Mike Augello: Podcast Sunday – The Leafs Convo and Off The Post Radio

Mike Augello: Podcast Sunday – The Leafs Convo and Off The Post Radio
- mikeinbuffalo

I got Mike'd ....

Cap/LTIR sitch ....

The 'cap space' vs 'ltir space' always gets people tangled up. Usually b/c the sources write their explanations in a confusing way.

Assuming the Leafs plan to remain in LTIR for the rest of the year (Muzzin) then the easiest way to think about how much they have to spend is to use the 82.5 (remember they got to within a couple of bucks of the threshold on purpose) and ignore Muzzin's AAV and assume that Robertson and Mete go to the A when/if they return (or they replace one of the other 23 guys on the roster if needed).

Using that ....they have 23 guys on the roster and about 1.9M (in actual AAV - ie. not prorated) in space to add. To add they'll have to remove at least one body (again full AAV not prorated). Pretend that Simmonds ....that'd mean they have 2.8'ish in room to add.

If they want more space they can move more contracts (say a Kerfoot and his 3.5M) and get that spending amount up to as much as Muzzin's 5.6M.

5.6M ....with the ability to get a rental at 50% ...means they could literally add anyone if they want to pay the price.

If Muzzin comes back early ...then it's all out the door and they'll have to find a way to move AAV off the roster ...I don't see that happening. The late Feb "check in" means he wouldn't even begin working out until March so no way they'd bring him back given what's at stake.

I got Mike'd ....

Cap/LTIR sitch ....

The 'cap space' vs 'ltir space' always gets people tangled up. Usually b/c the sources write their explanations in a confusing way.

Assuming the Leafs plan to remain in LTIR for the rest of the year (Muzzin) then the easiest way to think about how much they have to spend is to use the 82.5 (remember they got to within a couple of bucks of the threshold on purpose) and ignore Muzzin's AAV and assume that Robertson and Mete go to the A when/if they return (or they replace one of the other 23 guys on the roster if needed).

Using that ....they have 23 guys on the roster and about 1.9M (in actual AAV - ie. not prorated) in space to add. To add they'll have to remove at least one body (again full AAV not prorated). Pretend that Simmonds ....that'd mean they have 2.8'ish in room to add.

If they want more space they can move more contracts (say a Kerfoot and his 3.5M) and get that spending amount up to as much as Muzzin's 5.6M.

5.6M ....with the ability to get a rental at 50% ...means they could literally add anyone if they want to pay the price.

If Muzzin comes back early ...then it's all out the door and they'll have to find a way to move AAV off the roster ...I don't see that happening. The late Feb "check in" means he wouldn't even begin working out until March so no way they'd bring him back given what's at stake.
- The Law

The issues for Dubas will be where he adds and what prospect and draft pick capital he invests. He’s got the $

- The Law

At the deadline, there are usually about 41 days left out of a 186 day season. That means that at the deadline, a player's cap hit will only count 41/186 of their annual cap hit on the new team. Therefore, a team's projected cap space for the year can fit 186/41 (4.53) Annual Cap Hit at the deadline. For example, if a team has $1M projected cap space for the year and that accrues, at the deadline they can add $1M * (186/41) = $4.54M in Annual Cap Hit.

Simplified - if Leafs have about $2M cap space at the TDL - a player or combination of players totaling about $9M AAV can be added to the roster without any subtraction.

At the deadline, there are usually about 41 days left out of a 186 day season. That means that at the deadline, a player's cap hit will only count 41/186 of their annual cap hit on the new team. Therefore, a team's projected cap space for the year can fit 186/41 (4.53) Annual Cap Hit at the deadline. For example, if a team has $1M projected cap space for the year and that accrues, at the deadline they can add $1M * (186/41) = $4.54M in Annual Cap Hit.


- winsix

Simplified - if Leafs have about $2M cap space at the TDL - a player or combination of players totaling about $9M AAV can be added to the roster without any subtraction.

Leafs don't have Cap Space. They are in LTIR.

The issues for Dubas will be where he adds and what prospect and draft pick capital he invests. He’s got the $
- Canada Cup

top six LW, a steady RHD and an insurance backup goalie in that order IMO.

The issues for Dubas will be where he adds and what prospect and draft pick capital he invests. He’s got the $
- Canada Cup

Yup.

Want a winger making 5.5M. Just need the other team to take on 50%.

Want a winger making 10.5. Other team takes on 50% and they move Kerfoot (or equivalent) money.

[quote=winsix]

Leafs don't have Cap Space. They are in LTIR.
- The Law

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs


Deadline cap space according to Cap Friendly at the moment with no further manipulations and Muzzin out for the season is $1.885M

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs


Deadline cap space according to Cap Friendly at the moment with no further manipulations and Muzzin out for the season is $1.885M
- winsix

It's LTIR cap space ...they haven't been under 82.5 since October. It's why I said the explanations are misleading. Who's the source for the quote you had about them having 9M?

Capfriendly has it right ...
CURRENT CAP SPACE Tooltip : $1,885,000
DEADLINE CAP SPACE Tooltip : $1,885,000
TODAY'S CAP HIT Tooltip : $87,786,663

...whomever has interpreted that to equate to $9M in space misunderstands how LTIR works. They have an "LTIR salary pool" now.

It's LTIR cap space ...they haven't been under 82.5 since October. It's why I said the explanations are misleading. Who's the source for the quote you had about them having 9M?

Capfriendly has it right ...
CURRENT CAP SPACE Tooltip : $1,885,000
DEADLINE CAP SPACE Tooltip : $1,885,000
TODAY'S CAP HIT Tooltip : $87,786,663

...whomever has interpreted that to equate to $9M in space misunderstands how LTIR works.
- The Law

You mean Puckpedia?
https://puckpedia.com/sal...Hit%20at%20the%20deadline.

You mean Puckpedia?
https://puckpedia.com/sal...Hit%20at%20the%20deadline.
- winsix

Lots of explanations out there ...

https://www.yardbarker.co...cisions/s1_15332_38325217

And no, Puckpedia's quote is correct. It simply sets out a hypothetical (written last summer) about how pro-rating cap space works. If the Leafs were NOT in LTIR then it would be accurate. They are in LTIR though ..so it's irrelevant to their situation.

The quote I asked you for the source was the little blip underneath that said that the Leafs 1.9M is equal to $9M in space. Who wrote that?

Lots of explanations out there ...

https://www.yardbarker.co...cisions/s1_15332_38325217

And no, Puckpedia's quote is correct. It simply sets out a hypothetical (written last summer) about how pro-rating cap space works. If the Leafs were NOT in LTIR then it would be accurate. They are in LTIR though ..so it's irrelevant to their situation.

The quote I asked you for the source was the little blip underneath that said that the Leafs 1.9M is equal to $9M in space. Who wrote that?
- The Law

https://www.capfriendly.com/trade-machine/create

Cap Friendly has a calculator on cap cost of trades with or without salary retention.

https://www.capfriendly.com/trade-machine/create

Cap Friendly has a calculator on cap cost of trades with or without salary retention.
- winsix

I'm going to assume that this part of what you quoted ...

"Simplified - if Leafs have about $2M cap space at the TDL - a player or combination of players totaling about $9M AAV can be added to the roster without any subtraction."

...was not part of any quote.

That's not how it works.

Bottom line is they've got room to do what they need if they're willing to pay the price. They've got a full roster so it's player in player out at this point. Any goalie or D add would mean someone has to go (or the new add has to go through waivers). I think the obvious add is up front. They've got a need, bodies to move/throw away (Simmonds), and the $$ space.

I'm going to assume that this part of what you quoted ...

"Simplified - if Leafs have about $2M cap space at the TDL - a player or combination of players totaling about $9M AAV can be added to the roster without any subtraction."

...was not part of any quote.

That's not how it works.

Bottom line is they've got room to do what they need if they're willing to pay the price. They've got a full roster so it's player in player out at this point. Any goalie or D add would mean someone has to go (or the new add has to go through waivers). I think the obvious add is up front. They've got a need, bodies to move/throw away (Simmonds), and the $$ space.
- The Law

They do have the room. And unlike the Lightning in 2021 who were $18M over the cap entering the playoffs, there is no player on LTIR that will be ready to go first shift.

They do have the room. And unlike the Lightning in 2021 who were $18M over the cap entering the playoffs, there is no player on LTIR that will be ready to go first shift.
- winsix

The Muzzin thing is a total unknown but in theory if he got a good report in late Feb or early March then 4-6 weeks of working out and getting him in game shape could make if a candidate for a playoff addition. Who knows ...just a variable that Dubas will have in his back pocket and obviously he'll know better than everyone how that might play out.

Thinking out loud ...

Wonder if Perron would be open to a couple of playoff runs in Toronto if Detroit keeps fading? He's 4.75 for this year and next. He'd come cheaper then the big fish. Leafs could add him and he's a notorious playoff guy.

Also Bertuzzi? Is he dead? Pending UFA and Dubas liked him at one point.

The Muzzin thing is a total unknown but in theory if he got a good report in late Feb or early March then 4-6 weeks of working out and getting him in game shape could make if a candidate for a playoff addition. Who knows ...just a variable that Dubas will have in his back pocket and obviously he'll know better than everyone how that might play out.

Thinking out loud ...

Wonder if Perron would be open to a couple of playoff runs in Toronto if Detroit keeps fading? He's 4.75 for this year and next. He'd come cheaper then the big fish. Leafs could add him and he's a notorious playoff guy.

Also Bertuzzi? Is he dead? Pending UFA and Dubas liked him at one point.
- The Law

My doubts about Muzzin have everything to do with timing. The last regular season game this season is April 13. Re-evaluating at the end of February, meaning if everything is perfect he can start skating in early march - six weeks of training takes him to sometime in the first round. Hard to see him replacing anyone not having played much this season. So I have my doubts.

On the trade front, Detroit may be a trading partner, but at 34 Perron is overpriced IMO, Bertuzzi is interesting but there is a character issue there. Not many quality LW available out there on teams likely to be sellers. Its looking like Florida will be sellers and they have a couple of d-men that would be of interest. Gudas and Montour.

My doubts about Muzzin have everything to do with timing. The last regular season game this season is April 13. Re-evaluating at the end of February, meaning if everything is perfect he can start skating in early march - six weeks of training takes him to sometime in the first round. Hard to see him replacing anyone not having played much this season. So I have my doubts.

On the trade front, Detroit may be a trading partner, but at 34 Perron is overpriced IMO, Bertuzzi is interesting but there is a character issue there. Not many quality LW available out there on teams likely to be sellers. Its looking like Florida will be sellers and they have a couple of d-men that would be of interest. Gudas and Montour.
- winsix

Not sure whats up with Bertuzzi. Perron at 4.75 isn't too bad. Experience and just this year and next to pay for. Would work nicely for when Leafs need the space and line up pretty well for when Knies would be ready. Might mean they couldn't re-sign Bunting next summer though. Perron's playoff numbers are just so tasty. He's always been a warrior. Maybe an element that the Leafs need.

Sellers are starting to shape up ...Anaheim, SJ, Van, Chicago, Phoenix, and maybe StL out west ......Clb, Philly, Montreal, and maybe Detroit and Ottawa in the east.

Some top 6 options in that mix ...Horvat, Kane, RoR (if healthy) at the top ...after those I think you've got a bunch of maybe's ....Perron ...Domi ...Henrique ...JVR ...maybe some guys with more term (in a bigger deal) like Konecny or Laughton. Probably missing a few but I think he'll add someone from this 'list'.

The Muzzin thing is a total unknown but in theory if he got a good report in late Feb or early March then 4-6 weeks of working out and getting him in game shape could make if a candidate for a playoff addition. Who knows ...just a variable that Dubas will have in his back pocket and obviously he'll know better than everyone how that might play out.

Thinking out loud ...

Wonder if Perron would be open to a couple of playoff runs in Toronto if Detroit keeps fading? He's 4.75 for this year and next. He'd come cheaper then the big fish. Leafs could add him and he's a notorious playoff guy.

Also Bertuzzi? Is he dead? Pending UFA and Dubas liked him at one point.
- The Law

Muzzin replacement should be Jake McCabe
Only + player on Chicago

Not sure whats up with Bertuzzi. Perron at 4.75 isn't too bad. Experience and just this year and next to pay for. Would work nicely for when Leafs need the space and line up pretty well for when Knies would be ready. Might mean they couldn't re-sign Bunting next summer though. Perron's playoff numbers are just so tasty. He's always been a warrior. Maybe an element that the Leafs need.

Sellers are starting to shape up ...Anaheim, SJ, Van, Chicago, Phoenix, and maybe StL out west ......Clb, Philly, Montreal, and maybe Detroit and Ottawa in the east.

Some top 6 options in that mix ...Horvat, Kane, RoR (if healthy) at the top ...after those I think you've got a bunch of maybe's ....Perron ...Domi ...Henrique ...JVR ...maybe some guys with more term (in a bigger deal) like Konecny or Laughton. Probably missing a few but I think he'll add someone from this 'list'.
- The Law

Agree with all of this. Bunting will be hard to re-sign unless he takes a serious hair cut. He will be a $5M player to some team (not the Leafs IMO) He's heading to 60-65 points and is one of the leagues better poop disturbers.

On LW additions.

I've changed my mind about Barbashev. St. Louis is loaded at LW, depending on cost and availability he would be a good add. Kuzmenko on the Nucks is interesting. UFA after this year, if Nucks unable to sign (look at their cap structure they are really tight) he could be available. Meier is also interesting, elite LW, he's an RFA after this season, he could be moved, but SJ could easily re-sign and give him a big raise. Toews from Chicago as a C/LW would be interesting.

top six LW, a steady RHD and an insurance backup goalie in that order IMO.
- winsix

Or C and move Tavares to the wing

Muzzin replacement should be Jake McCabe
Only + player on Chicago
- mr.sir

LHD - need a RHD

Or C and move Tavares to the wing
- dmnted

Sure, but JT still one of the better faceoff guys around (Toews is better)

My doubts about Muzzin have everything to do with timing. The last regular season game this season is April 13. Re-evaluating at the end of February, meaning if everything is perfect he can start skating in early march - six weeks of training takes him to sometime in the first round. Hard to see him replacing anyone not having played much this season. So I have my doubts.

On the trade front, Detroit may be a trading partner, but at 34 Perron is overpriced IMO, Bertuzzi is interesting but there is a character issue there. Not many quality LW available out there on teams likely to be sellers. Its looking like Florida will be sellers and they have a couple of d-men that would be of interest. Gudas and Montour.
- winsix

Obviously the first question with Muzzin is about risk. Maybe some of the information from end of February has to do with where he’s at and the nature of any risk going forward given his concussion history.

I’ve seen speculation from docs who haven’t examined him that the injuries could be soft tissue - muscles and ligaments - injured as a result of the severe whiplash. The recovery is building up strength, again complicated by the previous concussions.

The timing of a return is tough. He’s been training in some fashion for a while. Remember, he his first game back last year was April 5th and he stepped right in.

I think it’s unlikely he returns but I don’t think we can right it off completely.

Obviously the first question with Muzzin is about risk. Maybe some of the information from end of February has to do with where he’s at and the nature of any risk going forward given his concussion history.

I’ve seen speculation from docs who haven’t examined him that the injuries could be soft tissue - muscles and ligaments - injured as a result of the severe whiplash. The recovery is building up strength, again complicated by the previous concussions.

The timing of a return is tough. He’s been training in some fashion for a while. Remember, he his first game back last year was April 5th and he stepped right in.

I think it’s unlikely he returns but I don’t think we can right it off completely.
- Canada Cup

From a purely strategic point of view, Leafs are likely going to be playing Tampa in round one. Does adding Muzzin (early say April 2 being extremely optimistic) push the needle for Leafs to overtake Boston for an easier first round opponent? Does not having Muzzin on April 2 jeopordize Leafs chances of finishing 2nd or 3rd? Adding Muzzin even to the playoff roster is optimistic in my view.