Tyler Cameron: Central Preview: Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche on next on the list in our Central Division Preview.

They have a great balance on youth, speed and skill and they are fun to watch. Well, unless they are playing the Blackhawks, then they are a bit of a pain in the butt to watch.

Let's look at how they fared last year and what's to come in 2019-20 for the Avs.

FIRST !

I agree that the the Rockies will be tough for years to come. Lots of young talent up front and on D and plenty of cap space. MacKinnon at 6.3 M for the next several years in the steal of the century.


P.S. Tyler, FYI, at the bottom of this blog there's a typo. You should be asking our thoughts on the Rockies, not the Blues.

Your last sentence needs an update there, Ty....

Good write up on the avs Tyler. They blew Calgary off the sheet in the playoffs last year. A full year of Makar will make their transition game even more dangerous.

I can see them challenging the blues for 1st in the division.

Hawks schedule for the prospect tourney.

I assuming the times are Eastern

Friday 7 pm vs. Detroit
Saturday 3 pm vs. Toronto
Monday 5:30 pm vs. St. Louis
Tuesday 7th place game 12 noon
5th place game 12:30 pm
3rd place game 3:30 pm
Championship game 5 pm

Good write up on the avs Tyler. They blew Calgary off the sheet in the playoffs last year. A full year of Makar will make their transition game even more dangerous.

I can see them challenging the blues for 1st in the division.
- BlackhawkDown

I think Colorado will be the clear division leader. I’m still not sold on their ability to have a deep playoff run just yet, I question their goaltending. Maybe Grauber emerges as a true #1, but he hasn’t proven anything yet.

Dom Luszczyszyn’s Blackhawk preview is up this AM in The Athletic. They’ve projected the Hawks at 86.6 points. Here’s a snippet.

Chicago has seemingly re-tooled on the fly thanks to a very active summer and some promising young players, but there’s still a lot of work to be done around the edges of the roster to surpass the teams ahead of them in the West. The Blackhawks are an exciting club with a lot of offensive firepower, but struggle mightily on defense which is what puts them lower in the pecking order. Their 2.76 expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5 last season ranked dead last. The average point projection of 86.6 points is a modest upgrade from where the team finished last season, but that’s not enough for a fanbase likely divided between wanting a rebuild and wanting to win.

Right now, it’s a choose your own adventure situation. See what you want to see. Chicago is arguably not bad enough to be a bottom-feeder, but also not good enough to be a playoff team – the Blackhawks are in that mushy middle ground that few teams want to be a part of. It means any range of results feels plausible for this team, outside of being a legitimate contender. Still, I’d expect Chicago to finish closer to the bottom than the top. The Blackhawks’ chances of finishing in the bottom 10 are 48 percent, 19 percentage points higher than making the playoffs.

Dom Luszczyszyn’s Blackhawk preview is up this AM in The Athletic. They’ve projected the Hawks at 86.6 points. He’s a snippet.

Chicago has seemingly re-tooled on the fly thanks to a very active summer and some promising young players, but there’s still a lot of work to be done around the edges of the roster to surpass the teams ahead of them in the West. The Blackhawks are an exciting club with a lot of offensive firepower, but struggle mightily on defense which is what puts them lower in the pecking order. Their 2.76 expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5 last season ranked dead last. The average point projection of 86.6 points is a modest upgrade from where the team finished last season, but that’s not enough for a fanbase likely divided between wanting a rebuild and wanting to win.

Right now, it’s a choose your own adventure situation. See what you want to see. Chicago is arguably not bad enough to be a bottom-feeder, but also not good enough to be a playoff team – the Blackhawks are in that mushy middle ground that few teams want to be a part of. It means any range of results feels plausible for this team, outside of being a legitimate contender. Still, I’d expect Chicago to finish closer to the bottom than the top. The Blackhawks’ chances of finishing in the bottom 10 are 48 percent, 19 percentage points higher than making the playoffs.
- scottak

In all seriousness (yes, I can be serious) I think 86-87 points is underestimating what the Hawks can do.

I agree that the the Rockies will be tough for years to come. Lots of young talent up front and on D and plenty of cap space. MacKinnon at 6.3 M for the next several years in the steal of the century.


P.S. Tyler, FYI, at the bottom of this blog there's a typo. You should be asking our thoughts on the Rockies, not the Blues.
- boilermaker100

I’m not sure how well the Rockies will do in the NHL this season. The Avalanche should be pretty good.

Thanks I stand corrected. And I am the one spouting off about other people's typos. LOL.

In all seriousness (yes, I can be serious) I think 86-87 points is underestimating what the Hawks can do.
- DarthKane

I'm with you on this. They upgraded every part of their defensive game. Better goalie tandem, better dmen, better defensive forwards, better PK players, better face off centers/forwards...

I just don't see how that only translates to a 3 point improvement. I still think they will be battling COL and WIN for the wild cards, and see them in the 92-96 point range.

I see Colorado being near the top, if not the top of our division. I'm leery of the goaltending situation as well, I don't think Grubworm is enough & idk about the back-up. Out of all of the teams we have looked at so far, Colorado is easily the biggest competition.

Your last sentence needs an update there, Ty....
- Beaver-Warrior

Thanks pal! Fixed!!

Hawks schedule for the prospect tourney.

I assuming the times are Eastern

Friday 7 pm vs. Detroit
Saturday 3 pm vs. Toronto
Monday 5:30 pm vs. St. Louis
Tuesday 7th place game 12 noon
5th place game 12:30 pm
3rd place game 3:30 pm
Championship game 5 pm
- boilermaker100

Thanks for posting, sir!

I will have a preview tomorrow AM on the Traverse City Tourney.

I'm with you on this. They upgraded every part of their defensive game. Better goalie tandem, better dmen, better defensive forwards, better PK players, better face off centers/forwards...

I just don't see how that only translates to a 3 point improvement. I still think they will be battling COL and WIN for the wild cards, and see them in the 92-96 point range.
- tvetter

I’m generally optimistic for their chances to be a better team this year, but to your highlighted point...

If Toews, Kane, and Dinky’s numbers slip from their career type years, is the defensive improvement enough to make up for this? Maybe they slip, but the Team D is better and they cancel each other out, and we are right back where we started.

Also, the Av’s and Stars got better, and the Jets and Preds are still solid teams, oh and by the way...the defending champ Blues (I just threw up) are bringing back essentially the same team.

I could see this team finishing anywhere as high as 2nd in the division, or as low as 6th...even if healthy.

I’m not sure how well the Rockies will do in the NHL this season. The Avalanche should be pretty good.
- scottak

The way the Rockies play baseball, hockey might be their calling.

Dom Luszczyszyn’s Blackhawk preview is up this AM in The Athletic. They’ve projected the Hawks at 86.6 points. Here’s a snippet.


- scottak

Cool, another guy onboard with my prediction the Hawks will be in the draft lottery, which they'll win, duplicating the 3rd overall followed by the 1st overall from 2006 and 2007. The Hawks will select Lafreneire and he will be Dach's RW for the next decade+. Start planning the parade(s).

I’m generally optimistic for their chances to be a better team this year, but to your highlighted point...

If Toews, Kane, and Dinky’s numbers slip from their career type years, is the defensive improvement enough to make up for this? Maybe they slip, but the Team D is better and they cancel each other out, and we are right back where we started.

Also, the Av’s and Stars got better, and the Jets and Preds are still solid teams, oh and by the way...the defending champ Blues (I just threw up) are bringing back essentially the same team.

I could see this team finishing anywhere as high as 2nd in the division, or as low as 6th...even if healthy.
- Ogilthorpe2

1) I thought you weren't going to mention them again.
2) I agree that they could finish anywhere in that range. I expect they will finish 4th through 6th.

I’m generally optimistic for their chances to be a better team this year, but to your highlighted point...

If Toews, Kane, and Dinky’s numbers slip from their career type years, is the defensive improvement enough to make up for this? Maybe they slip, but the Team D is better and they cancel each other out, and we are right back where we started.

Also, the Av’s and Stars got better, and the Jets and Preds are still solid teams, oh and by the way...the defending champ Blues (I just threw up) are bringing back essentially the same team.

I could see this team finishing anywhere as high as 2nd in the division, or as low as 6th...even if healthy.
- Ogilthorpe2

Or even if dramatically improved.

And we seem to be discounting the Pacific Division - probably with justification - but I could see a surprise coming out of there - maybe AZ, if they can find some goals (Kessler should help) or Edmonton (at some point they should be able to be good with McDavid and Draisaitl and N-H). Not a lock (altho likely) that 5 teams get into the post-season from the Central, I think.

I am optomistic also. As far as the tough central, the Hawks last year were 14-8-2 against central teams last year, where they fell down big was only 5-13-1 against the pacific.

I agree Stan has strengthened the roster. Last years opening game squad had Ward starting, Luke johnson, Martinson, Kruger, Kunitz, Manning and Rutta, all of whom would of been replaced by the additions Stan made during and after the season.

Hawks scored 270 goals last year, 8th in the league,. Even if Kane, Toews, ADB do not have the season stats wise as last year, I think the added depth should pick up the additional goals, so I realistically see the same number of goals scored this year. If the Hawks could cut .5 goals per game, that would take them to around 240 for the year which would be right around the middle of the pack. The additions of Matta, DaHaan, better goaltending and the more gritty and defensively responsible bottom 6, and a full training camp for Colliton to implement his system, I believe should cut out 40 goals against (.5 goals a game). Shoot, if they take the same number of penalties, and increase their kill percentage up to 80%, (also would be league average percent wise), that is 17 less goals over the season.

If they cut the goals against, and avoid long losing streaks (that 8 game losing streak, 3-13-3 record over that almost 25% of the season when Colliton first took over), was a killer, I can see the Hawks securing a wild card slot this season.

AND start games on time and not fall behind by 2-3 in the first 10 minutes of the game.

Dom Luszczyszyn’s Blackhawk preview is up this AM in The Athletic. They’ve projected the Hawks at 86.6 points. Here’s a snippet.

Chicago has seemingly re-tooled on the fly thanks to a very active summer and some promising young players, but there’s still a lot of work to be done around the edges of the roster to surpass the teams ahead of them in the West. The Blackhawks are an exciting club with a lot of offensive firepower, but struggle mightily on defense which is what puts them lower in the pecking order. Their 2.76 expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5 last season ranked dead last. The average point projection of 86.6 points is a modest upgrade from where the team finished last season, but that’s not enough for a fanbase likely divided between wanting a rebuild and wanting to win.

Right now, it’s a choose your own adventure situation. See what you want to see. Chicago is arguably not bad enough to be a bottom-feeder, but also not good enough to be a playoff team – the Blackhawks are in that mushy middle ground that few teams want to be a part of. It means any range of results feels plausible for this team, outside of being a legitimate contender. Still, I’d expect Chicago to finish closer to the bottom than the top. The Blackhawks’ chances of finishing in the bottom 10 are 48 percent, 19 percentage points higher than making the playoffs.
- scottak

I don’t like people who completely dismiss the advanced stats, as I feel they have a lot of value and can definitely help teams assess their strengths/weaknesses. At the same time, I also don’t like people, like Dom, who think that they are the be all, end all that can explain and quantify everything about the game. The eye test still matters in some instances.

To sum up, Dom is a tool, and I don’t really care what he or his model thinks.

I don’t like people who completely dismiss the advanced stats, as I feel they have a lot of value and can definitely help teams assess their strengths/weaknesses. At the same time, I also don’t like people, like Dom, who think that they are the be all, end all that can explain and quantify everything about the game. The eye test still matters in some instances.

To sum up, Dom is a tool, and I don’t really care what he or his model thinks.
- Ogilthorpe2

That’s why they play the games. It’ll be interesting whether they’re good, bad or in between.

I’m on UA at 1230 going ORD > DFW. You captaining my flight?

I don’t like people who completely dismiss the advanced stats, as I feel they have a lot of value and can definitely help teams assess their strengths/weaknesses. At the same time, I also don’t like people, like Dom, who think that they are the be all, end all that can explain and quantify everything about the game. The eye test still matters in some instances.

To sum up, Dom is a tool, and I don’t really care what he or his model thinks.
- Ogilthorpe2

Articles like that make for good discussion topics but that's about it. At the beginning of last season I'm sure the advanced stats wouldn't have supported Carolina and St Louis in the final 4.

I’m generally optimistic for their chances to be a better team this year, but to your highlighted point...

If Toews, Kane, and Dinky’s numbers slip from their career type years, is the defensive improvement enough to make up for this? Maybe they slip, but the Team D is better and they cancel each other out, and we are right back where we started.

Also, the Av’s and Stars got better, and the Jets and Preds are still solid teams, oh and by the way...the defending champ Blues (I just threw up) are bringing back essentially the same team.

I could see this team finishing anywhere as high as 2nd in the division, or as low as 6th...even if healthy.
- Ogilthorpe2

Good points Toews and Kane will/have slipped before and some day soon. Dinky is dinky. He gives no credit for retooled defense and adding an NHL goalie on paper better than any of the goalies he has beating out the Hawks. If they had a 3C, somebody like Artem Anisimov I would feel better...