Bill Meltzer: So Close and Yet So Far

Good summary Bill. Not sure how they improve with some bad contracts and declining players that can't be moved. They have some depth on D that maybe they could use for trades, but seem to lack any impact forwards in the pipeline.

Team needs much more skill and SPEED up front. That’s where it starts along with our bottom D pairing were ran over and over with other teams speed and when had any pressure on them instead of skating hard to the puck going to the boards they slow down and brace for the bodycheck and then hope to win the board battle and move the puck. If they would keep moving their feet to the puck and make a solid play on it, could cause less turnovers. A lot of the guys back their couldn’t win the puck battles.

Good summary Bill. Not sure how they improve with some bad contracts and declining players that can't be moved. They have some depth on D that maybe they could use for trades, but seem to lack any impact forwards in the pipeline.
- matman31

Frost is a potential impact forward. He will improve from his rookie season and, by year 3 as a pro, I think he will be a regular point producer in the NHL.

If Patrick is healthy and gets back on track at least as a viable 3C, that'd be a lot youth injected up front.

Lindblom will re-add weight and be fine for next season . Joel Farabee is only 20 and will continue to improve.

Allison still has power forward potential. Laczynzki could be a valuable and versatile type to move around the lineup (as could Noah Cates).

So, all in all, I am not worried about youth up front. Depth is the key.

Frost is a potential impact forward. He will improve from his rookie season and, by year 3 as a pro, I think he will be a regular point producer in the NHL.

If Patrick is healthy and gets back on track at least as a viable 3C, that'd be a lot youth injected up front.

Lindblom will re-add weight and be fine for next season . Joel Farabee is only 20 and will continue to improve.

Allison still has power forward potential. Laczynzki could be a valuable and versatile type to move around the lineup (as could Noah Cates).

So, all in all, I am not worried about youth up front. Depth is the key.
- bmeltzer

Bill,

Do you see any of them as top-20 scoring types? Seems like Frost and Farabee have the best shots.

Hextall did a very good job stocking the cupboards that now you can afford to offer Seattle a draft pick (probably a first, possibly a 2nd) to take JVR off your hands

Frost is a potential impact forward. He will improve from his rookie season and, by year 3 as a pro, I think he will be a regular point producer in the NHL.

If Patrick is healthy and gets back on track at least as a viable 3C, that'd be a lot youth injected up front.

Lindblom will re-add weight and be fine for next season . Joel Farabee is only 20 and will continue to improve.

Allison still has power forward potential. Laczynzki could be a valuable and versatile type to move around the lineup (as could Noah Cates).

So, all in all, I am not worried about youth up front. Depth is the key.
- bmeltzer

Thanks Bill!
Do you think Chuck will be able to unload a JVR or Voracek contract to say Buffalo or Ottawa...they have plenty of cap space and only have 4 or 5 forwards under contract.

I think the idea that the Flyers are close to contending for a Stanley Cup are not true.

It's certainly not based on the playoff performance this year.

Montreal series - First off, in a normal playoff season Montreal wouldn't have sniffed a playoff birth. They essentially punted their season at the trade deadline. The Flyers won the series, but were outplayed for long stretches by an offensively challenged Montreal team.

NY Islanders series- Series going 7 games have people with clouded views. The series wasn't nearly that close. The Islanders dominated in every facet of the game with the exception of goaltending. The incompetence of the PP, the constant turning the pucks over in the defensive zone, going long stretches without generating any offense. Every game looked the same. It was hard to watch the same thing happen over and over again with zero adjustments.

Not sure how to gauge the bubble atmosphere. All teams were in the same boat, but no real way to quantify how it effected teams/players. 13 playoff games are good experience for all the young players obviously. Hart was great and he is the future.

Bill, Thanks for your work and providing such great insight to the team.

I'm excited for the future and hope we can infuse some of the young prospects in 20-21. I would also love to see a trade for a winger such as a Boone Jenner or Josh Anderson type (CBJ). They are big guys who have playoff experience.

My hope is that everyone takes this experience and grows from it. Sanheim seemed off in the Isles series. He now knows what playoff hockey is all about.

I have to believe we resign Pitlick and one of Thompson or Grant (unless a trade brings us their replacements). Not sure how I feel about resigning Braun.

Looking forward to the offseason and your insight on potential deals.

If I was GM for a day I would thank Therien for his work and move on.
I would see what the market for Ghost and Jake are.
Ghost I’m sure you can get some sort of value from.
Jake I’m not sure what you can do with that contract.
Might have to add a prospect in with the trade.
I wouldn’t bring Braun, Grant, or Thompson back.
I would really work hard on developing Frost, Ratcliffe, Allison, Brink, Zamula, York
.
If Frost can be a second line winger that’s a plus. I can see him with 1st line potential but he seems to inconsistent with the energy every night.
If one or two of Allison and Ratcliffe can be that big body on the third line creating bad matchups for the other team and can score that would be huge.
If Brink could be a Briere light that would be ideal.
If Zamula can come in and take a third pairing spot that’s a plus for a non drafted player.
Hopefully York can be groomed to run the first group power play.
Myers and Sanheim need heavy duty strength training.
I would love to see Myers get a bit of a mean streak.
Of course this isn’t all going to happen this upcoming year but that’s the goal moving forward if I had any input into the decisions.

Thanks for another stellar season of Flyers blogs here and on the official site Bill.

Chuck Fletcher came into Philly with a pretty promising situation but his job just got quite a bit harder after what we’ve seen happen here.

Personal opinion: AV has done a great job overall and unfortunately came up against Barry Trotz in the playoffs. I think he did all he could as far as lineup decisions go. I think he maybe should have been more sure before pulling the trigger on the coaches challenges.

Ultimately the players never played to their potential during the playoffs. Is that on the coach? The coach can only motivate the players until they step foot on the ice, then it’s up to them.

The breakout on the PP has got to change. It was taking them entirely too long to even enter the zone once the puck came out. I estimate they lost 15% of the little PP time they had to getting the puck up ice. I don’t have to say it but the PP is an opportunity to attack but that didn’t appear to be the strategy.

The powerplay must be fixed. It was inconsistent at best during the season and a train wreck in the playoffs. I don’t care how much AV likes him, Michel Therrien needs to go.

Were they outplay way too often by the Isles? Yes, absolutely. But, if they scored a few pp goals they still might have won that series.

Things that must be addressed going forward:

Building 3 lines that can score and a 4th that can at least generate O zone pressure. The Flyers don’t have a franchise forward who can singlehandedly make something happen, nor do they have any forwards that are top 10 at their positions when ranked strictly on offensive production. They need to build a group like the Devils had when they were winning Cups, DEEP.

Moving away from the 2 stay at home D on the 3rd pairing. You can get away with having one guy like Hagg or Braun, but not two. If they are moving on from Ghost and keeping Hagg then you need a skilled, mobile player to pair with him.

Fix the pp. Personally, while he scored a few goals, I don’t like Provy on the top unit. He doesn’t distribute the puck well and just doesn’t have good chemistry with G. If they are moving on from Ghost, I’d like to see Myers get a look on pp1. He has the skill set to make it work. Having Patrick back would be nice too, I’d much rather have him over TK on the top unit.

Frost, Farabee and especially Sanheim need to hit the weight room this fall. Watching Sanheim constantly lose battles along the boards is maddening.

Kevin Hayes is a solid player and great on the PK, but the guy has tunnel vision. When he’s playing center he needs a grinder that can win puck battles on one wing and a guy that can play well without the puck on the other. I’d like to see him between Farabee and NAK. I’d also like to see him move to RW at times with Frost in the middle and Farabee on the left.

I’d like to see them move JVR in the off season to open up cap room down the road. I’d they have to retain a million or so to get it done, so be it. Assuming Hall moves on, Arizona could be interested.

I wonder if Seattle would take JVR off your hands if you attached Nolan Patrick? His stick has obviously fallen drastically, but he’s super young and has pedigree. There’s no way a first-round pick will suffice. That contract is next-level horrendous

Everything that made the Flyers a success in the regular season fell apart in the playoffs. Most notably the turnovers and team defense. Seems an overwhelming majority of the opposition's goals were self inflicted.

The powerplay must be fixed. It was inconsistent at best during the season and a train wreck in the playoffs. I don’t care how much AV likes him, Michel Therrien needs to go.

Were they outplay way too often by the Isles? Yes, absolutely. But, if they scored a few pp goals they still might have won that series.

Things that must be addressed going forward:

Building 3 lines that can score and a 4th that can at least generate O zone pressure. The Flyers don’t have a franchise forward who can singlehandedly make something happen, nor do they have any forwards that are top 10 at their positions when ranked strictly on offensive production. They need to build a group like the Devils had when they were winning Cups, DEEP.




Moving away from the 2 stay at home D on the 3rd pairing. You can get away with having one guy like Hagg or Braun, but not two. If they are moving on from Ghost and keeping Hagg then you need a skilled, mobile player to pair with him.

Fix the pp. Personally, while he scored a few goals, I don’t like Provy on the top unit. He doesn’t distribute the puck well and just doesn’t have good chemistry with G. If they are moving on from Ghost, I’d like to see Myers get a look on pp1. He has the skill set to make it work. Having Patrick back would be nice too, I’d much rather have him over TK on the top unit.

Frost, Farabee and especially Sanheim need to hit the weight room this fall. Watching Sanheim constantly lose battles along the boards is maddening.

Kevin Hayes is a solid player and great on the PK, but the guy has tunnel vision. When he’s playing center he needs a grinder that can win puck battles on one wing and a guy that can play well without the puck on the other. I’d like to see him between Farabee and NAK. I’d also like to see him move to RW at times with Frost in the middle and Farabee on the left.

I’d like to see them move JVR in the off season to open up cap room down the road. I’d they have to retain a million or so to get it done, so be it. Assuming Hall moves on, Arizona could be interested.
- BiggE

I like your take on the PP. I think Myers earned a look on the PP1. Provorov is good at dropping a bomb from the point but so is Myers.

Unfortunately I don’t see how they can unload JVR in just about any sItuation. Kudos to Fletch if he can make it happen.

Frost is a potential impact forward. He will improve from his rookie season and, by year 3 as a pro, I think he will be a regular point producer in the NHL.

If Patrick is healthy and gets back on track at least as a viable 3C, that'd be a lot youth injected up front.

Lindblom will re-add weight and be fine for next season . Joel Farabee is only 20 and will continue to improve.

Allison still has power forward potential. Laczynzki could be a valuable and versatile type to move around the lineup (as could Noah Cates).

So, all in all, I am not worried about youth up front. Depth is the key.
- bmeltzer

I noticed Ratcliffe is not mentioned on your list. Thoughts on his max upside?

I agree with most said already, but agree with Pelle the most which is why I’m not doom and gloom. We made non stop self inflicted mistakes that were uncharacteristic compared to how we played in regular season. Not to discredit Isles forecheck, it was great. But we played in our d zone how we played before hiring AV.

Kevin Hayes is a solid player and great on the PK, but the guy has tunnel vision. When he’s playing center he needs a grinder that can win puck battles on one wing and a guy that can play well without the puck on the other. I’d like to see him between Farabee and NAK. I’d also like to see him move to RW at times with Frost in the middle and Farabee on the left.
- BiggE

I couldn’t agree more. This is spot on and bugged me a lot, but Thompson or Grant really needed NAK. Moving forward this needs to be fixed.

I agree with most said already, but agree with Pelle the most which is why I’m not doom and gloom. We made non stop self inflicted mistakes that were uncharacteristic compared to how we played in regular season. Not to discredit Isles forecheck, it was great. But we played in our d zone how we played before hiring AV.
- arichardson22

That’s totally true. There were some things that I thought they had overcome that they had fallen back to. Like blowing multi goal leads.

I'm still pretty sick over that game 7 embarrassment. The passive play, outside of the first few minutes and a shift or two in the 3rd, was shocking.

Having said that, I love the Flyers and I hope we can improve next year. The need for speed stands out ... or, at least players who have quicker reactions to the puck, and don't stand and look at it while the other team races over to get it.

oh well, life goes on.

Trying to be optimistic here but idk how they fix the PP without a roster move (or moves) at this point. Best case scenario they get Patrick and Frost on the ice to produce.

I think the entire league knows how to shut down the Giroux QB’d PP at this point. Something has got to give.

Bill,

Thanks for all the work you have done this season and for tolerating my recent over-representation in these parts.

I would like to attempt my own amateur analysis, whatever it is worth.

Goalie:

Carter Hart is a goalie of tremendous promise. I admire how good of a goalie he is technically, but I especially admire how he shrugs off a bad goal or even two and simply does not let it get to him for the rest of the game. Its amazing really given his age.

Long may he rule our net.


Defense

I will largely give the defense a pass, given youth.

However, I think Niskanen showed why he was let go by Caps and that he no longer has the tools to be a legit top pairing guy in a contending team. Not unless his partner is some Hedman/Jones/Pietrangelo type.

I also think that some of the fanbase are counting chickens before they hatch about the rise to elite status of Provorov and the rise to very good 2nd pairing status (at least) by Myers-Sanheim.

I hope it happens, but I also know that not all raised cups go to lips without slips.



Forwards
I am quite pessimistic about the forwards. It's theoretically possible the Covid layoff affected things badly, but the manner of ineffectuality of the Giroux-Voracek core seems awfully familiar, so I am more inclined to believe it is a reversion to fundamentals with the much different game that comes by playoff times. In other words, it is the regular season that is the anomaly, not the playoffs. In past seasons there was the possibility that they suffered because of the lack of a valid 2nd line(so that others could key in on them) but this was belied this post-season. The #2 center was by far our biggest offensive threat.

I would also and especially draw every one's attention to the impact of Couturier come playoff time. Couturier's role has changed dramatically in the last 5 years from shutdown 3C to #1C, and thus the following fact should take that into account. But it is still striking: take away 2 games against Pitt in 2012 and 2018 respectively, and here are his stats for the remaining games.

37 games: 4 goals 9 assists: 13 points


I do not believe Couturier will scare any team as an offensive weapon in the playoffs. He may neutralize, he may win Corsi battles, but he will struggle to create goals without significant help, and I really mean significant.

In that regard, Frost may turn out to be a game-breaker, and Konecny may overcome his abysmal showing and display postseason maturity and Farabee may turn out to be great and Lindblom may turn out to be a legit 1st line winger and so on, but I see a lot of maybe's there, and after seeing the other teams in playoffs, I believe the distance between hope and reality is quite large. I believe we need game breaking offensive talent and I don't see anything emerging to that level in the next few years.

And then there is the matter of the contracts of Roo, Voracek and JVR in a flat salary cap age.

Summary

In summary, I don't see this team contending in the near future (next 4 years). Just my take - not embittered, just an honest assessment, as rational as I can best see. Do I see the core of a good team? Yes. Do I see the beginnings of a contending team? I am afraid not.

Not trying to piss anyone off, and would be delighted if I am wrong.

I'm still pretty sick over that game 7 embarrassment. The passive play, outside of the first few minutes and a shift or two in the 3rd, was shocking.

Having said that, I love the Flyers and I hope we can improve next year. The need for speed stands out ... or, at least players who have quicker reactions to the puck, and don't stand and look at it while the other team races over to get it.

oh well, life goes on.
- FlyerGuy

Andy Greene had two goals in the series, Giroux and Konecny combined for one. Think about that? How is that even fathomable?

Lou Lamoriello has been caving this franchise in for a quarter century, and it's beyond old.

Thanks Bill, excellent read as usual. Although the playoffs ended on a sour note, the Flyers have some work to do but there’s also some good young players assembled here and if they can continue to draft well the future looks bright!

It’s so hard to make moves in today’s cap world but the team desperately needs more speed up front, hopefully some of the kids can provide that, they couldn’t transition the puck out of their zone quick enough to thwart a heavy forechecking team.

The powerplay must be fixed. It was inconsistent at best during the season and a train wreck in the playoffs. I don’t care how much AV likes him, Michel Therrien needs to go.

Were they outplay way too often by the Isles? Yes, absolutely. But, if they scored a few pp goals they still might have won that series.

Things that must be addressed going forward:

Building 3 lines that can score and a 4th that can at least generate O zone pressure. The Flyers don’t have a franchise forward who can singlehandedly make something happen, nor do they have any forwards that are top 10 at their positions when ranked strictly on offensive production. They need to build a group like the Devils had when they were winning Cups, DEEP.

Moving away from the 2 stay at home D on the 3rd pairing. You can get away with having one guy like Hagg or Braun, but not two. If they are moving on from Ghost and keeping Hagg then you need a skilled, mobile player to pair with him.

Fix the pp. Personally, while he scored a few goals, I don’t like Provy on the top unit. He doesn’t distribute the puck well and just doesn’t have good chemistry with G. If they are moving on from Ghost, I’d like to see Myers get a look on pp1. He has the skill set to make it work. Having Patrick back would be nice too, I’d much rather have him over TK on the top unit.

Frost, Farabee and especially Sanheim need to hit the weight room this fall. Watching Sanheim constantly lose battles along the boards is maddening.

Kevin Hayes is a solid player and great on the PK, but the guy has tunnel vision. When he’s playing center he needs a grinder that can win puck battles on one wing and a guy that can play well without the puck on the other. I’d like to see him between Farabee and NAK. I’d also like to see him move to RW at times with Frost in the middle and Farabee on the left.

I’d like to see them move JVR in the off season to open up cap room down the road. I’d they have to retain a million or so to get it done, so be it. Assuming Hall moves on, Arizona could be interested.
- BiggE

I said it countless times during the year about Provy on the PP, he just doesn’t have that creativity to warrant the top unit. Have you ever seen him fake a shot on the PP ever?