Michael Stuart: Dorion's Best Trade: Closing Out the Second Round

david

the 1st rounder is at worst 15th overall - if Islanders lose to Panthers.

At best (meaning all the lower seeds beat the teams that didn't qualify in the 8 teams that automatically advanced, then I think Ottawa could get 8th.

IF the Islanders beat the Panthers, then I think the pick can be anywhere from 16-20 something. If Islanders lose in round 1 of the playoffs, that means the pick will likely be around 18-21; which is the most likely place for it to be

I ran the simulator 10x, here's the results (Ott pick, SJ pick)

(5, 1) (5, 6) (2, 5) (4, 1) (1, 5) (5, 3) (2, 4) (4, 5) (1, 4) (5, 1)


3.4 = Ott's pick. Most likely place for Ott's pick: 3rd overall
3.5 = SJ's pick. Most likely place for SJ's pick: 3rd-4th overall

Worst case, all 3 teams are not Ottawa or Det. So say this:

#1) Alexis Lafreniere - New Jersey Devils
#2) Quinton Byfield - Los Angeles Kings
#3) Tim Stutzle - Buffalo Sabres
#4) Lucas Raymond - Detriot Red Wings

Ottawa is on the clock with the next 2 picks. Who do you select?

If Ottawa comes in with a 5-6 draft result, I would be more than happy to take Rossi and Perfetti. Would I trade Rossi and Perfetti for Lafreniere...No!

However, the most probable outcome is a 3-4 combination for the Sens. If that is the outcome I would be happy to see them select Stutzle and Rossi.

The Senators' top two draft positions are now left to the lottery. There is little to be done on that front other than prepare a few scenarios. They will get two excellent to amazing picks. That is a done deal.

I think for the Senators to hit this draft out of the park they need to get that Islanders 1st upgraded via trade with the addition of some picks, prospects and/or cap management considerations. The glut of second round picks and the huge amount of cap room the Senators enjoy could be turned into something special. The scenario certainly depends on where the Isles' pick lands. If the Islanders miss on the play in GM Dorian has a huge opportunity to move up and select another high end player or to ensure they draft a player they have targeted.

The Senators' top two draft positions are now left to the lottery. There is little to be done on that front other than prepare a few scenarios. They will get two excellent to amazing picks. That is a done deal.

I think for the Senators to hit this draft out of the park they need to get that Islanders 1st upgraded via trade with the addition of some picks, prospects and/or cap management considerations. The glut of second round picks and the huge amount of cap room the Senators enjoy could be turned into something special. The scenario certainly depends on where the Isles' pick lands. If the Islanders miss on the play in GM Dorian has a huge opportunity to move up and select another high end player or to ensure they draft a player they have targeted.
- HoweHatrick

I was very big on this when the isles pick looked like it would be 21.

Still like the idea, but not as bullish on it. Still, if they could get it up to around 10, that would be amazing.

If NYI miss the playoffs the pick is in the 13-15 range unless NYI wins a lottery pick and Ottawa gets NYI's 2021 first rounder.

If NYI makes the playoffs the pick is in the 21-23 range unless they make the semi-finals and the pick drops to 28-31.

david

the 1st rounder is at worst 15th overall - if Islanders lose to Panthers.

At best (meaning all the lower seeds beat the teams that didn't qualify in the 8 teams that automatically advanced, then I think Ottawa could get 8th.

IF the Islanders beat the Panthers, then I think the pick can be anywhere from 16-20 something. If Islanders lose in round 1 of the playoffs, that means the pick will likely be around 18-21; which is the most likely place for it to be
- AlfieisKing

Thanks! I still like the idea of going after Quinn if the pick is around 12(and they don't trade up). I could see Doeion taking him or Zary at that spot.

Thanks! I still like the idea of going after Quinn if the pick is around 12(and they don't trade up). I could see Doeion taking him or Zary at that spot.
- david22

Agreed that it would be great to add Jack Quinn with the NYI pick.

Worst case, all 3 teams are not Ottawa or Det. So say this:

#1) Alexis Lafreniere - New Jersey Devils
#2) Quinton Byfield - Los Angeles Kings
#3) Tim Stutzle - Buffalo Sabres
#4) Lucas Raymond - Detriot Red Wings

Ottawa is on the clock with the next 2 picks. Who do you select?
- AlfieisKing

Rossi and Perfetti in my opinion. However, I think Drysdale could be ok too over Perfetti. I just really want Ottawa to get two strong forwards over defence right now. Holtz could be an ok option as well. Not too much buzz about him on these boards.

Rossi and Perfetti in my opinion. However, I think Drysdale could be ok too over Perfetti. I just really want Ottawa to get two strong forwards over defence right now. Holtz could be an ok option as well. Not too much buzz about him on these boards.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Both Holtz and Raymond had weak world junior tournaments and with everyone's season shortened they sis not have much of an opportunity to comeback from their showcase impressions. North American kids are much more easily forgiven than the Europeans. Heck Byfield hardly saw the ice.

Both Holtz and Raymond had weak world junior tournaments and with everyone's season shortened they sis not have much of an opportunity to comeback from their showcase impressions. North American kids are much more easily forgiven than the Europeans. Heck Byfield hardly saw the ice.
- spatso

Still strange to me people putting much stock into the World Juniors. it has it's place for scouting but I don't think its a proper tool for draft scouting. Granted it's really the only thing fans watch that isn't the NHL.

If Ottawa misses out on Byfield and Lafreniere I wouldn't be shocked to see them go off the board a bit. It will certainly be interesting.

Still strange to me people putting much stock into the World Juniors. it has it's place for scouting but I don't think its a proper tool for draft scouting. Granted it's really the only thing fans watch that isn't the NHL.

If Ottawa misses out on Byfield and Lafreniere I wouldn't be shocked to see them go off the board a bit. It will certainly be interesting.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

For myself being on a junior team can’t hurt a prospects draft stock but it can elevate it.

If a player excels it gives you a better idea as to how good a player is against equivalent competition or how nhl ready he is due to playing mostly D+1D+2 players.

For example how many player point totals in the ohl might be slightly inflated from playing the weaker teams of the league and their goalies who tend to be behind in development in relation to players. I think it would be safe to say some players padded their stats playing against north bay who’s starter had a 4.23 GAA

Still strange to me people putting much stock into the World Juniors. it has it's place for scouting but I don't think its a proper tool for draft scouting. Granted it's really the only thing fans watch that isn't the NHL.

If Ottawa misses out on Byfield and Lafreniere I wouldn't be shocked to see them go off the board a bit. It will certainly be interesting.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I'd love to see an analysis of players who had strong world juniors and how they translated to the Nhl.

You've got your karlssons of course.

I thought Middlstadt would compete for the Calder based on his WJ play.

Which is why I'm not a scout.

For myself being on a junior team can’t hurt a prospects draft stock but it can elevate it.

If a player excels it gives you a better idea as to how good a player is against equivalent competition or how nhl ready he is due to playing mostly D+1D+2 players.

For example how many player point totals in the ohl might be slightly inflated from playing the weaker teams of the league and their goalies who tend to be behind in development in relation to players. I think it would be safe to say some players padded their stats playing against north bay who’s starter had a 4.23 GAA
- RedC21

I don't really disagree. I just feel it's unfair to say a 17/18 year old kid played poorly in a tournament with a majority of the players month away from turning 20. But it is what it is.

Totally agree with the inflated junior numbers. Some of the stats of guys drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds are impressive, but simply because of the competition.

I'd love to see an analysis of players who had strong world juniors and how they translated to the Nhl.

You've got your karlssons of course.

I thought Middlstadt would compete for the Calder based on his WJ play.

Which is why I'm not a scout.
- david22

It would be interesting to see numbers. I'd like to see pre-draft stats of players. Once a guy is drafted, I feel evaluating their world juniors is fair game.

Thanks! I still like the idea of going after Quinn if the pick is around 12(and they don't trade up). I could see Doeion taking him or Zary at that spot.
- david22

The sens foundation allegedly ending ties with the club?

hAnyone else seeing this? What does this mean

"Worst case, all 3 teams are not Ottawa or Det. So say this:

#1) Alexis Lafreniere - New Jersey Devils
#2) Quinton Byfield - Los Angeles Kings
#3) Tim Stutzle - Buffalo Sabres
#4) Lucas Raymond - Detriot Red Wings

Ottawa is on the clock with the next 2 picks. Who do you select? "


Drysdale and Rossi (maybe Holtz). If the top 4 forwards are gone I don’t think the sens can pass on Drysdale and they need C more than W so Rossi would be my pick. I also don’t think the Kings pass on Drysdale if they have any pick after 2 so Stützle or Raymond would most likely be available at 5

The sens foundation allegedly ending ties with the club?

hAnyone else seeing this? What does this mean
- david22

They done.

It's crazy. Ian Mendes has good commentary. Suspects it has nothing to do with Covid or BLM (directly) but more differences with the club, which can only mean one thing....

I wrote a huge thing then my page F***ing went back.

Gord & 85, I saw your posts. It seems that your high on Perfetti and 85 would take Drysdale with the 5th pick.

For my 5-8 I would have: (5) Holtz (6) Drysdale (7) Sanderson (8) Rossi

Main points on raymond and holtz - they were 17.5 coming into a mens league season this year. With grow the sky's the limit, especially raymond. Shades of Patrick Kane and Erik Karlsson type of flash

I wrote a huge thing then my page F***ing went back.

Gord & 85, I saw your posts. It seems that your high on Perfetti and 85 would take Drysdale with the 5th pick.

For my 5-8 I would have: (5) Holtz (6) Drysdale (7) Sanderson (8) Rossi

Main points on raymond and holtz - they were 17.5 coming into a mens league season this year. With grow the sky's the limit, especially raymond. Shades of Patrick Kane and Erik Karlsson type of flash
- AlfieisKing

Brining up Sanderson is interesting. He has moved up rankings quite a bit. Would also be an interesting pick.

In all honesty, if we miss out on Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stuzle, I'll be quite disappointed. Perfetti, Raymond, and Rossi are fine as forward options, but they don't seem like they have the same ceiling as the others. Likewise with d-men like Drysdale and Sanderson. But then again, 3 years from now, outcomes could be very different.

I curious to why you aren't higher on Rossi? Especially to rank him after Sanderson?

Worst case, all 3 teams are not Ottawa or Det. So say this:

#1) Alexis Lafreniere - New Jersey Devils
#2) Quinton Byfield - Los Angeles Kings
#3) Tim Stutzle - Buffalo Sabres
#4) Lucas Raymond - Detriot Red Wings

Ottawa is on the clock with the next 2 picks. Who do you select?
- AlfieisKing

The no-brainer is picking Rossi at #5. It gets a bit more difficult at that point, as you could have highly divergent opinions on BPA between the likes of Drysdale, Holtz, or Perfetti. Personally, I'm not sold on Perfetti... there seem to be too many reported concerns regarding skating, intensity, and work ethic, which is an especially dangerous issue for an undersized forward (e.g. Rossi suffers from none of these concerns). Drysdale is probably the BPA, but I'd then like to see them strongly consider trading one of Brannstrom or Thomson to secure a high-end forward. If they can't do that effectively, then you have to think maybe it's just easier to draft Holtz as a high-potential sniper, which really is a glaring team need.

Brining up Sanderson is interesting. He has moved up rankings quite a bit. Would also be an interesting pick.

In all honesty, if we miss out on Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stuzle, I'll be quite disappointed. Perfetti, Raymond, and Rossi are fine as forward options, but they don't seem like they have the same ceiling as the others. Likewise with d-men like Drysdale and Sanderson. But then again, 3 years from now, outcomes could be very different.

I curious to why you aren't higher on Rossi? Especially to rank him after Sanderson?
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Great points.
I agree 100% - it is huge disappointment IMO as well if the Sens don't get 1 of A.L / Q.B / T.S.

With that said, for me, getting Holtz and Raymond would be a dream. They bring tons of chemistry, skill, and drive. I don't know if the ceiling is the same as Byfield or Stutzle, but I think with Raymond I could see him being one of the best players to come out of this draft. Frolunda is a great program and he has a flash about him that I haven't seen from a player at that age (but I'm not a scout)

On rossi - you bring up a good point. I guess I don't like smaller players and I'm biased that way, that said, if you ask me why I put Sanderson ahead of him is because I feel (at least right now) that he's the safer pick. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but I flip flop too. People are REALLY high on Rossi.

I saw him in 1 game (only 1 game) and I didn't see anything special. I was sitting very close to the ice, and saw him the PP. He was positionally sound and showed great chemistry with the D-men. Aside from that, he wasn't that noticeable during the game. Also I'm a huge lord of the rings fan, and when he stood beside Kevin Bahl, it looked like frodo standing next to gandolf - I swear