play PK. I don't know many 3rd line centers that don't.

I still think the easiest way (if ownership is amenable) is to trade with Arizona to get Little's LTIR contract.
A simple trade ... maybe Thomson or a 2nd round pick to get the contract.

Arizona (especially with the signing of Dumba) is not even close to the cap floor anymore so may be willing to part with the LTIR contract.

Little ... has only 1 year left so this would not be a long term burden to the Sens. Makes more sense then trading away Joseph + a draft pick sweetener. We could always trade away Joseph and/or Brannstrom during training camp if we find suitable replacements.

I still think the easiest way (if ownership is amenable) is to trade with Arizona to get Little's LTIR contract.
A simple trade ... maybe Thomson or a 2nd round pick to get the contract.

Arizona (especially with the signing of Dumba) is not even close to the cap floor anymore so may be willing to part with the LTIR contract.

Little ... has only 1 year left so this would not be a long term burden to the Sens. Makes more sense then trading away Joseph + a draft pick sweetener. We could always trade away Joseph and/or Brannstrom during training camp if we find suitable replacements.
- OttawaB

How is this a benefit to the Sens? And how does it help them sign Pinto?

How is this a benefit to the Sens? And how does it help them sign Pinto?
- GrimmdaGoalie

Ottawa would be over the cap if they sign Pinto and Sokolov.

Assume Pinto at $2.9 million per year (3 years?)
Sokolov at $900,000


Add 3.8 million puts Ottawa at 3 million over the cap.

Bring in Little's LTIR of $5.291 million to cover (for 1 year) ..... Ottawa's cap space with LTIR candidates (Little) would be around $2 million more.

Don't need to trade anyboby if they don't want to ... can ride into the season with room for 13-14 forwards, 7 d-men, and 2 goalies, and still have $2 million in cap space to take care of injuries if needed.

Take a look at the Habs cap space on Capfriendly and how they can use Carey Price's salary on LTIR to take care of being over the cap.

I don't think Sens really need to do anything right now on the cap. They can go ahead and sign Pinto (3 yrs at 3m) would a nice contract. They will have no problems starting the season under the cap. There are always injuries.

I don't think Sens really need to do anything right now on the cap. They can go ahead and sign Pinto (3 yrs at 3m) would a nice contract. They will have no problems starting the season under the cap. There are always injuries.
- spatso

Somehow I doubt the plan is, ‘wait for injuries’, but it is Dorion, so maybe you’re right. If there are injuries, they’ll have to call up players to replace them as well.

You can’t just keep saying everything is fine when the math doesn’t add up. They’re going to have to make a move before the season starts.

Somehow I doubt the plan is, ‘wait for injuries’, but it is Dorion, so maybe you’re right. If there are injuries, they’ll have to call up players to replace them as well.

You can’t just keep saying everything is fine when the math doesn’t add up. They’re going to have to make a move before the season starts.
- CooCooKaChoo

I don't disagree.

In fact, I believe Dorion will make one more huge move before the season starts.

But, there is no cap crisis and he should take his time. Many teams have more difficult cap matters to resolve and the Sens should be patient in waiting for the right deal to come about.

I watched Johnny Gaudreau riding on Brady Tkachuck's shoulders at the Kevin Hayes wedding and I thought to myself Brady is going to put Timmy and an entire team on his back and carry them deep into the playoffs starting this year.

https://www.tiktok.com/@b...video/7264750217625341189

I don't disagree.

In fact, I believe Dorion will make one more huge move before the season starts.

But, there is no cap crisis and he should take his time. Many teams have more difficult cap matters to resolve and the Sens should be patient in waiting for the right deal to come about.

I watched Johnny Gaudreau riding on Brady Tkachuck's shoulders at the Kevin Hayes wedding and I thought to myself Brady is going to put Timmy and an entire team on his back and carry them deep into the playoffs starting this year.

https://www.tiktok.com/@b...video/7264750217625341189
- spatso

We dont need to do anything, just let the pre-season work things out and demote the worst performing of our projected bottom 6. The remaining cap space we have is for Sokolovs contract and one of Pinto or Joseph makes the cut. The last spot can be filled out with any IR savings we can have from Forsberg (e.g. Sogaard and one or two of Greig, Boucher, Jarventie)

But if we need any efficiency savings, its time to head to the teams with the space: ANA, CHI, CLB, NSH, or SJS. Toss them a 2nd or a couple of 3rd and 4ths to play ball.
To SJS: Mathieu Joseph (2.95), 2nd 2024, 4th 2024
To OTT: Fabbian Zetterlund (1.45)

To CHI: Joseph, Parker Kelly (0.8) 2nd 2024, 3rd 2025
To OTT: Ryan Donato (2.0)

To ANA: Joseph, 3rd 2025
To OTT: Max Jones (1.3)

To NSH: Mathieu Joseph, Kelly, Lassi Thompson, 2nd 2024 (becomes conditional first in 2025 if Jankowski and Glass both resign), 4th 2024
To OTT: Cody Glass (2.5), Mark Jankowski (0.7)


Any of those trades means we would have the space to let our LTIR cover us as needed, or demote Hamonic or JBD as needed for whoever is doing well in Belleville. If the NSH trade works out, what a lineup it will be:

Tarasenko-Stutzle-Tkachuk
Giroux-Norris-Batherson
Glass-Pinto-Kubalik
Greig-Kastellic-Jankowski
ex: Sokolov, McEwan

Chabot-Zub
Sanderson-Chychrun
Brannstrom-Hamonic
ex: JBD, Kleven

Korp
Forsberg/Sogaard

I was away for the long weekend, but was surprised to see no comments about the Karlsson trade. Personally, I find it remarkable how many bad contacts wound up being involved, but I guess that was necessary in order to ensure that no team wound up with more than a $3.2M cap swing. It's interesting that SJS took back as much salary as they did, but they're now in a good position to generate additional draft picks at the trade deadline - especially if they eat some of the 2nd-year AAV for Granlund/Rutta.

The elephant in the room is whether this risk will pay off for PIT. They're clearly taking one last swing for the fences, and when you've got the likes of Crosby/Malkin on your roster it's certainly justified. Karlsson reminded the league of what he's capable of last year, but it happened in the one season where he was allowed to play a pure #1D role on a team where wins/losses were functionally irrelevant (i.e. no consequence to being a -26). If he can co-exist more effectively with Letang, then it would give them a great puck-moving threat on the ice for 3/4 of each game. However, the combination of Crosby/Malkin being 36/37 and a top-4D led by a pair of D-men in their mid-30's could leave them vulnerable to physical play and potential injuries.

Personally, I think PIT will struggle to make the playoffs, but much will depend on the season-long health of this aging roster.

I was away for the long weekend, but was surprised to see no comments about the Karlsson trade. Personally, I find it remarkable how many bad contacts wound up being involved, but I guess that was necessary in order to ensure that no team wound up with more than a $3.2M cap swing. It's interesting that SJS took back as much salary as they did, but they're now in a good position to generate additional draft picks at the trade deadline - especially if they eat some of the 2nd-year AAV for Granlund/Rutta.

The elephant in the room is whether this risk will pay off for PIT. They're clearly taking one last swing for the fences, and when you've got the likes of Crosby/Malkin on your roster it's certainly justified. Karlsson reminded the league of what he's capable of last year, but it happened in the one season where he was allowed to play a pure #1D role on a team where wins/losses were functionally irrelevant (i.e. no consequence to being a -26). If he can co-exist more effectively with Letang, then it would give them a great puck-moving threat on the ice for 3/4 of each game. However, the combination of Crosby/Malkin being 36/37 and a top-4D led by a pair of D-men in their mid-30's could leave them vulnerable to physical play and potential injuries.

Personally, I think PIT will struggle to make the playoffs, but much will depend on the season-long health of this aging roster.
- khawk

It was pretty surprising to see how aged the team has become, only one of their top six players is under 30 (Guentzel) who is on LTIR to start the year) and they have one one regular starting player total who is under 25 (PO Joseph). When it all does fall to pieces, the roster there will be a shambles. Two thirds of their roster has NTC/NMC clauses as well.

The Dubas show continues, bring in a marquee talent starting the downside of their career to save face and make one last go, but their team is one to two injuries away from irrelevance especially if it is one of their top-4 contracts. They are praying for good health and stars aligning for it to work out over the next two years.

As they say on Its Always Sunny in Philadelphia, those god damn birds...

With the top 4 that the Pens have, who cares about the ages. Take one more swing at the fences ...... you have Crosby and Malkin for maybe a few more years. Just bang away and see what happens. Sure, that team will likely be a big mess in a few years, but they had a 3 Cup run. If Ottawa had 3 cups I'd be thrilled and to damn with the approaching nuclear winter.

At the very least, Pittsburgh could be a very fun team to watch.

I think the Sens are one more good/big trade away from being an elite team. As it is, we are a bubble playoff team .... any one of 6 teams could be in the playoffs depending on their luck/injuries. I don't think any team is lock if the right confluence of events occurs.

That is why I think Ottawa needs 1 more player to solidify the roster. That player could be Lindholm, Konecny, Laughton .... or someone else.

With the top 4 that the Pens have, who cares about the ages. Take one more swing at the fences ...... you have Crosby and Malkin for maybe a few more years. Just bang away and see what happens. Sure, that team will likely be a big mess in a few years, but they had a 3 Cup run. If Ottawa had 3 cups I'd be thrilled and to damn with the approaching nuclear winter.

At the very least, Pittsburgh could be a very fun team to watch.

I think the Sens are one more good/big trade away from being an elite team. As it is, we are a bubble playoff team .... any one of 6 teams could be in the playoffs depending on their luck/injuries. I don't think any team is lock if the right confluence of events occurs.

That is why I think Ottawa needs 1 more player to solidify the roster. That player could be Lindholm, Konecny, Laughton .... or someone else.
- OttawaB

How do the Sens match up with the Devils?

In a playoff match up, the Sens probably have a more physical game and would likely have the edge. In the regular season the Devils have more speed and will likely finish near or at the top of the standings.

If the Sens were to add anything at this point I am not sure if I would want more size and physical to assure a strong playoff presence. Or, more speed to make sure a playoff place is assured.

Rather then talking about the same stuff … is a trade coming, when will Pinto/Sokolov sign, new ownership taking control.
I thought it might be interesting to talk more about the players in the Senator’s pipeline and what everyone’s thoughts were on who could develop into an NHL prospect or player. They may never play for the Sens but they could become trade chips for pieces we need.
In order to break it down into manageable chunks I thought I would start with the Sens Reserve List as defined by Capfriendly.
I have omitted any thought to Abramov as I think he is done with the NHL. The elephant in the room is Formenton. As many here have stated, he will probably never play another game for Ottawa. Suspension or not ….. eventually he will get traded somewhere else.
Now on to our real prospects. I have eliminated most of the newer guys on the reserve list because I/we(?) simply don’t know how they will develop. But there are a couple to keep an eye on in my opinion.
Stephen Halliday looked really promising at rookie camp this year. At 6ft 3in, and 21 years old, this forward (centre?) looks quick, skillful, has the size Ottawa seems to like, and maybe only a year or so away from competing for a spot in Belleville or even Ottawa. But it is back to 1 more year in college. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him leave after the season and sign with the Sens. I think a definite 2nd line or 3rd line player here.
Filip Nordberg also looked interesting. A 6ft 4in left d-man always has a potential for the NHL. Maybe more as a 3rd pairing d-man. But definitely at least 3-4 years away. I would think the Sens try to sign him and bring him over after this season. A promising project.
After these 2, there really isn’t much to grab my attention yet (on the Reserve List). Most are too early to form opinions on where their game development is going.
However, I will separate out the 2 goalies on the list. Nobody really seems to know how goalies develop. I don’t. But I do like the stories on these 2.
Kevin Reidler turns 19 shortly so he is a long way away. But if the Sens can figure out how to develop this kid he could be a real gem. At 6 ft 6in and 200lbs you know he will cover a lot of net. I would say to keep an eye on this 4-5 year project.
Nikitin at 6ft 4in is also an interesting candidate. Plucked from Kazakhstan leagues. How did they discover this kid? Who did the trips to watch his games?
I think both goalies will bear watching in the coming years.

Anybody else you guys think should be discussed. I figured we could look at the players who signed with the Sens that play goal, or on defence next (then forwards last). Just to try to keep some structure to the conversation. I, by no means feel I know a ton about the prospects in the system, but I have seen many of them play in the AHL, or OHL/WHL/Q (will try to watch a Michigan U game this Fall when I go visit my son)….. I try to attend a few games each year. But I think the Sens prospect base is pretty solid. We may not have any grade A prospects (like a Brady/Sanderson/Stutzle ... tough to get unless you draft top 10 IMO), but I think we have a few capable guys that can break into the NHL over time. All we need is for 1 or 2 guys a year to develop into NHL’ers for the Sens to continue to ice a competitive team.

My final thought …. I noticed in the Edmonton reshuffle that Steve Staios still does not appear on their personnel list (he is … was? … special assistant to the GM Holland, in player development). It makes me wonder when or if we could see him emerge in a role in Ottawa once Andlauer takes over? Thoughts?

Rather then talking about the same stuff … is a trade coming, when will Pinto/Sokolov sign, new ownership taking control.
I thought it might be interesting to talk more about the players in the Senator’s pipeline and what everyone’s thoughts were on who could develop into an NHL prospect or player. They may never play for the Sens but they could become trade chips for pieces we need.
In order to break it down into manageable chunks I thought I would start with the Sens Reserve List as defined by Capfriendly.
I have omitted any thought to Abramov as I think he is done with the NHL. The elephant in the room is Formenton. As many here have stated, he will probably never play another game for Ottawa. Suspension or not ….. eventually he will get traded somewhere else.
Now on to our real prospects. I have eliminated most of the newer guys on the reserve list because I/we(?) simply don’t know how they will develop. But there are a couple to keep an eye on in my opinion.
Stephen Halliday looked really promising at rookie camp this year. At 6ft 3in, and 21 years old, this forward (centre?) looks quick, skillful, has the size Ottawa seems to like, and maybe only a year or so away from competing for a spot in Belleville or even Ottawa. But it is back to 1 more year in college. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him leave after the season and sign with the Sens. I think a definite 2nd line or 3rd line player here.
Filip Nordberg also looked interesting. A 6ft 4in left d-man always has a potential for the NHL. Maybe more as a 3rd pairing d-man. But definitely at least 3-4 years away. I would think the Sens try to sign him and bring him over after this season. A promising project.
After these 2, there really isn’t much to grab my attention yet (on the Reserve List). Most are too early to form opinions on where their game development is going.
However, I will separate out the 2 goalies on the list. Nobody really seems to know how goalies develop. I don’t. But I do like the stories on these 2.
Kevin Reidler turns 19 shortly so he is a long way away. But if the Sens can figure out how to develop this kid he could be a real gem. At 6 ft 6in and 200lbs you know he will cover a lot of net. I would say to keep an eye on this 4-5 year project.
Nikitin at 6ft 4in is also an interesting candidate. Plucked from Kazakhstan leagues. How did they discover this kid? Who did the trips to watch his games?
I think both goalies will bear watching in the coming years.

Anybody else you guys think should be discussed. I figured we could look at the players who signed with the Sens that play goal, or on defence next (then forwards last). Just to try to keep some structure to the conversation. I, by no means feel I know a ton about the prospects in the system, but I have seen many of them play in the AHL, or OHL/WHL/Q (will try to watch a Michigan U game this Fall when I go visit my son)….. I try to attend a few games each year. But I think the Sens prospect base is pretty solid. We may not have any grade A prospects (like a Brady/Sanderson/Stutzle ... tough to get unless you draft top 10 IMO), but I think we have a few capable guys that can break into the NHL over time. All we need is for 1 or 2 guys a year to develop into NHL’ers for the Sens to continue to ice a competitive team.

My final thought …. I noticed in the Edmonton reshuffle that Steve Staios still does not appear on their personnel list (he is … was? … special assistant to the GM Holland, in player development). It makes me wonder when or if we could see him emerge in a role in Ottawa once Andlauer takes over? Thoughts?
- OttawaB

A+ great read.

I think we are moving into an era where picks are going to be 3-4 years away and we will need to stop thinking about how quickly they will line up with the Sens.

Staios is an interesting possibility. His coming in as a President of Hockey Ops would allay my concerns of making sure the the new owner has his own man at the top of the player decision model.

Staios ran one of the best junior programs (Hamilton). He is certainly a great fit with Smith. Trulia, one of the new Sens owners is also a junior owner (Oshawa) where Smith was a really successful coach. Not so sure about the fit for Dorion.

I tend to think of the prospect pool at any given point as a top-12, with 6F-4D-2G... much beyond that, and you're typically dealing with such fringe secondary prospects that they're unlikely to have any significant impact.

6F - Greig, Ostapchuk, Boucher, Pettersson, Sokolov, Jarventie
4D - Kleven, Thomson, Nordberg, Bernard-Docker
2G - Sogaard, Merilainen

The players are in sequence in terms of which I believe are the most valuable to the organization, and bolded those with the highest chance of making an NHL impact this season. It essentially boils down to Greig/Sokolov, Kleven/Bernard-Docker, and Sogaard being the most likely to play in the NHL this year, while Greig, Kleven, Ostapchuk, and Boucher are players that I don't think you could pry from the organization with a crowbar.

Beyond that, there's quite a drop-off in terms of NHL-probable talent, but the Senators have generally done a pretty good job of identifying depth prospects in the later draft rounds. The mention of Nikitin as a late-round pick is a good example of this, where he had a dominant performance at the WU181A tournament, going 5-1 with 3 shutouts. It's not a tournament that gets a lot of press, but if you're looking for hidden gems you have to look under some rocks and roll the dice. The fact that he was also committed to coming over to the BCHL no doubt helped as well, as it should allow them to better manage his development.

Watched Australia and France in the middle of the night. Just a wonderful game where both sides deserved a win. I was cheering for France. I love French arrogance in sport. They are also very dirty players in every event they play. They also always have the best uniforms in sport.

Okay. I saw the report that the new ownership group will be taking over in late August to early Sept .... but definitely before training camp.

Then I heard it mentioned that Alfredsson and Staios would be coming to the team in some capacity. So what is this rumour about and where did it come from ?

Good blog.
Good read.

Ya. The news of the sale isn't new but it's a slow news cycle so Garrioch stopped slathering sun lotion long enough to tell us what we already knew.

A more interesting rumor is actually Staios being looked at to take over for the retiring David Branch.