Sens Writer: OTT defeats FLA; the glimmer of hope continues

I would like to take a moment to thank the guys who have taken it upon themselves to keep the Sens forum going. Kudos to you.

I would like to take a moment to thank the guys who have taken it upon themselves to keep the Sens forum going. Kudos to you.
- Whatisavailable

Appreciate the kind words - it's just one of those things that needed to happen when we lost our regular team writer. Kudos to Gord_Wilson_2.0 for doing such a great job in writing pieces for the last few weeks, and to Octavarium for being among the first to volunteer for the Guest Writer rotation earlier in February.

There's an anticipated need for 7 blogs to cover the remainder of the regular season. I'll write as many of these pieces as necessary, but please let me know if you'd like to be part of the Guest Writers rotation and which of these scheduled blogs you'd like to contribute (see below). It's a pretty fun opportunity to take part and be part of keeping the site blog content fresh. We'll see where we're at after this stretch... though it will most likely transition to a semi-weekly posting schedule with more open-ended content.

Fri. Mar. 31 - PHI Recap/TOR Preview - Octavarium
Mon. Apr. 3 - TOR Recap/CBJ Recap - khawk*
Wed. Apr. 5 - CAR Recap/FLA Preview - khawk*
Fri. Apr. 7 - FLA Recap/TB Preview - khawk*
Sun. Apr. 9 - TB Recap/CAR Preview - khawk*
Tue. Apr. 11 - CAR Recap/BUF Preview - khawk*
Fri. Apr. 14 - BUF Recap/Post-Season Intro - khawk*

* tentative, pending interest from other Guest Writers

UGHHH..

Carolina twice. Such a heavy well coached team to play against.
We need people to start resting players here at the end to give us a chance.


I can step in for a blog if needed. I might be at the Phlyers game so maybe that one?

This team has been putting in very promising performances against top clubs. But it also has shown a predilection to get blown out of the water by less competitive teams in Chicago, Vancouver and Calgary. The team is unpredictable and enigmatic - I'm very curious to see what new owners might do to create more certainty.

Chabot is out a couple weeks now with an upper body injury, probably after that hit on the numbers again last game. They are dirty plays targeting one side of the back to drive through the shoulder blade against the glass.

Chabot is out a couple weeks now with an upper body injury, probably after that hit on the numbers again last game. They are dirty plays targeting one side of the back to drive through the shoulder blade against the glass.
- RyeDog13

Tyler Kleven?!

If I told you at the beginning of the season, Ottawa will have 3-30 goal scorers, maybe a 40 goal scorer, you'd think DeBrincat would be one of them for sure, likely the 40 goal scorer --- he's not. Unless he scores 6 in the remaining 8 games, he will score 20 something. I think giving him a 8 year deal right now is very dangerous. He is young, fast, and a good player other than scoring, but he is a 2nd line scorer IMO. I don't think he belongs on the top line of a team, which says a lot when he will likely ask for more $ than anyone on the team. I think 8.25M is the magic # - does anyone really think he should get paid STUTZLE money? I don't think so

If I told you at the beginning of the season, Ottawa will have 3-30 goal scorers, maybe a 40 goal scorer, you'd think DeBrincat would be one of them for sure, likely the 40 goal scorer --- he's not. Unless he scores 6 in the remaining 8 games, he will score 20 something. I think giving him a 8 year deal right now is very dangerous. He is young, fast, and a good player other than scoring, but he is a 2nd line scorer IMO. I don't think he belongs on the top line of a team, which says a lot when he will likely ask for more $ than anyone on the team. I think 8.25M is the magic # - does anyone really think he should get paid STUTZLE money? I don't think so
- AlfieisKing

Don't know. No matter what Sens will need to move some bodies over the next few years. It looks like they will have 6 players wanting the $8m pay day. Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, DiBrincat, Chabot and Anderson. On a projected $96m, cap that would work nicely. But, are they the right 6 getting the $8m package?

By way of comparison it will probably cost the Leafs closer to $60m for their top 6. So overall the Sens have done a good job in setting up this young team for the long term.

Only the topic of Debrincat....would you rather have him on the team (And giving up the 1st and 3rd) or would you rather have Kuzmenko from Van, who was available and, I dunno, free over the summer?

There still is a chance. 5 pts out. One win for Ott and one loss for Pitt and that is only 3 pts. Can you imagine it coming down to that game against Pitt in April?

Can you imagine even saying that last statement at the beginning of this year?

It would send the wrong message for management to make Debrincat the highest paid player of this team, we have to imagine Dorion knows that much. Dorion is likely to let new owners have their say on whether or not the player gets signed long term before FA. The player likely knows his play this year doesn't validate his QO value, but he does have arb rights and the agency to take his QO and bet on himself for a season at 9.25. I'd peg him at a 7M per year value, but he's already making 6.4 and he's 25 - his next termed contract is his chance for his biggest career payday, and I doubt the words 'team friendly' hold any water with him. His agent knew what they were doing when they structured his last contract.

I believe he will not sign a long term deal before FA and that he will be qualified with term negotiations continuing into the summer. The multimillion dollar question is: does he take his QO or not. If he does, it means he's not interested in a long stint in Ottawa. If that happens I suspect he gets traded next season at the deadline with half retained, even if he's playing absolutely out of his mind. New Jersey is going to go through a very similar scenario with Meier.

If I told you at the beginning of the season, Ottawa will have 3-30 goal scorers, maybe a 40 goal scorer, you'd think DeBrincat would be one of them for sure, likely the 40 goal scorer --- he's not. Unless he scores 6 in the remaining 8 games, he will score 20 something. I think giving him a 8 year deal right now is very dangerous. He is young, fast, and a good player other than scoring, but he is a 2nd line scorer IMO. I don't think he belongs on the top line of a team, which says a lot when he will likely ask for more $ than anyone on the team. I think 8.25M is the magic # - does anyone really think he should get paid STUTZLE money? I don't think so
- AlfieisKing

The larger issue with DeBrincat is that he's been specifically cast in a 2nd line role, which has resulted in (wait for it)... less production than the 1st line players. Coming out of training camp it was largely assumed there would be a 1A/1B situation with the line of DeBrincat-Stutzle-Giroux complementing the Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson line. Instead, DeBrincat has been playing the majority of the season with Pinto-Batherson, which is an undeniable drop-off from playing alongside Patrick Kane. It's also notable that when given a chance to play with the team's best players on the PP, he leads the team in PP production.

How much of an impact would having different even-strength linemates make? It's hard to say for sure, but let's consider the fact that at even-strength Stutzle-Giroux as a C-RW pair have scored a combined 99pts vs. a combined 56pts for Pinto-Batherson. This means DeBrincat gets roughly 60% of the production support from his C-RW linemates as he would get on the top line. So it's maybe not surprising that 60% of a 40G season equals 24G... which is exactly the number of goals that DeBrincat has so far this year. And we haven't even mentioned the fact that Pinto is a rookie centre, or that both he and Batherson missed substantial time to major injuries last season.

Regardless, DeBrincat is still among the top-30 scoring wingers in the NHL this year in points, and is the only winger on that list who is 3rd on his own team in winger scoring. That means even without the benefit of playing with top-line talent, he's still productive enough to be a top-line winger on half the teams in the NHL. So any kind of attempt to frame him as "just" a 2nd-line winger isn't going to fly in RFA negotiations. Personally, I think you'll either see him sign long-term just under the Stutzle/Tkachuk glass AAV ceiling ($7.9M-$8.2M), or you'll see him hold out as an RFA to go to a team where he's assured a more prominent role/$$$.

The Sens can go the arbitration route with DeBrincat. That is risky on a number of fronts but they could land him for around $7.25M next season and then either move him with that contract or sign him.

The larger issue with DeBrincat is that he's been specifically cast in a 2nd line role, which has resulted in (wait for it)... less production than the 1st line players. Coming out of training camp it was largely assumed there would be a 1A/1B situation with the line of DeBrincat-Stutzle-Giroux complementing the Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson line. Instead, DeBrincat has been playing the majority of the season with Pinto-Batherson, which is an undeniable drop-off from playing alongside Patrick Kane. It's also notable that when given a chance to play with the team's best players on the PP, he leads the team in PP production.

How much of an impact would having different even-strength linemates make? It's hard to say for sure, but let's consider the fact that at even-strength Stutzle-Giroux as a C-RW pair have scored a combined 99pts vs. a combined 56pts for Pinto-Batherson. This means DeBrincat gets roughly 60% of the production support from his C-RW linemates as he would get on the top line. So it's maybe not surprising that 60% of a 40G season equals 24G... which is exactly the number of goals that DeBrincat has so far this year. And we haven't even mentioned the fact that Pinto is a rookie centre, or that both he and Batherson missed substantial time to major injuries last season.

Regardless, DeBrincat is still among the top-30 scoring wingers in the NHL this year in points, and is the only winger on that list who is 3rd on his own team in winger scoring. That means even without the benefit of playing with top-line talent, he's still productive enough to be a top-line winger on half the teams in the NHL. So any kind of attempt to frame him as "just" a 2nd-line winger isn't going to fly in RFA negotiations. Personally, I think you'll either see him sign long-term just under the Stutzle/Tkachuk glass AAV ceiling ($7.9M-$8.2M), or you'll see him hold out as an RFA to go to a team where he's assured a more prominent role/$$$.
- khawk

I think Debrincat might be a situation where everyone ends up on the same page in terms of understanding. Maybe both the Sens and DeBrincat decide to move forward this summer. If, for example, the Sens were to flip DeBrincat and then role those assets into acquiring a power forward.

I really like this team. But they need a stronger physical presence on the second line. Formenton will be back next year and the third line the bottom 6 should will be soild.

We will be okay.

Regardless, DeBrincat is still among the top-30 scoring wingers in the NHL this year in points, and is the only winger on that list who is 3rd on his own team in winger scoring. That means even without the benefit of playing with top-line talent, he's still productive enough to be a top-line winger on half the teams in the NHL. So any kind of attempt to frame him as "just" a 2nd-line winger isn't going to fly in RFA negotiations. Personally, I think you'll either see him sign long-term just under the Stutzle/Tkachuk glass AAV ceiling ($7.9M-$8.2M), or you'll see him hold out as an RFA to go to a team where he's assured a more prominent role/$$$.
- khawk

I agree with you that if we are to sign Debrincat, that his contract would come in at the $7.9M to $8.2M range. He needs to come in under Tkachuk and Stutzle. Patrik Laine is a reasonable comparison and his salary is $8.7M. Considering that Debrincat does not drive play for his line, $8M would seem to be a reasonable number.

The bigger issues are cap allocation and team composition. Debrincat was the fourth best forward and defence/center are premium positions. Dollars are needed for fair contracts for Pinto, Sanderson and a #1 goalie.

The Sens can go the arbitration route with DeBrincat. That is risky on a number of fronts but they could land him for around $7.25M next season and then either move him with that contract or sign him.
- HoweHatrick

Except Debrincat has arb rights. If he gets qualified, he can wait to negotiate term or he can opt to take his qualifying offer of 9M and walk to unrestricted free agency. Point is the player ultimately holds the cards, he could bet on himself to have a career year, take the QO and try to cash in for even more in 2025, or he can settle on a lower number and lock in long term with the Sens. John Klingberg bet on himself this year with Anaheim (albeit as a UFA) and as a result will probably lose several million career dollars, so there's a risk to the player there. Debrincat is mercurial - compare Chychrun who really has shown he wants to be here... It's very difficult to ascertain what kind of enthusiasm Debrincat has being a Sen, and that doesn't bode super well for his long term prospects with the team.

I ran the NHL draft simulator 100 times. With the Sens being in 12th last, I got them to move up 10 spots to the 2nd overall pick, 3 times!

With Chabot out, would you be happy if the Sens got into better draft position for the lottery or win and just miss out (which is pretty much giving our pick over to Arizona).

I would like to take a moment to thank the guys who have taken it upon themselves to keep the Sens forum going. Kudos to you.
- Whatisavailable

This. I've been happy to read the blogs you guest writers have been putting up even if the team isn't doing as well as we'd like.

UGHHH..

Carolina twice. Such a heavy well coached team to play against.
We need people to start resting players here at the end to give us a chance.


I can step in for a blog if needed. I might be at the Phlyers game so maybe that one?
- Octavarium

Sure, you're welcome to the next blog after the PHI game.

Updated Blog Schedule
Fri. Mar. 31 - PHI Recap/TOR Preview - Octavarium
Mon. Apr. 3 - TOR Recap/CBJ Recap - khawk*
Wed. Apr. 5 - CAR Recap/FLA Preview - khawk*
Fri. Apr. 7 - FLA Recap/TB Preview - khawk*
Sun. Apr. 9 - TB Recap/CAR Preview - khawk*
Tue. Apr. 11 - CAR Recap/BUF Preview - khawk*
Fri. Apr. 14 - BUF Recap/Post-Season Intro - khawk*

* tentative, pending interest from other Guest Writers

Chabot being out is a nasty blow, but they appear to be ready to get Talbot back in the near future (practiced today). Kleven also appears to be ready to make his debut, as per the most recent speculated lineup on DailyFaceoff.com

Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-Hamonic
Kleven-Holden

Place your bets on who might be the first K-train big hit. Joseph may also be back in the lineup, given that he's listed on the 2nd PP unit. It's clearly time for his annual 12Pts/11GP run.

Kleven is a body they need. We will soon know if he has the game as well.

Our season likely ends at game 82. I'm more than content with the result. I said at the beginning of the season I would be happy if they were relevant after Christmas. And, they have been.

Sounds like they are about to blow everything up in Winnipeg. PLD will be available before the draft. The Sens have the assets to do a deal. Don't believe Montreal is only option.

Klevin may not be as good as everyone thinks. It's very easy to look like a stud in college. You've got men playing against boys, all levels of players on some teams so the competition isn't always that high. They play fewer games than the OHL and I find players coming out of US colleges are often ill prepared. Some of the best of the best (Sanderson) look fine. Others...not so much.

I remember a Brian Murray quote back the day. I can't recall specifically but the gist of it was that there was a reason these kids fell in the draft and it wasn't because they had committed to college. They committed to college because they KNEW that they'd not be drafted high enough or at all.

Im just saying....temper expectations.

Klevin may not be as good as everyone thinks. It's very easy to look like a stud in college. You've got men playing against boys, all levels of players on some teams so the competition isn't always that high. They play fewer games than the OHL and I find players coming out of US colleges are often ill prepared. Some of the best of the best (Sanderson) look fine. Others...not so much.

I remember a Brian Murray quote back the day. I can't recall specifically but the gist of it was that there was a reason these kids fell in the draft and it wasn't because they had committed to college. They committed to college because they KNEW that they'd not be drafted high enough or at all.

Im just saying....temper expectations.
- Octavarium

I think we'd be lucky if Kleven developed into an Edmondson/Chiarot type of player. No guarantee, he didn't post big numbers in college so I'd temper expectations on the score sheet. If he does a decent job of controlling play in his own end, great. Wish he was right handed though - our left side is very offensively inclined, and offhand blue liners usually are better suited as puck movers, not stay at home D.

Little too early to make a call on Klevan. However, with his signing, the window on Thompson and JBD is rapidly closing. Neither has been able to show they are legitimate NHL d-men to date. Klevan could easily pass both in the depth chart. He won’t be an Erik Karlsson, but a Marc Methot type would be awesome.

Apparently Talbot wants a $5million/yr contract? On what planet??