Trevor Shackles: Thursday Think Tank: The Columbus Dilemma Thoughts on Columbus, Bettman, Mumford and Sons, and more!

BEST case for OTT, Columbus misses playoffs end up with 3rd OA, OTT get CBJ 2020 1st, Duch, Dzingle, Panarin and Bob leave, CBJ is a lottery team in 2020 and OTT ends up with two top 3-5 picks in 2020. This could very well happen!

BEST case for OTT, Columbus misses playoffs end up with 3rd OA, OTT get CBJ 2020 1st, Duch, Dzingle, Panarin and Bob leave, CBJ is a lottery team in 2020 and OTT ends up with two top 3-5 picks in 2020. This could very well happen!

Are you me? I had this exact same thought! Not to mention those two second rounders could be pretty high too.

In all seriousness though, is is better to draft 15th (ish) overall, or to draft two picks in the mid 20s?

Usually in the 1st round, there's different tiers of talent; 1st overall is usually a consensus, then 2-3 and maybe 4 are a toss up but still pretty clear, then 5-10 is a crapshoot. I would assume by like pick 12, it's all over the place with team evaluations. Picking 15th or picking some early 20s doesn't seem to be as huge a deal/a big difference as one might expect.

Quinton Byfield is 6’5” and will grow into a 230 lb frame. He is 10months younger than Lafrenier. He was taken first in the OHL fraft.

Lots of chatter that he will go firsr in 2020.

Dominate centers are gold.

Great scenario.

With the first pick in the draft Ottawa selects Quinton Byfield. With the second pick in the 2020 draft Ottawa selects Lafreniere.

Let's not forget our team here is the Ottawa Senators and the odds of us getting any good scenario's in the draft lottery are next to none. I have this pit in my stomach realizing that:

San Jose will probably lose 1st round, Karlsson will sign somewhere else.

Duchene probably signs somewhere else and with our luck still in the east so we face him 4 times a year and the Columbus pick probably busts.

Next year we probably overachieve somehow but don't make the playoffs and lose at the lottery or maybe even finish last but end up with 4th overall pick again.

It would be a dream to have either Byfield or Lafreniere but I have a feeling Ottawa is not getting any consensus top tier talent in future drafts because we have rotten luck, a distracted GM with the smallest scouting staff and front office in the league and we always tend to overachieve when we should tank and tank when we should overachieve.

Let's not forget our team here is the Ottawa Senators and the odds of us getting any good scenario's in the draft lottery are next to none. I have this pit in my stomach realizing that:

San Jose will probably lose 1st round, Karlsson will sign somewhere else.

Duchene probably signs somewhere else and with our luck still in the east so we face him 4 times a year and the Columbus pick probably busts.

Next year we probably overachieve somehow but don't make the playoffs and lose at the lottery or maybe even finish last but end up with 4th overall pick again.

It would be a dream to have either Byfield or Lafreniere but I have a feeling Ottawa is not getting any consensus top tier talent in future drafts because we have rotten luck, a distracted GM with the smallest scouting staff and front office in the league and we always tend to overachieve when we should tank and tank when we should overachieve.
- TDBSenatoR

Bottoming out should change the pattern.

So, let’s assume Marchand is correct. Marner gets $12m. Is there a player ready to be plucked off the Leaf roster?

Bottoming out should change the pattern.

So, let’s assume Marchand is correct. Marner gets $12m. Is there a player ready to be plucked off the Leaf roster?
- spatso

Kapanan and Johnsson, Andreas

Only partially relevant but I wish the Ottawa Sens would switch their Jersey's over to what the B-Sens currently wear. Inject something fresh on the ice at least. Those jerseys in Belleville look damn fine.

The current Ottawa jerseys are just bleh.

With all the cap space that Ottawa has, I think it would be awesome if they just went out and signed Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, and Artemi Panarin. With those players in place and with the collection of assets that Ottawa has collected, this team would be a contender in as early as 2 years.

And maybe even offer sheet a guy like Marner, Rantannen, Laine, Meier, etc....

With all the cap space that Ottawa has, I think it would be awesome if they just went out and signed Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, and Artemi Panarin. With those players in place and with the collection of assets that Ottawa has collected, this team would be a contender in as early as 2 years.

And maybe even offer sheet a guy like Marner, Rantannen, Laine, Meier, etc....
- TheUltimateJet

If Ottawa offersheets anyone I would take the 4 1sts. Guaranteed 4 top 10 picks.

Offer sheeting players is not a wise move due to the loss of first round picks.
Ottawa is almost a lock to pick top 5 in the next 2 drafts and will have the opportunity to add top end talent that way.

Only partially relevant but I wish the Ottawa Sens would switch their Jersey's over to what the B-Sens currently wear. Inject something fresh on the ice at least. Those jerseys in Belleville look damn fine.

The current Ottawa jerseys are just bleh.
- TDBSenatoR

Agreed. Have the black and white O jerseys for a new look. They already push the O logo ever where, why are they still holding onto the 3D logo.

Personally, I'd love to see a retro swap back the 2D logos with the black and white jerseys. A lot of teams are coming out with a retro look, usually for alternate jerseys, so it doesn't seem that far fetched.

Maybe for the 2020/2021 season? Doubt anyone will be buying jerseys next year.

With all the cap space that Ottawa has, I think it would be awesome if they just went out and signed Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, and Artemi Panarin. With those players in place and with the collection of assets that Ottawa has collected, this team would be a contender in as early as 2 years.

And maybe even offer sheet a guy like Marner, Rantannen, Laine, Meier, etc....

Erik Karlsson and Duchene are almost 30 and Karlsson wants 8 X 11 despite injury problems arising and him slowing down slightly already. Plus Karlsson wouldn't ever sign here because of Melnyk.

Duchene wants to play for a winner so he probably won't resign with this messed up Ottawa organization.

Panarin will get better offers elsewhere.

Remember Ottawa cannot front-load contracts and you are also forgetting we are cheap due to Melnyk.

I keep hoping the NHL intervenes and hooks you all up with better owners.
Personally, I think the fans should own the teams like in GreenBay.

BEST case for OTT, Columbus misses playoffs end up with 3rd OA, OTT get CBJ 2020 1st, Duch, Dzingle, Panarin and Bob leave, CBJ is a lottery team in 2020 and OTT ends up with two top 3-5 picks in 2020. This could very well happen!
- Athrin

there are better, and just as or more likely, scenarios that could play out here.

CBJ can miss this year, give us a pick in the 10-15 range in 2019. Re-sign Duchene and Dzingel, lose Panarin and Bob, be pretty bad next year and give us another pick, likely in the top 10.

that is absolutely the best case scenario. they aren't bad enough this year to finish with a top 10 pick, and if they win the draft lottery we get no pick.

your scenario could occur, with the one caveat that they do convince Duchene to stay, in that case we also get 2 picks......2020 and 2021. not as preferable to my choice, but still pretty good.

there are better, and just as or more likely, scenarios that could play out here.

CBJ can miss this year, give us a pick in the 10-15 range in 2019. Re-sign Duchene and Dzingel, lose Panarin and Bob, be pretty bad next year and give us another pick, likely in the top 10.

that is absolutely the best case scenario. they aren't bad enough this year to finish with a top 10 pick, and if they win the draft lottery we get no pick.

your scenario could occur, with the one caveat that they do convince Duchene to stay, in that case we also get 2 picks......2020 and 2021. not as preferable to my choice, but still pretty good.
- sensarmy_11

if they get a top 3 pick this year they give OTT 2020 1st instead and if they resign duch OTT get the 2021 first instead of 2020....they can barely male it with panarin and bobo and even with Duch and Dzingle might not make it...duch is not re-signing with CBJ.

if they get a top 3 pick this year they give OTT 2020 1st instead and if they resign duch OTT get the 2021 first instead of 2020....they can barely male it with panarin and bobo and even with Duch and Dzingle might not make it...duch is not re-signing with CBJ.
- Athrin

if Duch re-signs, they get two 1sts....the specific details of which years picks they get depending on winning the lottery or not, and re-signing Duch i'm not sure of. all i know is that they get one 1st for sure, and 2 if he re-signs.

he might end up loving CBJ, they might be able to make the pitch that the team actually has a future. they clearly have an owner and management willing to go for it, they have some pretty good core pieces. even if Bob and Panarin leave, there is still a damn good crop of UFAs that they could target.

i don't think it's impossible that he re-signs. they're going to have 35-40 mil in cap space, no RFAs due for massive raises. they'll have money to spend and could bring in some quality players.

if Duch re-signs, they get two 1sts....the specific details of which years picks they get depending on winning the lottery or not, and re-signing Duch i'm not sure of. all i know is that they get one 1st for sure, and 2 if he re-signs.

he might end up loving CBJ, they might be able to make the pitch that the team actually has a future. they clearly have an owner and management willing to go for it, they have some pretty good core pieces. even if Bob and Panarin leave, there is still a damn good crop of UFAs that they could target.

i don't think it's impossible that he re-signs. they're going to have 35-40 mil in cap space, no RFAs due for massive raises. they'll have money to spend and could bring in some quality players.
- sensarmy_11

better chance he re-signs with OTT on July first than CBJ....

Agreed. Have the black and white O jerseys for a new look. They already push the O logo ever where, why are they still holding onto the 3D logo.

Personally, I'd love to see a retro swap back the 2D logos with the black and white jerseys. A lot of teams are coming out with a retro look, usually for alternate jerseys, so it doesn't seem that far fetched.

Maybe for the 2020/2021 season? Doubt anyone will be buying jerseys next year.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I've never liked the 2D logo, the current one I think looks good, I really like the classic "O" logo but I will admit it's pretty boring.

I wish they would design something new. It's really not hard. I made a design for new Jersey's last year that I still think looks great, but no one seemed to want any change.

BEST case for OTT, Columbus misses playoffs end up with 3rd OA, OTT get CBJ 2020 1st, Duch, Dzingle, Panarin and Bob leave, CBJ is a lottery team in 2020 and OTT ends up with two top 3-5 picks in 2020. This could very well happen!
- Athrin

wait explain the conditions with the duchene trade please

there are better, and just as or more likely, scenarios that could play out here.

CBJ can miss this year, give us a pick in the 10-15 range in 2019. Re-sign Duchene and Dzingel, lose Panarin and Bob, be pretty bad next year and give us another pick, likely in the top 10.

that is absolutely the best case scenario. they aren't bad enough this year to finish with a top 10 pick, and if they win the draft lottery we get no pick.

your scenario could occur, with the one caveat that they do convince Duchene to stay, in that case we also get 2 picks......2020 and 2021. not as preferable to my choice, but still pretty good.
- sensarmy_11

Still think I"d prefer the lottery pick scenario, although its so unlikely we shouldnt be considering it. Either way, I think they're picking in the 18-22 range.

I don't know much about the guys tehre, but I'm hoping a guy like Foote is considered. A goal scorer who goes against the usual two way mantra they always consider.

wait explain the conditions with the duchene trade please
- AlfieisKing

Ottawa recieves 2019 first round pick.

If Duchene re-signs, Ottawa also receives a 2020 first round pick.

However, If Columbus' pick this year is in the top 3, Ottawa gets next year's pick instead, so ottawa would pick in 2020.

In the unlikely chance Duchene re-signs, and Columbus' pick is in the top 3 this year, Ottawa would get picks in 2020, and 2021.

Ottawa recieves 2019 first round pick.

If Duchene re-signs, Ottawa also receives a 2020 first round pick.

However, If Columbus' pick this year is in the top 3, Ottawa gets next year's pick instead, so ottawa would pick in 2020.

In the unlikely chance Duchene re-signs, and Columbus' pick is in the top 3 this year, Ottawa would get picks in 2020, and 2021.
- david22

The announcers for the Islanders said during their Tuesday game (I live in CT, so I was able to watch it) that if all the conditional picks work in Ottawa's favor, that they would have seventeen picks in the first three rounds for the next three drafts. Is that true? I cannot seem to find a decent website that shows what teams have what picks in upcoming drafts and what conditions are applied to what picks (anyone know of any?).