I disagree with this statement. People say that there are only 1 or 2 good dmen in every draft and the rest are all in the same tier. History shows that this is never the case, though it can be hard to pinpoint who the best D will be. What I would like to know(and I am too lazy to investigate the analytics of this) what the % is between forwards and dmen taken in the first round bust out. More forwards bust out as a whole due to more being drafted, but what % of dmen and what % of forwards become busts in the first round?
- Retinalz

probably depends on your def'n of bust. there are more forward spots available in a line up, their deficiencies more easily hid, and have more 'roles' they can be deployed in. dmen imo often get limited opportunity to work their way in and up lineups

I believe he’s talking about the 2019 draft, not all drafts, but I could be wrong?
- Pacificgem

He is, but people said the same thing about 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, etc. It always ends up being wrong, there are more top 4 dmen from the 1st round than any other round. To think that the quality of he dman we take at 10 is the same as the one we take at 40 is ludicrous. Sure overtime the guy we take at 40 could kick it up a notch, but the guy we took at 10 is still more likely to be a better defender in 5 years than the guy we took at 40.

I can’t tell if this is a compliment or not. Keep up the good work
- 1970vintage

take it whatever way you like

He is, but people said the same thing about 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, etc. It always ends up being wrong, there are more top 4 dmen from the 1st round than any other round. To think that the quality of he dman we take at 10 is the same as the one we take at 40 is ludicrous. Sure overtime the guy we take at 40 could kick it up a notch, but the guy we took at 10 is still more likely to be a better defender in 5 years than the guy we took at 40.
- Retinalz

40 is only nine picks into the second round. But I agree, the kid you take at #10 (if he’s a D) will more likely than not be a much better player than the D you take at #40. As a general statement.

probably depends on your def'n of bust. there are more forward spots available in a line up, their deficiencies more easily hid, and have more 'roles' they can be deployed in. dmen imo often get limited opportunity to work their way in and up lineups
- johnnykarate

I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to figure out a good way. You would need multiple categories to look at in order to have accurate information, probably look at 5 years from draft, are they still in the NHL? Playing quality minutes?

Realistically a 1st rounder playing 4th line or even 3rd line 5 years later is not living up to his position, same with a defender playing 3rd pairing.

I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to figure out a good way. You would need multiple categories to look at in order to have accurate information, probably look at 5 years from draft, are they still in the NHL? Playing quality minutes?

Realistically a 1st rounder playing 4th line or even 3rd line 5 years later is not living up to his position, same with a defender playing 3rd pairing.
- Retinalz

idn its just kind of hard to toss labels at things with so many variables. hindsight is super easy but scouts/gms can only make decisions based on the information they have at the time. injuries, opportunities, coaches, linemates etc can all play into the development and bust status years down the road

Don just said it best. Canucks have a team of scouts that see the players of interest play multiple times. They have a list and whoever they take is fine.

I am just saying my preference is D
- VANTEL

Hughes was a great start. Totally cool with D at 10OA just needs to be RHD.

But that would mean drafting D .

I already know you will say in later rounds but there are 5 good looking Dmen in the top 20 . Young, big , good skaters , and good hockey IQ despite what the experts here tell you.

I have seen most of the forwards play and I would draft a Dman at 10 and start filling those cupboards.

If Boldy or Zegras does fall to 10 ,then all bets are off, take them.
- VANTEL

I said the other day that the only one I think is going to fall is Podzolkin whatever. JB will jump on it and we will have another Russian that will never play for us. Wasted pick.

I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to figure out a good way. You would need multiple categories to look at in order to have accurate information, probably look at 5 years from draft, are they still in the NHL? Playing quality minutes?

Realistically a 1st rounder playing 4th line or even 3rd line 5 years later is not living up to his position, same with a defender playing 3rd pairing.
- Retinalz

Gudbransen.

I said the other day that the only one I think is going to fall is Podzolkin whatever. JB will jump on it and we will have another Russian that will never play for us. Wasted pick.
- thundachunk

It's going to be fun around here when they draft a goalie in the first round.

" Goalies are the last and most important line of defence "

It's going to be fun around here when they draft a goalie in the first round.

" Goalies are the last and most important line of defence "
- golfingsince

I said the other day that the only one I think is going to fall is Podzolkin whatever. JB will jump on it and we will have another Russian that will never play for us. Wasted pick.
- thundachunk

Podk is signed for two more years in Russia which means no control of development. I would be very surprised if he doesn't fall to late first round

It's going to be fun around here when they draft a goalie in the first round.

" Goalies are the last and most important line of defence "
- golfingsince

That would be awesome.

- NorthNuck

Podk is signed for two more years in Russia which means no control of development. I would be very surprised if he doesn't fall to late first round
- VANTEL

I know but our GM is dumb enough to take him.

I know but our GM is dumb enough to take him.
- thundachunk

I’d bet 20k that we don’t take him. Let me know if your game. He is dumb but this org wouldn’t go near a Russian in the first round. Certainly not a garbage one like Pod

I’d bet 20k that we don’t take him. Let me know if your game. He is dumb but this org wouldn’t go near a Russian in the first round. Certainly not a garbage one like Pod
- CanuckDon

Id put my money he falls to Washington, and they take a chance on him. It's an easy sell to russian prospects when you can say that they will have a chance to play with one of the greatest Russians to ever play the game.

He is, but people said the same thing about 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, etc. It always ends up being wrong, there are more top 4 dmen from the 1st round than any other round. To think that the quality of he dman we take at 10 is the same as the one we take at 40 is ludicrous. Sure overtime the guy we take at 40 could kick it up a notch, but the guy we took at 10 is still more likely to be a better defender in 5 years than the guy we took at 40.
- Retinalz

Actually, that wasn't said about last years draft. In fact, it was known to be a defense heavy draft with guys like Ty Smith and Ryan Merkley, drafted 17 and 21, who were considered in the same class as Bouchard, Dobson and Boquist.....

John Davidson resigned today . Hello Big Apple

I’d bet 20k that we don’t take him. Let me know if your game. He is dumb but this org wouldn’t go near a Russian in the first round. Certainly not a garbage one like Pod
- CanuckDon

poster 1: that would be a bad decision

poster 2: but our gm is that dumb LOL

everyone:

canuckdon: i will literally bet you 20k that would never ever happen annonymous poster. it is literally the worst decision ever. dont even joke about that because it would never ever happen

poster 1: that would be a bad decision

poster 2: but our gm is that dumb LOL

everyone:

canuckdon: i will literally bet you 20k that would never ever happen annonymous poster. it is literally the worst decision ever. dont even joke about that because it would never ever happen



- johnnykarate

Simple common sense karate kid

It's going to be fun around here when they draft a goalie in the first round.

" Goalies are the last and most important line of defence "
- golfingsince

canuckdon would like to bet you 50k this would never ever happen

canuckdon would like to bet you 50k this would never ever happen
- johnnykarate

I wouldn’t do that Karate Kid, spencer night is North American and a solid prospect. Stop speaking for me kid

Edit: $500 not $20k. I should have been realistic

Some people are down on Podk because of his 2 year contract in Russia. As long as he plans to come to NA it is of no consequence. It didn't stop Malkin from becoming a beast. Also at his age, the KHL contract is unlikely to be for a lot of money, after 1 season in the KHL the buyout is likely not that high. A promise of an NHL paycheck would be enough to get him to come over if he feels he is NHL ready. If not, waiting 2 years for a 10oa pick to make the club is not unheard of. It's not like the canucks get much control over prospects of the CHL after summer. It also did not hurt EP's development at all either. If he is there at 10, you take a good hard look at him, and it is not the wrong choice to take him(Unless you feel there will be issues bringing him over to NA).