Jeremy Laura: Mo Swagger for Detroit’s top D prospect

I really enjoy reading your posts. Cannot wait for next year. I know this sounds crazy but I believe with the young guys potential coming to play such as Bergren and Seider and the removal of some dead weight (fippulia).with some key free agent signing such as a good centre, we might just surprise.

I really enjoy reading your posts. Cannot wait for next year. I know this sounds crazy but I believe with the young guys potential coming to play such as Bergren and Seider and the removal of some dead weight (fippulia).with some key free agent signing such as a good centre, we might just surprise.
- saintdog44

Thanks for that! The fact that Detroit finished ahead of a few teams this year was a good sign. Turning over the roster quickly is going to pay dividends. I think both Detroit and Grand Rapids could have some good stretches.

I really enjoy reading your posts. Cannot wait for next year. I know this sounds crazy but I believe with the young guys potential coming to play such as Bergren and Seider and the removal of some dead weight (fippulia).with some key free agent signing such as a good centre, we might just surprise.
- saintdog44

Signing a good centre? Like who? It's rare for a top line center to be traded and even more rare for one to hit UFA, unless they are washed up. Larkin is not a 1C, certainly not an elite one. Veleno's ceiling isn't that high. We don't have a single prospect with 1C potential. Lots of wingers. Lots of d-men. But a total wasteland at center. This has to be the draft focus this year. I could see them going with Kent Johnson at 6 and maybe using a 2nd to move the Caps pick up a few spots and take a flier on Raty.

Thank you for your work.
Enjoy your blog!

No matter the outcome of the draft(s), next season will be better than last.

Maybe Yzerman can make deal with Seattle. I think having more draft picks is better than having a top pick for an expansion team.

Signing a good centre? Like who? It's rare for a top line center to be traded and even more rare for one to hit UFA, unless they are washed up. Larkin is not a 1C, certainly not an elite one. Veleno's ceiling isn't that high. We don't have a single prospect with 1C potential. Lots of wingers. Lots of d-men. But a total wasteland at center. This has to be the draft focus this year. I could see them going with Kent Johnson at 6 and maybe using a 2nd to move the Caps pick up a few spots and take a flier on Raty.
- Kooleus

Pettersson offer sheet I think would be a defensible (albeit very high risk) option.

Pettersson offer sheet I think would be a defensible (albeit very high risk) option.
- Sven22

The last successful offer sheet was 14 years ago. Also zero chance that Yzerman parts with a bunch of 1sts for two reasons:
1) Several of these will likely be in the lottery
2) Maybe you do this for a top 5 talent, but not for Pettersson.

Next.

Pettersson offer sheet I think would be a defensible (albeit very high risk) option.
- Sven22

For the right term I’d take a Tatar - Danault - Zadina line

The last successful offer sheet was 14 years ago. Also zero chance that Yzerman parts with a bunch of 1sts for two reasons:
1) Several of these will likely be in the lottery
2) Maybe you do this for a top 5 talent, but not for Pettersson.

Next.
- Kooleus

Not saying it's likely or even that I agree with it necessarily. You'd be taking a huge gamble on:

- Pettersson being consistently elite (I think he's better than you give him credit for, potentially a top 10 or even top 5 talent, but I concede the jury is still very much out).

- Significant, immediate progress on the rebuild (so those four first rounders are less likely to be near the top of the draft).

Vancouver would also need to not match, though with their cap situation and clown shoes GM I imagine they might consider taking the picks.

I stand by my original assertion of "defensible," though I think you're correct that it will almost certainly not happen.

Not saying it's likely or even that I agree with it necessarily. You'd be taking a huge gamble on:

- Pettersson being consistently elite (I think he's better than you give him credit for, potentially a top 10 or even top 5 talent, but I concede the jury is still very much out).

- Significant, immediate progress on the rebuild (so those four first rounders are less likely to be near the top of the draft).

Vancouver would also need to not match, though with their cap situation and clown shoes GM I imagine they might consider taking the picks.

I stand by my original assertion of "defensible," though I think you're correct that it will almost certainly not happen.
- Sven22

Interesting conundrum we have. Kool is correct: We're hurting at 1C, but also 1G. Pettersen is an interesting proposition. Pretty good player, but again, Kool hits some sticking points (draft picks relating to Offer Sheets, etc...). Regardless of the amount of time it's been since the last successful sheet, it could be a product of weaponized Cap Space. Very true that 1Cs don't normally hit the UFA market, and those that do demand the highest compensation. If a team such as Detroit pings them for interest, the player will jack up the price because they know 2 things: Detroit hurts at C; and they have cap space. So, some tough decisions that need to be made about how to get after the C & G issues we have. One would wonder what's on the table for consideration; no one knows and all we can do is trust and hope....be optimistic, and grateful that the current GM has much better vision than the last. It's going to take some more time, but we're already improving.....

If Petro decides against signing with Detroit, we're in rough shape for Gs in the pipeline. I did read that Filip Lindberg may refuse to sign with the Wild and test UFA this summer. Stats on him are decent, but a very small sampling "In 50 total games for UMass, Lindberg posted a 29-10-6 record, a .937 save percentage, and a 1.58 goals-against average." Could take a flyer on him, and there are some pretty decent Gs in the draft this year. The thing is, Detroit's in a situation where we need help, have cap space, and have a good amount of picks in the draft. The Captain will do what he does best (and just like every other GM....) and try to pick magic to fill the gaps.

Not saying it's likely or even that I agree with it necessarily. You'd be taking a huge gamble on:

- Pettersson being consistently elite (I think he's better than you give him credit for, potentially a top 10 or even top 5 talent, but I concede the jury is still very much out).

- Significant, immediate progress on the rebuild (so those four first rounders are less likely to be near the top of the draft).

Vancouver would also need to not match, though with their cap situation and clown shoes GM I imagine they might consider taking the picks.

I stand by my original assertion of "defensible," though I think you're correct that it will almost certainly not happen.
- Sven22

Pettersson is not close to being a top 5-10 talent. Sorry about that. As opponents became more aware of his tendencies, he's been held to the perimeter. His shooting percentage has declined for 3 straight years as he's been forced to take lower-percentage shots.

Adding Pettersson to this roster is not enough to take us into a playoff spot so several of these 1sts are going to be in the lottery. Zero chance Yzerman does something this stupid. If you don't want to draft and patiently wait to develop a 1C then you explore a trade that doesn't involve a bunch of 1sts.

Pettersson is not close to being a top 5-10 talent. Sorry about that. As opponents became more aware of his tendencies, he's been held to the perimeter. His shooting percentage has declined for 3 straight years as he's been forced to take lower-percentage shots.

Adding Pettersson to this roster is not enough to take us into a playoff spot so several of these 1sts are going to be in the lottery. Zero chance Yzerman does something this stupid. If you don't want to draft and patiently wait to develop a 1C then you explore a trade that doesn't involve a bunch of 1sts.
- Kooleus

Petterssons 5v5 iHDCF60 has increased every season…

Pettersson is not close to being a top 5-10 talent. Sorry about that. As opponents became more aware of his tendencies, he's been held to the perimeter. His shooting percentage has declined for 3 straight years as he's been forced to take lower-percentage shots.

Adding Pettersson to this roster is not enough to take us into a playoff spot so several of these 1sts are going to be in the lottery. Zero chance Yzerman does something this stupid. If you don't want to draft and patiently wait to develop a 1C then you explore a trade that doesn't involve a bunch of 1sts.
- Kooleus

Agree that adding Pettersson doesn't get us into a playoff spot.

Disagree that Pettersson is not elite.

Detroit is a long way from contending but there's a very strong chance that over the next four years 6th, 9th, 11th ish overall is about the best we can expect from our draft placement. Yeah if it turns out they win a lottery and lose out on 1st or 2nd overall that's a gut punch, but weigh that against the fact that the odds are against us picking in the top five going forward (unless Yzerman decides to tear it down again), and we're probably not going to get even one player as good as Pettersson is now with any of those first-rounders, and very unlikely to get more than one. So why not just get him? He's 22.

To be clear, I'm playing devil's advocate here. I think ultimately I agree with you to not take the risk. But I wouldn't call it stupid either. Even with Pettersson on board Detroit would still have a ton of cap space and roster flexibility, too, to think about adding another high-end forward or defender. Hamilton, for example.

I've been saying that this is going to be a very interesting draft. Detroit has some luxuries not all teams have, which is 23 full-time scouts, 18 of them are amateur scouts. If you added their advisors, it's really 26 scouts. Look at Buffalo, they have 10 total. Anaheim & Columbus have 15. Just in amateur scouts, Detroit has nearly double what Buffalo has in all scouts and more than what most teams have in combined pro and amateur scouts. In the early days of Yzerman's time with TB, they too had a small scouting staff that he fought to build up, but it's still smaller than Detroit's staff. That's why I don't completely fault him on some of his misses in TB.

It's fun to speculate and question what they are doing, but the reality is, compared to most teams, Detroit has a huge scouting staff who is watching hundreds of hours of video of the players we speculate on. They know their tendencies, they know their floors and ceilings, and most importantly, they are projecting out line-ups years from now and determining how each pick might fit into that mix. We have no choice but to trust that they have the right assets in place to evaluate talent, because none of us knows anywhere near as much about these players as they do. In a draft where so many players either haven't played, or saw limited action, or on different ice, or playing with older players, the teams with the luxury of very large amateur scouting staff will find some players who will surprise us all.

Pettersson is not close to being a top 5-10 talent. Sorry about that. As opponents became more aware of his tendencies, he's been held to the perimeter. His shooting percentage has declined for 3 straight years as he's been forced to take lower-percentage shots.

Adding Pettersson to this roster is not enough to take us into a playoff spot so several of these 1sts are going to be in the lottery. Zero chance Yzerman does something this stupid. If you don't want to draft and patiently wait to develop a 1C then you explore a trade that doesn't involve a bunch of 1sts.
- Kooleus

Also, the bolded argument here is extremely weak and I think you're smart enough to know that.

Pettersson shot 15.9 percent this year in limited action. The sample size is already low enough not to want to read too much into it, but even if we take that at face value it's still elite sniper territory. If he's shooting 16% while being "held to the perimeter" (very skeptical about that, but I'll humor you) that's pretty friggin' impressive.

Pettersson's averaging 17.6 percent in his career, which is sixth-best overall over the last three years for players with at least 350 shots. Even just using his "worst" season (15.9 percent) he'd still be 15th on the list. And even if you assume his "true talent" once opponents "figure him out" is closer to, say, 14 or 15 percent he is still a high-end player, considering he also generates chances for himself and his teammates at high rates and is underrated defensively.

Agree that adding Pettersson doesn't get us into a playoff spot.

Disagree that Pettersson is not elite.

Detroit is a long way from contending but there's a very strong chance that over the next four years 6th, 9th, 11th ish overall is about the best we can expect from our draft placement. Yeah if it turns out they win a lottery and lose out on 1st or 2nd overall that's a gut punch, but weigh that against the fact that the odds are against us picking in the top five going forward (unless Yzerman decides to tear it down again), and we're probably not going to get even one player as good as Pettersson is now with any of those first-rounders, and very unlikely to get more than one. So why not just get him? He's 22.

To be clear, I'm playing devil's advocate here. I think ultimately I agree with you to not take the risk. But I wouldn't call it stupid either. Even with Pettersson on board Detroit would still have a ton of cap space and roster flexibility, too, to think about adding another high-end forward or defender. Hamilton, for example.
- Sven22

OK. So let's add Pettersson and assume it costs four 1sts. Now let's promote Seider. More growth from some of our young guys. Hey maybe instead of drafting 6th, we end up (as you said) picking 9th, 11th, 15th, 18th. Fair enough right?

Let's look at the type of recent talent selected between 9-18...

Dougie Hamilton
Forsberg
Teravainen
Vasilevsky
Horvat
Larkin
Rantanen
Barzal
Kyle Connor
Chabot
Sergachev
Chychrun
Necas
Suzuki

That's just a sample from 2011-17. Now are you going to hit on all 4 of those picks? Of course not. But if you hit on 2, or maybe even 3 of these picks...that's worth far more than Elias Pettersson. Of course, we're assuming the team improves, and assuming that none of those picks get a lucky bounce and end up being 1st or 2nd overall. Don't forget the new rule limiting the number of times a team can win a lottery. So as time goes on, some of the teams "below" you, are inelligible to win the lottery, so a pick at #9 or #11 likely has better odds of winning the lottery than they currently do.

The good news is Yzerman is smart enough to realize this and 100% won't give away four 1sts for someone like Pettersson. So I'm not worried one bit. But carry on...

OK. So let's add Pettersson and assume it costs four 1sts. Now let's promote Seider. More growth from some of our young guys. Hey maybe instead of drafting 6th, we end up (as you said) picking 9th, 11th, 15th, 18th. Fair enough right?

Let's look at the type of recent talent selected between 9-18...

Dougie Hamilton
Forsberg
Teravainen
Vasilevsky
Horvat
Larkin
Rantanen
Barzal
Kyle Connor
Chabot
Sergachev
Chychrun
Necas
Suzuki

That's just a sample from 2011-17. Now are you going to hit on all 4 of those picks? Of course not. But if you hit on 2, or maybe even 3 of these picks...that's worth far more than Elias Pettersson. Of course, we're assuming the team improves, and assuming that none of those picks get a lucky bounce and end up being 1st or 2nd overall. Don't forget the new rule limiting the number of times a team can win a lottery. So as time goes on, some of the teams "below" you, are inelligible to win the lottery, so a pick at #9 or #11 likely has better odds of winning the lottery than they currently do.

The good news is Yzerman is smart enough to realize this and 100% won't give away four 1sts for someone like Pettersson. So I'm not worried one bit. But carry on...
- Kooleus

So out of 80 picks here maybe 1 is better than Pettersson. Maybe 15 are top tier players. You just made Svens case stronger imo.

OK. So let's add Pettersson and assume it costs four 1sts. Now let's promote Seider. More growth from some of our young guys. Hey maybe instead of drafting 6th, we end up (as you said) picking 9th, 11th, 15th, 18th. Fair enough right?


That's just a sample from 2011-17. Now are you going to hit on all 4 of those picks? Of course not. But if you hit on 2, or maybe even 3 of these picks...that's worth far more than Elias Pettersson. Of course, we're assuming the team improves, and assuming that none of those picks get a lucky bounce and end up being 1st or 2nd overall. Don't forget the new rule limiting the number of times a team can win a lottery. So as time goes on, some of the teams "below" you, are inelligible to win the lottery, so a pick at #9 or #11 likely has better odds of winning the lottery than they currently do.

The good news is Yzerman is smart enough to realize this and 100% won't give away four 1sts for someone like Pettersson. So I'm not worried one bit. But carry on...
- Kooleus

Good points. I'm not a fan of the requirements surrounding Offer Sheets, but the seriousness of what's being done by the offering team definitely has a profound impact of the team of the offered player. Looking at the names & 4 1sts that could be missed out on for a rebuilding team is pretty hefty. But, like Jeremy is trying to do, it generates some good discussion........and all anyone can do is offer opinions, not gospel/or mandates. Opinions & thoughts are just that.....and everyone has them.

The biggest disagreement here seems to be whether or not you think Elias Pettersson is “could be the best player on a legit contender” good. I think there’s decent evidence to suggest that the answer is yes, though reasonable minds may disagree.

If you don’t think Pettersson is that good, then obviously you would (and should) be strongly against an offer sheet.

If you do think he’s that good, then it’s a more interesting question, without an easy answer either way.

So out of 80 picks here maybe 1 is better than Pettersson. Maybe 15 are top tier players. You just made Svens case stronger imo.
- Feds91Stammer

Maybe one is better? Are you insane?

Vasilevsky
Rantanen
Barzal
Kyle Connor
Chabot
Sergachev

So here's 6 of those players listed, now 1 is a goalie, but just so happens to be the best goalie in the world currently. 2 are d men, young d men at that. That leaves 3 forwards who I would say are just as good, if not better than Petterson. And these were just a few he named. Kool is right, unless your getting McJesus, MacKinnon, or a select few others, 4 firsts aren't worth it. Keep the picks and be patient.

Maybe one is better? Are you insane?

Vasilevsky
Rantanen
Barzal
Kyle Connor
Chabot
Sergachev

So here's 6 of those players listed, now 1 is a goalie, but just so happens to be the best goalie in the world currently. 2 are d men, young d men at that. That leaves 3 forwards who I would say are just as good, if not better than Petterson. And these were just a few he named. Kool is right, unless your getting McJesus, MacKinnon, or a select few others, 4 firsts aren't worth it. Keep the picks and be patient.
- mplackitt

Pettersson is easily better than Barzal, Connor, Chabot, and Sergachev.

Pettersson also outscores Rantanen at 5v5.

Vasy is such a rare case and goalies tend to be inconsistent over their careers so I’m kinda meh on that one.

The biggest disagreement here seems to be whether or not you think Elias Pettersson is “could be the best player on a legit contender” good. I think there’s decent evidence to suggest that the answer is yes, though reasonable minds may disagree.

If you don’t think Pettersson is that good, then obviously you would (and should) be strongly against an offer sheet.

If you do think he’s that good, then it’s a more interesting question, without an easy answer either way.
- Sven22

He’s easily a top 20 center and only 22. Not sure why people aren’t high on him.

Signing a good centre? Like who? It's rare for a top line center to be traded and even more rare for one to hit UFA, unless they are washed up. Larkin is not a 1C, certainly not an elite one. Veleno's ceiling isn't that high. We don't have a single prospect with 1C potential. Lots of wingers. Lots of d-men. But a total wasteland at center. This has to be the draft focus this year. I could see them going with Kent Johnson at 6 and maybe using a 2nd to move the Caps pick up a few spots and take a flier on Raty.

Kooleus

A lot of people think Johnson projects as a winger in the NHL, if so, picking him doesn't help the Wings center position at all. Bernier and McTavish seem like the best bets to actually play center at the NHL level. Problem with McTavish is he is a scorer not a playmaker. Wings need a playmaking center.

Raty had a horrible season and didn't even make his WJC team. Fyodor Svetchkov would be a much better use of the Caps pick. One of the best two way centers in the draft with offensive skills and is also a playmaker. I think Svetchkov could be like the Caps Evgeny Kuznetsov but a solid 2 way player on top of it. Hard to say where Svetchkov will go, he's been ranked anywhere from 13th to 41st.

My hope is one of Power, Hughes, Clarke or Edvinsson drop to the Wings at 6th and with the Caps pick they can get Svetchkov. After the 1st round, i wouldn't mind guys like Sebastian Cossa, Colton Dach, Olen Zellweger, Aleksi Heimosalmi, Sean Behrens, Liam Dower-Nilsson among others.

He’s easily a top 20 center and only 22. Not sure why people aren’t high on him.
- Feds91Stammer

I agree with you, but I also understand why fans who rely more on eye test / reputation / boxcar stats would be less convinced.

Pettersson is easily better than Barzal, Connor, Chabot, and Sergachev.

Pettersson also outscores Rantanen at 5v5.

Vasy is such a rare case and goalies tend to be inconsistent over their careers so I’m kinda meh on that one.
- Feds91Stammer

Pettersson is easily better than Barzal? Um OK, based on what? They look pretty similar to me, although I give the slight edge to Barzal.

Kyle Connor has scored 31 goals, then 34, then 38, and was on pace for 38 more this year. He's just 24 and an elite goal scorer. I know he's a winger. But how can you just declare Pettersson is easily better?

You also seem to be missing the most important element. I never actually argued that ANYONE on this list was better than Pettersson. I personally think several of them are. I guess you disagree. My point is simple...even in a scenario where Pettersson improves our team, you are sacrificing 4 opportunities to add players of this calibre. For ONE Pettersson. Sorry. I'll pass. I'll take 4 more picks between 10-20 and I like the odds of hitting on a couple of them. Barzal + Hamilton is better than Pettersson. Larkin + Rantanen is better than Pettersson. Connor + Chychrun is better than Pettersson. Sorry. I know this is pretty complicated.