James Tanner: Thoughts Around the League (Standings, Sweden, Trades)

Canucks > Oilers > Coyotes

Yea def can’t figure out Islanders coaching has prob nothing to do with it

Canucks > Oilers > Coyotes
- Pacificgem

I don't know if I agree with that. Ultimately, the Oilers have the two best players on any of those teams.

Yea def can’t figure out Islanders coaching has prob nothing to do with it
- Just5

The value of a coach in a professional league is massively overrated. The NHL's best player - Connor McDavid - is worth a maximum of 4 wins in his career year, so to credit the Islanders exclusively to their coach would be to say that Trotz has a bigger impact than the best player in the NHL.

I'm not sure I can buy that. I think we are watching a league with a salary cap that has nearly full parity and where goalies make a ridiculous difference in the game. Luck plays a big part too. It will be interesting to see where this goes.

The value of a coach in a professional league is massively overrated. The NHL's best player - Connor McDavid - is worth a maximum of 4 wins in his career year, so to credit the Islanders exclusively to their coach would be to say that Trotz has a bigger impact than the best player in the NHL.

I'm not sure I can buy that. I think we are watching a league with a salary cap that has nearly full parity and where goalies make a ridiculous difference in the game. Luck plays a big part too. It will be interesting to see where this goes.
- James_Tanner

Luck certainly plays a part in pro sports, and more so in hockey than most others. Yet the Islanders success cannot (and should not) be solely attributed to luck.

Trotz has been at the helm for 97 games now. In that span the Islanders are 59-30-7 with a +45 goal differential.

That’s without Tavares.

That’s with 3 different goaltenders who receive almost equal numbers of starts.

That’s while placing 22nd in PP opportunities for last season, and 31st so far this season.

Luck certainly plays a part in pro sports, and more so in hockey than most others. Yet the Islanders success cannot (and should not) be solely attributed to luck.

Trotz has been at the helm for 97 games now. In that span the Islanders are 59-30-7 with a +45 goal differential.

That’s without Tavares.

That’s with 3 different goaltenders who receive almost equal numbers of starts.

That’s while placing 22nd in PP opportunities for last season, and 31st so far this season.
- Wildschwein

Barry is going to go down as an all time great coach. He has won everywhere and would have won a Cup with the Preds if they were not so cheap. Barry has some nice dmen to work with on the Islanders and Barry has a great system and can fall out coach defense. Barry is winning with pretty much Garth and Cappy's roster. Isles need another big offensive player to go with Barzal so they would not be considered a big threat to win the Cup yet. Coaching is a huge factor in hockey.

Luck certainly plays a part in pro sports, and more so in hockey than most others. Yet the Islanders success cannot (and should not) be solely attributed to luck.

Trotz has been at the helm for 97 games now. In that span the Islanders are 59-30-7 with a +45 goal differential.

That’s without Tavares.

That’s with 3 different goaltenders who receive almost equal numbers of starts.

That’s while placing 22nd in PP opportunities for last season, and 31st so far this season.
- Wildschwein

I agree that Trotz has been magnificent - when you consider what he's done with a roster virtually everyone agreed was bottom-of-the-league, it's impressive. However, a coach alone cannot account for this.

Add in the fact they've completely defied the analytics and that the probability of them winning as much as they have was very low, I think luck is a bigger factor than coaching.

Goaltending is the biggest factor.

I would not consider the Islanders as a threat to win the Cup, and I would still expect their numbers to normalize over time. There is routinely a team every year that defies their roster and their numbers to make the playoffs. That such a team could come out of the game hot is not impossible.

Hell, maybe the Islanders are the exception to every rule we know about how hockey works. It's not impossible. Just unlikely. If I can figure out how to get money on a gambling site, I will put $300 on them missing the playoffs, if a prop bet like that can still be made.

Casual fans don't grasp the importance of coaching. It's also not just X and O's ...but fostering the right culture, inspiring guys to sacrifice for the team. People that actually played the game at a competitive level understand that.

Or maybe Tanner is correct?

Decide for yourselves.

I agree that Trotz has been magnificent - when you consider what he's done with a roster virtually everyone agreed was bottom-of-the-league, it's impressive. However, a coach alone cannot account for this.

Add in the fact they've completely defied the analytics and that the probability of them winning as much as they have was very low, I think luck is a bigger factor than coaching.

Goaltending is the biggest factor.

I would not consider the Islanders as a threat to win the Cup, and I would still expect their numbers to normalize over time. There is routinely a team every year that defies their roster and their numbers to make the playoffs. That such a team could come out of the game hot is not impossible.

Hell, maybe the Islanders are the exception to every rule we know about how hockey works. It's not impossible. Just unlikely. If I can figure out how to get money on a gambling site, I will put $300 on them missing the playoffs, if a prop bet like that can still be made.
- James_Tanner

No need to use a gambling site James. I’ll make a friendly wager with you if you’re willing.

Lou is a terrible GM? Yet everywhere he goes, his teams develop winning mentalities.

How do you explain this?

The Lou effect is real and has a long history so I don't get how anyone can say he is a poopty GM if his teams turn into successful franchises.

I look at a coach like Gerard Gallant, he is a really good coach and Florida never should have fired him.
Just look at what he has done with Vegas, you take Gallant away from them and I don't think they are as good as they are. The defense they have is not very good but yet they have a great team chemistry and I think most of that is owed to the culture Gallant has brought in.

I agree that Trotz has been magnificent - when you consider what he's done with a roster virtually everyone agreed was bottom-of-the-league, it's impressive. However, a coach alone cannot account for this.

Add in the fact they've completely defied the analytics and that the probability of them winning as much as they have was very low, I think luck is a bigger factor than coaching.

Goaltending is the biggest factor.

I would not consider the Islanders as a threat to win the Cup, and I would still expect their numbers to normalize over time. There is routinely a team every year that defies their roster and their numbers to make the playoffs. That such a team could come out of the game hot is not impossible.

Hell, maybe the Islanders are the exception to every rule we know about how hockey works. It's not impossible. Just unlikely. If I can figure out how to get money on a gambling site, I will put $300 on them missing the playoffs, if a prop bet like that can still be made.
- James_Tanner

Lou is a terrible GM? Yet everywhere he goes, his teams develop winning mentalities.

How do you explain this?

The Lou effect is real and has a long history so I don't get how anyone can say he is a poopty GM if his teams turn into successful franchises.
- SolGoode

I'm upset the Islander missed on Panarin and other FA's but this does not make Lou a lousy GM. Isles need another star forward to go with Barzal and maybe some more work to the forwards but Lou has not been Islander GM for 10 years.

No need to use a gambling site James. I’ll make a friendly wager with you if you’re willing.
- Wildschwein

I don't know what kind of odds I can get though, they just one 10 in a row, I might be able to get like 10-1

Lou is a terrible GM? Yet everywhere he goes, his teams develop winning mentalities.

How do you explain this?

The Lou effect is real and has a long history so I don't get how anyone can say he is a poopty GM if his teams turn into successful franchises.
- SolGoode

Starting when he gave Kovalchuck 17 years, he's been awful. He left a terrible mess behind in Toronto and the contracts he's handed out on the Island have been really, really bad.

I look at a coach like Gerard Gallant, he is a really good coach and Florida never should have fired him.
Just look at what he has done with Vegas, you take Gallant away from them and I don't think they are as good as they are. The defense they have is not very good but yet they have a great team chemistry and I think most of that is owed to the culture Gallant has brought in.
- SolGoode

Good coaches aren't worth more wins per season than Connor McDavid, is my point. If you take every qualified NHL coach, the difference between say Randy Carlyle and Barry Trotz is only going to be a few wins.

I don't know what kind of odds I can get though, they just one 10 in a row, I might be able to get like 10-1
- James_Tanner

You might.

If not, I’d be willing to make a simple $250 wager with you that the Islanders DO make the playoffs.

Umm, 10-1 odds on NYI to miss the playoffs. Clearly you guys don't wager professionally. You'll never get that. Far, far lower. I wonder if the pros also think coaching means nothing? Haha. So funny.

You might.

If not, I’d be willing to make a simple $250 wager with you that the Islanders DO make the playoffs.
- Wildschwein

They won ten in a row, I wouldn't take even money for it. Thanks anyways.

Umm, 10-1 odds on NYI to miss the playoffs. Clearly you guys don't wager professionally. You'll never get that. Far, far lower. I wonder if the pros also think coaching means nothing? Haha. So funny.
- uofcguy

I definitely do not wager professionally (I even mentioned I have no idea how to get money on one of those sites). Instead of being a giant dud, why not just provide us with the odds, if you're such a pro?

You should be able to get some pretty sweet odds betting against a team that just went over 10% of the schedule without losing, regardless.

No one said coaching means nothing, but be realistic. We have the math to understand the impact the best players have and it's about four wins per year over a replacement player. Could Trotz provide four wins over a random NHL coach? I guarantee that he cannnot, since a coach does not have a bigger impact than the best player in the league. "haha!"

What you're forgetting is that everyone in the NHL is a pro. If you put me in place of Trotz, then sure, he's definitely going to be worth 15 wins. But Randy Carlyle is the worst coach in hockey over the past decade, and even he isn't going to cost you more than one or two wins.

They won ten in a row, I wouldn't take even money for it. Thanks anyways.
- James_Tanner

No worries.

I definitely do not wager professionally (I even mentioned I have no idea how to get money on one of those sites). Instead of being a giant dud, why not just provide us with the odds, if you're such a pro?

You should be able to get some pretty sweet odds betting against a team that just went over 10% of the schedule without losing, regardless.

No one said coaching means nothing, but be realistic. We have the math to understand the impact the best players have and it's about four wins per year over a replacement player. Could Trotz provide four wins over a random NHL coach? I guarantee that he cannnot, since a coach does not have a bigger impact than the best player in the league. "haha!"

What you're forgetting is that everyone in the NHL is a pro. If you put me in place of Trotz, then sure, he's definitely going to be worth 15 wins. But Randy Carlyle is the worst coach in hockey over the past decade, and even he isn't going to cost you more than one or two wins.
- James_Tanner

I love how you think it's so simple. So adding McDavid to another roster results in 4 extra wins. No debate. Just science. No consideration for how that might elevate everyone else on the roster and create better match-ups. You sound more and more like someone who has never played the game, beyond mini-mites. Adding the right coach into the right situation can have a much bigger impact than 4 wins. Notice I said can, not always. Because often coaches don't step into the right situations. Would love to hear from other readers who actually played at a high level. I think most will explain that winning and losing is often a game of inches. Extra effort on a backcheck, blocking a shot, small details. A good coach can inspire that. But when you play for a clown you give 95% because you don't really respect the guy. And so you lose. But carry on with your coaching lecture. It's enlightening!

I love how you think it's so simple. So adding McDavid to another roster results in 4 extra wins. No debate. Just science. No consideration for how that might elevate everyone else on the roster and create better match-ups. You sound more and more like someone who has never played the game, beyond mini-mites. Adding the right coach into the right situation can have a much bigger impact than 4 wins. Notice I said can, not always. Because often coaches don't step into the right situations. Would love to hear from other readers who actually played at a high level. I think most will explain that winning and losing is often a game of inches. Extra effort on a backcheck, blocking a shot, small details. A good coach can inspire that. But when you play for a clown you give 95% because you don't really respect the guy. And so you lose. But carry on with your coaching lecture. It's enlightening!
- uofcguy

No idea why the Islanders did not win more with Cappy coaching? Cappy was a real pro as a coach.

I don't need analytics to see that the Isles finally have a legit front office and coach. The country club mentality this team had is gone and they show up just about every game. You like to take shots at them because if Lou and that the fans gave 91 a hard time for one game after he came back. You keep looking at data I'll watch the games.

Starting when he gave Kovalchuck 17 years, he's been awful. He left a terrible mess behind in Toronto and the contracts he's handed out on the Island have been really, really bad.
- James_Tanner

Leafs have the best EVA!!! Couldn’t have left behind too big a mess...