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Forums :: Blog World :: James Tanner: Chayka News Doesn't Overshadow the Fact Coyotes Will Play Important Games
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James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 28 @ 11:11 AM ET
James Tanner: Chayka News Doesn't Overshadow the Fact Coyotes Will Play Important Games
halo63
Joined: 01.02.2015

Jul 28 @ 11:18 AM ET
E4 Eklund cut tanners last blog and told him to cut the bs nonsense and political bating and write something pertaining to hockey.

E5 tanner still doesn’t know hockey and can’t remember how much he creamed up over chayka in the past.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 28 @ 11:32 AM ET
E4 Eklund cut tanners last blog and told him to cut the bs nonsense and political bating and write something pertaining to hockey.

E5 tanner still doesn’t know hockey and can’t remember how much he creamed up over chayka in the past.

- halo63



There was nothing political about my last blog. If that were the case, I would have been fired four years ago, but no one minds when you tell the truth.

They were not a fan of the swearing and attacks on a certain ex-GM. Or was it an elaborate ruse to create drama? You'll never know!

I think Chayka is the second best young GM in the game and the Coyotes will regret losing him.

But I know for a fact that whenever someone questions your knowledge on something, it's a form of gatekeeping born of jealousy and insecurity. (Which should be obvious but probably isn't to someone with morals that allow them to insult someone from behind an anonymous user name).
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 28 @ 11:37 AM ET
Chaykas damage is done and the coyotes will enter hockey purgatory for a few years
Kooleus
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA (home of King Alex), CA
Joined: 11.17.2018

Jul 28 @ 12:04 PM ET
Hey Tanner. You said the analyst community felt Chayka's approach was insane. Do you have any evidence of this? Just one example would be great.

Also, you said to be a contender in a cap world it demands drafting at the top of the class. Really? St. Louis just won the Cup after having just 1 top 10 pick in the last 12 years. Seems like smart trading, smart signing, and great drafting worked for them. Caps haven't had a top 10 pick in 13 years. How many top 5 picks are on the Bruins Cup-winning roster?

Nice false narrative.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Wedgie guy is the leader of the club here. You will not get him to speak like an actual adult.
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jul 28 @ 12:08 PM ET
Chaykas damage is done and the coyotes will enter hockey purgatory for a few years
- ClaudeFather

I don't understand how a team with so few stars can be so up against the cap.

Even putting Hossa onto LTIR won't make enough space.

Osprey
Joined: 11.10.2015

Jul 28 @ 12:08 PM ET
As someone who was critical about the last few blogs, I'll go ahead and give credit that this is a half decent one. Tanner didn't use it as a rant to complain about management, the NHL, politics, anti-analytic people or his readers. Instead, he actually talked a bit about the Coyotes. That deserves encouragement, I think.
Gerk
St Louis Blues
Location: say it aint so TARASENKO, YT
Joined: 01.07.2008

Jul 28 @ 12:10 PM ET
dont sign the contract if you are gonna weiner out shortly there after

What does this say to every future employer. Hey, I'm only here till I get something better. That legal agreement we signed means nothing.

Now most of these teams going to have to put in clawback and other terms to protect themselves. Should be punitive damages for situations where there clearly has been collaboration / tampering while under existing employment contracts.

ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 28 @ 12:11 PM ET
I don't understand how a team with so few stars can be so up against the cap.

Even putting Hossa onto LTIR won't make enough space.

- Atomic Wedgie

It’s so bad, I look at that roster and it’s like geez what happened here. Even with Hall.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 28 @ 12:18 PM ET
Hey Tanner. You said the analyst community felt Chayka's approach was insane. Do you have any evidence of this? Just one example would be great.

Also, you said to be a contender in a cap world it demands drafting at the top of the class. Really? St. Louis just won the Cup after having just 1 top 10 pick in the last 12 years. Seems like smart trading, smart signing, and great drafting worked for them. Caps haven't had a top 10 pick in 13 years. How many top 5 picks are on the Bruins Cup-winning roster?

Nice false narrative.

- Kooleus



The NHL analytics community has disowned Chayka from the beginning, constantly being annoyed that he was their most prominent member from a media narrative standpoint, but following almost none of their beliefs.

You can look this up, there is a ton of stuff out there, it's not my job to prove anything to you.

As for St. Louis, I suggest you look up they logical fallacy of anecdotal evidence. One example doesn't mean (frank) all. If you want to compete every year in the NHL, it's almost impossible to do so without high-end players, which are nearly impossible to get if you don't win the draft lottery.

The Bruins had three players who were not high-end picks magically turn into three of the top players in the NHL. If this happens, you are right, you do not need a top draft pick.

Pierre Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have all somehow become players worthy of a #1 overall pick. But this rarely happens.

Nine of the last eleven Cup winners have had a top-two pick on their roster. The exceptions being Boston (see above) and the Blues, who won perhaps the flukiest cup of all time.
gergeswillems
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Malkin wants to be The Man, ON
Joined: 02.01.2016

Jul 28 @ 12:19 PM ET
It’s so bad, I look at that roster and it’s like geez what happened here. Even with Hall.
- ClaudeFather

https://www.hockeybuzz.co...central/team.php?team=PHO
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Wedgie guy is the leader of the club here. You will not get him to speak like an actual adult.
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jul 28 @ 12:22 PM ET
It’s so bad, I look at that roster and it’s like geez what happened here. Even with Hall.
- ClaudeFather

I'm left scratching my head as to how some think William Nylander is overpaid at 6 X $6.9M , but Nick Schmaltz got a 7 X $5.85M deal.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 28 @ 12:23 PM ET
dont sign the contract if you are gonna weiner out shortly there after

What does this say to every future employer. Hey, I'm only here till I get something better. That legal agreement we signed means nothing.

Now most of these teams going to have to put in clawback and other terms to protect themselves. Should be punitive damages for situations where there clearly has been collaboration / tampering while under existing employment contracts.

- Gerk


To be fair, the rumor is that they gave him permission to explore other opportunities which is like business 101 - if you want to keep the best people, you've got to have them like you. If they say no, he's resentful and bolting as soon as he can. If they say yes, he still might leave, but that is the downside of owning the Coyotes and not a team no one would leave.



And he only quit on his contract after they balked at letting him do what they said he could do.

But even if that wasn't so, I hate when people play the loyalty card. The owner of the Coyotes is a multi billionaire and you don't get to that level by being loyal and having excellent principles. You literally have to ___ a lot of people over to get that high.

You know how many people with contracts who thought they had job security are fired every day by billionaires and millionaires? Me neither, but I'd bet everything I have that its more than the amount of non-billionaires who stiff billionaires on their contracts.




gergeswillems
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Malkin wants to be The Man, ON
Joined: 02.01.2016

Jul 28 @ 12:24 PM ET
I'm left scratching my head as to how some think William Nylander is overpaid at 6 X $6.9M , but Nick Schmaltz got a 7 X $5.85M deal.
- Atomic Wedgie

Clayton Keller will make $7.15 million next season. 17 goals. 27 assists. 44 points. 70 games.

Nick Schmaltz. 11 goals. 34 assists. 45 points. 70 games.

William Nylander. 31 goals. 28 assists. 59 points. 68 games.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 28 @ 12:26 PM ET
I'm left scratching my head as to how some think William Nylander is overpaid at 6 X $6.9M , but Nick Schmaltz got a 7 X $5.85M deal.
- Atomic Wedgie


Well, me too to be honest. But you have to look at the various situations - 1. only morons think the Nylander deal is bad. It's arguably one of the most team friendly in the NHL.


But 2. the Schmaltz contract is part of a strategy to overpay players in the short term and lock them into deals that will becomes team friendly with time. It's a gamble, but if you run Arizona and not Toronto, you have to make gambles like this to even the playing field. *(or at least try to).

The cap not going up really hurts the Coyotes foundational strategy.

This is also one place where the majority of "analytics people' don't like Chayka. According to them, you should never even try to sign players like Schmaltz, and spend your money exclusively on elite players.




Kooleus
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA (home of King Alex), CA
Joined: 11.17.2018

Jul 28 @ 12:27 PM ET
The NHL analytics community has disowned Chayka from the beginning, constantly being annoyed that he was their most prominent member from a media narrative standpoint, but following almost none of their beliefs.

You can look this up, there is a ton of stuff out there, it's not my job to prove anything to you.

As for St. Louis, I suggest you look up they logical fallacy of anecdotal evidence. One example doesn't mean (frank) all. If you want to compete every year in the NHL, it's almost impossible to do so without high-end players, which are nearly impossible to get if you don't win the draft lottery.

The Bruins had three players who were not high-end picks magically turn into three of the top players in the NHL. If this happens, you are right, you do not need a top draft pick.

Pierre Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have all somehow become players worthy of a #1 overall pick. But this rarely happens.

Nine of the last eleven Cup winners have had a top-two pick on their roster. The exceptions being Boston (see above) and the Blues, who won perhaps the flukiest cup of all time.

- James_Tanner


Give one specific decision by Chayka that this mythical "analyst" community thought was insane.

So St.Louis and Boston prove that you can be a perennial contender without a top 10 pick. The Caps won a Cup with Ovechkin, what was that, like 14 years after he was drafted. Arizona has had 8 top 10 picks since Ovechkin, 4 of them in the top 5, so what's their excuse? Bad drafting. Bad management. Bad trading.
Gerk
St Louis Blues
Location: say it aint so TARASENKO, YT
Joined: 01.07.2008

Jul 28 @ 12:28 PM ET
The NHL analytics community has disowned Chayka from the beginning, constantly being annoyed that he was their most prominent member from a media narrative standpoint, but following almost none of their beliefs.

You can look this up, there is a ton of stuff out there, it's not my job to prove anything to you.

As for St. Louis, I suggest you look up they logical fallacy of anecdotal evidence. One example doesn't mean (frank) all. If you want to compete every year in the NHL, it's almost impossible to do so without high-end players, which are nearly impossible to get if you don't win the draft lottery.

The Bruins had three players who were not high-end picks magically turn into three of the top players in the NHL. If this happens, you are right, you do not need a top draft pick.

Pierre Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have all somehow become players worthy of a #1 overall pick. But this rarely happens.

Nine of the last eleven Cup winners have had a top-two pick on their roster. The exceptions being Boston (see above) and the Blues, who won perhaps the flukiest cup of all time.

- James_Tanner



Petro was our last high end pick and that was like 12 years ago. Tarasenko, Schwartz, Thomas were all teens and 20s picks. Bulk of the rest of the in house talent is 2nd/ 3rd rounders. Dunn, Parayko, Binner, Allen, etc.

Sprinkle in some good trades. There you have it.

Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Wedgie guy is the leader of the club here. You will not get him to speak like an actual adult.
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jul 28 @ 12:30 PM ET
The NHL analytics community has disowned Chayka from the beginning, constantly being annoyed that he was their most prominent member from a media narrative standpoint, but following almost none of their beliefs.

You can look this up, there is a ton of stuff out there, it's not my job to prove anything to you.

- James_Tanner


Coyotes To Name Youngest GM In NHL History

According to multiple sources, John Chayka will be named the Coyotes GM today.

Besides naming the youngest GM ever, the Coyotes will be the first NHL team to be run by, and not just advised, by a person who's connection to the game is through analytics/advanced stats and not having played in the NHL previously.

Chayka is the co-founder of a company called Stathletes and was hired last year as the analytics adviser to the team, and has gone from being ignored by Don Maloney to taking his job. The Coyotes now appear to be a team on the leading edge of using analytics and it will so exciting to see how this works out.


I will be back with a full commentary later today, but, in the meantime it's at least safe to say that Nicklas Grossmann won't be resigned now. Praise be.

https://hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=76790

Oh, and how about this gem:

Furthermore, Chayka started a company whose proprietary way of tracking hockey games was good enough and far enough beyond the basic analytic tools I use to evaluate players that he was hired by an NHL team so that they could potentially be the only ones with access to his methods. This makes him essentially a #1 overall draft pick of management guys. Arguably a good manager is more important than a good player, so if you have him, and the wind happens to be blowing very hard in the direction of analytics anyways, it makes sense to lock him up, while you can.

https://hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=76801



Gerk
St Louis Blues
Location: say it aint so TARASENKO, YT
Joined: 01.07.2008

Jul 28 @ 12:32 PM ET
To be fair, the rumor is that they gave him permission to explore other opportunities which is like business 101 - if you want to keep the best people, you've got to have them like you. If they say no, he's resentful and bolting as soon as he can. If they say yes, he still might leave, but that is the downside of owning the Coyotes and not a team no one would leave.



And he only quit on his contract after they balked at letting him do what they said he could do.

But even if that wasn't so, I hate when people play the loyalty card. The owner of the Coyotes is a multi billionaire and you don't get to that level by being loyal and having excellent principles. You literally have to ___ a lot of people over to get that high.

You know how many people with contracts who thought they had job security are fired every day by billionaires and millionaires? Me neither, but I'd bet everything I have that its more than the amount of non-billionaires who stiff billionaires on their contracts.

- James_Tanner


Reputation matter, realistically its all that you have or can control. Acting like this will put off a lot a future employers.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 28 @ 12:33 PM ET
Clayton Keller will make $7.15 million next season. 17 goals. 27 assists. 44 points. 70 games.
- gergeswillems



Yes, if you ignore context just to make your own point, I guess I can see how that looks bad.

But an infinitely smarter way to look at this would be to say that Keller is 21 years old and locked up for his entire prime. If he becomes a star, that deal is going to look really cheap.

Sure, there is some risk because he didn't come close to earning that money this year. Then again, he was only paid 900 K this year and provided excellent value for that.

How far does Keller really have to go to be worth $8 million? He was worth 1.2 wins as a rookie, and .07 this year. (which is still better than 47% of the NHL).

The cap not going up is going to hurt the value of this deal, but it is a perfectly reasonable contract from a team's perspective. The risk is small compared to the potential reward.

Kevin Hayes is 28 signed for roughly the same, through age 36, and this year he had negative value. Actually hurt his team.

Hayes is typical of the kind of contracts most NHL teams have and sign. In comparison to these types of deals, all the Coyotes signings look great due to the much lower risk and higher potential reward.

ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 28 @ 12:35 PM ET
Yes, if you ignore context just to make your own point, I guess I can see how that looks bad.

But an infinitely smarter way to look at this would be to say that Keller is 21 years old and locked up for his entire prime. If he becomes a star, that deal is going to look really cheap.

Sure, there is some risk because he didn't come close to earning that money this year. Then again, he was only paid 900 K this year and provided excellent value for that.

How far does Keller really have to go to be worth $8 million? He was worth 1.2 wins as a rookie, and .07 this year. (which is still better than 47% of the NHL).

The cap not going up is going to hurt the value of this deal, but it is a perfectly reasonable contract from a team's perspective. The risk is small compared to the potential reward.

Kevin Hayes is 28 signed for roughly the same, through age 36, and this year he had negative value. Actually hurt his team.

Hayes is typical of the kind of contracts most NHL teams have and sign. In comparison to these types of deals, all the Coyotes signings look great due to the much lower risk and higher potential reward.

- James_Tanner

If you think Kevin Hayes hurt the Flyers this year then you are watching the wrong sport. Watch a damn game and stop just looking at your hand picked stats.
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 28 @ 12:36 PM ET
Give one specific decision by Chayka that this mythical "analyst" community thought was insane.

So St.Louis and Boston prove that you can be a perennial contender without a top 10 pick. The Caps won a Cup with Ovechkin, what was that, like 14 years after he was drafted. Arizona has had 8 top 10 picks since Ovechkin, 4 of them in the top 5, so what's their excuse? Bad drafting. Bad management. Bad trading.

- Kooleus


It's like watching a dog chase its tail. Funny, but also sad.
Adam French
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: add all u want but u will never win. torotno curse is alive. basketbal is king. another 52 years bef
Joined: 04.06.2011

Jul 28 @ 12:38 PM ET
Coyotes To Name Youngest GM In NHL History

According to multiple sources, John Chayka will be named the Coyotes GM today.

Besides naming the youngest GM ever, the Coyotes will be the first NHL team to be run by, and not just advised, by a person who's connection to the game is through analytics/advanced stats and not having played in the NHL previously.

Chayka is the co-founder of a company called Stathletes and was hired last year as the analytics adviser to the team, and has gone from being ignored by Don Maloney to taking his job. The Coyotes now appear to be a team on the leading edge of using analytics and it will so exciting to see how this works out.


I will be back with a full commentary later today, but, in the meantime it's at least safe to say that Nicklas Grossmann won't be resigned now. Praise be.

https://hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=76790

Oh, and how about this gem:

Furthermore, Chayka started a company whose proprietary way of tracking hockey games was good enough and far enough beyond the basic analytic tools I use to evaluate players that he was hired by an NHL team so that they could potentially be the only ones with access to his methods. This makes him essentially a #1 overall draft pick of management guys. Arguably a good manager is more important than a good player, so if you have him, and the wind happens to be blowing very hard in the direction of analytics anyways, it makes sense to lock him up, while you can.

https://hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=76801

- Atomic Wedgie

It wasn't real Analyticism.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Wedgie guy is the leader of the club here. You will not get him to speak like an actual adult.
Joined: 07.31.2006

Jul 28 @ 12:39 PM ET
Reputation matter, realistically its all that you have or can control. Acting like this will put off a lot a future employers.
- Gerk

There has always been an unwritten rule in the NHL that a team won't get in the way of a guy taking a higher position in another organization (i.e., assistant coach to coach, assistant GM to GM). Yes, there are exceptions to the rule, but I would point out that when it happens, it is notable.

But to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure if the same applies to a GM who wants to accept a different role (my wild guess is that Friedman's speculation of a "head of analytics for a multiple-sport company is the closest to the truth).

The good news is that it's going to get ugly, so at least we will all be entertained.

Go lawyers!
James Tanner
Arizona Coyotes
Joined: 12.21.2013

Jul 28 @ 12:39 PM ET
If you think Kevin Hayes hurt the Flyers this year then you are watching the wrong sport. Watch a damn game and stop just looking at your hand picked stats.
- ClaudeFather



Honest question:

Why do people like you attack people or find reasons to ignore them if you don't like what they say?


Hayes compares poorly to other players on other teams who play the same role as he does. His 5v5 offense is poor, his 5v5 defense is so-so, and his only real contributions are on the PP where you don't need to pay a player 8 million to get them.

The fact is, he plays a type of game that we have always been told makes a big impact, and so you believe that anyone who says differently must be an idiot, despite it turning out that when you measure things instead of guessing, players like Hayes just aren't that helpful.
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