HockeyBuzz Hotstove: 2018-19 Selke Trophy picks

Tanner you are so out to lunch on this one! Thanks for the ongoing entertainment.

I guarantee that if you polled 20 hockey stats nerds, they'd like my three finalists better than the PHWA ones. They'd invite me for lunch, if anything. Which would be sweet cause I'm hungry.

I guarantee that if you polled 20 hockey stats nerds, they'd like my three finalists better than the PHWA ones. They'd invite me for lunch, if anything. Which would be sweet cause I'm hungry.
- James_Tanner

Ryan Lambert would probably be able to afford to take you out to a nice dinner from the dollar menu at McDonalds

Hey Tanner; to bad the Kool-Ade you've been drinking has really deteriorated your mind. Maybe you should go back and look at some of the Blues games instead of just watching only Canadian games, Wake up you might see what you have been missing.

I guarantee that if you polled 20 hockey stats nerds, they'd like my three finalists better than the PHWA ones. They'd invite me for lunch, if anything. Which would be sweet cause I'm hungry.
- James_Tanner

Alex Kerfoot started 56% of his shifts in the offensive zone. So it's not like he's a defensive stalwart. Not to mention the competition he faces is easier, becasue, you know Coaches gameplane for Nathan Mackinnion. That guy is pretty good.

Alex Kerfoot started 56% of his shifts in the offensive zone. So it's not like he's a defensive stalwart. Not to mention the competition he faces is easier, becasue, you know Coaches gameplane for Nathan Mackinnion. That guy is pretty good.
- tomburton99

While those are fair points, quality of competition and zone starts tend to get massively overrated. Kerfoot is hard to score on, and statistically he's a fantastic defensive player.

Most NHL games are decided by one goal, and since Mackinnon only skates 20 minutes max in a game, most of the goals involving the Avalanche occur when he's not on the ice. It's just crazy to think that only super star lines have effects on the game, which is what I find happens a lot.

While those are fair points, quality of competition and zone starts tend to get massively overrated. Kerfoot is hard to score on, and statistically he's a fantastic defensive player.

Most NHL games are decided by one goal, and since Mackinnon only skates 20 minutes max in a game, most of the goals involving the Avalanche occur when he's not on the ice. It's just crazy to think that only super star lines have effects on the game, which is what I find happens a lot.
- James_Tanner

Kerfoot: CFrel 2.7

ROR: CFrel 2.9 (starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone as #1 center)

Bergeron: CFrel 6.1 (Started his shift in the O zone 59% of the time.

So to say ROR doesn't deserve the nom, is your typical self wanting the attention.

While those are fair points, quality of competition and zone starts tend to get massively overrated. Kerfoot is hard to score on, and statistically he's a fantastic defensive player.

Most NHL games are decided by one goal, and since Mackinnon only skates 20 minutes max in a game, most of the goals involving the Avalanche occur when he's not on the ice. It's just crazy to think that only super star lines have effects on the game, which is what I find happens a lot.
- James_Tanner

Also

Kerfoot Avergage time on ice. 14:53

Mackinnon average time on ice. 22:05


Use the internet better. It's your friend.

Kerfoot: CFrel 2.7

ROR: CFrel 2.9 (starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone as #1 center)

Bergeron: CFrel 6.1 (Started his shift in the O zone 59% of the time.

So to say ROR doesn't deserve the nom, is your typical self wanting the attention.

- tomburton99

James Tanner is the human example of model overfit resulting in high model bias.

Combine that with his sensationalist click-bait approach to writing (I’m not going to call it journalism) and that’s how you get Kerfoot for Selke and Gardiner for Norris.

But say what you will, the man is entertaining. And if I’ve learned one thing from being around here for a few years it’s that the hockeybuzz community appreciates a good troll (even if they won’t admit it).

James Tanner is the human example of model overfit resulting in high model bias.

Combine that with his sensationalist click-bait approach to writing (I’m not going to call it journalism) and that’s how you get Kerfoot for Selke and Gardiner for Norris.

But say what you will, the man is entertaining. And if I’ve learned one thing from being around here for a few years it’s that the hockeybuzz community appreciates a good troll (even if they won’t admit it).
- RonPielep

Ive never once nominated jake gardiner for a norris and if you bother to follow any of the actually good stats based writers and twiitterers, you'd know Kerfoot is not original thinking on my part.

Fact is in 2019 anyone who thinks even slightly differently than mainstream is considered a troll.

Ive never once nominated jake gardiner for a norris and if you bother to follow any of the actually good stats based writers and twiitterers, you'd know Kerfoot is not original thinking on my part.

Fact is in 2019 anyone who thinks even slightly differently than mainstream is considered a troll.
- James_Tanner

Just looking at a team's goal differential does a better job at predicting their record the following year than any other advanced stats. Multiple studies proving this. Unlike baseball, the NHL does not have statistical measures for the majority of what happens on the ice. The only people who pretend the advance stats should replace traditional scouting are people who have a vested financial interest in advanced stats being valued; and people who have psychological issues that result in them looking for ways to feel special and different from the mainstream.

Also

Kerfoot Avergage time on ice. 14:53

Mackinnon average time on ice. 22:05


Use the internet better. It's your friend.
- tomburton99

Yeah, I’m sorry but a dude who doesn’t even average 15 minutes can’t be winning a major award.

Ive never once nominated jake gardiner for a norris and if you bother to follow any of the actually good stats based writers and twiitterers, you'd know Kerfoot is not original thinking on my part.

Fact is in 2019 anyone who thinks even slightly differently than mainstream is considered a troll.
- James_Tanner

Even worse, your sensationalized click-bait resulting from model over-fit of advanced stats isn't even original.

Thanks for offering James, but no, I do not want to smoke whatever you have in that Twittiot crack pipe.

Yeah, I’m sorry but a dude who doesn’t even average 15 minutes can’t be winning a major award.
- Nucker101

It's actually quite common for Selke nominees to be 7th among their teams' forwards in TOI/game and 2nd last among their teams' forwards in +/- (over a nice sample size of an entire season). Meanwhile Bergeron, O'Reilly, Stone (with Ott) all led their teams' forwards in +/- (over an entire season).

But oh yeah, +/- and goal differential are meaningless because ~ sample size ~, which is why I emphasized over an entire season.

Out of these nominees, Stone should win, but he won't because he's not a center and doesn't have faceoff statistics to help his case. It's stupid, but since a lot of hockey writers don't watch games outside of the teams they cover, they heavily rely on statistics, and FO% is one of the major ones used for the Selke. My guess is that ROR wins this season.

IMO, the best choice for the Selke this season using the normal metrics would be Phillip Danault. He shows very well in all the traditional Selke categories:

FO%: 55.5%
CF%: 56.9%
+/-: +17
SHTOI: 2:30/GP
oZS%: 44.7%

One of my favorite tanner pieces was from last off-season where i believe he wrote that nino neiderreiter was a top ten player in the league. That was some good stuff.

What league was that? Might be top ten in my Beer league - Maybe