James Tanner: Powerfully Unlucky Coyotes Due for Some Goals and Wins

James Tanner: Powerfully Unlucky Coyotes Due for Some Goals and Wins
- James_Tanner

Mr. Tanner, whats up with Alex Goligoski? 7GP 0G 0A 0P -7... you told us in preseason that this is the best defense in NHL?!

Curious but you said they were missing their best offensive player...in your mind is that Dvorak or Galchenyuk?

Mr. Tanner, whats up with Alex Goligoski? 7GP 0G 0A 0P -7... you told us in preseason that this is the best defense in NHL?!
- VeryModernMan

I did not say it was the best defense in the NHL.

Goligoski has zero points because the forwards haven't scored, it's not exactly a mystery.

Curious but you said they were missing their best offensive player...in your mind is that Dvorak or Galchenyuk?
- Takemedrunkimhome

It's Galchenyuk. It's possibly Clayton Keller, but Galchenyuk has hit 30 before.

I mean, this is one of the best forward groups in the NHL right?

I did not say it was the best defense in the NHL.

Goligoski has zero points because the forwards haven't scored, it's not exactly a mystery.
- James_Tanner

No, but you absolutely said ONE of the best blue lines.

I think the Coyotes are going to start winning some games if they keep playing this way.


How sweet were those two goals by Keller?

No, but you absolutely said ONE of the best blue lines.
- Rinosaur

And it is one of the best blue lines.

OEL is an elite player, Chychrun is on his way to being so, Hjallmerson remains one of the best defensive players in the league, Goligoski is pretty nice to have on the third pairing, and Jason Demers is criminally underrated. \

Oesterle is a great third pairing guy, and even Connauton is halfway decent. The Coyotes might lack flash on the blueline, but they are solid 1-7 group, and I think overall one of the top groups in the league.
\

It's Galchenyuk. It's possibly Clayton Keller, but Galchenyuk has hit 30 before.
- James_Tanner

Galchenyuk hit 30 once in 6 seasons, hit 20 once and every other season was in the teens (his rookie season of 9 was in the shortended year) He averages 50 points per 82 games played. I won't discuss my opinion on his defensive abilities but I guess my point is that if he's the top offensive player on the Coyotes then they're likely going to have more issues

They better get it turned around quickly -- Tanner has then winning the Stanley Cup with one of the best defenses and a great group of forwards. Based on his summer posts, I bet everything on this team winning the Cup. Tanner made it so compelling.

You never have to admit that your team is bad and that your theories about hockey and advanced stats are flawed if you chalk it up to "powerfully" bad luck. You would think that someone who considers himself smarter than most people would recognize how much he fools himself to continue believing what he wants to believe.

I still expect them to make the playoffs.

I remember you predicting they would win the division? But I do agree that I also expect them to make the playoffs

You never have to admit that your team is bad and that your theories about hockey and advanced stats are flawed if you chalk it up to "powerfully" bad luck. You would think that someone who considers himself smarter than most people would recognize how much he fools himself to continue believing what he wants to believe.
- Osprey

I get that we currently live in a society where it is common to assume that the person saying something you don't agree with is stupid, biased or flawed in some way, rather than re-examining what you already believe.

But even knowing that, this comment is frustrating.

As a hockey fan, I am a fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs. I have written about the Coyotes for five or so years, and I've criticized them when I felt it was warranted.

I would never say it was bad luck if I thought it was just that they sucked because I don't really care if they suck.

I also don't care if I'm right or wrong, I have no problem admitting when I am wrong and the sheer amount of stupid things I've said in this column is proof positive of that.

So what if the Coyotes have actually and truly been unlucky?

They are near the top of the league in many of the stats that correlate closely to scoring.

They are missing three key players.

They are shooting 3% when we know with 100% certainty that over a season a team will shoot an absolute bare minimum of 6% (which would also be unlucky, but does happen).

If you factor all this in, it's pretty obvious that they've been unlucky. I don't see how anyone could say otherwise. If you can though, I'll listen if you have any proof.

Mr. Tanner, whats up with Alex Goligoski? 7GP 0G 0A 0P -7... you told us in preseason that this is the best defense in NHL?!
- VeryModernMan

He only said it was top 3.

The Coyotes blue-line, overall, may just be the best in the NHL. And, if the star power of Nashville and Carolina pushes them down to third, well that's pretty damn good too.

You never have to admit that your team is bad and that your theories about hockey and advanced stats are flawed if you chalk it up to "powerfully" bad luck. You would think that someone who considers himself smarter than most people would recognize how much he fools himself to continue believing what he wants to believe.
- Osprey

Yet here you are, replying to his blogs and thus giving him exactly what he wants.

Tanner freely admits he doesn't know much about hockey, so he just posts things that he knows will get people to reply, which is exactly what his boss wants to happen. It's a pretty smart move.

You never have to admit that your team is bad and that your theories about hockey and advanced stats are flawed if you chalk it up to "powerfully" bad luck. You would think that someone who considers himself smarter than most people would recognize how much he fools himself to continue believing what he wants to believe.
- Osprey

he doesn't! - never did!

Yet here you are, replying to his blogs and thus giving him exactly what he wants.

Tanner freely admits he doesn't know much about hockey, so he just posts things that he knows will get people to reply, which is exactly what his boss wants to happen. It's a pretty smart move.
- jmatchett383

I do not freely admit that, you liar. I also do not want people to post ridiculous comments, so you're wrong there too.

The reason they can't score has nothing to do with luck. If no talent losers rifle a bunch of pucks randomly towards the goal they shouldn't expect the same success rate as talented players who pick good opportunities to shoot. Oh and they also pick something else important: corners.

I do not freely admit that, you liar. I also do not want people to post ridiculous comments, so you're wrong there too.
- James_Tanner

Sure James

James Tanner: Powerfully Unlucky Coyotes Due for Some Goals and Wins
- James_Tanner

I'm not sure "Powerfully Unlucky" encompasses any Corsi stats...

Yes the SH% will go up, but by how much? The only Coyotes game I watched this year was against the Sabres and the Coyotes were absolutely dominated, sure they won Corsi, but they had one dangerous chance, and a couple medium danger chances, they were almost exclusively kept to the outside. Hence the abysmal SH%.

Teams also tend to sit back on leads which helps a trailing team, which is always the Coyotes, take more shots. The Coyotes didn't really pull away in SA until the 3rd period, when the Sabres were just sitting on their 2-0 lead. At halfway through the 2nd the Coyotes were ahead by 1 or 2 SA.

I know it's just one game, but I also know that a few of the games the Sabres won Corsi big, they also lost, like in the first game against Boston, they generated a ton of attempts but almost no real chances and they got shutout. And the pattern was the same, it was close all game and then, in the third down 3 the Sabres pulled away because the Bruins were just sitting on their lead.

Corsi is all well and good, but the situations in which they get those attempts matter more than the raw numbers.

And it is one of the best blue lines.

OEL is an elite player, Chychrun is on his way to being so, Hjallmerson remains one of the best defensive players in the league, Goligoski is pretty nice to have on the third pairing, and Jason Demers is criminally underrated. \

Oesterle is a great third pairing guy, and even Connauton is halfway decent. The Coyotes might lack flash on the blueline, but they are solid 1-7 group, and I think overall one of the top groups in the league.
\
- James_Tanner

Jimmy chyrun is not on his way to being an elite dman no matter how many times u say it as he has ways to go

Yes the SH% will go up, but by how much? The only Coyotes game I watched this year was against the Sabres and the Coyotes were absolutely dominated, sure they won Corsi, but they had one dangerous chance, and a couple medium danger chances, they were almost exclusively kept to the outside. Hence the abysmal SH%.

Teams also tend to sit back on leads which helps a trailing team, which is always the Coyotes, take more shots. The Coyotes didn't really pull away in SA until the 3rd period, when the Sabres were just sitting on their 2-0 lead. At halfway through the 2nd the Coyotes were ahead by 1 or 2 SA.

I know it's just one game, but I also know that a few of the games the Sabres won Corsi big, they also lost, like in the first game against Boston, they generated a ton of attempts but almost no real chances and they got shutout. And the pattern was the same, it was close all game and then, in the third down 3 the Sabres pulled away because the Bruins were just sitting on their lead.

Corsi is all well and good, but the situations in which they get those attempts matter more than the raw numbers.
- Wetbandit1

This is why just relying on what you think you see can be deceiving.

The Coyotes dominated the first period with almost 60% possession but finished the period down 2-0. You might think score effects played a big part, but up 2-0 the Sabres played a very even second period.

The Coyotes pressed in the third and had 70% of the shot-attempts.

Overall the Coyotes had possession for 60% of the game. They outshot the Sabres by ten 5v5, and outchanced them by 9.

The Coyotes had 13 high-danger scoring chances vs nine for the Sabres.

Overall, the game was a complete domination by Arizona, and they would have won that game almost every time.

Your eyes clearly told you what you wanted to see, but it was not backed up by the stats, courtesy Naturalstattrick.com