Kevin Allen: One key question must be answered before NHL play resume No matter hobyw well the NHL prepares, players are still at risk of testing positive for COVID-19

There's some excellent information. Thanks, Kevin. That's been my main question all along. What if a player tests positive for Corona? This not only affects the player but his teammates as well. Let's say it's the SCF and it's Bruins vs Blues. The Blues go up 3-1 in the series. Suddenly, Jordan Binnington tests positive for Corona. What happens?

He gets quarantined. But odds are most of his teammates are going to be diagnosed with it as well. Same for the Bruins players. If the SCF continues are the Bruins declared Cup champs by default? Does the NHL wait until both teams are declared Corona free and continue the SCF?

Where is the line drawn? I don't want to see the NHL making up rules on the fly. This doesn't benefit anyone. Take it a step further. What if a player gets Corona and dies from it? There will be lawsuits out the Ying-yang. There is potential for some real nightmare scenarios here.

There's some excellent information. Thanks, Kevin. That's been my main question all along. What if a player tests positive for Corona? This not only affects the player but his teammates as well. Let's say it's the SCF and it's Bruins vs Blues. The Blues go up 3-1 in the series. Suddenly, Jordan Binnington tests positive for Corona. What happens?

He gets quarantined. But odds are most of his teammates are going to be diagnosed with it as well. Same for the Bruins players. If the SCF continues are the Bruins declared Cup champs by default? Does the NHL wait until both teams are declared Corona free and continue the SCF?

Where is the line drawn? I don't want to see the NHL making up rules on the fly. This doesn't benefit anyone. Take it a step further. What if a player gets Corona and dies from it? There will be lawsuits out the Ying-yang. There is potential for some real nightmare scenarios here.
- gergeswillems

Great questions. There are reports coming out now about antibody testing in people that were never tested for Wuhan Flu. The results vary. One announced a day or 2 ago from Chelsea, MA (near Boston) showed that 200 people in "man on the street" testing conducted by Mass General doctors revealed that 66 (33%) people showed positive for antibodies. Other tests have shown very different results, though.

The truth is that we just don't know enough yet, but another month or 2 and we should know a lot more and be able to make better informed decisions. For example, the regular flu kills 40 to 60,000 per year with a fatality rate of 0.1%, and that's mostly vulnerable people with compromised immune systems much like Wuhan Virus. Even if the fatality rate of Wuhan virus is the same, it can still kill many more people simply because it's very contagious and more people will get it.

I think we can approach going back to "normal" in places where there are very few cases and begin the transition that way. It would help if an effective treatment regimen is developed that has a high success rate and that will buy time for a vaccine to be developed. Until then, it will be empty arenas if hockey is played again this season. As much as I miss hockey, though, I'm more worried about our economy and the millions of people that have lost their jobs and their businesses. There are health consequences associated with that, also, and they may be worse than this Wuhan virus ever will be. One of those losing their business may be me.

Great questions. There are reports coming out now about antibody testing in people that were never tested for Wuhan Flu. The results vary. One announced a day or 2 ago from Chelsea, MA (near Boston) showed that 200 people in "man on the street" testing conducted by Mass General doctors revealed that 66 (33%) people showed positive for antibodies. Other tests have shown very different results, though.

The truth is that we just don't know enough yet, but another month or 2 and we should know a lot more and be able to make better informed decisions. For example, the regular flu kills 40 to 60,000 per year with a fatality rate of 0.1%, and that's mostly vulnerable people with compromised immune systems much like Wuhan Virus. Even if the fatality rate of Wuhan virus is the same, it can still kill many more people simply because it's very contagious and more people will get it.

I think we can approach going back to "normal" in places where there are very few cases and begin the transition that way. It would help if an effective treatment regimen is developed that has a high success rate and that will buy time for a vaccine to be developed. Until then, it will be empty arenas if hockey is played again this season. As much as I miss hockey, though, I'm more worried about our economy and the millions of people that have lost their jobs and their businesses. There are health consequences associated with that, also, and they may be worse than this Wuhan virus ever will be. One of those losing their business may be me.
- Letterkenney

You bring up some valid points. There's just so many more questions than answers. I realize the NHL is hell bent on finishing this season. But does the cost outweigh the reward? I think it does. I understand the effects of the economy suffering. You can only walk that tightrope for so long. I hate seeing people out of work and I hate seeing families suffering. I don't think there is an easy answer here. As you said, much more will be known in 2 months. Information is power. I should say CORRECT information is power.

I don't want to see the NHL jump the gun here and throw the baby out with the bath water just so that we can see a team carrying the Cup around in September. It doesn't feel right to me. It feels wrong even. I love hockey but I don't need it THAT badly. My life will go on if the season is cancelled. And I'd say this even if I weren't a Red Wings fan.

I know the NHL and NHLPA will take proper measures if they continue this season. But I'm sorry. I just don't see how this makes any sense. I really do hope I'm wrong here. I don't want to see anyone die (or multiple people die) just to complete an NHL season. it's not worth it to me. I understand the NHL is a gate driven League and they need to generate revenue for the short and long term.

But it just seems to me like the NHL, more than the other 3 major sports leagues are fast tracking things. It's like they're running a marathon and burning all their energy the first 10 miles. Well what about the other 16? I keep reading about how there could be different types of strains of the corona virus. How it can possibly morph into different mutations. I'm not a scientist. I don't know. But I don't think the NHL does either.

Too many questions and not enough answers for my liking. Just because the Olympics are cancelled doesn't mean the NHL should be playing to capitalize on it. I guess I'll just hope and pray this doesn't blow up in the NHL's face. What does Peter Tessier always say? Hope is not a plan. He's right.

Both of you guys have an excellent grasp of the problem. No one has answers yet for what happens when there's a positive test and/or multiple positive tests. I read that the MLB is using a former CDC executive to advise them. We've all witnessed what happens when flu sweeps through the NHL and NBA. My concern is that we will be in the middle of the second round, and the teams from one series are both going to have players test positive. Based on what has been happening during the pandemic, everyone on both teams should be quarantined. I fear we could restart the season and then shut it down again. It sure feels like the Covid-19 is going to disrupt the NHL, one way or another, for parts of two seasons.

Both of you guys have an excellent grasp of the problem. No one has answers yet for what happens when there's a positive test and/or multiple positive tests. I read that the MLB is using a former CDC executive to advise them. We've all witnessed what happens when flu sweeps through the NHL and NBA. My concern is that we will be in the middle of the second round, and the teams from one series are both going to have players test positive. Based on what has been happening during the pandemic, everyone on both teams should be quarantined. I fear we could restart the season and then shut it down again. It sure feels like the Covid-19 is going to disrupt the NHL, one way or another, for parts of two seasons.
- Kevin Allen

Exactly. Wouldn't it be much worse to lose 2 seasons from Corona than 1? It just feels like the NHL is ram rodding things. I know they want badly to finish the season but I wish they'd take a more measured approach in trying to find solutions. It seems like each day the NHL comes up with different plans, schedules, scenarios for what happens next. The media and fans eat it up because...we all want hockey back right? There's nothing wrong with being prepared for "What if." But they should focus more on "What is right." I don't think the NHL is doing that right now.

Exactly. Wouldn't it be much worse to lose 2 seasons from Corona than 1? It just feels like the NHL is ram rodding things. I know they want badly to finish the season but I wish they'd take a more measured approach in trying to find solutions. It seems like each day the NHL comes up with different plans, schedules, scenarios for what happens next. The media and fans eat it up because...we all want hockey back right? There's nothing wrong with being prepared for "What if." But they should focus more on "What is right." I don't think the NHL is doing that right now.
- gergeswillems

I think the idea behind the NHL starting back up is NOT just the NHL and owners. It's also the players. I listened to a Spittin' Chiclets podcast with Kevin Hayes on it and he addressed this situation. He was very adamant about playing because of the financial impact on the players, particularly the lower end players that don't have the huge contracts. He said that he'll be fine and others that have the big contracts will also, but the sub million players will have troubles because the escrow hit to the NHLPA will be massive. The players WANT to play because of this. And the plans and scenarios may be changing because the information available keeps evolving.

That said, the NHL playing games seems like it's not really that important. But it is. I agree with you that hockey really isn't that important in the grand scheme of life from a personal perspective, but what about the people that are employed because of it? The arena workers. The parking lot attendants. The businesses and people that supply and support the arenas. The hotels and the travel people that support the teams. And the people and businesses that support those businesses. The economic costs extend WAAAYYY beyond just the NHL owners and players.

This is an intractable and very difficult issue to consider. I just shake my head thinking about it. At what point does the cost of the cure exceed the cost of the disease? I have no idea.

I think the idea behind the NHL starting back up is NOT just the NHL and owners. It's also the players. I listened to a Spittin' Chiclets podcast with Kevin Hayes on it and he addressed this situation. He was very adamant about playing because of the financial impact on the players, particularly the lower end players that don't have the huge contracts. He said that he'll be fine and others that have the big contracts will also, but the sub million players will have troubles because the escrow hit to the NHLPA will be massive. The players WANT to play because of this. And the plans and scenarios may be changing because the information available keeps evolving.

That said, the NHL playing games seems like it's not really that important. But it is. I agree with you that hockey really isn't that important in the grand scheme of life from a personal perspective, but what about the people that are employed because of it? The arena workers. The parking lot attendants. The businesses and people that supply and support the arenas. The hotels and the travel people that support the teams. And the people and businesses that support those businesses. The economic costs extend WAAAYYY beyond just the NHL owners and players.

This is an intractable and very difficult issue to consider. I just shake my head thinking about it. At what point does the cost of the cure exceed the cost of the disease? I have no idea.
- Letterkenney

I get it. Players want to play. It's what they know. They're like fish out of water right now. I also understand the economic impact on arena workers, parking lot attendants and all the businesses which are associated with the NHL. It's the trickle down effect. I just want caution to be exercised here. I'm a Packers fan. I loved Brett Favre and I love Aaron Rodgers. If I need one throw to win me a Super Bowl, I'm choosing Aaron Rodgers. Why? Because he throws many more touchdowns than interceptions.

You bring up some valid points. There's just so many more questions than answers. I realize the NHL is hell bent on finishing this season. But does the cost outweigh the reward? I think it does. I understand the effects of the economy suffering. You can only walk that tightrope for so long. I hate seeing people out of work and I hate seeing families suffering. I don't think there is an easy answer here. As you said, much more will be known in 2 months. Information is power. I should say CORRECT information is power.

I don't want to see the NHL jump the gun here and throw the baby out with the bath water just so that we can see a team carrying the Cup around in September. It doesn't feel right to me. It feels wrong even. I love hockey but I don't need it THAT badly. My life will go on if the season is cancelled. And I'd say this even if I weren't a Red Wings fan.

I know the NHL and NHLPA will take proper measures if they continue this season. But I'm sorry. I just don't see how this makes any sense. I really do hope I'm wrong here. I don't want to see anyone die (or multiple people die) just to complete an NHL season. it's not worth it to me. I understand the NHL is a gate driven League and they need to generate revenue for the short and long term.

But it just seems to me like the NHL, more than the other 3 major sports leagues are fast tracking things. It's like they're running a marathon and burning all their energy the first 10 miles. Well what about the other 16? I keep reading about how there could be different types of strains of the corona virus. How it can possibly morph into different mutations. I'm not a scientist. I don't know. But I don't think the NHL does either.

Too many questions and not enough answers for my liking. Just because the Olympics are cancelled doesn't mean the NHL should be playing to capitalize on it. I guess I'll just hope and pray this doesn't blow up in the NHL's face. What does Peter Tessier always say? Hope is not a plan. He's right.
- gergeswillems

Agreed with everything you wrote. This is just such a difficult situation to deal with but at some point life must march on with another risk added to the list of daily risks we all take in doing what we do by being alive. Only God knows when that point arrives, but I have a feeling it's not too far off.

BTW... thanks for the great discussion. It's not common in these types of forums.

Both of you guys have an excellent grasp of the problem. No one has answers yet for what happens when there's a positive test and/or multiple positive tests. I read that the MLB is using a former CDC executive to advise them. We've all witnessed what happens when flu sweeps through the NHL and NBA. My concern is that we will be in the middle of the second round, and the teams from one series are both going to have players test positive. Based on what has been happening during the pandemic, everyone on both teams should be quarantined. I fear we could restart the season and then shut it down again. It sure feels like the Covid-19 is going to disrupt the NHL, one way or another, for parts of two seasons.
- Kevin Allen

Thanks, Kevin. You're right, this is a very difficult problem that no one ever expected to be confronted with. Restarting and then shutting down the season could be a huge problem.

Agreed with everything you wrote. This is just such a difficult situation to deal with but at some point life must march on with another risk added to the list of daily risks we all take in doing what we do by being alive. Only God knows when that point arrives, but I have a feeling it's not too far off.

BTW... thanks for the great discussion. It's not common in these types of forums.
- Letterkenney

Agreed. Thank you as well. You're right. It's as rare as the Lions winning a Super Bowl! Sorry, Kevin! 😂

Agreed. Thank you as well. You're right. It's as rare as the Lions winning a Super Bowl! Sorry, Kevin! 😂
- gergeswillems

We have 3 rinks and a hotel WITHOUT having to step outside here in Buffalo. Not that that changes any of the concerns. Just saying it would be as close to ideal as possible.

These “plans” are all smoke and mirrors. The 19-20 season is over. Accept it and move on.

These “plans” are all smoke and mirrors. The 19-20 season is over. Accept it and move on.
- BiggE

Time will tell.

Time will tell.
- Letterkenney

Here is my reasoning:

1. Some players are going to balk at being sequestered for 2 months or more in a hotel. Some have pregnant wives, young children, etc... This is not like a 2 week extended road trip. A lot of players, especially those with wives and young kids, aren’t going to agree to this.

2. Players aside, we still need to consider coaches, trainers, medical staff, on ice officials, off ice officials; are they all going to be separated from their families and quarantined for months? Willingly? I very much doubt it.

3. The minute a player/coach/trainer gets a positive test then what? You pretty much will need to completely shut that team down for at least 2 weeks. Now what about the team they played the day before? It’s a snowball rolling downhill.

The best bet is to hope that they have a proven, viable treatment by October and a vaccine, if not yet mass produced (which is extremely unlikely) then at least tested & approved (which is very possible). At that point you could get camps and preseason with empty stadiums going in October and, as a vaccine begins getting to doctors and pharmacies, you can start letting the fans back in at some point during the season.

Trying to finish the 19-20 is just not worth the risk. To help the players, the owners should simply return the escrowed salary to them and keep the cap number the same for 20-21. To help the teams, each club should be allowed one penalty free buyout this summer. Finally for the draft, I’d do a 31 team lottery, with the following condition: no team can move up more than 15 spots from their current place in the overall standings based on points percentage. So if Boston were to win the lottery, they get the 16th pick. This prevents a top team from getting a premium pick and circumventing the system.

These “plans” are all smoke and mirrors. The 19-20 season is over. Accept it and move on.
- BiggE

Why do you think the League and PA are so desperate to get the season and playoffs done?

There’s $500M on the table. The cost of not getting that and losing up to $2.5B next year if they have to play a good chunk of season without fans is going to cost the league some franchises and be a huge hit for the PA.

Oh, and they care deeply about us, the fans. I expect to see some quite moving on ice salutes and ads. I know I’ll be touched.

Here is my reasoning:

1. Some players are going to balk at being sequestered for 2 months or more in a hotel. Some have pregnant wives, young children, etc... This is not like a 2 week extended road trip. A lot of players, especially those with wives and young kids, aren’t going to agree to this.

2. Players aside, we still need to consider coaches, trainers, medical staff, on ice officials, off ice officials; are they all going to be separated from their families and quarantined for months? Willingly? I very much doubt it.

3. The minute a player/coach/trainer gets a positive test then what? You pretty much will need to completely shut that team down for at least 2 weeks. Now what about the team they played the day before? It’s a snowball rolling downhill.

The best bet is to hope that they have a proven, viable treatment by October and a vaccine, if not yet mass produced (which is extremely unlikely) then at least tested & approved (which is very possible). At that point you could get camps and preseason with empty stadiums going in October and, as a vaccine begins getting to doctors and pharmacies, you can start letting the fans back in at some point during the season.

Trying to finish the 19-20 is just not worth the risk. To help the players, the owners should simply return the escrowed salary to them and keep the cap number the same for 20-21. To help the teams, each club should be allowed one penalty free buyout this summer. Finally for the draft, I’d do a 31 team lottery, with the following condition: no team can move up more than 15 spots from their current place in the overall standings based on points percentage. So if Boston were to win the lottery, they get the 16th pick. This prevents a top team from getting a premium pick and circumventing the system.
- BiggE

You may be right. I think that it's a matter of risk/reward at this point. And as time marches on and more knowledge about this thing becomes known, the lower the risk becomes. Further, the incredible amount of money and focus on solving this problem will yield benefits either in the form of a vaccine or an effective treatment.

But, the fact is that this virus is here to stay. And, the most vulnerable among us should continue to avoid behaviors that could lead to contracting the virus. Ultimately, life must march on. The economic costs of continued shut down will likely kill more people than the virus ever will. The social pathologies of poverty are far more dangerous. The key is finding that middle ground and right now we don't have it. But we should find that soon. I pray.

In theory players, coaches, staff, and refs could be kept in isolation individually first for two weeks and then, provided that they test negative, could be joined together in sequestered teams for the playoffs. This would likely eliminate any chance of the virus (or any other illness, for that matter) popping up later while games are being played.

However, I agree that players would not like this and I think it would be difficult to do this in such a way that everyone would be happy about it.

Kevin Allen: One key question must be answered before NHL play resume
No matter hobyw well the NHL prepares, players are still at risk of testing positive for COVID-19
- Kevin Allen

After reading this, I'm against total isolation now. I think this season is going to happen after reading this report. https://thehill.com/opini...d-end-the-total-isolation

Protecting people in nursing homes is not easy. Staff have contact with the outside world. They accidently introduce the virus into the homes. How can this be stopped? More and better protective gear, sounds good. No guarantee though No contact with families until a vaccine? Are families going to do that? It sounds good on paper to protect the vulnerable, in reality it's complex and difficult.

After reading this, I'm against total isolation now. I think this season is going to happen after reading this report. https://thehill.com/opini...d-end-the-total-isolation
- just69sayin

Just a word to the wise. John Iannides, one of the Stanford professors on the Stanford report linkedon ths site you posted, is largely treated as a crackpot in the epidemiological world. Jay Bhattacharya is his protege.

That study was widely derided.

https://undark.org/2020/0...id-19-death-rate-critics/

There's some excellent information. Thanks, Kevin. That's been my main question all along. What if a player tests positive for Corona? This not only affects the player but his teammates as well.
- gergeswillems

I don't think this is as big a concern as you might think. I have written several times about this on the Flyers thread couple of weeks or so back, and here is the gist of what I was saying:


1. Testing:
1. Tests must be rapid.
2. Tests must be accurate (for now, this means NOT made in China)
3. Tests must be cheap in price and sufficiently plentiful to not raise the ire of rest of society.

2. Quarantine:

A. Player responsibility
We start with a pool of tested players and support staff, then sequester them to a point of mutual acceptance (league and NHLPA). Sure, some players might balk. Fine, leave them out if it comes to that. If too many players object, no dice.Call things off.

It is critical that players and league enforce social quarantine very strictly. Players should understand that if they break quarantine, they are endangering not just themselves but also their team. Presumably, those players who agreed are going in with eyes wide open as this is what they signed up to.

B. Enforcement of quarantine.
This is actually going to be quite easy. Players can be utterly insulated from most of society if they are so willing.Technology and resources exist.

3. If someone tests positive.

The slowest time I have seen that antibodies show up is 2 days. Keep testing every two days. Eliminate all those who test +. The others by definition are clear. Allow unlimited black aces. Move forward with the rest.

Players have to accept a new normal: that they have to accept very strict quarantine, and play to empty stadiums and so on. Fans have to accept their team may get eliminated from playoffs because of medical reasons.

I am not saying this is is easy or ideal, but I believe the logistical difficulties are being significantly overstated. The issue is not the feasibility of this, but the psychological acceptance on the part of all involved whether to go through with it or not.