Roger Mussa: Meghan Duggan hired by the Devils and Draft Lottery Odds

Rangers are not in the top 5, although they do have a 1% chance. Jackets are the 5th team with 8.5% chance.

They reinstituted the limit on how far up a team can move. The Rangers have a 0% chance of picking in the top 5.

They reinstituted the limit on how far up a team can move. The Rangers have a 0% chance of picking in the top 5.
- Sashamook

The reduction in the number of draws will be implemented in 2021, but the “moving up” limitation as well as the winning more than twice in five years rule will not be implemented until the 2022 draft lottery.

https://elitesportsny.com...-to-draft-lottery-format/

All that said, I agree they should limit lottery wins, but the glaring problem with that rule is something that would have happened to this franchise. Basically, if it started this year, teams would basically say "we don't want to win the lottery this year" because the top two in this draft isn't going to necessarily yield surefire elite players.

That rule (about not winning more than twice in a five year span) will see an adjustment because some draft lotteries are worth way more than others. The lottery the NJ and Philly won with Hischier and Patrick going 1 and 2, and Hischier may still turn into an elite player, wouldn't be quite as valuable as a lottery NJ would win for Shane Wright or Bedard/Michkov who will be a 1/2 pop comparable to Ovechkin/Malkin and McDavid/Eichel.

Thankfully they're not instituting it right away, but it will cause problems if a team wins a lottery with a weaker top end like this year has and then they get a tally against them when far more talent is on the line.

Update on Shakir Mukhamadullin, per Corey Masisak: He had shoulder surgery but is expected to be ready for the start of next season in the KHL. He's coming to Jersey for a few weeks in June, and is expected to sign/come over to the Devils/Utica after next season.

So he's coming to NA sooner than anybody expected. I'm glad Fitz wants him over here asap.

https://elitesportsny.com/2021/03/23/nhl-agrees-to-changes-to-draft-lottery-format/

All that said, I agree they should limit lottery wins, but the glaring problem with that rule is something that would have happened to this franchise. Basically, if it started this year, teams would basically say "we don't want to win the lottery this year" because the top two in this draft isn't going to necessarily yield surefire elite players.

That rule (about not winning more than twice in a five year span) will see an adjustment because some draft lotteries are worth way more than others. The lottery the NJ and Philly won with Hischier and Patrick going 1 and 2, and Hischier may still turn into an elite player, wouldn't be quite as valuable as a lottery NJ would win for Shane Wright or Bedard/Michkov who will be a 1/2 pop comparable to Ovechkin/Malkin and McDavid/Eichel.

Thankfully they're not instituting it right away, but it will cause problems if a team wins a lottery with a weaker top end like this year has and then they get a tally against them when far more talent is on the line.
- archromat

It's a good point but I don't see how they can adjust the lottery for the expected value of the first overall pick. I also don't see real generational talent coming along that often so it will end up being a rare problem.

https://elitesportsny.com/2021/03/23/nhl-agrees-to-changes-to-draft-lottery-format/

All that said, I agree they should limit lottery wins, but the glaring problem with that rule is something that would have happened to this franchise. Basically, if it started this year, teams would basically say "we don't want to win the lottery this year" because the top two in this draft isn't going to necessarily yield surefire elite players.

That rule (about not winning more than twice in a five year span) will see an adjustment because some draft lotteries are worth way more than others. The lottery the NJ and Philly won with Hischier and Patrick going 1 and 2, and Hischier may still turn into an elite player, wouldn't be quite as valuable as a lottery NJ would win for Shane Wright or Bedard/Michkov who will be a 1/2 pop comparable to Ovechkin/Malkin and McDavid/Eichel.

Thankfully they're not instituting it right away, but it will cause problems if a team wins a lottery with a weaker top end like this year has and then they get a tally against them when far more talent is on the line.
- archromat

I agree. I was miffed that the Rags somehow scooped up Laf, despite finishing 11th in the NHL that season. But conversely, we have won it twice, so who are we to whine about it. Only bad thing is I would sell the whole farm for a Wright in the 22 draft, or Bedard in the 23 draft. Those kids are going to fall somewhere in the McDavid/Crosby/OV/Kane categories. They are already better than most of the top 10 ranked guys in this coming draft. Hard to see their game digressing.

Update on Shakir Mukhamadullin, per Corey Masisak: He had shoulder surgery but is expected to be ready for the start of next season in the KHL. He's coming to Jersey for a few weeks in June, and is expected to sign/come over to the Devils/Utica after next season.

So he's coming to NA sooner than anybody expected. I'm glad Fitz wants him over here asap.
- vlongo4419

I agree. We need to know what our prospects are capable of before making a big splash via trade or UFA. Walsh has been playing great, and Bahl might be another year out, but with Smith/Sevo/Subban/Butch already on the books for next season, and Sieg likely getting re-signed (has to be assumed as we didn't give up a 3rd for his 8 mediocre games), we need to know what we are working with. I still don't like that Sieg trade one bit, but it is what it is. I think Shak has a very high ceiling, and like how he plays the game. A big boy that skates like that should be wearing the Devs jersey sooner than later.

Update on Shakir Mukhamadullin, per Corey Masisak: He had shoulder surgery but is expected to be ready for the start of next season in the KHL. He's coming to Jersey for a few weeks in June, and is expected to sign/come over to the Devils/Utica after next season.

So he's coming to NA sooner than anybody expected. I'm glad Fitz wants him over here asap.
- vlongo4419

Nice

Sharagoalvic with a goal

Gave the middle finger to opposing bench

Not the most captain like behavior

Sharagoalvic with a goal

Gave the middle finger to opposing bench

Not the most captain like behavior
- dmarsden2988

it was pretty funny though

Santini in for the Blues tonight. Didn't realize he was even in that org.

I’d be down with Saad-Hughes-Sharangovich for some “insulation”.
Zacha-Hischier-Bratt
Foote-Boqvist-Kuokkanen
Wood-McLeod-Bastian

Another year of development. All of these guys are ready since they’ve all already been playing. Only newbie is Foote and he seems ready. Maybe Johnsson isn’t picked up and he plays in that spot.
Either way, There’s really only room to add 1 UFA forward.

Defense is similar but most could be upgraded.
Odds for whichever D we draft will be starting next year?
It’s not like we don’t have other guys ready to make the jump..

Smith-Severson
Butcher-Subban
Siegenthaler-Walsh

I’d be down with Saad-Hughes-Sharangovich for some “insulation”.
Zacha-Hischier-Bratt
Foote-Boqvist-Kuokkanen
Wood-McLeod-Bastian

Another year of development. All of these guys are ready since they’ve all already been playing. Only newbie is Foote and he seems ready. Maybe Johnsson isn’t picked up and he plays in that spot.
Either way, There’s really only room to add 1 UFA forward.

Defense is similar but most could be upgraded.
Odds for whichever D we draft will be starting next year?
It’s not like we don’t have other guys ready to make the jump..

Smith-Severson
Butcher-Subban
Siegenthaler-Walsh
- MartysBetter88

Yes and no. We have a problem with our top 6 being stocked with guys that are inconsistant. Many are fringe top 6 guys like Kuokk/Bratt/Zacha, and even Hughes needs more consistancy to be a considered a true top 6 by most standards. Not saying they won't get there, as I like the way our young core is developing. It's just hard when so many of them still have so much to prove. I would not be upset to bring in a solid UFA like Saad/Stastny, etc who have played that role with successful clubs. It so hard to determine if Foote/Boq/Holtz/Mercer/Shak/Walsh/Clark/Bahl are currently ready, and if they are where do we fit them. I think Fitz needs to make some decisions on who goes and who gets shipped out.

Again that Seig trade made no sense to me. Why would a capitals team be sellers, and why are we buyers at the deadline? With Smith and Murray locking up the top 2 LD spots, Butch (2nd among D in ppg) and Bahl/Shak both great prospects, why acquire Seig and then be forced to protect him at the expansion? While he only played 8 games for this club, his numbers were terrible. I think he is better than those numbers indicate, but I guess we are writing off Butch, and keeping Shak and Bahl out of the Devs lineup? Ideally, we would trade P.K. and Butch. Then move Smith back to his preferred RD, and add a decent veteran LD (Martinez). It's a ton of stickhandling, but this team needs a facelift while not ditching our prospects:

Murray Smith
Martinez Sevo
Shak Walsh

Yes and no. We have a problem with our top 6 being stocked with guys that are inconsistant. Many are fringe top 6 guys like Kuokk/Bratt/Zacha, and even Hughes needs more consistancy to be a considered a true top 6 by most standards. Not saying they won't get there, as I like the way our young core is developing. It's just hard when so many of them still have so much to prove. I would not be upset to bring in a solid UFA like Saad/Stastny, etc who have played that role with successful clubs. It so hard to determine if Foote/Boq/Holtz/Mercer/Shak/Walsh/Clark/Bahl are currently ready, and if they are where do we fit them. I think Fitz needs to make some decisions on who goes and who gets shipped out.

Again that Seig trade made no sense to me. Why would a capitals team be sellers, and why are we buyers at the deadline? With Smith and Murray locking up the top 2 LD spots, Butch (2nd among D in ppg) and Bahl/Shak both great prospects, why acquire Seig and then be forced to protect him at the expansion? While he only played 8 games for this club, his numbers were terrible. I think he is better than those numbers indicate, but I guess we are writing off Butch, and keeping Shak and Bahl out of the Devs lineup? Ideally, we would trade P.K. and Butch. Then move Smith back to his preferred RD, and add a decent veteran LD (Martinez). It's a ton of stickhandling, but this team needs a facelift while not ditching our prospects:

Murray Smith
Martinez Sevo
Shak Walsh
- bikeguy99

Completely disagree with your assessment on Siegenthaler and the D going forward. His numbers were actually pretty good. Everybody praised how good Kulikov was this season, and Siegenthalers numbers were better. Small sample size obviously but Siegenthaler led the defense in xGF%, SCF%, and HDCF% in those games. He also was on the ice for the least high danger chances against per game in that time. It was a very good trade. Again, it was a small sample size, and cut short by covid, but he definitely showed why we traded for him in those first 6 games before he got sick

Also, Bahl was not good at all after the first game and a half. Dude was completely caved in and was the worst defenseman on the team in every analytical category. He is still atleast a year away, and we already know Shak is still 2 years away, maybe longer. So it depends what you consider "great" prospects. Because i dont consider any of our D prospects great. Shak is a good prospect at best, still a huge project that may never make it to the NHL, and Bahl is just a fine prospect whose ceiling is a #4 at absolute best. I dont consider either to be a great prospect in any way.

Next season we will need to fill 2 D spots either via trade or free agency, because right now all we have is:

Smith-Sevo
Seigenthaler-Subban
??-??

I dont expect any prospect D to be on the team out of camp, and i don't expect Murray to re-sign. Butcher will be gone too most likely. So we'll need 2 D, hopefully atleast 1 is a true top 4 D.

Caps traded Siegenthaler because he wasn't in their top 6 and they couldn't protect him in the expansion draft. I wouldn't really call us taking on his meager contract being "buyers" especially when he is a young player on a team lacking defensive depth.

Caps traded Siegenthaler because he wasn't in their top 6 and they couldn't protect him in the expansion draft. I wouldn't really call us taking on his meager contract being "buyers" especially when he is a young player on a team lacking defensive depth.
- Pomegrant

Absolutely. Especially when that young player specializes in something that this team desperately needs. Which is a decent shutdown D that is defensively responsible.

The league screwed the Red Wings out of the first draft pick last season.

Caps traded Siegenthaler because he wasn't in their top 6 and they couldn't protect him in the expansion draft. I wouldn't really call us taking on his meager contract being "buyers" especially when he is a young player on a team lacking defensive depth.
- Pomegrant

I could care less about his salary. I would have liked to keep the 3rd rd pick. Did we really need the depth for the 8 games he suited up for? By no means was this a deal with big implications, but it made zero sense. Butcher was handled poorly, and healthy scratching him for the bulk of the season is no way to motivate the kid. You sit him a game or two, then throw him back in the lineup. His confidence is shot and he still mustered up decent offense in his limited reps. Siegs was not good at either end of the ice during his small sample size, tho I see why the Caps did not see him as necessary depth going forward.

I get we lack defensive depth. But Sieg is another guy that falls into the "fringe" category that we already have. 0 points through 15 games, and a -9 is not what we need to be giving up picks on at this point. I guess Ruff doesn't even want to showcase Butch in hopes of making him a trade-able asset. Typically, we have had success with when bundling our 2nd's and 3rd's for guys like Palms, Murray, Mojo. But this guy will not make that same impact. I understand giving up a 3rd when your making a run, but not when you have some competent young talent in the system, and a former 44 point D watching in the pressbox every night. This isn't a major setback for the club, but just a distraction that makes little sense in my eyes.

I could care less about his salary. I would have liked to keep the 3rd rd pick. Did we really need the depth for the 8 games he suited up for? By no means was this a deal with big implications, but it made zero sense. Butcher was handled poorly, and healthy scratching him for the bulk of the season is no way to motivate the kid. You sit him a game or two, then throw him back in the lineup. His confidence is shot and he still mustered up decent offense in his limited reps. Siegs was not good at either end of the ice during his small sample size, tho I see why the Caps did not see him as necessary depth going forward.

I get we lack defensive depth. But Sieg is another guy that falls into the "fringe" category that we already have. 0 points through 15 games, and a -9 is not what we need to be giving up picks on at this point. I guess Ruff doesn't even want to showcase Butch in hopes of making him a trade-able asset. Typically, we have had success with when bundling our 2nd's and 3rd's for guys like Palms, Murray, Mojo. But this guy will not make that same impact. I understand giving up a 3rd when your making a run, but not when you have some competent young talent in the system, and a former 44 point D watching in the pressbox every night. This isn't a major setback for the club, but just a distraction that makes little sense in my eyes.
- bikeguy99

Except he was. He was our best D defensively in the 6 games he played before he got covid. He was, and will be, well worth the 3rd round pick. If you use that pick to select a defensive D, Siegs is exactly what you're hoping that pick turns into. It was a solid move from Fitz. He filled an immediate and future need, and hes going to be on this team for the next few years at a minimum.

So Is this the token vagina hire? Or Is she really qualified?
- Shady1962

Based on her playing career with medals and all, qualified

What's the conversation rate of a 3rd round pick to being an NHL roster player. It's pretty low. While I agree that the handling of Butcher was poor and he wasn't nearly as bad as his play time suggests, I think to say Sieganthaler is just a bad player because of arbitrary stats like +/- and his raw point totals (especially when he isn't an offensive minded player) doesn't show a fair representation of him as a player. He is a defensive player with solid skating ability and makes good first passes out of the zone. He is never going to be an all-star type player but for a 3rd round draft pick he is a solid pick up. He is basically everything Mueller was supposed to be but we traded less to get him and he is just better in general.

What's the conversation rate of a 3rd round pick to being an NHL roster player. It's pretty low. While I agree that the handling of Butcher was poor and he wasn't nearly as bad as his play time suggests, I think to say Sieganthaler is just a bad player because of arbitrary stats like +/- and his raw point totals (especially when he isn't an offensive minded player) doesn't show a fair representation of him as a player. He is a defensive player with solid skating ability and makes good first passes out of the zone. He is never going to be an all-star type player but for a 3rd round draft pick he is a solid pick up. He is basically everything Mueller was supposed to be but we traded less to get him and he is just better in general.
- Pomegrant

Hit the nail on the head!

Sharagoalvic with a goal

Gave the middle finger to opposing bench

Not the most captain like behavior
- dmarsden2988

He could be my captain

Timo Meier looking good next to Nico in WC. He's a guy that's been struggling for the Sharks now for a couple of seasons.