Michael Pachla: Sabres at the half-way point after a gutsy win over FLA

1st

What if skinner shoots twice as much next year?

70 goals at 15%?
- Boss34

He’s on pace for about 250 shots this season
No one gets to 500 shots
No one even gets to 400

300 would even be a reach
That would be his career high
But Skinner’s shooting% isn’t sustainable
His previous best was 14.4% as a rookie
Last year, he was 8.7%

So I’m thinking 15% (give or take) is a pretty reasonable expectation moving forward

That would mean somewhere in the range of 35-40 goals instead of the 50+ he’s probably gonna get this year

So if it’s around 35goals or so,
are we still happy with Skinner at 8.5mil per?

good 2 points for the team without captain jack... now play a solid road game and get a point in boston boys!

I was just told the Sabres and Skinner are finally getting a little more serious about an extension. The feeling prior to this season was that Skinner would be testing free agency...for certain...Now however, there are actual talks going on to extend Skinner in Buffalo...

What kind of offer would it take to keep Skinner in Buffalo? My source says in the 9.5 per range...Currently Jeff Skinner is having the season of his life with 28 goals already...but many feel that this season isn't the norm for Skinner and to put him into the Eichel range of salary is insane

-Ek

*from the main page

We can’t go to 9.5mil imo
That’s too much
8.5 per might even be pushing it

He’s on pace for about 250 shots this season
No one gets to 500 shots
No one even gets to 400

300 would even be a reach
That would be his career high
But Skinner’s shooting% isn’t sustainable
His previous best was 14.4% as a rookie
Last year, he was 8.7%

So I’m thinking 15% (give or take) is a pretty reasonable expectation moving forward

That would mean somewhere in the range of 35-40 goals instead of the 50+ he’s probably gonna get this year

So if it’s around 35goals or so,
are we still happy with Skinner at 8.5mil per?
- jdfitz77

I am thrilled with it. Compared to paying 21 and 29 obsene money for very little production, 53 is a bargain.

He’s on pace for about 250 shots this season
No one gets to 500 shots
No one even gets to 400

300 would even be a reach
That would be his career high
But Skinner’s shooting% isn’t sustainable
His previous best was 14.4% as a rookie
Last year, he was 8.7%

So I’m thinking 15% (give or take) is a pretty reasonable expectation moving forward

That would mean somewhere in the range of 35-40 goals instead of the 50+ he’s probably gonna get this year

So if it’s around 35goals or so,
are we still happy with Skinner at 8.5mil per?
- jdfitz77

I feel 8.50 Large is a little steep but prob right, I would be more happy with 7.75-8, if Skinner stays healthy and can put up 4 shots per game, he will score between 30-35 at 10% SP, at 15% he is scoring 45-50 goals. I would be happy with it at 8.50 large...

I feel 8.50 Large is a little steep but prob right, I would be more happy with 7.75-8, if Skinner stays healthy and can put up 4 shots per game, he will score between 30-35 at 10% SP, at 15% he is scoring 45-50 goals. I would be happy with it at 8.50 large...
- hehateme

He isn’t an assist guy, so if his shooting % does come back down to earth,
we’re looking at more like a 60 point player

At 8mil +, 60pts isn’t that great
So we’d need him to stay above 40goals imo

He’s not terrible defensively like ppl said when he was with Carolina,
but he is kind of a one dimensional player
Obviously scoring goals is very, very important though-
and he is a heck of a finisher

He’s on pace for about 250 shots this season
No one gets to 500 shots
No one even gets to 400

300 would even be a reach
That would be his career high
But Skinner’s shooting% isn’t sustainable
His previous best was 14.4% as a rookie
Last year, he was 8.7%

So I’m thinking 15% (give or take) is a pretty reasonable expectation moving forward

That would mean somewhere in the range of 35-40 goals instead of the 50+ he’s probably gonna get this year

So if it’s around 35goals or so,
are we still happy with Skinner at 8.5mil per?
- jdfitz77

I'm torn on this. On one hand, giving wingers massive deals like this unless they are on the correct end of elite (i.e. Patrick Kane), usually ends up a disaster. Even giving mid to above average wingers long term deals ends up being a move a team regrets before the contract is half over. The Sabres did that twice with Pominville around 2009-2010 and Okposo in 2015. That said, your stars need players they can play with, and Skinner is definitely that. I look at Pittsburgh and how they struggled to find a winger that could skate with Crosby until James Neal came along. As a general rule, I think you prefer the cap flexibility, but if you are smart everywhere else, you probably could make this work. Remember, it's not just about being able to fit under the cap. It's about being able to fit under the cap and still having enough room to improve.

I am thrilled with it. Compared to paying 21 and 29 obsene money for very little production, 53 is a bargain.
- LandlordTom

Sure...
but Pommer is gone (or much cheaper) after this year
And one would assume we are trying to find a way to dump Okposo

I’m not gonna base what Skinner should be getting paid based on those 2 horrible contracts (or any other bad ones)

The Sabres will be in tough tomorrow.

Still... Blessing, not a curse

Top 5 paid LW per Capfriendly
Ovie $9.5m
Benn $9.5m
Parise $7.5m
Bobby Ryan $7.25m (listed as both RW/LW)
JVR $7m

All are older than Skinner and all signed when the Cap was lower than it will be next year. $8.5m seems fair for sure.

I'm torn on this. On one hand, giving wingers massive deals like this unless they are on the correct end of elite (i.e. Patrick Kane), usually ends up a disaster. Even giving mid to above average wingers long term deals ends up being a move a team regrets before the contract is half over. The Sabres did that twice with Pominville around 2009-2010 and Okposo in 2015. That said, you're stars need players they can play with, and Skinner is definitely that. I look at Pittsburgh and how they struggled to find a winger that could skate with Crosby until James Neal came along. As a general rule, I think you prefer the cap flexibility, but if you are smart everywhere else, you probably could make this work. Remember, it's not just about being able to fit under the cap. It's about being able to fit under the cap and still having enough room to improve.
- buffalofan19

Nice post

Don’t get me wrong...
i love what Skinner brings to the table as a goal scorer
And we desperately needed that
So i definitely want to keep him

I just think we gotta prepare for him to regress a little
So i don’t wanna have to overpay him too much

I could live with 8.5per
But if he drops back down to 35ish goals & 20ish assists...
that’s a lot of salary for near 60pts

I think we almost have to sign him though
Can’t even imagine what our offense looks like this year without him

He isn’t an assist guy, so if his shooting % does come back down to earth,
we’re looking at more like a 60 point player

At 8mil +, 60pts isn’t that great
So we’d need him to stay above 40goals imo

He’s not terrible defensively like ppl said when he was with Carolina,
but he is kind of a one dimensional player
Obviously scoring goals is very, very important though-
and he is a heck of a finisher
- jdfitz77

it is so hard to predict what a player is going to do long term. Especially a first year player with our team. I would imagine that the chemistry Eichle and Skinner have is not going to just up and leave, so thinking as Jbotts, I am betting on Skinner being a 35-40 goal guy with 20-30 assist, and I'm not concerned with helpers at all, that is what Jack and Sam are for. Skinner is a finisher. So based on that I really don't think 8.50 large is off, even-though I would like to be under 8 mil for Skinner.

He isn’t an assist guy, so if his shooting % does come back down to earth,
we’re looking at more like a 60 point player

At 8mil +, 60pts isn’t that great
So we’d need him to stay above 40goals imo

He’s not terrible defensively like ppl said when he was with Carolina,
but he is kind of a one dimensional player
Obviously scoring goals is very, very important though-
and he is a heck of a finisher
- jdfitz77

It all comes down to term. If it's 8 years, you'd better hope it isn't 8.5M. Not many 35 year olds not named Ovie scoring goals like that any more.

it is so hard to predict what a player is going to do long term. Especially a first year player with our team. I would imagine that the chemistry Eichle and Skinner have is not going to just up and leave, so thinking as Jbotts, I am betting on Skinner being a 35-40 goal guy with 20-30 assist, and I'm not concerned with helpers at all, that is what Jack and Sam are for. Skinner is a finisher. So based on that I really don't think 8.50 large is off, even-though I would like to be under 8 mil for Skinner.
- hehateme

Yeah,
that all makes sense to me

Especially considering how badly we do need “finishers”

Nice post

Don’t get me wrong...
i love what Skinner brings to the table as a goal scorer
And we desperately needed that
So i definitely want to keep him

I just think we gotta prepare for him to regress a little
So i don’t wanna have to overpay him too much

I could live with 8.5per
But if he drops back down to 35ish goals & 20ish assists...
that’s a lot of salary for near 60pts

I think we almost have to sign him though
Can’t even imagine what our offense looks like this year without him
- jdfitz77

They've put themselves in a situation where they almost have to sign him. As far as regression goes, if Jason Pominville can have spurts of production playing next to Eichel, then I can't imagine Skinner's regression will hurt too much until maybe later in the contract. The window for this team to win a cup, I think, is going to be about 4 or 5 years. If they don't get one by then, with Dahlin and probably Mittelstadt getting big deals in addition to Skinner, they could have some problems.

Yeah,
that all makes sense to me

Especially considering how badly we do need “finishers”
- jdfitz77

Boy do we ever!!!

It all comes down to term. If it's 8 years, you'd better hope it isn't 8.5M. Not many 35 year olds not named Ovie scoring goals like that any more.
- RhinoFan

If an 8 year deal helps land the Sabres a Cup in years 2-5, I can stomach the problem that will be the albatross at age 35. It's the cost of doing business, but also about finding the right investment. Skinner might be that. I have much more faith in that than I ever did with Pominville or Okposo when their deals were signed.

They've put themselves in a situation where they almost have to sign him. As far as regression goes, if Jason Pominville can have spurts of production playing next to Eichel, then I can't imagine Skinner's regression will hurt too much until maybe later in the contract. The window for this team to win a cup, I think, is going to be about 4 or 5 years. If they don't get one by then, with Dahlin and probably Mittelstadt getting big deals in addition to Skinner, they could have some problems.
- buffalofan19

The Cap will keep going up though
So the key moving forward will be not signing/acquiring contracts like Okposo
Gotta stay away from long term deals like that & we’ll be just fine

good 2 points for the team without captain jack... now play a solid road game and get a point in boston boys!
- tyler46

screw that, I want a win...with Ullmark in net

Carry over from last blog, forgive me.
------------------------------------
That's my friend, Jared, training him. I know many on here don't care for Paul, but after his wife passed away, he really went downhill. He's made huge strides.
- Powerslave

I applaud Paul.
Toughest moments in one's life are when you permanently lose someone that means everything to you.
I see far too many people talk about material things like they hold some type of value or give you a certain 'status'.
That's the wrong way to look at and live life.
The most valuable things in life are the loved ones around you, your family and friends.

I feel for Paul.
In a way, he lost a huge part of himself (spare me the infantile attempt at humor at that assertion) and what made him, him.
I wish Paul the best and I hope he makes himself the best Paul that he can possibly be.

People need to remember, death is permanent.
Individuals that are more in touch with themselves take death much more critically.
Cut the man some slack. 👍

Boy do we ever!!!
- hehateme

I also wanna see us go after Stone in free agency

He’s also gonna cost us 8mil + though
And that could be dangerous
But he’s a ppg players who is great defensively
Basically the winger version of Bergeron

We could use a guy like that too

I'm torn on this. On one hand, giving wingers massive deals like this unless they are on the correct end of elite (i.e. Patrick Kane), usually ends up a disaster. Even giving mid to above average wingers long term deals ends up being a move a team regrets before the contract is half over. The Sabres did that twice with Pominville around 2009-2010 and Okposo in 2015. That said, your stars need players they can play with, and Skinner is definitely that. I look at Pittsburgh and how they struggled to find a winger that could skate with Crosby until James Neal came along. As a general rule, I think you prefer the cap flexibility, but if you are smart everywhere else, you probably could make this work. Remember, it's not just about being able to fit under the cap. It's about being able to fit under the cap and still having enough room to improve.
- buffalofan19

skinner's got finish and moxie, something we really haven't seen here since briere...there's an energy and confidence about him that's contagious...he's good for the team and there's nothing right now that would lead me to believe anything would change with him