Kevin Francis: The Sens are in the playoff conversation to start 2023!!!!

A nice blog. Lots to think about.

Obviously, I always cheer for a Sens regardless who they are playing.

But, if teams like Buffalo, Detroit and Florida are playing against any team higher up in the wild card race (Washington, Pittsburgh, Islanders or Rangers)...who should I be cheering for and against?

On the other hand, do I cheer against all wild card contenders when they play against top seeded teams like Boston, Toronto, Carolina, New Jersey and maybe Tampa. I know I should cheer for all western teams when they play games against any Eastern team except for the Sens.

If the Sens remain in the hunt during the last week of the regular season, which team will be the other main contender for a spot? I think Buffalo.

I'll certainly admit I was doubtful that a 17-17-3 record would be feasible by this point in the season. The rate of improvement has been striking, and the notable additions from the summer have all paid major dividends. Even more impressive is the fact that the team's most significant roster strength hasn't fully materialized. Despite being in the top-quarter of the league in PP% and Shots/GP, the team's GA/GP is actually better than their GF/GP, and neither is even in the top-half of the league. This is in large part due to the fact that they lead the NHL in % of their GF that come from the PP (34.2%), with EDM being the only other team that's even close to that rate. It will be interesting to see what effect Norris returning will have, especially at even strength.

There's also a need to improve the consistency of their play within games. They're bottom-10 in the NHL in terms of GA in the 1st period, bottom-10 in the NHL in terms of goal differential in the 2nd period, and then top-10 in the NHL in goal differential in the 3rd period (most of which is actually due to an excellent GA record in the 3rd). They're also in the bottom-10 of the NHL in terms of winning games after scoring first, which is a bad recipe for success given that 9/10 bottom teams in that category are on the outside of the playoff picture. Starting their games with more focus, and limiting the damage of the 2nd period will go a long way to propel them above the .500 mark, and into a more legitimate playoff hunt.

Play has dramatically improved in December. I am not sure this squad has the consistency or D-corps to leapfrog teams like the Rangers, Pens, Islanders, or even Buffalo, to get into the playoffs, but would be really nice to see a solid late season push. Giroux and Debrincat have really stepped up their play and it’s hard to see a situation now where keeping Debrincat isn’t a priority.

This team always seems to round things out in the second half - however this year should be the last we see a significant overhaul in the lineup in the offseason, so perhaps this slow start is just about gelling chemistry with new linemates.

It could be the coaching, but if it is in fact chemistry, it'd be nice to see them crash through the gate next season to avoid perennial hyperbolic early season doomsday prophesizing. Watching Bedard, one has to imagine this would be the year to tank, if any - hovering just outside the playoffs and picking 12-16 is likely the worst possible outcome this season, so here's hoping this team can sustain this momentum and make the show.

This team always seems to round things out in the second half - however this year should be the last we see a significant overhaul in the lineup in the offseason, so perhaps this slow start is just about gelling chemistry with new linemates.

It could be the coaching, but if it is in fact chemistry, it'd be nice to see them crash through the gate next season to avoid perennial hyperbolic early season doomsday prophesizing. Watching Bedard, one has to imagine this would be the year to tank, if any - hovering just outside the playoffs and picking 12-16 is likely the worst possible outcome this season, so here's hoping this team can sustain this momentum and make the show.
- Bartacus

We never get lucky to pick 1st overall 😡

This team always seems to round things out in the second half - however this year should be the last we see a significant overhaul in the lineup in the offseason, so perhaps this slow start is just about gelling chemistry with new linemates.

It could be the coaching, but if it is in fact chemistry, it'd be nice to see them crash through the gate next season to avoid perennial hyperbolic early season doomsday prophesizing. Watching Bedard, one has to imagine this would be the year to tank, if any - hovering just outside the playoffs and picking 12-16 is likely the worst possible outcome this season, so here's hoping this team can sustain this momentum and make the show.
- Bartacus

If you listen to the TSN talking heads or many of the other podcasters are still pushing hope for the playoffs. I suppose there is some small comfort in self delusion.

They'll be picking 12-16 this summer and if they don't manage the cap properly and not overpay for one position but construct a strong, well balanced roster at every position then they'll be picking 12-16 or thereabouts again. The worst possible scenario.

If you listen to the TSN talking heads or many of the other podcasters are still pushing hope for the playoffs. I suppose there is some small comfort in self delusion.

They'll be picking 12-16 this summer and if they don't manage the cap properly and not overpay for one position but construct a strong, well balanced roster at every position then they'll be picking 12-16 or thereabouts again. The worst possible scenario.
- Whatisavailable

Is that what you really believe?

At some point a team needs to play to win. Learn to believe in themselves.

I'm okay with the Sens fighting hard and missing the playoffs by a few points. Let them come into next year hungry over having missed.

We never get lucky to pick 1st overall 😡
- sens4life1971

On the flip side, they could have traded the #3 and #5 picks in 2021 to get the 1st overall pick, and wound up with Lafreniere. Regardless, at this point it's not about adding core pieces from the draft... the cake is basically set. The main purpose of their prospect system is now to replenish talent as it becomes too expensive to maintain. Thomson, JBD, and Kleven given them some potential young options to flank the blue line depth, and possibly add to the top-4D, with the likes of Nordberg, Roger, and Donovan providing additional depth. Greig, Ostapchuk, and Boucher will give them young options to replace their supporting bottom-6 forwards, while Sogaard and Merilainen give them young G options. The biggest gap is their depth of top-6 potential forwards, and even so they still have Jarventie, Sokolov, and Pettersson with at least moderate 2nd line potential.

If they do draft in the mid-teens of the coming draft, I'd be surprised if they didn't just add depth to that scoring forward group - especially given that forwards are the overwhelming strength of the 2023 draft class.

On the flip side, they could have traded the #3 and #5 picks in 2021 to get the 1st overall pick, and wound up with Lafreniere. Regardless, at this point it's not about adding core pieces from the draft... the cake is basically set. The main purpose of their prospect system is now to replenish talent as it becomes too expensive to maintain. Thomson, JBD, and Kleven given them some potential young options to flank the blue line depth, and possibly add to the top-4D, with the likes of Nordberg, Roger, and Donovan providing additional depth. Greig, Ostapchuk, and Boucher will give them young options to replace their supporting bottom-6 forwards, while Sogaard and Merilainen give them young G options. The biggest gap is their depth of top-6 potential forwards, and even so they still have Jarventie, Sokolov, and Pettersson with at least moderate 2nd line potential.

If they do draft in the mid-teens of the coming draft, I'd be surprised if they didn't just add depth to that scoring forward group - especially given that forwards are the overwhelming strength of the 2023 draft class.
- khawk

A+

I believe in a top 6 of Stutzle, Tkachuk, Girouox, Norris, DeBrincat and Batherson plus a top 4 D of Chabot, Zub, Sanderson and an RHD addition.

Going forward there is nothing wrong with trying to build a contender around those players. We need to add character and depth. Pinto, Kastelec, Grieg, Boucher, Ostapchuck. Brannstrom JBD, Thomson, Kleven plus a few character vets sprinkled into the line up makes for a very competitive team in the long term.

I believe that in order to be a serious contender you need to have a good top 6, a good bottom 6, a good D core and a good goaltender. If you mismanage your cap as teams like TO have done you will be continually disappointed.

Tkachuk $8,205,714
Norris $7,950,000
Stutzle $8,350,000
Giroux $6,500,000
Batherson $4,975,000
Joseph $2,950,000
Chabot $8,000,000
Forsberg $2,750,000
Zub $4,600,000

DeBrincat $9,000,000 That's the QO
Sanderson $8,000,000 Is he going to be their best Dman or not?
Pinto $4,500,000 Very good #3 C that can move up the lineup

That's $75,780,714 and I didn't even count Zaitsev

Projected cap for 2023-2024 is $83,500,000

That leaves a little under $8,000,000 to sign a number 1 goalie, a top 4RD, 2 third pairing D, and 4 bottom 6 players that can contribute on the scoreboard.

If you hold off on signing Sanderson for a year that leaves you $15,000,000 to sign all those guys and you probably pay more for Sanderson when you do sign him. That's less than $2,000,000 for each of those 8 players you need to sign one of which is supposed to be a starting goalie and another a top 4RD.

That's what I mean when I say you just simply can not sign DeBrincat if you want to be a legitimate contender. You need balance throughout the roster or you will find yourself challenging for a wild card spot every year rather than challenging for the Cup every year.

Is that what you really believe?

At some point a team needs to play to win. Learn to believe in themselves.

I'm okay with the Sens fighting hard and missing the playoffs by a few points. Let them come into next year hungry over having missed.
- spatso

I believe that in order to be a serious contender you need to have a good top 6, a good bottom 6, a good D core and a good goaltender. If you mismanage your cap as teams like TO have done you will be continually disappointed.

Tkachuk $8,205,714
Norris $7,950,000
Stutzle $8,350,000
Giroux $6,500,000
Batherson $4,975,000
Joseph $2,950,000
Chabot $8,000,000
Forsberg $2,750,000
Zub $4,600,000

DeBrincat $9,000,000 That's the QO
Sanderson $8,000,000 Is he going to be their best Dman or not?
Pinto $4,500,000 Very good #3 C that can move up the lineup

That's $75,780,714 and I didn't even count Zaitsev

Projected cap for 2023-2024 is $83,500,000

That leaves a little under $8,000,000 to sign a number 1 goalie, a top 4RD, 2 third pairing D, and 4 bottom 6 players that can contribute on the scoreboard.

If you hold off on signing Sanderson for a year that leaves you $15,000,000 to sign all those guys and you probably pay more for Sanderson when you do sign him. That's less than $2,000,000 for each of those 8 players you need to sign one of which is supposed to be a starting goalie and another a top 4RD.

That's what I mean when I say you just simply can not sign DeBrincat if you want to be a legitimate contender. You need balance throughout the roster or you will find yourself challenging for a wild card spot every year rather than challenging for the Cup every year.

By the way for all you Cole Sillinger lovers out there. 2 goals and 4 assists for 6 points in 33 games this year.

The geniuses on the post game are talking about giving up guys like Norris and Batherson in order to hold onto DeBrincat. Ostapchuk and Greig and Kelly will replace those guys. Oh yeah forgot Lucchini and Motte. That's the road to the Cup!

What in the world are you DeBrincat lovers smoking?

Anyway a good game all around even though the puck was not cooperating and just bounced away from them all night creating a lot of missed chances.

The doom and gloom around the salary cap is getting tiresome. It really boils down to effectively managing the next 2yrs, after which the cap is expected to rise by $4M or more. Plus, within the context of the team's own salary cap they have just 1 year left of paying ~$5M in buyout/retained salary (i.e. dead money), they're actively trying to move out Zaitsev's $4.5M deal, and there will be just 2yrs left of paying Giroux $6.5M. Even if DeBrincat did get a $9M/yr extension, it only represents an incremental increase of $2.6M. The real key will be not to rush into high-$$$ RFA contracts for Sanderson, Pinto, and Bernard-Docker, and instead try to use shorter-term RFA bridge deals to limit their additional cap impact in that 2yr window.

The doom and gloom around the salary cap is getting tiresome. It really boils down to effectively managing the next 2yrs, after which the cap is expected to rise by $4M or more. Plus, within the context of the team's own salary cap they have just 1 year left of paying ~$5M in buyout/retained salary (i.e. dead money), they're actively trying to move out Zaitsev's $4.5M deal, and there will be just 2yrs left of paying Giroux $6.5M. Even if DeBrincat did get a $9M/yr extension, it only represents an incremental increase of $2.6M. The real key will be not to rush into high-$$$ RFA contracts for Sanderson, Pinto, and Bernard-Docker, and instead try to use shorter-term RFA bridge deals to limit their additional cap impact in that 2yr window.
- khawk

Why don't you put down actual numbers for the next year rather than just sweeping the problem under the carpet with abstract generalizations?

When actual numbers prove problematic to those glowing generalizations I can see how that would be viewed as tiresome by some.

Why don't you put down actual numbers for the next year rather than just sweeping the problem under the carpet with abstract generalizations?
- Whatisavailable

Bettman announced that accountants for the NHL and NHLPA have agreed on $6.1b. This is the shared revenue that is to be equally split between players and owners. The cap math is simple. $6.1b x .50 /32 teams = $95.3m.

$95.3m is where the cap would have been for next year if Covid had not blown such a huge hole in revenues and the escrow account. During Covid, players were paid full salary despite a significant drop in league revenues. So, we have a 17.2% escrow clawback from the players share of revenues.

See the great explanation of how escrow affects the cap.

https://www.pensionplanpu...ong-before-the-league-did

Bettman told us last month that the league was going to set the cap at $83.5m for next year. But, he also said the final cap was still up to the players. The players vote (June) and can bump the cap by up to 5% based on their right of escalation. If the players take full escalation the cap for next year will be $87.6m..

The NHL (Bettman) has forecast the cap at $83.5m, $87.6 and $92.0m over the next three years. If the players add full escalation each year, the actual cap numbers should be $87.6, $92.0m and $96.6m. But, I think the actual increases will come even faster and be more in line with the $6.1 b. of shared revenues announced by Bettman.

Bettman announced that accountants for the NHL and NHLPA have agreed on $6.1b. This is the shared revenue that is to be equally split between players and owners. The cap math is simple. $6.1b x .50 /32 teams = $95.3m.

$95.3m is where the cap would have been for next year if Covid had not blown such a huge hole in revenues and the escrow account. During Covid, players were paid full salary despite a significant drop in league revenues. So, we have a 17.2% escrow clawback from the players share of revenues.

See the great explanation of how escrow affects the cap.

https://www.pensionplanpu...ong-before-the-league-did

Bettman told us last month that the league was going to set the cap at $83.5m for next year. But, he also said the final cap was still up to the players. The players vote (June) and can bump the cap by up to 5% based on their right of escalation. If the players take full escalation the cap for next year will be $87.6m..

The NHL (Bettman) has forecast the cap at $83.5m, $87.6 and $92.0m over the next three years. If the players add full escalation each year, the actual cap numbers should be $87.6, $92.0m and $96.6m. But, I think the actual increases will come even faster and be more in line with the $6.1 b. of shared revenues announced by Bettman.
- spatso

The numbers I was referring to were the salary numbers you see these players you need to sign would be willing to accept and I'm talking this coming year.

In any event in that article you've referred me to this is what they say:
___________________________________________________________________

I’d worry this successfully optimistic revenue forecasting would lead the NHL back into bad habits, but the MOU has a corrective. Once the salary cap can be calculated by HRR again — so whenever that debt is paid off — the prior three years are used to form the projection, which should slow the rush to assume growth in advance. Until then, the cap will go up by only one or two million per year.

In other words — this problem is actually fixed in the only way it can be fixed — by having the revenue projection closer to reality like it was in 2010. As long as the players stay away from the temptation of the escalator (stairs are better cardio) they’ll be fine.

___________________________________________________________________

That's why the podcasters and the post game guys and the TSN guys are all saying the Sens are going to have to part with good players and a big salary if they want to sign DeBrincat.

I've spoken before about how these talking heads all just act as an echo chamber for some point of view that they've decided seems to be the safest point of view to have because they do this for a living and they have to keep coming up with safe stuff to talk about every day and their finely honed feelers seem to have picked up a particularly worrying signal. Jason York who works on the Coming In Hot podcast with Brent Wallace and Jason York said that anyone who now dares speak about trading DeBrincat are going to have a mob of Sens fans coming after them with pitchforks.

Now DeBrincat has suddenly become the kind of franchise player that many teams in the NHL would love to build their teams around. They speak not only of his exceptional scoring prowess but also of the fact that he is much more than a scoring titan but excels in many other aspects of the game like his playmaking and even his physical game, not being afraid to mix it up in the corners.

That last one made me laugh and shake my head in amazement because although he does try this guy can't win a puck battle to save his life. He just bounces right off of people not to mention how often he coughs up the puck not only in his own zone but all over the ice every game.

They ask the question when Norris returns who will play on the number 1 PP unit and all agree that it has to be DeBrincat because you can't have a 9 million dollar scoring machine who scores most of his goals on the PP not play on the first PP unit. So somehow your one dimensional number 1 C who only scored 35 goals last year needs to sit.

When they talk about the big salary that needs to go I wonder who that would be. It's not going to be Tkachuk, Stutzle or Chabot so they must be talking about moving out your 35 goal scoring 6'1" 200 lb number 1 C in favour of a 41 goal scoring 5'7" 165 lb second line LW.

These talking heads and, sadly, a large part of the fan base have lost their collective minds and I now fear they're about to commit franchise suicide and the cheers will be deafening. Why oh why do Canadian based teams all insist on sabotaging themselves?

I take some small solace from the fact that it now seems safe for them to say that it would be preferrable to have Nick Paul in the lineup as opposed to Joseph. Also Cole Sillinger has 2 goals and 4 assists in 33 games this year. Boucher is slowly becoming not such a bad word anymore.

I would call all the bottom 5-7 teams and try to help them tank by taking their best players

Why don't you put down actual numbers for the next year rather than just sweeping the problem under the carpet with abstract generalizations?

When actual numbers prove problematic to those glowing generalizations I can see how that would be viewed as tiresome by some.
- Whatisavailable

I have put down actual numbers on numerous occasions, I just don't make the same one-dimensional, self-interested assumptions that you do. There won't be enough money to do all things at once, but there are ways to stagger and layer contracts to help retain the key players they want to focus on... especially with the flexibility of multiple RFA contracts, and a relatively deep prospect pool. But you've been pushing a disapproval agenda regarding DeBrincat since the day that trade was made, and it's a very tiresome bias to keep reading about.

I have put down actual numbers on numerous occasions, I just don't make the same one-dimensional, self-interested assumptions that you do. There won't be enough money to do all things at once, but there are ways to stagger and layer contracts to help retain the key players they want to focus on... especially with the flexibility of multiple RFA contracts, and a relatively deep prospect pool. But you've been pushing a disapproval agenda regarding DeBrincat since the day that trade was made, and it's a very tiresome bias to keep reading about.
- khawk

I think you are correct. Sens have $17.175 free cap space for next year based on most recent NHL guidance. Summer negotiations should add upwards of $28m including DeBrincat $9.5m, Sanderson $8.5m, Pinto $5.0m and Talbot $5.0m.

So a rough shortfall of $11m. But this is not a crisis. They have salary savings in the range of $13m the following summer plus upwards of $8m being added through the player escalator option.

As this season progresses, I just can’t imagine a scenario where it is a smart idea to not try to lock up Debrincat. He’s a point per game player who has shown both playmaking and shooting ability. He is not such the one-dimensional player that there were concerns about. He will not be signing a new deal from an entry level contract. He already commands 6.4 mill on the cap. If he gets 8 mill per on an extension, that is around 1.6 mill more than now. The Austin Watson contract that will expire. If it is 9 mill per, 2.6ish. The Travis Hamoic contract that will expire. This is not as huge and crazy of a commitment as some would lead you to believe. Being a cap team is a weird and new thing for the Ottawa Senators and their fans. Maxmizing the cap is essential to be a contender. Obviously, this roster has some work to do to move money to accommodate new contracts and supporting players. That can’t be ignored and there will likely be some tough/controversial roster decisions as a result. However, that is something all teams contending an maxing the cap have to deal with.

As this season progresses, I just can’t imagine a scenario where it is a smart idea to not try to lock up Debrincat. He’s a point per game player who has shown both playmaking and shooting ability. He is not such the one-dimensional player that there were concerns about. He will not be signing a new deal from an entry level contract. He already commands 6.4 mill on the cap. If he gets 8 mill per on an extension, that is around 1.6 mill more than now. The Austin Watson contract that will expire. If it is 9 mill per, 2.6ish. The Travis Hamoic contract that will expire. This is not as huge and crazy of a commitment as some would lead you to believe. Being a cap team is a weird and new thing for the Ottawa Senators and their fans. Maxmizing the cap is essential to be a contender. Obviously, this roster has some work to do to move money to accommodate new contracts and supporting players. That can’t be ignored and there will likely be some tough/controversial roster decisions as a result. However, that is something all teams contending an maxing the cap have to deal with.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Obviously, there is strong support for the Sens signing DeBrincat on a long term deal. There are not many contending teams with enough cap space that can make him an offer. If Sens make him available they will get a very good return but it is a step backwards on the rebuild.

Should he want to stay, what is stopping DeBrincat from signing a deal that keeps him in line with the other top forwards? The whole $9M argument isn't set in stone and he can extend for a reasonable number.

Obviously, there is strong support for the Sens signing DeBrincat on a long term deal. There are not many contending teams with enough cap space that can make him an offer. If Sens make him available they will get a very good return but it is a step backwards on the rebuild.
- spatso

Sometimes I wonder if some people actually want to win or have just become accustomed to mediocrity and are just more interested in seeing prospect progression. I wonder if Debrincat was a homegrown prospect who worked his way through the Ottawa AHL and NHL system if the argument against him being extended would be different.

I love reading all the different reason to sign or not to sign Debrincat 🤙