Michael Stuart: Weaponizing Cap Space

You will have some competition for those dead weight contracts from Detroit,NJ, Buffalo, Montreal, and LA. But no worry, there is more than enough to go around!

I dont want any bums from Vancouver and I live here.🤣🤣 sens better not take any garbage contracts from Canucks unless 2021 1st rounder comes back our way or boeser but he may go to minni for dumba. Go sens go.

We should be hearing a lot of rumors to come for sens. I could imagine that sens are waiting for islanders and tampa trade. I think they are interested in tampa or islander players.🤔

Only problem with this idea for Ottawa is they have the cheapest owner in the NHL. I doubt he will want to spend big money on crappy players for draft picks/prospects.

I think something like taking Hossa's contract from Arizona for a guy on LTIR is more up his alley. Also players that have been paid a big bonus on July 1st that cost a lot less than their cap hits is what he will be looking for again.

Melnyk was a tight wad before this covid crap and has shown he will be even more of one with trying to cut staff salary by 50% making the NHL have to come in and put a stop to it....that doesn't scream "hey we'll take your expensive crap for draft picks and prospects " to me.

I think the Sens should target as many 2022 or 2023 1st round picks as possible. The Sens should keep sticking the cupboards for well after they hit their peak to ensure they have capital to make impactful trades in the future and to be able to draw on quality depth

Weaponizing cap space is a valid strategic option for several NHL teams.

But the secret to succeeding in any bear market is patience. If the market is problematic today for teams trying to move assets or negotiate deals...guaranteed, it is going to get a lot worse. Multiple teams need to do deals but few have the ability to take back salary.

I believe Dorion is capable of leveraging his position as we move closer towards draft day.

Watch for Dorion and the Sens to broker deals by being the third man into the deal. There will be deals between two teams where both teams lack the cap space to finalize a deal.

The Leafs, for example, want to add a proven goalie and a top 2 rearguard plus sign some of their own RFA players. They will need to move a goalie salary and another forward.

Leafs have the 15th pick in this draft. Would the Sens take back a $5m goalie salary and perhaps another short term contract? Tampa, St Louis, Islanders, Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg and several other teams are going to need to make deals in order to complete their rosters for next season. The Rangers will find a way to gracefully move Lundqvist, who will likely retire. Sens have the cap capacity to make that work for the Rangers.

Dorion needs to be patient. He also needs to be open to taking back players who might be attractive to playoff teams at the next trade deadline.

They should resign Borowiecki as he's a good player to have with all the young kids the Sens are going to have on the roster the next couple of seasons.

Given the lack of gate revenues, I think we can expect Melnyk to go into full turtle mode for the coming year. And I'm not even sure I can really blame him, given the pandemic and the fact that the team is more than just 1 year away from serious contention. The interesting thing is that the books are so lean that he could actually still aim at the cap floor, and be able to make weaponized trades.

If you look at the team's cap situation, they've gone from $74M to about $42M, with 6 RFA in the form of Tierney, Brown, Duclair, Paul, Balcers, and Hawryluk. The decrease is due in part to the removal of Callahan/MacArthur from the LTIR, as well as the loss of over $15M in the form of Pageau, Anderson, Hainsey, and Boedker. You may even see them buy out Ryan and Anisimov - especially given the extent to which it reduces salary payment this year, while still counting significantly against the cap.

Ryan/Anisimov Buyout - Remainder of Contracts
No Buyout - $18.0M Actual Payment, $19.0M Cap Space
Buyout - $8.2M Actual Payment, $14.9M Cap Space

Ryan/Anisimov Buyout - 2020/21
No Buyout - $10.5M Actual Payment, $11.8M Cap Space
Buyout - $2.3M Actual Payment, $7.2M Cap Space

So for the coming year, buying out Ryan/Anisimov would given them $7.2M of cap space and only cost them $2.3M of actual dollars. If they were to add a guy like Loui Eriksson to the buyout mix via trade, it would add $5.7M of cap hit in 2020/21 for just $0.7M of actual cash. Similarly, buying out a guy like Lucic would yield $4.8M of cap space in 2020/21 for just $0.5M of actual cash. And given that there's virtually no way they'll become a Cap Ceiling team in the next 2-3 years, there's minimal risk in how the later years of these buyouts would affect their cap situation.

You really have to re-think the math when it comes to Melnyk. The interesting thing is that they could actually get some valuable things from both the Canucks and Flames for eliminating the Eriksson/Lucic contracts. So it will be interesting if Dorion can actually make lemonade while capitalizing on these kinds of opportunities to make the team compliant with the cap floor without actually spending anywhere near $60M in the coming season.

Reports coming out from tsn 1200 and the athletic that the senators will land tim stuztle at #3

Reports coming out from tsn 1200 and the athletic that's the senators will land tim stuztle at #3
- SENS-sational

fingers crossed. (listening to that right now actually)

Given the lack of gate revenues, I think we can expect Melnyk to go into full turtle mode for the coming year. And I'm not even sure I can really blame him, given the pandemic and the fact that the team is more than just 1 year away from serious contention. The interesting thing is that the books are so lean that he could actually still aim at the cap floor, and be able to make weaponized trades.

If you look at the team's cap situation, they've gone from $74M to about $42M, with 6 RFA in the form of Tierney, Brown, Duclair, Paul, Balcers, and Hawryluk. The decrease is due in part to the removal of Callahan/MacArthur from the LTIR, as well as the loss of over $15M in the form of Pageau, Anderson, Hainsey, and Boedker. You may even see them buy out Ryan and Anisimov - especially given the extent to which it reduces salary payment this year, while still counting significantly against the cap.

Ryan/Anisimov Buyout - Remainder of Contracts
No Buyout - $18.0M Actual Payment, $19.0M Cap Space
Buyout - $8.2M Actual Payment, $14.9M Cap Space

Ryan/Anisimov Buyout - 2020/21
No Buyout - $10.5M Actual Payment, $11.8M Cap Space
Buyout - $2.3M Actual Payment, $7.2M Cap Space

So for the coming year, buying out Ryan/Anisimov would given them $7.2M of cap space and only cost them $2.3M of actual dollars. If they were to add a guy like Loui Eriksson to the buyout mix via trade, it would add $5.7M of cap hit in 2020/21 for just $0.7M of actual cash. Similarly, buying out a guy like Lucic would yield $4.8M of cap space in 2020/21 for just $0.5M of actual cash. And given that there's virtually no way they'll become a Cap Ceiling team in the next 2-3 years, there's minimal risk in how the later years of these buyouts would affect their cap situation.

You really have to re-think the math when it comes to Melnyk. The interesting thing is that they could actually get some valuable things from both the Canucks and Flames for eliminating the Eriksson/Lucic contracts. So it will be interesting if Dorion can actually make lemonade while capitalizing on these kinds of opportunities to make the team compliant with the cap floor without actually spending anywhere near $60M in the coming season.
- khawk

I think I first brought up Loui Eriksson (4m in actual salary).
If Sens buyout Bobby Ryan, I think it's $2.42m for next 4 years. So it's 14.5m over 2 years to have him play in your line up OR pay 9.666m over 4 years to not play here

Trivia: What does this team have in common?

Max Domi - Jonathan Toews - Mark Stone
Michael Ferland - Travis Zajac - Alexander Steen
Darren Helm - Cody Eakin - Dale Weise
Jordan Martinook - Cody Glass - Ryan Reaves

Duncan Keith - Travis Hamonic
Joel Edmundson - Damon Severson
Travis Sanheim - Ryan Pulock

James Reimer
Calvin Pickard

Also.... why didn't Ottawa sign Joe Edmundson? Is it because of Seattle?

Dorion needs to take his time.

He can hit a huge home run.

I still like the 15th overall pick from Pittsburgh that is now in the custody of the Leafs.

Trivia: What does this team have in common?

Max Domi - Jonathan Toews - Mark Stone
Michael Ferland - Travis Zajac - Alexander Steen
Darren Helm - Cody Eakin - Dale Weise
Jordan Martinook - Cody Glass - Ryan Reaves

Duncan Keith - Travis Hamonic
Joel Edmundson - Damon Severson
Travis Sanheim - Ryan Pulock

James Reimer
Calvin Pickard

Also.... why didn't Ottawa sign Joe Edmundson? Is it because of Seattle?
- AlfieisKing

because he's not a great player, he's a bottom pairing guy making 3.5 mil........Bergevin is INSANE for giving out that deal.

the happiest person alive for the Edmundson deal is Boro, as both are similar players (on the ice)........if it's going to cost 3.5mil to land a mediocre bottom pairing guy, i'm stoked we let Boro walk.

Dorion needs to take his time.

He can hit a huge home run.

I still like the 15th overall pick from Pittsburgh that is now in the custody of the Leafs.
- spatso

i'd rather them pull a deal with Edmonton.

the 14th pick and Pulijjarvi for something, then draft the Russian goalie (assuming canes didn't take him at 13

14, JP, and Russell (as a cap dump)

for

Isles pick, Ottawa 2nd rd pick, gustavsson

I think I first brought up Loui Eriksson (4m in actual salary).
If Sens buyout Bobby Ryan, I think it's $2.42m for next 4 years. So it's 14.5m over 2 years to have him play in your line up OR pay 9.666m over 4 years to not play here
- AlfieisKing

If you look at he actual contract, Ryan has 2 years left at $7.5M/yr in terms of real dollars. The buyout doesn't include signing bonus money, so it's actually less than what you've suggested... just $1.8M/yr, or $7.2M total. More importantly, in the coming year where the league may have no gate revenues, it's $7.5M vs. $1.8M in real dollars spent... plus it would be a NMC off the books prior to the Seattle expansion, so you can protect an extra forward. Put in context, they could play someone like Davidsson at #4RW all year, and still save $5M next year. Masterson aside, I just don't see how or why they wouldn't buy Ryan out at this point.

As for Eriksson/Lucic, as I said they're in a unique situation where contracts that are that cap heavy vs. salary payment could actually be welcome in order to keep actual costs well below the $60M cap floor for next year. With another expansion draft coming, you could also see teams willing to pay a serious premium to move difficult long-term NMC contracts like Seabrook, which if bought out would yield a cap hit of $6.6M next year for just $0.7M of actual payment. In fact, I'm pretty sure the #17 pick could be in play if such a deal were on the table.

i'd rather them pull a deal with Edmonton.

the 14th pick and Pulijjarvi for something, then draft the Russian goalie (assuming canes didn't take him at 13

14, JP, and Russell (as a cap dump)

for

Isles pick, Ottawa 2nd rd pick, gustavsson
- sensarmy_11

I like that, it is a nice package you have put together.

If you look at he actual contract, Ryan has 2 years left at $7.5M/yr in terms of real dollars. The buyout doesn't include signing bonus money, so it's actually less than what you've suggested... just $1.8M/yr, or $7.2M total. More importantly, in the coming year where the league may have no gate revenues, it's $7.5M vs. $1.8M in real dollars spent... plus it would be a NMC off the books prior to the Seattle expansion, so you can protect an extra forward. Put in context, they could play someone like Davidsson at #4RW all year, and still save $5M next year. Masterson aside, I just don't see how or why they wouldn't buy Ryan out at this point.

As for Eriksson/Lucic, as I said they're in a unique situation where contracts that are that cap heavy vs. salary payment could actually be welcome in order to keep actual costs well below the $60M cap floor for next year. With another expansion draft coming, you could also see teams willing to pay a serious premium to move difficult long-term NMC contracts like Seabrook, which if bought out would yield a cap hit of $6.6M next year for just $0.7M of actual payment. In fact, I'm pretty sure the #17 pick could be in play if such a deal were on the table.
- khawk

The #17 pick would sell me on this option.

The #17 pick would sell me on this option.
- spatso

I agree... I'd far rather have them take on a major buyout like Seabrook and get a premium asset like the #17 pick in return, then nickle and dime around things like the Callahan/Gaborik deal. Or maybe even defer the benefit to future years, if it meant increasing the overall return (e.g. a 1st in 2022 plus 2nd in 2021 type of thing).

Good conversation today.

Unless the Sens still need to get to the cap floor, I don't see much potential for a Marleau/Carolina deal where we could stock up more picks. It will be interesting to see what happens though.

Draft around the corner. Exciting times.

Good conversation today.

Unless the Sens still need to get to the cap floor, I don't see much potential for a Marleau/Carolina deal where we could stock up more picks. It will be interesting to see what happens though.

Draft around the corner. Exciting times.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

only way I could see it is if it's for a player with a high cap but lower actual $$......which is why I mentioned Russell in my earlier deal (4 mil cap but only 2 mil in actual $$ I believe)

only way I could see it is if it's for a player with a high cap but lower actual $$......which is why I mentioned Russell in my earlier deal (4 mil cap but only 2 mil in actual $$ I believe)
- sensarmy_11

True. There are possibilities out there to bring in body for cap relief for another team where the actual dollars are less but probably won't net you a very high pick. Better than nothing I suppose.

Unless the Sens still need to get to the cap floor, I don't see much potential for a Marleau/Carolina deal where we could stock up more picks. It will be interesting to see what happens though.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Well, they're currently $18M under the cap floor, with 6 RFA and a few ELC players to make up the difference... plus, they could still cut several million with buyouts for Ryan/Anisimov. I guess my point was that they could actually make it more of a necessity to reach the cap floor if they were to enact these buyouts... which ironically, would actually wind up saving Melnyk even money. I just think it would be surprising for Melnyk not to push for such an option, given that it could potentially yield quality assets as well.

True. There are possibilities out there to bring in body for cap relief for another team where the actual dollars are less but probably won't net you a very high pick. Better than nothing I suppose.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

The issue for most teams is the cap hit, not the dollar amount. If they were to target players like Eriksson ($6.0Mx2yrs AAV), Lucic ($5.3Mx3yrs AAV), Okposo ($6.0M/3yrs AAV), or Seabrook ($6.9Mx4yrs), they would get back a whole lot more than just a mid-round pick. And in each case, the dollars remaining are substantially less than the cap hit on paper, especially in a buyout scenario where you don't include owed signing bonus money in the calculation.