Theo Fox: Net Gains A look at whether the Blackhawks should select a goalie in the 1st round of the 2021 NHL Draft.

Plus, thoughts on the expansion draft now knowing Alex Nylander is exempt from exposure.

Morning Theo, or evening I guess if you're still on the island.

Any Toews news yet

I agree 100% with your protected list.

If Toews is exempt, I could see the Hawks swinging a deal that acquires another player that they would exempt with a team that actually has too many good players to protect.

If Zadorov wants $5 mil he should be moved or at least not protected.

The Kraken will pretty much have to take deHaan or Strome if they are not moved before the draft for picks or exempt prospects. I doubt they take Kampf, Subban or Connolly.

"* Why protect Strome? While he may be on the way out, at least get something in return for him rather than lose him for nothing."

The easy answer is - is that if it is pretty obvious that he's on the way out to non-GM's that guys that actually get paid to know that stuff and take it into account when bargaining will as well. Dubious of any useful return because of that.

Because of that, using that to the max advantage might involve exposing Strome in the expansion draft ... ok, technically it might not as well... personally for me - using him at winger is a waste - a little like using a SS at 1B.

Sure if you can move him for something useful, go for it ... but I don't know that banking on anything is actually going to be worth the trouble. After all, according to him (I think) - he thinks he's proved himself .... I guess as a winger that essentially takes faceoffs when the centre gets tossed.

Thanks Theo - I was just thinking, of the 4 1st round goaltenders still playing, 2 of them will not get past this round. Is that on them, or the team as a whole? I still think it is a waste for the Blackhawks to use the 11th pick on a goaltender THIS DRAFT. The reason I say that is I don't think the team has enough top end talent yet to benefit from having a superstar goaltender on the team. Look at Price, how many years has it taken Montreal to finally be a SC contender? Now a team like Edmonton that has some top end players would be wise to draft one of the top goalies this draft because the impact will be much greater for them. Just my .02.

Morning Theo, or evening I guess if you're still on the island.

Any Toews news yet

The latest is that he has an STD, I think I read that on the Habs blog. Red font.

Morning Theo, or evening I guess if you're still on the island.

Any Toews news yet
- vabeachbear

Maybe what is ailing him is called a "WIFE"?

Depending on whether his status is made known before the expansion draft, Toews could be rendered exempt similar to Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw due to their injury statuses.
If Toews is exempt, then David Kampf or Vincent Hinostroza could be a candidate to protect instead or protect both of them then expose Gaudette.

Hinostroza is an UFA. No need to protect him. Seattle will have a window to negotiate with free agents between when the protected list is submitted and the expansion draft. Doubt if Hino wants to leave the Chicagoland area and unless he's blown away by a Seattle offer (why would they do that?), he's not going anywhere.

If Toews rendered exempt by the league due to his health situation, explore getting another forward from a team that has excess of forwards to protect. Said team would not want to lose that player for nothing.

Thanks Theo - I was just thinking, of the 4 1st round goaltenders still playing, 2 of them will not get past this round. Is that on them, or the team as a whole? I still think it is a waste for the Blackhawks to use the 11th pick on a goaltender THIS DRAFT. The reason I say that is I don't think the team has enough top end talent yet to benefit from having a superstar goaltender on the team. Look at Price, how many years has it taken Montreal to finally be a SC contender? Now a team like Edmonton that has some top end players would be wise to draft one of the top goalies this draft because the impact will be much greater for them. Just my .02.
- powerenforcer

Yeah, not ready for a 1st-round goalie pick - even if that goalie has potential Vezina consideration in his future.

Yeah, not ready yet to go after a young future #1 impact center if the price is right - better stick to drafting more potential depth forwards.

Yeah, not ready to sign or trade for a young future #1 impact defenseman if the price is right - better to keep drafting probably 2nd pairing blue liners at best.

Ya know, the top players are hard to find - very difficult when you’re drafting out of the top-10. If they become available - AND they can afford the price - I think the time to try to get them is NOW.

Or all of the depth players who need a top-line, top-pairing skater to lead them out of mediocrity will be ready to fill their roles, but the impact players they need won’t be available.

If someone who would be part of the Cup runs in three years or so is available now - AND, again, at an affordable price - don’t hold back - go after them. It’s really hard to get them.

Depending on whether his status is made known before the expansion draft, Toews could be rendered exempt similar to Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw due to their injury statuses.
If Toews is exempt, then David Kampf or Vincent Hinostroza could be a candidate to protect instead or protect both of them then expose Gaudette.

Hinostroza is an UFA. No need to protect him. Seattle will have a window to negotiate with free agents between when the protected list is submitted and the expansion draft. Doubt if Hino wants to leave the Chicagoland area and unless he's blown away by a Seattle offer (why would they do that?), he's not going anywhere.

If Toews rendered exempt by the league due to his health situation, explore getting another forward from a team that has excess of forwards to protect. Said team would not want to lose that player for nothing.

Powerenforcer

As Bowman said, it is one player. All the GM's have seen how Vegas took advantage of the if you want me to select this one player, have I got a lopsided deal for you. I highly doubt you see that this time, because the player(s) you gave up to keep that one player (e.g. Smith, Marsecheault, Tuch, Haula, Theodore, even Fleury came with a second round pick) would most likely have been a better asset than the player they ended up keeping.

Are the Hawks likely to pick a goalie in the 1st or 2nd rounds after taking one in the 2nd last year? Or have they soured on him already?

Yeah, not ready for a 1st-round goalie pick - even if that goalie has potential Vezina consideration in his future.

Yeah, not ready yet to go after a young future #1 impact center if the price is right - better stick to drafting more potential depth forwards.

Yeah, not ready to sign or trade for a young future #1 impact defenseman if the price is right - better to keep drafting probably 2nd pairing blue liners at best.

Ya know, the top players are hard to find - very difficult when you’re drafting out of the top-10. If they become available - AND they can afford the price - I think the time to try to get them is NOW.

Or all of the depth players who need a top-line, top-pairing skater to lead them out of mediocrity will be ready to fill their roles, but the impact players they need won’t be available.

If someone who would be part of the Cup runs in three years or so is available now - AND, again, at an affordable price - don’t hold back - go after them. It’s really hard to get them.
- StLBravesFan

Excellent post, Sage. To me, you get difference makers when you can because getting them is not like going to 7-11 for a 30 pack of Hamm's.

Depending on whether his status is made known before the expansion draft, Toews could be rendered exempt similar to Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw due to their injury statuses.
If Toews is exempt, then David Kampf or Vincent Hinostroza could be a candidate to protect instead or protect both of them then expose Gaudette.

Hinostroza is an UFA. No need to protect him. Seattle will have a window to negotiate with free agents between when the protected list is submitted and the expansion draft. Doubt if Hino wants to leave the Chicagoland area and unless he's blown away by a Seattle offer (why would they do that?), he's not going anywhere.

If Toews rendered exempt by the league due to his health situation, explore getting another forward from a team that has excess of forwards to protect. Said team would not want to lose that player for nothing.

Powerenforcer

As Bowman said, it is one player. All the GM's have seen how Vegas took advantage of the if you want me to select this one player, have I got a lopsided deal for you. I highly doubt you see that this time, because the player(s) you gave up to keep that one player (e.g. Smith, Marsecheault, Tuch, Haula, Theodore, even Fleury came with a second round pick) would most likely have been a better asset than the player they ended up keeping.
- LAHawk

Yep, I highly doubt that we will miss whomever we lose to the Kraken. No need to entice them with an asset so they don’t take a specific player, let them take whomever they want from the unprotected list and rock on. I’m also thinking that Stan will make a trade or two before the expansion draft. It will be an interesting summer in Hawkland.

Yeah, not ready for a 1st-round goalie pick - even if that goalie has potential Vezina consideration in his future.

Yeah, not ready yet to go after a young future #1 impact center if the price is right - better stick to drafting more potential depth forwards.

Yeah, not ready to sign or trade for a young future #1 impact defenseman if the price is right - better to keep drafting probably 2nd pairing blue liners at best.

Ya know, the top players are hard to find - very difficult when you’re drafting out of the top-10. If they become available - AND they can afford the price - I think the time to try to get them is NOW.

Or all of the depth players who need a top-line, top-pairing skater to lead them out of mediocrity will be ready to fill their roles, but the impact players they need won’t be available.

If someone who would be part of the Cup runs in three years or so is available now - AND, again, at an affordable price - don’t hold back - go after them. It’s really hard to get them.
- StLBravesFan

I think the sticking point obviously comes down to the player you are talking about and the price you have to pay. In a vacuum, I honestly would not have a problem getting Eichel. When you consider that he is already locked into a $10M/yr contract, and has an unsure future regarding his health, and it would require substantial assets to acquire him, that puts the kibosh on it for me.

Then you look at D. I think Jones is a really good player, but not worth multiple firsts and a prospect (for example). I also don't think Hamilton would be worth the expense. If you are saying someone like Makar were available for whatever "reasonable" means, then sure.

The devil is in the details. Otherwise you have a current or future impact center and/or defenseman, but no depth behind them. Rob Peter to pay Paul.

Excellent post, Sage. To me, you get difference makers when you can because getting them is not like going to 7-11 for a 30 pack of Hamm's.
- mohel

Got a jones for Hamm's lately, huh? Second or third reference in a day.

I agree you have to go after talent when available (likely why we hear that Chicago is interested in all of these bigger names). You also have to be smart about what you give up to get them (especially when there is a flat cap for the next few years.

I don't much see any reason to fear taking a goalie at #11.

If that is the best player, do it.


I don't see using a second round pick at a second tier of goalies.

Let's not treat Cossa like he is sticking around into the second either.
If he is slipping (SLIPPING? He may very well go first goalie in the class or close.) int the mid ranges of the first, there will be plenty of teams trying to trade to select him.

Forget what you read elsewhere:
There is a top 18 and both goalies are in it.

The idea that the NHL team scouting staffs are agreed on the ACTUAL players who they would take at one, two, three...is a fact this go around.
Since you are going to wait for all these kids and the fact that you can find chinks in each one's armor, means we may think their is a top tier of one, and second tier of more favorables, and third and fourth tier in that 18, but don't try and tell yourself the entire league has got their NHL future upside all sorted out.

Saying one more time: I think we will be surprised who gets picked in the top ten and who is still there, and taking the best guy might work out.

"* Why protect Strome? While he may be on the way out, at least get something in return for him rather than lose him for nothing."

The easy answer is - is that if it is pretty obvious that he's on the way out to non-GM's that guys that actually get paid to know that stuff and take it into account when bargaining will as well. Dubious of any useful return because of that.

Because of that, using that to the max advantage might involve exposing Strome in the expansion draft ... ok, technically it might not as well... personally for me - using him at winger is a waste - a little like using a SS at 1B.

Sure if you can move him for something useful, go for it ... but I don't know that banking on anything is actually going to be worth the trouble. After all, according to him (I think) - he thinks he's proved himself .... I guess as a winger that essentially takes faceoffs when the centre gets tossed.
- SC116

Every team has players on the way out it works both ways. Perhaps Strome can be leveraged with a player and somebody else's bad contract? At the end of the day he is a player with warts but a Center who puts up points

Got a jones for Hamm's lately, huh? Second or third reference in a day.

I agree you have to go after talent when available (likely why we hear that Chicago is interested in all of these bigger names). You also have to be smart about what you give up to get them (especially when there is a flat cap for the next few years.
- Chunk

I agree with your whole post.

Hamm's is my favorite in the cheap, regular beer category. $13 for 30.

I have nothing against drafting a goalie in the 1st round if you have a lot of other prospects and no goalie prospects. But, they just drafted Drew Commesso in the 2nd round last year. Drafting a 1st round goalie essentially makes that pick a waste. Also, the Hawks have some greater needs as they really do not have a lot of high end forward prospects despite what Hawks fan sites will suggest.

End of an era for a second time:

https://twitter.com/NHLBl.../1407700124864761862?s=20

I'll miss him but for the past 5 years or so entire swaths of play by play were missed on vaguely related stories.

Was Wideman in the booth for that brief period Foley was gone?

you have 19 year old Commerso and 21 year old Arvid who out performed wallstadt. (3 years older) I would prefer to take one of the top 9 skaters if one falls to 11. or if they are just super high on the 2nd tier group of 6-8, sullinger, lysell, raty, Lucious, corrnato, lambos Scheykin, Or drop down a bit and have someone over pay to get one of the goalies at 11.

if Teows is exempt or waves I would trade for one of the best soon to be exposed forwards. I also think ZAD and Strome have more value after EXP draft. if teams trade for them now and do not send back someone they were going to protect that means they would have to move someone from the protected list to the exposed. im fine keeping stillman but ZAD would have way more trade value IMO. need to maximize assets.

End of an era for a second time:

https://twitter.com/NHLBl.../1407700124864761862?s=20

I'll miss him but for the past 5 years or so entire swaths of play by play were missed on vaguely related stories.

Was Wideman in the booth for that brief period Foley was gone?
- Popsghostly

The 2002 Chicagoland Sports Hall of Fame inductee and multi-time Emmy-award winner will call a portion of the upcoming schedule and use the year to pass the torch to his successor. The search for the next Blackhawks' play-by-play broadcaster is currently underway and an update will be provided at the appropriate time.

It sounds like they are going to sprinkle in the new guy as the season progresses.

I don't much see any reason to fear taking a goalie at #11.

If that is the best player, do it.


I don't see using a second round pick at a second tier of goalies.

Let's not treat Cossa like he is sticking around into the second either.
If he is slipping (SLIPPING? He may very well go first goalie in the class or close.) int the mid ranges of the first, there will be plenty of teams trying to trade to select him.

Forget what you read elsewhere:
There is a top 18 and both goalies are in it.

The idea that the NHL team scouting staffs are agreed on the ACTUAL players who they would take at one, two, three...is a fact this go around.
Since you are going to wait for all these kids and the fact that you can find chinks in each one's armor, means we may think their is a top tier of one, and second tier of more favorables, and third and fourth tier in that 18, but don't try and tell yourself the entire league has got their NHL future upside all sorted out.

Saying one more time: I think we will be surprised who gets picked in the top ten and who is still there, and taking the best guy might work out.
- wiz1901

Hey Wiz, are Wallstedt or Cossa committed to playing anywhere next year, or is that still up in the air. There have been hints that Power is leaning toward going back to Michigan next year, and I was wondering if these two (or any of the other top 15) are planning to do the same.

End of an era for a second time:

https://twitter.com/NHLBl.../1407700124864761862?s=20

I'll miss him but for the past 5 years or so entire swaths of play by play were missed on vaguely related stories.

Was Wideman in the booth for that brief period Foley was gone?
- Popsghostly

No, Dan Kelly. I know most Hawk fans only know Foley, but he doesn't hold a candle to Lloyd Petit, either on TV, or especially on radio,

No, Dan Kelly. I know most Hawk fans only know Foley, but he doesn't hold a candle to Lloyd Petit, either on TV, or especially on radio,
- LAHawk

Dan Kelly - the wasted years. He was terrible.