Michael Stuart: Emptying the (Enormous) Mailbag

Steve asks: Which Senator prospect has taken the largest step forward, and which has taken the largest step back this season?

Jonathan Gruden becoming a point-per-game player in London this year after a middling college season last year has been a nice development. On the flip side, does Filip Chlapik still count as a prospect? It’s not that he’s taken a step back, per se, but rather that he just hasn’t taken the kind of stride forward that the organization likely wanted to see.

for my money......

largest step forward has to be Norris. after his injury last year, to come in like this and be as dominant as he has, especially for a 1st year pro, is nothing short of astounding. I knew he was going to be good, didn't think he'd be this good this fast.

largest step back....... for me this is Davidsson. there was a lot of hype about this kid having a legit shot at cracking the top 9 in the NHL heading into training camp, and now he can barely even get into the lineup in the AHL. He seems to have gone from highly touted to almost forgotten in less than half a season

Michael Stuart: Emptying the (Enormous) Mailbag
- Michael_Stuart

Nobody wants to see your enormous bag, Michael.

I think the best trade the Leafs can make is for Ron Hainsey (or a similar kind of character player). They have core leadership issues and a need to modify their style of play.

Leafs are now 4 full points behind Florida and fading fast.

Leaf roster has been directly modelled to achieve success from analytics. Management assumed analytic success would translate into team victories. But, teams have figured out how to exploit them. Essentially, the more you allow the Leafs to dominate on puck possession, the more vulnerable they become on the counter attack. Leafs have actually allowed more goals than the Sens.

If the Leafs are going to make the playoffs they need to get the entire team to buy into the need for team defence. Puck possession without team defence is like a great boxer who unfortunately has a glass jaw.

Hainsey is already known to the room and has an inside reputation and gravitas to help the Leafs modify their style. Those forwards need to come back and help on defence.

Thanks for taking the time to answer my question.

Also, I'd be cool with Ennis, but we really could use a Borowiecki.

for my money......

largest step forward has to be Norris. after his injury last year, to come in like this and be as dominant as he has, especially for a 1st year pro, is nothing short of astounding. I knew he was going to be good, didn't think he'd be this good this fast.

largest step back....... for me this is Davidsson. there was a lot of hype about this kid having a legit shot at cracking the top 9 in the NHL heading into training camp, and now he can barely even get into the lineup in the AHL. He seems to have gone from highly touted to almost forgotten in less than half a season
- sensarmy_11

Yeah, Norris has been phenomenal.

I'll be honest on Davidsson - I'm not at the stage where I'm completely disappointed yet. He's sort of been forced into a tough role in Belleville with so many forward prospects down there, so the lack of success (to me anyways) isn't necessarily indicative of there being no step forward. I'll be interested to see what he does once the trade deadline passes and the logjam frees up a bit.

Yeah, Norris has been phenomenal.

I'll be honest on Davidsson - I'm not at the stage where I'm completely disappointed yet. He's sort of been forced into a tough role in Belleville with so many forward prospects down there, so the lack of success (to me anyways) isn't necessarily indicative of there being no step forward. I'll be interested to see what he does once the trade deadline passes and the logjam frees up a bit.
- Michael_Stuart

my concern with Davidsson isn't the lack of success, it's the lack of even getting into the lineup. even considering his brief NHL call up, he's only gotten into 18 games in Belleville this year, of the 42 ( I think) that they've played.

Nobody wants to see your enormous bag, Michael.
- BINGO!

That’s where you’re wrong buddy.

That’s where you’re wrong buddy.
- Feds91Stammer

That’s where you’re wrong buddy.
- Feds91Stammer

I like the effort. Thanks Michael!

I think the priority at the trade deadline should be trading anyone that:
A) Can add assets that can be useful in a rebuild
B) Will not be in their prime by the time this team should be able to be competitive again

When you look at it that way, Duclair really is really the only UFA that is outside these parameters. So worth signing him if the price is right. Although, he could command a decent package at the deadline.

It would be nice to keep Boro and Pag for fan favs but the management/ownership flush that ideology down the toilet year after year. Why do it for these guys of all players?

People will also argue that the team needs veteran leadership. This can easily be brought in via free agency similar to Ron Hainsy who was instantly slapped with the ‘A’. Also, don’t forget the current young players will be one year older and more ready to ‘lead’ in some aspects of the game. Finally, there are still a few ugly contracts with older players who can be slotted into that role.

If Dorion can get one more 1st rounder and a few more 2-4 round picks or younger players, it will be a successful trade deadline.

Any chance the Sens fall to last place?

Any chance the Sens fall to last place?
- spazzbot

No

I like the effort. Thanks Michael!



It would be nice to keep Boro and Pag for fan favs but the management/ownership flush that ideology down the toilet year after year. Why do it for these guys of all players?.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

The only player i can think of in last few years,they missed the mark on . Is Mark Stone. So imo Pageau should be a keeper at a reasonable cost (5 ×5) or less. He adds veteran quality,long time sen,his style of never give up play . Would all add up to a net positive for the next 5 years. Where the 1 more pick could just be a gamble and is more of a 0 gain scenario for next 5 years. I know the more picks you have the more likely you are to hit at least once. Right now they have many prospects and picks. Reality is they wont be able to or want to sign them all.

It would be nice to keep Boro and Pag for fan favs but the management/ownership flush that ideology down the toilet year after year. Why do it for these guys of all players?

- Gord_Wilson_2.0

The issue with Duchene, Karlsson and Stone to a lesser degree is that their contract terms extend 7-8 years when their play is likely to have significantly declined. Also, either of them would impact the ability to bottom out and get top 5 picks in the draft.

Pageau and Borowiecki are high character, high compete players who can stabilize the team and act as role models. The term for Borowiecki would likely be 2 years, maybe 3. Pageau would likely have a 3 to 5 year term for his next contract - while a 3 year term would be ideal for the Senators.

I agree with Michael that Demelo and Borowiecki would be the ideal players to sign to extensions. I am a big fan of Pageau and would be fine with a 3-4 year deal but wouldn't be opposed to trading him, especially if it includes a first round pick coming back.

The only player i can think of in last few years,they missed the mark on . Is Mark Stone. So imo Pageau should be a keeper at a reasonable cost (5 ×5) or less. He adds veteran quality,long time sen,his style of never give up play . Would all add up to a net positive for the next 5 years. Where the 1 more pick could just be a gamble and is more of a 0 gain scenario for next 5 years. I know the more picks you have the more likely you are to hit at least once. Right now they have many prospects and picks. Reality is they wont be able to or want to sign them all.
- spazzbot

5x5 is not reasonable for Pageau IMO. if what he's doing this year was the norm, then fine, but this season is an absolute outlier for him. yes, he's an exceptional defensive forward and a solid leader, but he's a 10g 25pt guy....that's not worth 5x5

if it's between Pageau and Boro, and I can't believe i'm saying this, i'd keep boro. I think it's obvious that he's much more influential in the locker room and the community, and unlike pageau, you can probably get him signed for 2-3 years at about 1.5-2 mil per year

The arguments for Boro and Pag are fine but don’t hold any water because the organization has not let similar arguments for a variety of players hold significant weight.

I can see Boro being retained because he would likely be cheap and we have fewer defensive prospects ready for prime time but Pag getting a similar deal to White makes almost no sense. Not really a problem now but having over 10 million in two 3rd line centres will become a problem in 2-4 years. One guy will def be on the decline (Pag) and one guy may be just playing out the contract (White - if this year is any indication).

Edmonton wouldn’t give up a first rd pick for Hall they won’t give one up for Pageau. If the deal were to happen it would be focused around Puljujarvi plus a 2nd probably. My guess Ottawa wants more and Edmonton won’t overpay for a rental. I think Pageau would be perfect on the Oilers 3rd line though.

Edmonton wouldn’t give up a first rd pick for Hall they won’t give one up for Pageau. If the deal were to happen it would be focused around Puljujarvi plus a 2nd probably. My guess Ottawa wants more and Edmonton won’t overpay for a rental. I think Pageau would be perfect on the Oilers 3rd line though.
- BleedOil06

Puljujarvi plus a 1st for Pageau and the Sens second round pick.

Could be as little as Ottawa moving up only 8 places or so but both teams could sell the deal to their fan bases.

The arguments for Boro and Pag are fine but don’t hold any water because the organization has not let similar arguments for a variety of players hold significant weight.

I can see Boro being retained because he would likely be cheap and we have fewer defensive prospects ready for prime time but Pag getting a similar deal to White makes almost no sense. Not really a problem now but having over 10 million in two 3rd line centres will become a problem in 2-4 years. One guy will def be on the decline (Pag) and one guy may be just playing out the contract (White - if this year is any indication).
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

We have to assume Dorion knows the players and team better then all of us combined. In retrospect most of the moves hold water.
The ceiling is potentially higher for white despite this season and in " 2-4 " years there would be only a year or 2 left on the Pageau contract,so even that would not be a problem. At some point,and i do believe this trade deadline is it. The Sens have to start building the team they want. They cant be in permanent prospect,pick and developement mode. Do we really want to repeat the Oilers strategy?
That said if Pageau goes , so be it. Imo it wont help but wont be the move that ends all.

Edmonton wouldn’t give up a first rd pick for Hall they won’t give one up for Pageau. If the deal were to happen it would be focused around Puljujarvi plus a 2nd probably. My guess Ottawa wants more and Edmonton won’t overpay for a rental. I think Pageau would be perfect on the Oilers 3rd line though.

I agree that Pageau for a first is a bit of an overpayment, but it's that type of overpayment one sees almost every year at the deadline.

I also agree he'd fit in quite nicely on Edmonton's third line, but then i'd have to grapple with wanting the pick to be high, and cheering on Pageau and the oilers.

5x5 is not reasonable for Pageau IMO. if what he's doing this year was the norm, then fine, but this season is an absolute outlier for him. yes, he's an exceptional defensive forward and a solid leader, but he's a 10g 25pt guy....that's not worth 5x5

if it's between Pageau and Boro, and I can't believe i'm saying this, i'd keep boro. I think it's obvious that he's much more influential in the locker room and the community, and unlike pageau, you can probably get him signed for 2-3 years at about 1.5-2 mil per year
- sensarmy_11

Spot on.

It would be the wrong move to keep Pageau. Pageau will be huge for any playoff team trying to take the next step.
For us, not so much.

Not to mention the centers available at this deadline are slim, which works in our favor.

The team couldn’t/didn’t retain the more important pieces in Karlsson/stone, they shouldn’t retain JGP, a player we probably have in our farm system.

Boro could be valuable to a bunch of teams looking for toughness and depth...I’m not opposed to dealing him

my Tankathon lottery chance for today was San Jose (up 5) at #1 and Ottawa (down 3) at #6. How about Lafrenniere and Perfetti?

Lafreniere and Drysdale would be a nice haul.