Sam Hitchcock: Don't Knock It Till You've Tried It

Sam / Lightning bloggers:

This offseason, trade clauses aside, you’re going to need to free up some cap space. I hope we can all agree on that.

What are your thoughts on Janmark and Ritchie from Dallas for Callahan and Miller? You get serviceable RFAs and tons of cap space and Miller gets to return to 2C where he’s a natural fit and Callahan would actually play in Dallas as well

Most who I’ve heard from thus far from other teams are basically saying they’d give you a 3rd round pick and an AHL player, to which I think is not nearly enough

Curious on your thoughts

Sam / Lightning bloggers:

This offseason, trade clauses aside, you’re going to need to free up some cap space. I hope we can all agree on that.

What are your thoughts on Janmark and Ritchie from Dallas for Callahan and Miller? You get serviceable RFAs and tons of cap space and Miller gets to return to 2C where he’s a natural fit and Callahan would actually play in Dallas as well

Most who I’ve heard from thus far from other teams are basically saying they’d give you a 3rd round pick and an AHL player, to which I think is not nearly enough

Curious on your thoughts
- WSCTeton17

This offseason Callahan will surely be moved out, it has to happen to keep the core together. He has a limited NTC of 15 teams. Miller has a limited NTC list of 10 teams. Both can be moved but do both really need to be moved. I have played around with capfriendly a ton and if the Lightning can move all of Callahan's contract they can field a full team at 83M cap even with a Point extension in the 6yr @ 7-8M dollar range.

I think Miller is worth way more then throwing in on a cap dump of Callahan. Miller is a 50-60pt Power Forward who can play all three positions. If he is traded the return will be a Dman preferably RD which is the biggest weakness of the team.

I would rather move Callahan on his own, a team that needs floor cap will take him, a prospect and a better pick for a worse pick and he is off the team. I would keep Miller if a Dman trade can't happen and use the forward depth that the Lightning have stock piled down in the AHL instead of taking on more forwards.

I watch the stars because I like Benn and Bishop and what I see is Mattias Janmark playing as a top six player but his scoring has continually regressed. Maybe a change of scenery would do him good. But Ritchie has been a healthily scratch quite a bit and his scoring regression has been even worse.

So short answer is no I would not make that trade because of Miller being in it.

This offseason Callahan will surely be moved out, it has to happen to keep the core together. He has a limited NTC of 15 teams. Miller has a limited NTC list of 10 teams. Both can be moved but do both really need to be moved. I have played around with capfriendly a ton and if the Lightning can move all of Callahan's contract they can field a full team at 83M cap even with a Point extension in the 6yr @ 7-8M dollar range.

I think Miller is worth way more then throwing in on a cap dump of Callahan. Miller is a 50-60pt Power Forward who can play all three positions. If he is traded the return will be a Dman preferably RD which is the biggest weakness of the team.

I would rather move Callahan on his own, a team that needs floor cap will take him, a prospect and a better pick for a worse pick and he is off the team. I would keep Miller if a Dman trade can't happen and use the forward depth that the Lightning have stock piled down in the AHL instead of taking on more forwards.

I watch the stars because I like Benn and Bishop and what I see is Mattias Janmark playing as a top six player but his scoring has continually regressed. Maybe a change of scenery would do him good. But Ritchie has been a healthily scratch quite a bit and his scoring regression has been even worse.

So short answer is no I would not make that trade because of Miller being in it.
- stammerman

Fair points. Here’s a fair question though, what team is hurting to meet the floor next season? The only way that’s Ottawa is if they strike out on all their free agents, this free agent class is also pretty strong mind you

My answer is none. I don’t think their are any teams this season that will struggle to hit the floor and those teams that are will exact a toll to take Callahan on his own. My guess is at least a 2nd rounder if not more. I think Dallas might be willing to part with one of their young defenders but I think the deal might get interesting from their as they’re obviously high on their D

Fair points. Here’s a fair question though, what team is hurting to meet the floor next season? The only way that’s Ottawa is if they strike out on all their free agents, this free agent class is also pretty strong mind you

My answer is none. I don’t think their are any teams this season that will struggle to hit the floor and those teams that are will exact a toll to take Callahan on his own. My guess is at least a 2nd rounder if not more. I think Dallas might be willing to part with one of their young defenders but I think the deal might get interesting from their as they’re obviously high on their D
- WSCTeton17

Last year the Avs took on Orpik and Grubauer for a third. They got the player they wanted in Grubauer and bought out Orpik because they had a buyout to burn. It's hard to judge a goalie to a forward like Miller in trades but teams will make trades for cap dumps if it suits their needs. Even if its not to get to the cap floor plenty of teams don't spend to the cap and have room to take on 1 year of Callahan for a few assets like prospect and picks. I just feel if it has to be a roster player to go with Callahan it would not be Miller unless the return is a NHL dman. What dman would you be willing to give up, preferably a RD?

I personally think the Hurricanes would take Miller right now for say Justin Faulk or Brett Pesce. They are dying for a player like him and have RD men to trade. I think the value is pretty fair as well.

Last year the Avs took on Orpik and Grubauer for a third. They got the player they wanted in Grubauer and bought out Orpik because they had a buyout to burn. It's hard to judge a goalie to a forward like Miller in trades but teams will make trades for cap dumps if it suits their needs. Even if its not to get to the cap floor plenty of teams don't spend to the cap and have room to take on 1 year of Callahan for a few assets like prospect and picks. I just feel if it has to be a roster player to go with Callahan it would not be Miller unless the return is a NHL dman. What dman would you be willing to give up, preferably a RD?

I personally think the Hurricanes would take Miller right now for say Justin Faulk or Brett Pesce. They are dying for a player like him and have RD men to trade. I think the value is pretty fair as well.
- stammerman

That’s a great point, I think Carolina is a good trade partner as well

I think there’s a big difference in Orpik and Callahan though. Orpik is sooo replaceable. He’s awful. Callahan is getting 4th line level minutes but is producing at a 3rd line rate and is on pace for 24 points, which could be 30 with more minutes on another team. He still brings a lot to the table, he just has an awful cap hit. I still think teams will exact a toll to take him on, but I don’t think it’ll be as bad as many think. I think Carolina would do Faulk for Miller all day long

I chose Miller because he has a ton of value, has potential to possibly blossom into a 60-65 point player with more minutes, and he’s honestly kind of a luxury. That doesn’t diminish his value, but taking on Callahan does

Going back to the Orpik trade: I don’t think it’s the best example. For whatever reason the Avs seemed to be targeting Grubauer. Maybe preliminary talks with agents for a guy like Hutton didn’t go over well? Idk but them sending a 2nd back to the Capitals was extremely surprising in my mind

I understand the desire to not want to let go of players easily, but it’s certainly going to cost you something. Grubauer had a .923 sv% when he was dealt, that’s certainly not anything to sneeze at. Time will tell how it shakes out, should be fun

That’s a great point, I think Carolina is a good trade partner as well

I think there’s a big difference in Orpik and Callahan though. Orpik is sooo replaceable. He’s awful. Callahan is getting 4th line level minutes but is producing at a 3rd line rate and is on pace for 24 points, which could be 30 with more minutes on another team. He still brings a lot to the table, he just has an awful cap hit. I still think teams will exact a toll to take him on, but I don’t think it’ll be as bad as many think. I think Carolina would do Faulk for Miller all day long

I chose Miller because he has a ton of value, has potential to possibly blossom into a 60-65 point player with more minutes, and he’s honestly kind of a luxury. That doesn’t diminish his value, but taking on Callahan does

Going back to the Orpik trade: I don’t think it’s the best example. For whatever reason the Avs seemed to be targeting Grubauer. Maybe preliminary talks with agents for a guy like Hutton didn’t go over well? Idk but them sending a 2nd back to the Capitals was extremely surprising in my mind

I understand the desire to not want to let go of players easily, but it’s certainly going to cost you something. Grubauer had a .923 sv% when he was dealt, that’s certainly not anything to sneeze at. Time will tell how it shakes out, should be fun
- WSCTeton17

Grubauer was the hottest goalie-option available last year. Had a great season, fairly young and was perfect for a 1A/1B role. Would have fetched a 1st+ if not Orpik was included.

I think you have great points about Cally. He would also fetch a nice return as a rental at next years TDL. Maybe Rangers would take him back with a pick. They have some UFAs who are uncertain of resigning.

Grubauer was the hottest goalie-option available last year. Had a great season, fairly young and was perfect for a 1A/1B role. Would have fetched a 1st+ if not Orpik was included.

I think you have great points about Cally. He would also fetch a nice return as a rental at next years TDL. Maybe Rangers would take him back with a pick. They have some UFAs who are uncertain of resigning.
- Cloud

Goalies are so year to year though. He had only played 100 games prior to this season, most was last year at 35 which is obviously decent but Holtby struggled. His numbers aren’t exactly sparkling this season either

The goalie crop was decent this past offseason and this next offseason there’s quite a few options on the market. Lehtonen had a 912 last year and he left for Europe. Different year obviously but that 912 would be 22nd right now tied with Ben Hutton. That’s certainly worth a couple million on a prove yourself contract. I just made a list for some other guy, not the strongest crop this year but there was still Hutton, Lehner, Mrazek, Johnson, Khudobin, Halak. It was a prettt long list and this years list which includes Varly also includes Talbot, Lehner, Bobrovsky etc etc. it’s a nice juicy list this year Bernier, Howard also come to mind. The Avs certainly could’ve gotten a journeyman backup for a year and gone for one of these bigger names or they could’ve enjoyed the resurgent Lehner possibly. Lots of what ifs but the options existed and you could’ve retained your 2nd rounder and not bought out Orpik

Goalies are so year to year though. He had only played 100 games prior to this season, most was last year at 35 which is obviously decent but Holtby struggled. His numbers aren’t exactly sparkling this season either

The goalie crop was decent this past offseason and this next offseason there’s quite a few options on the market. Lehtonen had a 912 last year and he left for Europe. Different year obviously but that 912 would be 22nd right now tied with Ben Hutton. That’s certainly worth a couple million on a prove yourself contract. I just made a list for some other guy, not the strongest crop this year but there was still Hutton, Lehner, Mrazek, Johnson, Khudobin, Halak. It was a prettt long list and this years list which includes Varly also includes Talbot, Lehner, Bobrovsky etc etc. it’s a nice juicy list this year Bernier, Howard also come to mind. The Avs certainly could’ve gotten a journeyman backup for a year and gone for one of these bigger names or they could’ve enjoyed the resurgent Lehner possibly. Lots of what ifs but the options existed and you could’ve retained your 2nd rounder and not bought out Orpik
- WSCTeton17

Difference with most of those guys you are listing is that they have gotten chances to be a #1 and did not really stick. Grub could have been a guy who ran with it. Also the age difference is a big factor. With Grub you could get 7-8 years of #1 services. And, you can not know how the market a year ahead will look like. You can only consider your situation right now.

I am not defending that deal, but it made sense for Avs. They showed that they where better then everyone thought but had a questionmark in goal. If you only spend cash and empty capspace then a 2nd for Grub is pretty good asset managment, I think.

Difference with most of those guys you are listing is that they have gotten chances to be a #1 and did not really stick. Grub could have been a guy who ran with it. Also the age difference is a big factor. With Grub you could get 7-8 years of #1 services. And, you can not know how the market a year ahead will look like. You can only consider your situation right now.

I am not defending that deal, but it made sense for Avs. They showed that they where better then everyone thought but had a questionmark in goal. If you only spend cash and empty capspace then a 2nd for Grub is pretty good asset managment, I think.
- Cloud

If they spent nothing but a little bit more of a cap hit they could’ve gotten Hutton who’s in a similar situation but older, more proven you could argue and they’d likely be a little higher in the standings. Shoulda, coulda, woulda. I think they let the Caps off too easy by sending a 2nd back in the deal.

Cam Talbot had a much better, but shorter sample size and went for like a 2nd, 3rd, and a 7th. Even then goalies don’t usually hold a ton of trade value (historically). Somewhat similar situation for Jones who eventually went for a late first and Kuraly, a former 5th rounder that hasn’t done a ton at the NHL level (yet)

Time will tell but so far it seemed like a little bit of a gamble and it hasn’t exactly paid immediate dividends yet. I remember at the time all the analysts were clamoring how WSH got off without giving up their 1st or a guy like Vrana in the deal

I would be intrigued to see Stamkos and Point play together. Personally I love Gourde and Point together so I would love to see Stamkos, Point, Gourde. Miller on that line could work too. Also bonus...that would leave for a Triplet reunion!

Last year I couldn't stand Hedman and Sergachev together. The chemistry just seemed really bad! This year they seem to be clicking more! Plus, Stralman needs to be bumped down. Lets see how Sergachev handles more minutes.


No matter who you put at center, I do not want to see Kuch and Gourde. I love Gourde's scrappiness and he is a great front net presence but I'd rather have Miller be Kucherov's net from presence. Better stick handling and passing than Gourde.


The line I'd like to see for a little bit is Palat, Stamkos, Erne. I think opposing teams would lose Erne and be able to finish chances.

Sam / Lightning bloggers:

This offseason, trade clauses aside, you’re going to need to free up some cap space. I hope we can all agree on that.

What are your thoughts on Janmark and Ritchie from Dallas for Callahan and Miller? You get serviceable RFAs and tons of cap space and Miller gets to return to 2C where he’s a natural fit and Callahan would actually play in Dallas as well

Most who I’ve heard from thus far from other teams are basically saying they’d give you a 3rd round pick and an AHL player, to which I think is not nearly enough

Curious on your thoughts
- WSCTeton17

I'm not sure if Callahan has to be moved...do agree it's probably best for Tampa but he has one year after this left on his deal. The Lightning free up over $10m of cap space with the three D coming off. Say they give Stralman a deal to bring him back for around $4m, that's $6m of cap space with the D. Bring up Foote and then grow the cap I think you can pay Point plus keep Callahan. Now would it be better to move on from that contract and use it elsewhere, sure but not a need. I think we can find a lot of 3rd and 4th line guys who want to come to Tampa now to round out a roster.

I'm not sure if Callahan has to be moved...do agree it's probably best for Tampa but he has one year after this left on his deal. The Lightning free up over $10m of cap space with the three D coming off. Say they give Stralman a deal to bring him back for around $4m, that's $6m of cap space with the D. Bring up Foote and then grow the cap I think you can pay Point plus keep Callahan. Now would it be better to move on from that contract and use it elsewhere, sure but not a need. I think we can find a lot of 3rd and 4th line guys who want to come to Tampa now to round out a roster.
- Kucherovski

Been looking at the capfriendly site. TB has 16 players signed for next year with 6.3M in cap space. Let's say the cap goes up 3.5M next year so let's round up the cap space to $10M.

4M to Stralman as you say. Point to get 6M. There goes the 10M. Still have to sign 4 or 5 more players. Even at ELC salaries that's about 4M. I think some player movement has to take place for the Lightning to fit under the cap next year.

Edit - Could be Callahan, could be someone else.

Sam / Lightning bloggers:

This offseason, trade clauses aside, you’re going to need to free up some cap space. I hope we can all agree on that.

What are your thoughts on Janmark and Ritchie from Dallas for Callahan and Miller? You get serviceable RFAs and tons of cap space and Miller gets to return to 2C where he’s a natural fit and Callahan would actually play in Dallas as well

Most who I’ve heard from thus far from other teams are basically saying they’d give you a 3rd round pick and an AHL player, to which I think is not nearly enough

Curious on your thoughts

Done. No take backs!

Here's why :

Yes, the Bolts need to shed some salary, but their cap situation is not exactly dire either. Vinik spends to the cap, the cap is increasing, and the Bolts have some contracts coming off the books that can be easily replaced (Girardi for example - I doubt he gets another contract). If Coburn and Stralman won't take team-friendly terms, then those are replaceable as well with cheaper options.

Point will go to the bank either way, but he will also take a reasonable deal like Stamkos, Hedman, and Kucherov did. He could also be bridged and kick the can down the road for a couple more seasons.

So there is no dire need to dump tons of cap in Tampa. But, shedding a couple of ugly contracts would be nice.

I would give up Callahan for a bag of pucks if zero salary is retained. I am not entirely sold on Miller yet, so I would be willing to deal him at this point if it meant we get to comfortably keep Point and Vasi when their agents come calling.

I don't even know much about Janmark and Ritchie, but I would take this deal.

Nice writeup Sam.

I'd like to see more of Hedman and Sergachev together. Also, pair him with others as need or desire arises. Hedman is a towering Swedish warhorse in his prime. He can carry Girardi around for crying out loud. He can teach young d-men the ropes and clean up their mess when they poop the bed. It would benefit everyone involved. Hedman is that good. Let's take advantage of it.

McDonagh gives the Bolts the freedom to experiment with Hedman.

I think Gourde is best suited for 3rd-line and sparing PP2/PK usage.

Cap issues thoughts :

Next season, Girardi, Coburn, Stralman and a buyout come off the books. I forget which buyout it is, maybe Carle.

Let's be honest, we can fill Girardi's spot with a ELC or replacement-level player. That saves some money right off the bat.

If Coburn and Stralman will accept team-friendly deals with short term and low cap-hits, then keep them. If not, both are on the wrong end of the age curve and can be replaced. Foote is not quite ready for primetime, but Cernak appears to be. The Bolts cupboard of D-prospects is not overflowing, but it's not bare either. Replacements for all three of Girardi, Coburn, and Stralman could all be found easily with significant savings over their current cap hits.

Callahan only has one more season left after this one - moving him would be great, but that albatross is finally about to fly away, so the need is not dire.

One area of need I think the Lighting do have is goaltender depth. We have zilch after Domingue, and let's be honest again - Domingue is a walking heart attack. He only racked up wins because the Bolts were on a historic rampage scoring their problems into submission.

I have an Idea for Tampa...

Micheal Ferland and Justin Faulk for J.T. Miller and a pick or two.

Tampa gets short term cap relief and upgrades the D for the playoff push without sacrificing TOO much up front, and Carolina opens up a needed D spot while getting another versatile forward at a reasonable cap hit.

Johnson - Point - Kucherov
Ferland - Stamkos - Gourde
Killorn - Cirelli - Palat
Erne - Paquette - Callahan

Hedman - Cernak
McDonagh - Faulk
Sergachev - Stralman
Girardi

I have an Idea for Tampa...

Micheal Ferland and Justin Faulk for J.T. Miller and a pick or two.

Tampa gets short term cap relief and upgrades the D for the playoff push without sacrificing TOO much up front, and Carolina opens up a needed D spot while getting another versatile forward at a reasonable cap hit.

Johnson - Point - Kucherov
Ferland - Stamkos - Gourde
Killorn - Cirelli - Palat
Erne - Paquette - Callahan

Hedman - Cernak
McDonagh - Faulk
Sergachev - Stralman
Girardi
- BINGO!

We're saving our money for Karlsson!
Seriously though I like the idea of Miller for Faulk. Especially since I don't think the Bolts are using Miller to his full potential right now. I don't know enough about Ferland this year to say its worth bringing him in and eating away at our performance bonus cap room.

We're saving our money for Karlsson!
Seriously though I like the idea of Miller for Faulk. Especially since I don't think the Bolts are using Miller to his full potential right now. I don't know enough about Ferland this year to say its worth bringing him in and eating away at our performance bonus cap room.
- LightningMcKing

His cap hit is low enough that he'll actually only cost you like $300k against the salary cap because deadline acquisitions are prorated anyway.

Big, Physical, 20~ goal potential

I have an Idea for Tampa...

Micheal Ferland and Justin Faulk for J.T. Miller and a pick or two.

Tampa gets short term cap relief and upgrades the D for the playoff push without sacrificing TOO much up front, and Carolina opens up a needed D spot while getting another versatile forward at a reasonable cap hit.

Johnson - Point - Kucherov
Ferland - Stamkos - Gourde
Killorn - Cirelli - Palat
Erne - Paquette - Callahan

Hedman - Cernak
McDonagh - Faulk
Sergachev - Stralman
Girardi
- BINGO!

I'd take this deal. But, I think you are selling yourself short a bit. Miller and Ferland are almost a wash, so it's pretty much some picks for Faulk. Faulk is solid and could probably fetch at premium close to the deadline.