James Tanner: Handicapping the Pacific Division Playoff Race

There is no playoff race that involves the coyotes!

Vegas - they're deserving of mention with Toronto, Washington, Tampa and Boston. Goaltending aside, they should be the best team in the West, and I think they'll win the division.
- James_Tanner

I’m curious James, why should Vegas be better than either St. Louis or Colorado?

Yep Vancouver and Calgary are terrible - gtfo - your columns are a joke.

Must be hard to dislike the Canucks so much to deny that they will finish ahead of the coyotes. That goaltending level you’re hoping to get back to is what we’re getting arguably out of both goalies.

You like fancy numbers that clearly tell the whole story so let me number you why the Flames will win the division. It's actually the most important of the numbers. Schedule. When you play good teams, all your numbers trend downwards, and trend up against bad teams.

Up to this point in the season, which four teams have had the easiest schedule in the entire league? It just happens to be the three teams in the Pacific ahead of the Flames and the Coyotes. The Flames are smack dab in the middle when it comes to strength of schedule so far.

From here on out, the Flames have by far the easiest schedule left in the Pacific and will feast on the crappy teams, and all their fancy numbers will go up so you'll like them again.

http://powerrankingsguru..../strength-of-schedule.php

Well, if there's a blogger on this site who knows everything there is to know about handicapping mentally it's you Jimmy.

You like fancy numbers that clearly tell the whole story so let me number you why the Flames will win the division. It's actually the most important of the numbers. Schedule. When you play good teams, all your numbers trend downwards, and trend up against bad teams.

Up to this point in the season, which four teams have had the easiest schedule in the entire league? It just happens to be the three teams in the Pacific ahead of the Flames and the Coyotes. The Flames are smack dab in the middle when it comes to strength of schedule so far.

From here on out, the Flames have by far the easiest schedule left in the Pacific and will feast on the crappy teams, and all their fancy numbers will go up so you'll like them again.

http://powerrankingsguru..../strength-of-schedule.php
- Hunkulese

book the division champions banner now

I’m curious James, why should Vegas be better than either St. Louis or Colorado?
- Wildschwein

Because they have way better 5v5 stats than either team. Colorado especially is a bit of a paper tiger.

Goalies will always make the biggest difference, and you can't really predict how they'll do, but the skaters on Vegas are better than on St Loius (esp. without Tarasenko) and the Avs.

Yep Vancouver and Calgary are terrible - gtfo - your columns are a joke.
- deuce22

They are terrible, for now.

Vancouver will be good in a year or two though.

They are terrible, for now.

Vancouver will be good in a year or two though.
- James_Tanner

just curious, on what are you basing this?

Must be hard to dislike the Canucks so much to deny that they will finish ahead of the coyotes. That goaltending level you’re hoping to get back to is what we’re getting arguably out of both goalies.
- neem55

The Canucks are a bad team propped up by good goaltending. I don't think that's a controversial opinion, they've got some awesome building blocks, but they really woulda been smarter to hang on their their picks and wait for another year. Miller has had a good year, but I hope its lottery protected.

How can you say VAncouver is terrible when they are leading in almost every stat in the division?

I know you write for the Yotes but you can't tell me they are better than the Canucks right now and will finish ahead of them by April. The yotes have ONE player in the top 77 of the scoring leaders. I dont care what league you are in. You will not be a playoff team without a top 30 scorer in the league. Our top six are out scoring your top six by quite a large margin. So to call us terrible is a little overboard to say the least.

just curious, on what are you basing this?
- Codes1087

Van Team stats

Corsi for % 21st
shots-for % 25th
expected goals % 24th
scoring chances % 26th
high danger scoring chance% 19th

5v5 save percentage: 12th

PDO 9th


When a team out performs its stats, and the goaltending is ranked higher than everything else, it's likely not a sustainable performance.

If the team outperforms their goaltending, that is good for future performance.

The Canucks are a bad team propped up by good goaltending. I don't think that's a controversial opinion, they've got some awesome building blocks, but they really woulda been smarter to hang on their their picks and wait for another year. Miller has had a good year, but I hope its lottery protected.
- James_Tanner

Miller's good year would be your best point producer by a large margin.

How can you say VAncouver is terrible when they are leading in almost every stat in the division?

I know you write for the Yotes but you can't tell me they are better than the Canucks right now and will finish ahead of them by April. The yotes have ONE player in the top 77 of the scoring leaders. I dont care what league you are in. You will not be a playoff team without a top 30 scorer in the league. Our top six are out scoring your top six by quite a large margin. So to call us terrible is a little overboard to say the least.
- Itsjustarash

I just want to say that I believe that the Canucks are a better team than the Coyotes, goalies aside. I don't think either team is very good. They are both being propped up by their respective goalies.

The team with Peterson and Hughes is going to be a lot better in the future.

For a team that's gone 14-3-1 over their last 18 games played. They sure are terrible.

Van Team stats

Corsi for % 21st
shots-for % 25th
expected goals % 24th
scoring chances % 26th
high danger scoring chance% 19th

5v5 save percentage: 12th

PDO 9th


When a team out performs its stats, and the goaltending is ranked higher than everything else, it's likely not a sustainable performance.

If the team outperforms their goaltending, that is good for future performance.
- James_Tanner

to me this is just a bunch of cherry picked analytics.

Canucks are:
7th in goals for
13 in goals against
8th in GF/GP
7th ranked PP
13th ranked PK
1st in faceoffs
6th in goal +/- differential

none of these constitute a title like "terrible" and these too are just a few hand picked.

I think the one thing we can all agree on is it's a little surprising Calgary is where they are in the standings while having a double digit negative goal differential. Think what you will about other stats, you need to get more than you give up to win games.

Is this your April Fools blog?

Its because Monohan and Gaudreau have basically been non existent and if they were contributing everything would be a hell of a lot better and also Hanafin is having a terrible year.

[]

book the division champions banner now

I was unsure that "schedule" was a number until now

I was unsure that "schedule" was a number until now
- NewYorkNuck

just curious, on what are you basing this?
- Codes1087

I was unsure that "schedule" was a number until now
- NewYorkNuck

You must be new to sports or reading.