Zach Jarom: Hot January Continues, Trade Rumors, and Game Day: Hawks vs Kings

First--which is not where the Hawks will be drafting

First--which is not where the Hawks will be drafting
- RaleighHawk

Remember it is not guaranteed the draft spot despite favorable odds. Hope we at minimum get a top five pick. A top two would be great

First--which is not where the Hawks will be drafting
- RaleighHawk

They’ll be drafting 4th, I’ve been saying that all season.

The Canucks fire Boudreau and hire Tocchet.

They’ll be drafting 4th, I’ve been saying that all season.
- DarthKane

Most Blackhawk fans would be terribly disappointed to not land a top three pick. If there was a Vegas odds the top three choices probably are Bedard. Fantilli, Carlsson. Too risky picking the Russian.. A team with a second first round selection, or a fairly good NHL team with a descent amount of legitimate prospects, can gamble and select him.

You liked Caufield previously and you were quite astute. It is still early to cement a top five picks. Hopefully we draft before position slot five; who would you choose in your top five. I am not interested in debate; I am merely curious how you rate them
.

The Canucks fire Boudreau and hire Tocchet.
- DarthKane

Vancouver has some scorers, two good puck moving dmen and a good goaltender. They should not be free falling. I never was a fan of Boudreau, certainly not to develop young players.

Touchet is ok for the time being. Would someone give a review of the strength/weakness of Tocchet as a coach. I have some thoughts but unsure if I am entirely correct

They also have two young Russians who could turn out well

The Athletic did a piece on prospects that have seen their stock rise since the draft. Ryan Greene made the list.

Greene was a tough player to figure out as a draft eligible. In the USHL you saw the talent he had. He was a good skater with legit skill, playmaking and finishing ability who also killed penalties for his junior team. Yet in his draft season he was 30th in league scoring and well below a point/game. I still liked him because of the talent but wasn’t over the moon about him. This season we’ve seen that talent again as a freshman at Boston University, but it’s on display more consistently. Greene has been excellent in college and came very close to making Canada’s U20 team.

Vancouver has some scorers, two good puck moving dmen and a good goaltender. They should not be free falling. I never was a fan of Boudreau, certainly not to develop young players.

Touchet is ok for the time being. Would someone give a review of the strength/weakness of Tocchet as a coach. I have some thoughts but unsure if I am entirely correct

They also have two young Russians who could turn out well
- jhawk59[

And to even be considering trading Horvat is insane. Poorly managed team ......you give Horvat a fair offer and settle for a slightly better deal than that for his asking price/salary. Build around what you have.
/quote]

Vancouver has some scorers, two good puck moving dmen and a good goaltender. They should not be free falling. I never was a fan of Boudreau, certainly not to develop young players.

Touchet is ok for the time being. Would someone give a review of the strength/weakness of Tocchet as a coach. I have some thoughts but unsure if I am entirely correct

They also have two young Russians who could turn out well
- jhawk59

A lot of Vancouver’s issues can be attributed to Demko’s injury. Spencer Martin and Collin Delia are not an NHL calibre goaltending duo. Garland was underperforming, but otherwise their forwards were playing well.

Most Blackhawk fans would be terribly disappointed to not land a top three pick. If there was a Vegas odds the top three choices probably are Bedard. Fantilli, Carlsson. Too risky picking the Russian.. A team with a second first round selection, or a fairly good NHL team with a descent amount of legitimate prospects, can gamble and select him.

You liked Caufield previously and you were quite astute. It is still early to cement a top five picks. Hopefully we draft before position slot five; who would you choose in your top five. I am not interested in debate; I am merely curious how you rate them
.
- jhawk59

We all could have different perspective’s on the draft, I am interested in other people’s takes and have no desire to debate either. My top 5 for the Hawks would be:

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Michkov
5. Dvorsky

I think there’s a 50/50 chance the Hawks draft Michkov at #4, he’d be the most talented player available, but he some with considerable risk.

Good blog Zach.

I read an article somewhere recently, Sportsnet or Daily Faceoff possibly, regarding Toews' value. The writer made a comparison to Bergeron. They both have similar TOI and face off %. Bergeron has about 10 more points than Toews but considering Boston has scored 60 or 70 more goals than the Hawks, Bergeron has had that many more opportunities to accumulate those 10 extra points. The writer went on to describe a few trade scenarios were Toews would return a 1st. Personally I think a 2nd + another pick/prospect would be an ok return. If he waives of course.

Good blog Zach.

I read an article somewhere recently, Sportsnet or Daily Faceoff possibly, regarding Toews' value. The writer made a comparison to Bergeron. They both have similar TOI and face off %. Bergeron has about 10 more points than Toews but considering Boston has scored 60 or 70 more goals than the Hawks, Bergeron has had that many more opportunities to accumulate those 10 extra points. The writer went on to describe a few trade scenarios were Toews would return a 1st. Personally I think a 2nd + another pick/prospect would be an ok return. If he waives of course.
- boilermaker100

I don’t think trading Toews and Kane is solely about the return, if KD can get a 2nd+ for Toews and a 1st+ for Kane (with the “+” being not much, maybe a b-level prospect) that’s a win for the Hawks. 19 and 88 have done enough for the Hawks, I don’t think KD needs to get anything for them, although it would help the rebuild. It’s just time turn the page and fully move onto the next phase of the Blackhawks.

Normally I’d want to maximize the return for any players. But for Toews and Kane I’m ok with them dictating their future, even if that means not waiving their NMC and walking in the summer for nothing.

We all could have different perspective’s on the draft, I am interested in other people’s takes and have no desire to debate either. My top 5 for the Hawks would be:

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Michkov
5. Dvorsky

I think there’s a 50/50 chance the Hawks draft Michkov at #4, he’d be the most talented player available, but he some with considerable risk.
- DarthKane

My top 5 atm is same as yours but would put Will Smith to 5th spot. If you disagree I Will slap you.

My top 5 atm is same as yours but would put Will Smith to 5th spot. If you disagree I Will slap you.
- MjulQvist

via GIPHY

I don’t think trading Toews and Kane is solely about the return, if KD can get a 2nd+ for Toews and a 1st+ for Kane (with the “+” being not much, maybe a b-level prospect) that’s a win for the Hawks. 19 and 88 have done enough for the Hawks, I don’t think KD needs to get anything for them, although it would help the rebuild. It’s just time turn the page and fully move onto the next phase of the Blackhawks.

Normally I’d want to maximize the return for any players. But for Toews and Kane I’m ok with them dictating their future, even if that means not waiving their NMC and walking in the summer for nothing.
- DarthKane

All good points Darth.

We all could have different perspective’s on the draft, I am interested in other people’s takes and have no desire to debate either. My top 5 for the Hawks would be:

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Michkov
5. Dvorsky

I think there’s a 50/50 chance the Hawks draft Michkov at #4, he’d be the most talented player available, but he some with considerable risk.
- DarthKane

I cannot keep overstating that after Connor Bedard, and then some front runners, there are plenty of players that will be taken in slots # 5-12 that after further maturation, might be be considered equals to all the names in that second tier after Bedard. Don't get hung up on the top 4 
Some teams will not pass on the Russian at #2 
(Especially because Fantilli poop the bed at world junior.... when you were wondering about the Swede. Carlsson or the Russian Michkov. (It took Ovi a year before he made the trip across the pond and it took Malkin two season after his draft[ selection.) Oh, the Ukrainian War? Didn’t players make their way over during the Cold War?

BTW, Carlsson (and Salé were sick the entire first part of the tourney and then looked so good and smart and skilled by the end.

I think Fantilli only distanced himself by yet another mile from Connor Bedard.  (Sure, …he will be a pro, maybe next year.) I don't know if Fantilli didn't get the way you play in a tournament, and he WAS asked to play a wing, something he never has done, ever. )Sure, he has speed, size, strength, and a shot (all the things JIm likes). he seemed to be playing in a hurray in areas where there wasn't a rush to execute.
Sorry, the College scoring phenom in competition for the Hobey Baker award
He needs lots of work on parts of his game. 
He needed low down and move the puck between the group.
He consistently turned the puck over in the defensive zone.
He was horrendous defensively most of the tourney.
First game, he tries the "Michigan" and I know I sound like the Philly Coach, but the game just started!
In teh samer game he completely lost th pointman who scored the Czech's tying goal.
Took a stupid dangerous kneeing penalty.
Pressed and continued to play as individualistic as possible. It just increased doubts that he was ready to advance to the best league in the world, where fast 4th lines, playing as teammates beat the Blues last night...as an example.

So draft slots except number one are not set.

And the players like Salé, Dvorsky, Barlow, Will Smith, Benson, and Yager (who has really underperformed so far with chinks in the armor showing…) and the others in that top ten may end as BETTER players than some selected above in the second tier of Carlsson, fantilli, and Michkov.
Fact:
Carlsson needs time. Michkov IS the second best player in the class and Fantilli has no hold on slot two. (No matter what MY list or any non NHL scouting staff "reveals.")

Most guys paid to evaluate say the top 4 picks in the 2023 draft most yrs would go #1 overall. So despite the depth from 5 on down you really wanna land a top 4 spot this yr.

Add that three of them are natural centerman, Michkov is not, and they are doubly more attractive despite some claims Michkov is the best prospect to come outa Russia since OV.

Wiz, your post in the last blog caught my eye about Fantilli. Curious your thoughts on my take. Yes, he started L1 and was dropped to L4 by tournament's end.

This is seen by most as a detriment, I see it otherwise. How often do you see a top prospect struggle at a WJC, an 18 yr old to especially, get demoted and crawl into a shell whether from a confidence hit or he sulks?

Not only did Fantilli not sulk with his demotion he ramped up his considerable effort/physicality/hunger. Firstly, few have a tool kit/mentality to play L1 or L4, but he showed the mentality of whatever is needed of me, whatever helps the team, I'll do anything, play anywhere.

In fact his showing at the WJC brought him up in my eyes because of his willingness/team first and I saw most every one of his jr games and his development in that time. Kid took his demotion and ran with it, running opponents thru the wall all the while showing the hands and feet that has NHL organIzation's salivating.... Gimme lots of these types. Peter Forsberg style.

I think most scouts/organIzations give his WJC showing 10% of their grade on him. A CHLer on the WJC stage shows what he can do vs best on best in his age group, an NCAAer plays vs 22-23-24 yr olds all yr. A CHLer has nothing to show vs anyone older than a 20 yr old cuz he never competed vs them.

Fantilli is setting near scoring records as a true freshman vs many who are men in the NCAA. IMO this will be 90% of his grade for NHL organIzations.

As the following Elite Prospects 11 month old, before his wrecking the NCAA, evaluation says many prospects have skill/feet/shot, few, very few, have the physicality Fantilli craves. And I'd add he's a true centerman. ..... For this reason and questions, size and that Michkov is a winger I think Fantilli goes 2nd.

https://www.youtube.com/w...ab_channel=EliteProspects

Wiz, your post in the last blog caught my eye about Fantilli. Curious your thoughts on my take. Yes, he started L1 and was dropped to L4 by tournament's end.

This is seen by most as a detriment, I see it otherwise. How often do you see a top prospect struggle at a WJC, an 18 yr old to especially, get demoted and crawl into a shell whether from a confidence hit or he sulks?

Not only did Fantilli not sulk with his demotion he ramped up his considerable effort/physicality/hunger. Firstly, few have a tool kit/mentality to play L1 or L4, but he showed the mentality of whatever is needed of me, whatever helps the team, I'll do anything, play anywhere.

I have no clue how any scout gradesd the world Juniors, but I only know what was true to my eyes...fantilli sucked. He played me me from the start, was lost in his end, and was completely lost in the idea of a team attack by a line of three players.
To me that was the only facts I have. He played far too fast, an wasn't looking set ups, just shots.
I don't remember if you remember me saying this prior to the World Junior, that I thought that I saw considerable growth by Fantilli in the details at the college level. That I saw a guy not resting on his abilities, but trying to grow more parts to be a superb all around 3 zone responsible dominant player.

Then he shows up and looks like I was watching a different player when he is surrounded by quality draft age kids from Canada and who all want to win.

I really don't think I imagined his "way" on the ice with them.





https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=CWhBXu5kmZQ&ab_channel=EliteProspects
- Mr Ricochet

I have had an Elite prospects high level subscription for awhile and there breakdowns draft guesses and rankings don't excite me enough to take them to heart as expert opinions...Did you see that panel? I bet three of themmebers ages added up don't total mine, so I truly think they are not the better judges of Fantilli or anybody.

Hell, when I heard some of the first round predictions they made in that panel, I almost spit up in my water bottle. (and I laughed when William Whitelaw was a first rounder, a great kid ...but if he ain't scoring, he ain't doing anything anywhere else out on the sheet.

Look, I should be a breath of fresh air, because I am standing by my convictions that maybe no one should believe the hype that has locked Adam Fantilli in as the second best player overalll for any team selecting...because NOW I have doubts.
(U C anybody else criticizing him?)
I am just saying last year we saw that the pre-predictions of who is the best the second best, etc. Turned out pretty different, and don't be surprised if there are no locks right now except at slot one, that is all.

Oh and those three natural centremen all played on the wings in the World Junior U-20.
The returns of the three who play centre in the 2024 World's, well, that player probably is a centre in the bigs...
Bedard and Carlsson showed great adaptation to the wing role...Adam wasn't able to. You gotta give me that.

Jhawk59:

No chance Michkov drifts as low as the Tampa pick or one of the Ranger picks, let alone the 2nd round.

This is not Ivan Miroshnichenko.

Don't get too excite, this is still a bad Team , JUst maybe not 32nd in the league , but not in top 25

Jhawk59:

No chance Michkov drifts as low as the Tampa pick or one of the Ranger picks, let alone the 2nd round.

This is not Ivan Miroshnichenko.
- wiz1901

(Not directed at you; Wiz)

I’m not worried about who the Hawks draft in 2023, I think it will be a top line forward regardless of where they draft and who is available. This rebuild isn’t Bedard-or-bust. Yes, he’s the prospect we all covet most, but it’s not a failure if they don’t get him.

KD needs to fill the cupboards with as many quality prospects as possible. 5 picks in the first 2 rounds in 2022 and 4 (and counting) in each of the next two drafts is a great start.

I have had an Elite prospects high level subscription for awhile and there breakdowns draft guesses and rankings don't excite me enough to take them to heart as expert opinions...Did you see that panel? I bet three of themmebers ages added up don't total mine, so I truly think they are not the better judges of Fantilli or anybody.

Hell, when I heard some of the first round predictions they made in that panel, I almost spit up in my water bottle. (and I laughed when William Whitelaw was a first rounder, a great kid ...but if he ain't scoring, he ain't doing anything anywhere else out on the sheet.

Look, I should be a breath of fresh air, because I am standing by my convictions that maybe no one should believe the hype that has locked Adam Fantilli in as the second best player overalll for any team selecting...because NOW I have doubts.
(U C anybody else criticizing him?)
I am just saying last year we saw that the pre-predictions of who is the best the second best, etc. Turned out pretty different, and don't be surprised if there are no locks right now except at slot one, that is all.
- wiz1901

Respectfully to you, EP or Craig Button types I don't care where folks have a prospect slotted. I read you or EP for EVALUATIONS on what you SEE, not where you have players ranked. ........ That's your thing, your competitive world, where you have a player ranked compared to the other guys, not mine, for the most part. I'm never surprised or angry at a slotting.

But this can't be avoided at times. We have folks here, and everywhere, saying I loved this guy where a Dach was taken and look at him now. Well sure in a vacuum you can swing and hit but it's all about value pick after pick, rd after rd, yr after yr, decade after decade. Swing every time, you lose. I advocated for Dobson and when they drafted Boqvuist I was sickened, posted 5 seconds later and besides once or twice since never said another word. I did however post I liked Wahlstrom too many times since. I get more value thinking about my misses than hits.

My world? Like the question I asked you from your decades of evaluation in my first post that you haven't answered. Does Fantilli getting demoted from L1 to L4, and running with that demotion, show you something that no fancy stat or measurable can, his HEART, MIND and compete???????????????? It does mine in a big big way.

I'm most interested in leaning on your expertise for questions like that than where you have players slotted. ....... Same as I asked totem as a guy who sees a jr team consistently like he does Seattle. Since coming back from the WJC have you noticed any positive or negative changes in Korchinski or Allen?

Watching enough jrs, or any level/team really, one might see a switch flip. To my eye one shift into Reichel's last promotion I saw that switch flip and posted immediately. And IMO didn't need a scout's eye to see that cuz I ain't no scout just as totem isn't but going by his posts dude has some hockey IQ and I read what he posts.

If someone was interested in my thoughts on Hrabal IMO I can be much more helpful by telling him what I SEE than where I slot him but I'm not a draftnik like you....... I'd say I saw him last night for the first time in 2 weeks and that his body language has drastically changed in that time, that it looks like Omaha's terrible season is wearing on him, that he looks almost defeated.

Doesn't change the fact that I'm this close to saying in my 15 yrs of following jrs I might say Hrabal has more tools than any goalie I've ever seen, including Knight.

Some stop pucks cuz they are athletic, some cuz they are technical, some cuz they can track, some cuz they can read, some cuz they are poised, some cuz they are explosive, some cuz they are efficient, some cuz they battle, some cuz they can skate, some cuz they are big but I have never seen any goalie prospect have EVERY one of those tools like Hrabal does and he's 6ft 6 in!!!

Interesting to see him work thru these recent struggles. This is where I see value in reading evaluations much like I mentioned to you Whitelaw is different the last little bit. Kid is harder on pucks, attacking the middle, showing a confidence he hasn't until now. A switch might have gone off? .... I mention this to you not for slotting purposes but for a heads up and you do what you will with that.

Not here to tell you hey, I had Dobson above Boqvuist, and posted so the nanosecond they took the Svede, or I saw the switch flip for Reichel in his first shift a month ago, and posted so before The Athletic, or anyone else. Not my niche, Wiz.

Right or wrong I have thoughts on hockey players, USHLers in particular, cuz my eyes are on them. Take it or leave it........ Sorry for the rant just a clarification of sorts and that being I read, and post, for evaluations not slotting. Much like reading the Racing Form. I read evaluations, sort thru the info and place my bet on my opinion not others. Hell, that's where the fun is.

I agree with Darth on Toews and Kane. However there could be other factors.
- Everyone knows they have NMC's
- Will a 3rd team get involved? Return if they have a cap hit of $2.625 mil is much different than if the cap hit is $5.25 mil.
- Are there other pieces included?
- Will Brisson lay the groundwork for an extension or new contract before agreeing to waive the NMC's?
- Does Kane have a few good games before the TDL removing questions about his health?
-Maybe there will be conditions attached to the pick.
- Will a 3rd team get involved because they have the draft pick(s) or prospects the Hawks are looking for?

I can see scenarios where combining Toews and a 3rd could get back a late round first.
Some of the cup contenders have their own late round first, but also have an early 2nd round pick from another team. There is not that much difference between a late 1st and early 2nd round pick.

Wondering what the cost is of getting a third team to retain 2.625m for the rest of the season.

Is it a third or fourth round pick? Or a prospect like one of the Rockford D-men?