Mike Augello: Leafs, Samsonov Wide Apart On Offers For Arbitration

go Leafs GO!!!!!1

I’ll toss it out as a repeat….

What if they think Rielly could be more skilled defensively if he stays focused on that hence the need to bring in Klingberg?

Just a flat out guess but I’m curious what you guys think as well

As for Samsonov…. What about that mid point?

$3.65 million seems about right for him tbh

Dozzer
Today @ 3:15 PM ET
I’ll toss it out as a repeat….

What if they think Rielly could be more skilled defensively if he stays focused on that hence the need to bring in Klingberg?

Just a flat out guess but I’m curious what you guys think as well

Klingberg was a curious signing to be honest. He seems more closely to what we had than what we needed on the back end. Maybe the leafs see him as a better more creative option for the PP? Obviously you can’t play him with Rieilly 5 on 5. So maybe Reilly and Brodie pair back up for more of a shut down role? I don’t know what the rationale was with this. Maybe there is still more moves to be made.

I’ll toss it out as a repeat….

What if they think Rielly could be more skilled defensively if he stays focused on that hence the need to bring in Klingberg?

Just a flat out guess but I’m curious what you guys think as well
- Dozzer

I think if the Leafs thought Rielly could be better defensively, they would have done something about it by now.

Again, they had Tyson Barrie, so this opportunity would have presented itself prior to now. I think with Rielly, we know what we have - a smooth skater, but not necessarily a fast skater, with good vision, nice passing, a decent shot - but a below average slap shot.

Now, defensively he could improve by taking fewer chances - but I don't think he'll be paired with Klingberg (that would be a disaster), so I think he'll continue to be Rielly and free wheel. If they pair him with a responsible partner who is veteran and savvy enough to read the plays and retreat early, I think Rielly can have more success.

Let's not forget that he was our best offensive player in the playoffs by a huge margin at 5v5.

As for Samsonov…. What about that mid point?

$3.65 million seems about right for him tbh
- Dozzer

Samsonov between 3.5-4.5 seems very likely.

Hope they are able to trade Murray instead of a buyout. Maybe trade him with salary retained? Would there be any takers for Murray with 1-1.5 mill retained? The buy out hit for year 2 would suck when we know Matthews and Nylanders salary will jump substantially.

Dozzer
Today @ 3:15 PM ET
I’ll toss it out as a repeat….

What if they think Rielly could be more skilled defensively if he stays focused on that hence the need to bring in Klingberg?

Just a flat out guess but I’m curious what you guys think as well

Klingberg was a curious signing to be honest. He seems more closely to what we had than what we needed on the back end. Maybe the leafs see him as a better more creative option for the PP? Obviously you can’t play him with Rieilly 5 on 5. So maybe Reilly and Brodie pair back up for more of a shut down role? I don’t know what the rationale was with this. Maybe there is still more moves to be made.
- rSole

Well that’s my curiousity…. What if Rielly can take on the defensive role in a 5 on 5 so long as he has a truly capable offensive partner?

If Rielly was capable of that (admittedly I’m just tossing a guess out there since he has yet to truly prove it) could we see partners like this?:

Rielly Klingberg
McCabe Brodie
Gio/Liljegren/Timmins

Not big and nasty at all but I do think hoping Brodie gets moved is a fantasy, $5 million cap hit but a $7.5 million pay. It would cost the leafs to move him plus he has a 10 team NTC.

Like I said I won’t pretend to know, but I’m genuinely curious since this D does not look like the tough guy one that Treliving was hinting at.

I think if the Leafs thought Rielly could be better defensively, they would have done something about it by now.

Again, they had Tyson Barrie, so this opportunity would have presented itself prior to now. I think with Rielly, we know what we have - a smooth skater, but not necessarily a fast skater, with good vision, nice passing, a decent shot - but a below average slap shot.

Now, defensively he could improve by taking fewer chances - but I don't think he'll be paired with Klingberg (that would be a disaster), so I think he'll continue to be Rielly and free wheel. If they pair him with a responsible partner who is veteran and savvy enough to read the plays and retreat early, I think Rielly can have more success.

Let's not forget that he was our best offensive player in the playoffs by a huge margin at 5v5.
- Monkeypunk

Oh I know what he has proven and I 100% agree with you on this… I just didn’t grasp the Klingberg signing unless they have a different role in mind for Rielly. Who will the PP1 D man for instance? They role with 4 forwards so it’s either Rielly or Klingberg. Or maybe this is the purpose? Splitting up the offensive skill on the PP to respond 5 on 5 with one of the top two lines?

Like I said I’m not claiming to know anything about this.

Samsonov between 3.5-4.5 seems very likely.

Hope they are able to trade Murray instead of a buyout. Maybe trade him with salary retained? Would there be any takers for Murray with 1-1.5 mill retained? The buy out hit for year 2 would suck when we know Matthews and Nylanders salary will jump substantially.
- rSole

Got to get this salary out of here… just toss in a pick or prospect to get the job done, they currently mean less to the leafs than cap space.

I think if the Leafs thought Rielly could be better defensively, they would have done something about it by now.

Again, they had Tyson Barrie, so this opportunity would have presented itself prior to now. I think with Rielly, we know what we have - a smooth skater, but not necessarily a fast skater, with good vision, nice passing, a decent shot - but a below average slap shot.

Now, defensively he could improve by taking fewer chances - but I don't think he'll be paired with Klingberg (that would be a disaster), so I think he'll continue to be Rielly and free wheel. If they pair him with a responsible partner who is veteran and savvy enough to read the plays and retreat early, I think Rielly can have more success.

Let's not forget that he was our best offensive player in the playoffs by a huge margin at 5v5.
- Monkeypunk

You don't hand a 28 year old defenceman an 8 year X $7.5M contract, and then ask him to change his game.

In fact, you ask him to do take what he's been doing, and do it even more.

As for Samsonov…. What about that mid point?

$3.65 million seems about right for him tbh
- Dozzer

I have literally no idea how that's going to go. But here is my thinking:

I believe the last goalie to actually go to arbitration was Forsberg in 2019 - and he received a 1 year $775k settlement.

of similarly aged goalies, who are RFA signing deals:

Vejmelka after 1 NHL season, where he was .898 / 3.68 in 52 starts with a GSAx of -20 received $2.75 x 3

Sorokin, after 1 NHL season, where he was .918 / 2.17 in 22 starts with a GSAx of 3.4 received $4m x 3

Vanecek, after 2 NHL seasons in Washington, where he was .908 in both years and 2.69 and 2.67 over 37 and 42 starts, respectively, with a GSAx of -7.6 and -2.8,
received $3.4m x 3

Georgiev, after 3 NHL seasons with the Rangers, where he was .910, .905 and .898 with a GAA of 304, 2.71 and 2.92 over 34, 19 and 33 starts and a GSAx of 2, -3 and -5 received $3.4 x 3.

The other two comparables are Saros and Demko (2.27 / .927 for Saros prior to his contract and 2.85 / .915 for Demko) both at $5m x 4.

Samsonov has 4 seasons under his belt, with 26, 19, 44 and 42 starts in each year, and GSAx of .2, -6, -11 and 21 over those 4 years. His svp of .913, .902, .896 and .919 fluctuates as does his GAA of 2.54, 2.69, 3.02 and 2.33.

The first key for the arbiter to consider is that it's going to be a shorter term than any of the above contracts. The second is which goaltender most resembles Samsonov? Sorokin's single one season numbers are probably the closest, and Vanecek's usage is probably the closest. So if you take $3.6 - $4.2m x 4 as the upper range, and then figure a 1 year term? Maybe it comes down closer to $3m x 1 (scaling mathematically in my mind to $3.4 x 2, $4m x 3, and $4.5m x 4).

You don't hand a 28 year old defenceman an 8 year X $7.5M contract, and then ask him to change his game.

In fact, you ask him to do take what he's been doing, and do it even more.
- Atomic Wedgie

That’s what I’ve always thought, hence why the Klingberg signing confuses me

I have literally no idea how that's going to go. But here is my thinking:

I believe the last goalie to actually go to arbitration was Forsberg in 2019 - and he received a 1 year $775k settlement.

of similarly aged goalies, who are RFA signing deals:

Vejmelka after 1 NHL season, where he was .898 / 3.68 in 52 starts with a GSAx of -20 received $2.75 x 3

Sorokin, after 1 NHL season, where he was .918 / 2.17 in 22 starts with a GSAx of 3.4 received $4m x 3

Vanecek, after 2 NHL seasons in Washington, where he was .908 in both years and 2.69 and 2.67 over 37 and 42 starts, respectively, with a GSAx of -7.6 and -2.8,
received $3.4m x 3

Georgiev, after 3 NHL seasons with the Rangers, where he was .910, .905 and .898 with a GAA of 304, 2.71 and 2.92 over 34, 19 and 33 starts and a GSAx of 2, -3 and -5 received $3.4 x 3.

The other two comparables are Saros and Demko (2.27 / .927 for Saros prior to his contract and 2.85 / .915 for Demko) both at $5m x 4.

Samsonov has 4 seasons under his belt, with 26, 19, 44 and 42 starts in each year, and GSAx of .2, -6, -11 and 21 over those 4 years. His svp of .913, .902, .896 and .919 fluctuates as does his GAA of 2.54, 2.69, 3.02 and 2.33.

The first key for the arbiter to consider is that it's going to be a shorter term than any of the above contracts. The second is which goaltender most resembles Samsonov? Sorokin's single one season numbers are probably the closest, and Vanecek's usage is probably the closest. So if you take $3.6 - $4.2m x 4 as the upper range, and then figure a 1 year term? Maybe it comes down closer to $3m x 1 (scaling mathematically in my mind to $3.4 x 2, $4m x 3, and $4.5m x 4).
- Monkeypunk

Well here’s hoping they can pull off the shorter term deal for at least this year… however it’s risky… if he stands on his head on another one year deal what he might cost as an UFA could ramp up notably.

You don't hand a 28 year old defenceman an 8 year X $7.5M contract, and then ask him to change his game.

In fact, you ask him to do take what he's been doing, and do it even more.
- Atomic Wedgie

Play more playoff type hockey. That’s my ask of Rielly. He was terrific.

Play more playoff type hockey. That’s my ask of Rielly. He was terrific.
- Woderwick

Rielly-Schenn had second best goals against/60 in the playoffs (pairings with more than 100 minutes)

Well here’s hoping they can pull off the shorter term deal for at least this year… however it’s risky… if he stands on his head on another one year deal what he might cost as an UFA could ramp up notably.
- Dozzer

Since they are saying the Leafs are asking $2.4m and Samsonov is asking $4.9m, I don't think they are reaching a compromise before Friday. Obviously I don't know, but I'd imagine that the Leafs would like to keep Sammy and would like to have him with term, but the money just isn't there unless they make a trade.

As it stands, if the Leafs trade Matt Murray or are able to put him on LTIR for the season, they would have about $3m for Samsonov without having to make any moves (going 12F, 7D, 2G on the roster).

If the Leafs had to buyout Murray, they would have about $2.4m ($2.35 by my count, but maybe I'm slightly off - hence the $2.4m ask) to sign Samsonov.

I honestly believe that any term given to Samsonov would come with a higher figure that they can't afford without moving a roster player out.

But it's a serious roll of the dice for the Leafs - because if the arbiter gives Sammy more than $3m, it's going to be problematic.

Since they are saying the Leafs are asking $2.4m and Samsonov is asking $4.9m, I don't think they are reaching a compromise before Friday. Obviously I don't know, but I'd imagine that the Leafs would like to keep Sammy and would like to have him with term, but the money just isn't there unless they make a trade.

As it stands, if the Leafs trade Matt Murray or are able to put him on LTIR for the season, they would have about $3m for Samsonov without having to make any moves (going 12F, 7D, 2G on the roster).

If the Leafs had to buyout Murray, they would have about $2.4m ($2.35 by my count, but maybe I'm slightly off - hence the $2.4m ask) to sign Samsonov.

I honestly believe that any term given to Samsonov would come with a higher figure that they can't afford without moving a roster player out.

But it's a serious roll of the dice for the Leafs - because if the arbiter gives Sammy more than $3m, it's going to be problematic.
- Monkeypunk

Unless they have some magical deal for someone like Brodie I’m genuinely wondering about a few things

(Cap space, D toughness, physical play, etc)

He’s making $7.5 this year on his $5 million cap hit, he will cost something to be moved, what? I won’t pretend to know.

I’ll toss it out as a repeat….

What if they think Rielly could be more skilled defensively if he stays focused on that hence the need to bring in Klingberg?

Just a flat out guess but I’m curious what you guys think as well
- Dozzer

I think you're trying to play away from Riellys strengths in that case.

I think you're trying to play away from Riellys strengths in that case.
- fifty__missions

All I’m trying to grasp is why they’d sign another offensive d man at that price

Me being blind when it comes to a player’s skill set wouldn’t surprise me lol

All I’m trying to grasp is why they’d sign another offensive d man at that price

Me being blind when it comes to a player’s skill set wouldn’t surprise me lol
- Dozzer

Treliving wanted another puck moving guy back there who gives Keefe more options on the PP. Hopefully putting him with McCabe cuts back on the defensive woes with Morgan and TJ together.

All I’m trying to grasp is why they’d sign another offensive d man at that price

Me being blind when it comes to a player’s skill set wouldn’t surprise me lol
- Dozzer

Yeah. Who knows. It's a gamble on Klingberg for sure.

Treliving wanted another puck moving guy back there who gives Keefe more options on the PP. Hopefully putting him with McCabe cuts back on the defensive woes with Morgan and TJ together.
- Canada Cup

Our D as is, is not nearly good enough.

Our D as is, is not nearly good enough.
- fifty__missions

Dumba at 5m > Klingon at 4.1m

Our D as is, is not nearly good enough.
- fifty__missions

Yes, I think you might have mentioned that at some point. We’ll see how this plays out but so far the team that finished 7th in goals against is down a Holl and a Sandin and up a Klinnberg. I’m going to guess that Rielly has a better regular season than he did last year.