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Forums :: Blog World :: Justin Lowe: Not-So-Bold Trade Deadline Predictions for Blackhawks
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Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Feb 21 @ 6:24 PM ET
Well Matthews only signed for 5, which is probably what Marner will also do, so then your window is 5 years not 8 which is max term, as if they perform to there abilities they will command more.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Kapanen gets an offer sheet.

- LAHawk


What does that have to do with anything? Crosby and Malkin only signed for 5 years as well. You can hope they leave after 5 but if I were a betting man, and I am, I wouldn't count on it.

If they cost more, the cost more, it will likely be a similar percentage to the inflating cap. Either way there is no reason they can't have Matthews and Marner together for 10+ years of playoff appearances.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Feb 21 @ 6:25 PM ET
4th P

8 teams with scouts/mgmt on list for Capitals/Leafs tonight: BOS, STL (2), DAL, OTT, MTL, CHI, PIT (2), TB
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:27 PM ET
I could be wrong but with AA having 2 more years at $4.5M - he isn't really a rental and he's not going to garner much in a trade. So, the idea is to "unload" him sooner than later and if the proposed deal is something Ottawa would agree to - Sikura is not too high a price to unload AA. This is all contingent on Dzingel signing the deal in the proposal because it's a deal I would like the Hawks to make after July 1st anyway.
- EbonyRaptor

Well, there is no need to sweeten the deal since the Hawks aren't in cap hell. Ottawa is going to need to hit the cap floor after they unload Duchene, Dzingel and maybe Stone. Ceci, too, if anyone is dumb enough to trade for him. AA's cap hit help there. That has value.

In the end the Hawks end up signing a guy with a higher AAV to do essentially what AA does. Plus, add a couple more assets that could be used in a different manner. Not to mention more term.

IDK if Dzingel is worth that.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:28 PM ET
4th P

8 teams with scouts/mgmt on list for Capitals/Leafs tonight: BOS, STL (2), DAL, OTT, MTL, CHI, PIT (2), TB

- mrpaulish


Hawks are scouting Kempny.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:28 PM ET
4th P

8 teams with scouts/mgmt on list for Capitals/Leafs tonight: BOS, STL (2), DAL, OTT, MTL, CHI, PIT (2), TB

- mrpaulish

You are aware that scouts are at every game and the only reason anyone notices is because of the TDL?
Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Feb 21 @ 6:29 PM ET
[quote=Blazed]I'm curious to how Marner plays out. I get the 10 mil but how does Marner make more than Kucherov at 9.5? I think there is more comparables for high end wingers than there was for Matthews.

Gaudreau only makes 6.75, similar for Pastrnak.

If Marner shouldn't take a penny less than 10, I assume you agree neither should Point or Rantanen?

- LAHawk[/quote

Do you think Marner thinks he is worth $1.5M less a year than Matthews currently?


Center vs winger and if you're comparing year to year development Marner is a year behind.

Goals usually get paid more anyways.

Young 40 goal two way center > young elite production winger

Marner is an absolute stud though. Kane Jr.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:32 PM ET
Center vs winger and if you're comparing year to year development Marner is a year behind.

Goals usually get paid more anyways.

Young 40 goal two way center > young elite production winger

Marner is an absolute stud though. Kane Jr.

- Blazed

Toews and Kane have always had matching deals and until recently, Toews scored more goals.

The real problem is the Leafs and other teams are paying guys coming off their ELCs that haven't won jack squat.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:34 PM ET
Why is Florida wanting to move Hoffman? The $5.1 million salary could have something to do with it. But Tallon acquired him and he is having a career season.He is in the prime of his career from an age and performance standpoint. I have to ask, is some of the issues he experienced in Ottawa follow him if he is traded again?
- jhawk59

Cause Tallon is terrible at cap management. Not so hot at talent evaluation, either.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Feb 21 @ 6:35 PM ET
Dredger:

Stone, Duchene and Dzingel scratched for precautionary reasons.
Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Feb 21 @ 6:37 PM ET
Toews and Kane have always had matching deals and until recently, Toews scored more goals.

The real problem is the Leafs and other teams are paying guys coming off their ELCs that haven't won jack squat.

- Elbows15


Toews and Kane proves my point more than anything. They had matching deals because of the emphasis in value placed on two-way center.

Kane has always had vastly superior offensive production and abilities to Toews.

Matthews and Marner are much more similar in offensive production. 1.2ppg vs 1.17ppg.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 21 @ 6:38 PM ET
Center vs winger and if you're comparing year to year development Marner is a year behind.

Goals usually get paid more anyways.

Young 40 goal two way center > young elite production winger

Marner is an absolute stud though. Kane Jr.

- Blazed


Same reason why Stamkos took less staying with Tampa than was offered by the Leafs, he pays no state tax, ends up keeping more of his money.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:38 PM ET
Dredger:

Stone, Duchene and Dzingel scratched for precautionary reasons.

- walleyeb1

Its things like this that makes me wish they all fall down a flight of stairs and break something. Nothing bad. Just something that takes 4-6 weeks to heal.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Feb 21 @ 6:41 PM ET
Powers had a fantastic write up on Hossa's skin condition and what he is up to now. It was worth the read!
- nickmo2699


Don't know if you read the piece on Ray Emery. Wasn't one of the Chicago writers (Powers or Lazerus), but was also really well done and worth a read.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Feb 21 @ 6:42 PM ET
Toews and Kane have always had matching deals and until recently, Toews scored more goals.

The real problem is the Leafs and other teams are paying guys coming off their ELCs that haven't won jack squat.

- Elbows15


At the time wasn't Kane and Toews deal up there? 6.3 or 6.5 at the time part of the reason we could only keep 9 players? And technically they didn't win anything until after that deal was signed, if memory serves me correctly.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:43 PM ET
Toews and Kane proves my point more than anything. They had matching deals because of the emphasis in value placed on two-way center.

Kane has always had vastly superior offensive production and abilities to Toews.

Matthews and Marner are much more similar in offensive production. 1.2ppg vs 1.17ppg.

- Blazed

So Marner should be signing for what Matthews signed for then. Works for me.
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:43 PM ET
I'm curious to how Marner plays out. I get the 10 mil but how does Marner make more than Kucherov at 9.5? I think there is more comparables for high end wingers than there was for Matthews.

Gaudreau only makes 6.75, similar for Pastrnak.

If Marner shouldn't take a penny less than 10, I assume you agree neither should Point or Rantanen?

- Blazed


As a Hawks fan I've been down this road a lot over the past bunch of years - I get it - it sux for the fans of the team looking at what probably needs to happen because of the Cap.

If you haven't already - go the the CapFriendly site and look down the 2019/20 column. You will see the Leafs have 8 forwards under contract for 2019/20 (Tavares, Nylander, Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Matthews, and Gauthier) and their total cap hit is $45.3M. Then look at the d-men where there are 5 players under contract for 2019/20 (Reilly, Zaitsev, Muzzin, Dermott, Holl) and their total cap hit is $15M. Andersen's cap hit is $5M and Horton's is $5.3M.

That totals up to $70.6M. Even if you fill out the d-corps with a couple ELC guys the total will be at least $72M. The high end estimate for the 2019/20 cap is $83M - that leave $11M to resign Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson and a couple "cheapie" forwards to fill out the 22-man roster.

I posted somewhere that maybe Marleau retires if the Leafs win the Cup - that would free up $6.2M - probably still not enough but a big help.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Feb 21 @ 6:46 PM ET
As a Hawks fan I've been down this road a lot over the past bunch of years - I get it - it sux for the fans of the team looking at what probably needs to happen because of the Cap.

If you haven't already - go the the CapFriendly site and look down the 2019/20 column. You will see the Leafs have 8 forwards under contract for 2019/20 (Tavares, Nylander, Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Matthews, and Gauthier) and their total cap hit is $45.3M. Then look at the d-men where there are 5 players under contract for 2019/20 (Reilly, Zaitsev, Muzzin, Dermott, Holl) and their total cap hit is $15M. Andersen's cap hit is $5M and Horton's is $5.3M.

That totals up to $70.6M. Even if you fill out the d-corps with a couple ELC guys the total will be at least $72M. The high end estimate for the 2019/20 cap is $83M - that leave $11M to resign Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson and a couple "cheapie" forwards to fill out the 22-man roster.

I posted somewhere that maybe Marleau retires if the Leafs win the Cup - that would free up $6.2M - probably still not enough but a big help.

- EbonyRaptor


Welcome to Chicago Marleau, don't see him leaving 6 mil on the table, and whomever the sweetner might be.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 21 @ 6:47 PM ET
As a Hawks fan I've been down this road a lot over the past bunch of years - I get it - it sux for the fans of the team looking at what probably needs to happen because of the Cap.

If you haven't already - go the the CapFriendly site and look down the 2019/20 column. You will see the Leafs have 8 forwards under contract for 2019/20 (Tavares, Nylander, Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Matthews, and Gauthier) and their total cap hit is $45.3M. Then look at the d-men where there are 5 players under contract for 2019/20 (Reilly, Zaitsev, Muzzin, Dermott, Holl) and their total cap hit is $15M. Andersen's cap hit is $5M and Horton's is $5.3M.

That totals up to $70.6M. Even if you fill out the d-corps with a couple ELC guys the total will be at least $72M. The high end estimate for the 2019/20 cap is $83M - that leave $11M to resign Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson and a couple "cheapie" forwards to fill out the 22-man roster.

I posted somewhere that maybe Marleau retires if the Leafs win the Cup - that would free up $6.2M - probably still not enough but a big help.

- EbonyRaptor


And $1.2 million retained for Kessel still on the books
Blazed
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.18.2012

Feb 21 @ 6:48 PM ET
So Marner should be signing for what Matthews signed for then. Works for me.
- Elbows15


Lol no, you're not understanding my point.

When Kane was putting up his monster 100+ point seasons, like he is now, if Toews also had that level of production he would've been paid more than Kane.

However so much emphasis is put on the financial value of a two-way center that Toews and Kane are paid the same despite Kane having nearly 200 more points over the same time frame.

The Leafs situation is different. Matthews actually (the two-way center with more value) actually still has a higher PPG (career 0.98 vs 0.91). So Matthews makes more than Marner.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:49 PM ET
At the time wasn't Kane and Toews deal up there? 6.3 or 6.5 at the time part of the reason we could only keep 9 players? And technically they didn't win anything until after that deal was signed, if memory serves me correctly.
- BetweenTheDots

They won the first Cup while still on their ELCs. The next 2 on their 2nd contract.
Though both of their extensions were signed during Cup seasons. Their extension played a part in the purge for sure. Both of them hitting performance bonuses on their ELC was also a factor.

Plus, Tallon screwing up the QO to some players made them UFA and the Hawks signed them higher than they would have had to if they were RFAs.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:52 PM ET
As a Hawks fan I've been down this road a lot over the past bunch of years - I get it - it sux for the fans of the team looking at what probably needs to happen because of the Cap.

If you haven't already - go the the CapFriendly site and look down the 2019/20 column. You will see the Leafs have 8 forwards under contract for 2019/20 (Tavares, Nylander, Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Matthews, and Gauthier) and their total cap hit is $45.3M. Then look at the d-men where there are 5 players under contract for 2019/20 (Reilly, Zaitsev, Muzzin, Dermott, Holl) and their total cap hit is $15M. Andersen's cap hit is $5M and Horton's is $5.3M.

That totals up to $70.6M. Even if you fill out the d-corps with a couple ELC guys the total will be at least $72M. The high end estimate for the 2019/20 cap is $83M - that leave $11M to resign Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson and a couple "cheapie" forwards to fill out the 22-man roster.

I posted somewhere that maybe Marleau retires if the Leafs win the Cup - that would free up $6.2M - probably still not enough but a big help.

- EbonyRaptor


Can't see Marleau passing up $6.2.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Feb 21 @ 6:52 PM ET
Stan’s big trade deadline acquisition: Josh Ho-Sang.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:52 PM ET
Lol no, you're not understanding my point.

When Kane was putting up his monster 100+ point seasons, like he is now, is Toews also had that level of production he would've been paid more than Kane.

However so much emphasis is put on the financial value of a two-way center that Toews and Kane are paid the same despite Kane having nearly 200 more points over the same time frame.

The Leafs situation is different. Matthews actually (the two-way center with more value) actually still has a higher PPG (career 0.98 vs 0.91). So Matthews makes more than Marner.

- Blazed

Well, Kane has actually only had 1 100+ season. Fine, Marner at 10.5 works for me too.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Feb 21 @ 6:53 PM ET
Cause Tallon is terrible at cap management. Not so hot at talent evaluation, either.
- Elbows15


Since Florida's other hockey team is mentioned, just want to segway about an intriguing player who has injury historionics: namely Barkov. Incredible talented player probably gets 30 goals if - you guessed it - he remains healthy. Just wonder if he has one really great point total season and remainder of career is still good but filled with injury and less than big star point totals.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Feb 21 @ 6:53 PM ET
Don't know if you read the piece on Ray Emery. Wasn't one of the Chicago writers (Powers or Lazerus), but was also really well done and worth a read.
- HawkintheD


Almost everything written by The Athletic crew is great (especially Powers).
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